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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 723

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/21/2009 9:42:12 PM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #143
What the hell is Stuff Magazine and why do you keep bringing it up?


I find it's easier to ignore his posts. There's painful posts, and then there's this guy's crap.
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ffmasterjose | Posted 5/21/2009 9:42:42 PM | message detail
Most gamers would say Half-Life 2 is one of two games of the century, huh?

LinkMarioSamus = a Valve employee confirmed

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162/232 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Resident Evil 4 > Zelda: TP | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
MetricTrout | Posted 5/21/2009 9:42:44 PM | message detail
Whoa, what was that?
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/21/2009 9:42:57 PM | message detail
Maybe I'll finally get full points for a match since I had RE4 > TP here.
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transients | Posted 5/21/2009 9:43:59 PM | message detail
yeah, this is between RE4 and TP. KH2's done.
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xyzzy
Gr8CyberMonkey | Posted 5/21/2009 9:44:48 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 5/22/2009 12:42:57 AM | #154
Maybe I'll finally get full points for a match since I had RE4 > TP here.


I have TP > RE4, and I'm in the same boat. I've only gotten full points twice this round.
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The question to everyone's answer.
medicority | Posted 5/21/2009 9:45:01 PM | message detail
Did anyone feel like morrowind was misplaced? Oblivion was a much better game so I wasn't surprised when I saw it in here and doing well, but morrowind was fodder. I would have much rather saw say Baldur's gate 2(ToB was released in 2001)
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/21/2009 9:45:28 PM | message detail
Ha ha ha, I've only watched somebody playing Half-Life 2, though it definetely looks like it deserves all the critical acclaim (best game ever is somewhat of a stretch, perhaps).

Besides, I'm a mostly Nintendo guy, as you can tell from my user name, and I voted for Resident Evil 4.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/21/2009 9:45:54 PM | message detail
RE4 may even have a good enough lead against TP by morning.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: TP > RE4 Points: 151/232
MetricTrout | Posted 5/21/2009 9:48:41 PM | message detail
I would not write off KH2 just yet. RE4 is a dedicated fanbase, and when a debated match comes up, members of a dedicated fanbase tend to anticipate a match and vote once the poll starts. However, that also means that less of them will be available to vote during their normal hours.

In other words, it is possible that RE4 just collapses once the morning vote hits much like Snake did in last year's finals.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/21/2009 9:49:20 PM | message detail
No, KH2 is dead here.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/21/2009 9:49:56 PM | message detail
the only way KH advances now is if one of these top 2 games just collapses
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/21/2009 9:50:26 PM | message detail
RE4 trying to build a lead now.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/21/2009 9:51:00 PM | message detail
RE4 is starting to take off now. I like RE4 right now to win this.
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/21/2009 9:51:16 PM | message detail
Which is sort of what I am saying. That RE4 collapses.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
transients | Posted 5/21/2009 9:52:26 PM | message detail
if KH2 advances, it'll be at TP's expense, not RE4's.
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xyzzy
xp1337 | Posted 5/21/2009 9:52:58 PM | message detail
What kind of lead is RE4 going to need to withstand Zelda's ASV comeback attempt, and does KH2 help it somewhat by "mitigating" Zelda's ability to just destroy the ASV?
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SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
MetricTrout | Posted 5/21/2009 9:53:27 PM | message detail
Actually, never mind. Kingdom Hearts is not going to overcome RE4's lead even if it does collapse.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/21/2009 9:54:04 PM | message detail
If RE4 can get a lead of around 1000 or so I'd feel pretty good about it holding on.
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 5/21/2009 9:54:22 PM | message detail
If RE4 has a lead over 1000 when the ASV hits I'd give it a chance. I really don't see RE4 building a lead near that big though.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/21/2009 9:54:39 PM | message detail
We need some sort of big comeback attempt in this contest.
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transients | Posted 5/21/2009 9:55:15 PM | message detail
RE4 needs 1500 to be completely safe. it's probably okay at 1000 though.
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xyzzy
red sox 777 | Posted 5/21/2009 9:55:52 PM | message detail
I'd be pretty confident RE4 gets a lead of 1000 by the ASV. 2000, even. I think it'll probably get to around 1000 or so, lose a bit with the morning, and then pick up a second thousand with the DSV- RE's is very very good.
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ZFS | Posted 5/21/2009 9:57:26 PM | message detail
I think TP's got a good shot for first here still. As long as RE4 doesn't go on a tear during the night vote, I'd like it to comeback.

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transients | Posted 5/21/2009 9:58:29 PM | message detail
yep, red sox is right. I don't know if I trust RE4 to do all that great overnight though - that'll probably be HL2's best time. RE4 seems a bit more balanced than its brethren.
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xyzzy
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/21/2009 9:59:16 PM | message detail
RE4 needs 1500 to be completely safe. it's probably okay at 1000 though.

I agree with this. 1000 is probably okay, given we haven't seen any major comebacks yet this contest. RE4 isn't going to have as bad of a day vote as the earlier RE games, because it has the advantage of also being released on a Nintendo console.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/21/2009 10:00:26 PM | message detail
RE4's lead breaks triple digits.
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transients | Posted 5/21/2009 10:01:03 PM | message detail
though now that I think about it, Zelda's overnight vote is brutal. yeah, I'm starting to like RE4 more and more.
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xyzzy
ffmasterjose | Posted 5/21/2009 10:02:07 PM | message detail
Aww yeah triple digit lead. Let's keep up the good work RE4
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162/232 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Resident Evil 4 > Zelda: TP | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/21/2009 10:02:17 PM | message detail
Twilight Princess had a pretty good night vote for a Zelda game, but yeah, RE4's is going to be good. Even so, it didn't build up any sort of massive lead on KHII overnight with it.
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/21/2009 10:04:51 PM | message detail
So, anyone have any explanation why Kingdom Hearts did so well last round and is performing so poorly here? Because I have none.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
Gaddswell | Posted 5/21/2009 10:06:01 PM | message detail

From: MetricTrout | #181
So, anyone have any explanation why Kingdom Hearts did so well last round and is performing so poorly here? Because I have none.


I know!

Kiddy vote SFF between KH2 and Zelda!
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/21/2009 10:06:48 PM | message detail
From: MetricTrout | #179
So, anyone have any explanation why Kingdom Hearts did so well last round and is performing so poorly here? Because I have none.

Second game in the series SFF with Half-Life 2.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/21/2009 10:07:14 PM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | Oblivion | Symphonia | MGS3 | WoW | Demographic
EBV | 23.03% | 23.98% | 33.67% | 19.31% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 22.14% | 22.43% | 33.15% | 22.29% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 23.02% | 19.84% | 33.07% | 24.07% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 24.65% | 19.83% | 30.90% | 24.61% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 26.03% | 19.68% | 31.58% | 22.70% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 25.90% | 21.35% | 30.96% | 21.80% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 25.99% | 22.00% | 30.78% | 21.23% | (22:00-24:00)

MGS3 reverts to typical MGS trends here: Good board vote, Power Hour, and night vote, but weak day vote. Oblivion gradually rises for most of the day, just like last round. WoW with a bad board vote and Power Hour, a good night vote and morning vote, but the day vote really hurt it. ToS with a great board vote and Power Hour, and then fell off until the ASV, where it recovered.

EBV: ToS > Oblivion > WoW
PHV: ToS > WoW > Oblivion
FNV: WoW > Oblivion > ToS
BSV-ASV: Oblivion > WoW > ToS
SNV: Oblivion > ToS > WoW

All sorts of combos.

Yesterday's stats:

Metal Gear Solid 3 – 50.00%
Oblivion – 43.99%
World of Warcraft – 41.80%
Tales of Symphonia – 39.52%

Upper Half Stats

Metal Gear Solid 3 – 50.00%
Oblivion – 43.99%
Tales of Symphonia (Round 1) – 42.47%
God of War (Round 1) – 42.30%
World of Warcraft (Round 2) – 41.80%
San Andreas (Round 1) – 41.02%
World of Warcraft (Round 1) – 40.46%
Tales of Symphonia (Round 2) – 39.52%
God of War (Round 2) – 39.36%
San Andreas (Round 2) – 38.17%
Halo 2 – 38.12%
Okami – 34.77%

LOL Halo 2
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/21/2009 10:07:54 PM | message detail
Yeah, gotta be the "2" SFF.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/21/2009 10:10:38 PM | message detail
I don't know if RE4 will build a substantial lead at this rate.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/21/2009 10:10:48 PM | message detail
I guess it's possible that KHII could have benefited from being the only non-mature game (and let's not start with Colossus. Its fanbase is probably older than that of RE4 and Gears). Ah well, the only thing that matters here is RE4 and TP looking very safe until Round 4.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/21/2009 10:15:31 PM | message detail
Zelda night vote has arrived.
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ffmasterjose | Posted 5/21/2009 10:16:28 PM | message detail
Wrong way there Leon
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162/232 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Resident Evil 4 > Zelda: TP | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/21/2009 10:17:07 PM | message detail
night vote? more like zelda vote
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syco_coaster | Posted 5/21/2009 10:17:14 PM | message detail
TP cut. If it keeps this up I don't see RE4 making a good enough lead to keep its first place. Looks like we have a really good match on our hands!
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Current Score: 172
Today's pick: Twilight Princess > Resident Evil 4
xp1337 | Posted 5/21/2009 10:17:20 PM | message detail
Zelda night vote has arrived.

Now that the RE4 Power Hour is over, it's time for Twilight Princess to remind everyone who the night vote belongs to.

...

...

What?
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SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/21/2009 10:18:14 PM | message detail
God of War (Round 2) – 39.36%

wait what
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/21/2009 10:19:39 PM | message detail
I presume that's basing God of War off of what Symphonia got on MGS3 in round 2.
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Chaotic Mind | Posted 5/21/2009 10:22:28 PM | message detail

From: MetricTrout | #180
So, anyone have any explanation why Kingdom Hearts did so well last round and is performing so poorly here? Because I have none.


It's splitting the kiddy vote with Zelda, duh.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/21/2009 10:25:42 PM | message detail
UH OH
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/21/2009 10:26:26 PM | message detail
The Legend of Zelda and Kingdom Hearts night votes have arrived.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/21/2009 10:26:54 PM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid 3 9.79% / 13.19%
TES IV: Oblivion 8.26% / 9.17%


I'll quickly comment on these poor percentages. I'm thinking that GTA: San Andreas and God of War were the casual favorites to advance to round 3 and they both failed to make it out of round 1. No way that ToS was going to be the favorite to advance, it had poor prediction percentages last round anyways.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/21/2009 10:28:32 PM | message detail
Halo and WoW were likely bigger favorites then God of War. WoW had like 70% advancing out of round 1 compared to only 45% for MGS3, and the rest of the unaccounted for is likely Halo 2.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/21/2009 10:30:56 PM | message detail
WoW had like 70% advancing out of round 1 compared to only 45% for MGS3, and the rest of the unaccounted for is likely Halo 2.

Hmm, maybe WoW was the favorite. Though I'm sure WoW's prediction percentages have dropped from round 1 to round 2. At this rate, I'll say that GTA: San Andreas was probably the other favorite to advance and not God of War.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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