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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 722

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/21/2009 6:49:20 AM | message detail
A couple updates ago. If these massive Oblivion updates continues, I gotta say its the favorite here. It just keeps on spiking like .03-.07% an update
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xp1337 | Posted 5/21/2009 6:49:52 AM | message detail
The 9:30 update, I think.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/21/2009 6:51:13 AM | message detail
I'm looking around and the closest thing I see to a cut was the 8:22 update.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > GTA: SA Points: 147/224
charmander6000 | Posted 5/21/2009 6:51:57 AM | message detail
4138 > 4097 isn't it?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > GTA: SA Points: 147/224
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/21/2009 6:52:43 AM | message detail
at the 9:30 update, Oblivion got 30.75% and MGS3 got 30.09%. Thats a cut no?
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xp1337 | Posted 5/21/2009 6:53:57 AM | message detail
9:32 was Oblivion cutting MGS3. MGS3 gets 136 votes, Oblivion gets 139.

If you just look at it in terms of the relative leads, MGS3 gains 41 on WoW and Oblivion cuts 44 on WoW. It's a net of 3 for Oblivion.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/21/2009 6:54:56 AM | message detail
4138 > 4097 isn't it?

That's MGS3's lead on WoW

MGS3's lead on Oblivion is MGS3's lead on WoW + WoW's lead on Oblivion. That goes down by 3 on that update.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/21/2009 6:56:26 AM | message detail
at the 9:30 update, Oblivion got 30.75% and MGS3 got 30.09%. Thats a cut no?

nm I was looking at WoW...

>_>
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > GTA: SA Points: 147/224
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/21/2009 7:18:15 AM | message detail
Yeah, WoW is done.
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creativename | Posted 5/21/2009 7:18:22 AM | message detail
AAAHHHH I got tickets to UFC 101! Damn I'm pumped. That's going to be unbelievable exciting. Freakin' awesome.

WAR...um...ME!

And WAR OBLIVION for today I guess. Looking like it's day vote will win it this match, as expected.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/21/2009 7:24:46 AM | message detail
and now oblivion cuts mgs3 by 11.

I don't know, it seems something fishy might be going on. You can say Oblivion would be better at day then WoW, but doing constant 28-30% updates now? Nothing in its last match hinted at it being THAT strong at day.
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neonreaper | Posted 5/21/2009 7:30:38 AM | message detail
Plus if Oblivion bombs here it takes with it any hopes of an Xbox game making the 3rd round. n_n

?
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/21/2009 7:34:47 AM | message detail
Lead change whoo

Also looks like WoW is showing a major improvement against MGS3 from round 1. It'll probably end up doing 4% better
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creativename | Posted 5/21/2009 7:41:24 AM | message detail
Yeah, and Tales is doing way worse compared to Oblivion.

But of course all of us knew how badly Tales and MGS3 would LFF!
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xp1337 | Posted 5/21/2009 7:43:26 AM | message detail
But of course all of us knew how badly Tales and MGS3 would LFF!

Obviously.

Tales of Symphonia is a Gamecube game, as is SSBM, Snake is in the next installment of the SSB series so there was clear and obvious overlap between the two.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/21/2009 7:49:00 AM | message detail
Oblivion with the lead again.

It's rallying power is pretty good.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > GTA: SA Points: 147/224
xp1337 | Posted 5/21/2009 7:49:04 AM | message detail
Which actually gets me thinking. It'd be mildly amusing to kind of play "Six Degrees of Separation" with all the different games.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/21/2009 7:50:52 AM | message detail
Which actually gets me thinking. It'd be mildly amusing to kind of play "Six Degrees of Separation" with all the different games.

I think we could prove that all games exist in the same universe.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > GTA: SA Points: 147/224
__Smurf__ | Posted 5/21/2009 8:00:03 AM | message detail
I actually expected ToS to be hurt by MGS3 a little. It had the advantage of being the only japanese game last round, it lost that this round.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/21/2009 8:03:13 AM | message detail
Being made in Japan means nothing, the best argument you could get is genre.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > GTA: SA Points: 147/224
charmander6000 | Posted 5/21/2009 8:04:05 AM | message detail
Time | Oblivion
1:00 | 49.83%
2:00 | 50.26%
3:00 | 48.38%
4:00 | 47.45%
5:00 | 50.12%
6:00 | 47.49%
7:00 | 49.62%
8:00 | 48.73%
9:00 | 51.58%
10:00 | 53.56%
11:00 | 52.45%

Pretty even
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > GTA: SA Points: 147/224
__Smurf__ | Posted 5/21/2009 8:05:11 AM | message detail
It means everything to the otaku.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/21/2009 8:06:45 AM | message detail
It means everything to the otaku.

Those are small percent of the population, don't expect it to make a difference.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > GTA: SA Points: 147/224
ZFS | Posted 5/21/2009 8:06:51 AM | message detail
Whoa, close match between Oblivion and WoW. Didn't think it'd be this close, though everything else looks about right here.

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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/21/2009 8:08:22 AM | message detail
I personally think this site is stupid for the Metal Gear series getting all of its popularity from Smash. I sometimes think the same about Metroid, but it's at least understandable.

BTW now I would've voted for SSBM over Wind Waker.
MasterMoltar | Posted 5/21/2009 8:09:15 AM | message detail
Not as ideal as ToS advancing, but I guess I'm fine with Oblivion moving on. MGS3 doing as expected is good to see too (scaled back on it after seeing MGS1 and 2).

Come on ToS, make a day vote miracle!
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xp1337 | Posted 5/21/2009 8:10:31 AM | message detail
Metal Gear doesn't get all of its strength from SSB. It's almost certainly been a help, but it's not like MGS and Snake were jokes before the Brawl announcement. Snake was always Noble Nine.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/21/2009 8:12:29 AM | message detail
Why would the MGS games get a boost from Brawl? That's like expecting RE1 and 2 to get a boost because of RE4 or HL to get a boost because Freeman has gotten stronger and HL2 was released.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > GTA: SA Points: 147/224
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 5/21/2009 8:15:43 AM | message detail
SSB fans who normally do not play MGS games try one out since Snake was in SSBB.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/21/2009 8:15:48 AM | message detail
Why would the MGS games get a boost from Brawl? That's like expecting RE1 and 2 to get a boost because of RE4 or HL to get a boost because Freeman has gotten stronger and HL2 was released.

Snake is obviously the primary beneficiary, but I can't imagine Brawl hurting MGS. It probably hasn't done anything to the games. When I said "Metal Gear" I meant the franchise as a whole, but that was sloppy of me, my mistake, should have have phrased that a lot better.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/21/2009 8:20:35 AM | message detail

From: xp1337 | #227
Snake was always Noble Nine.


I'd dispute that. I think Snake flattered himself with easy draws and getting to lose to Mega Man (who's a very soft winner) to boost his x-stat rating. I'd certainly argue that Snake wouldn't be in the noble 9 for the past three years if it wasn't for Brawl. I mean he nearly lost to both Bowser and Frog who were giant frauds even at the time, he was never near Noble strength in those years.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/21/2009 8:22:16 AM | message detail
SSB fans who normally do not play MGS games try one out since Snake was in SSBB.

RE4 and HL2 also brought new fans to the series.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > GTA: SA Points: 147/224
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/21/2009 8:22:27 AM | message detail
I stupidly thought that the games would get a boost from MGS4 (not Brawl) and Half-Life would get a boost from its sequel.

I find it funny how Resident Evil 4 and Half-Life 2 have been big games for both of the past two generations. Maybe RE4 for Wii isn't that big among gamers but the only knock against it (from what I've heard, I'm not allowed to play it because my mom doesn't like violence on that level) is no bonus content, and that's looking from a PS2 standpoint (RE4 for PS2 had more content than the GCN version and the Wii version has all of the PS2's content but nothing else). Not to mention RE4 for Wii supports the Wii Remote + Nunchuk, Classic Controller, and GCN Controller. It's the ultimate version of a masterpiece. And The Orange Box is kickass.

What's also cool is Metroid Prime 1 + 2 getting remade for the Wii. God my younger brother will be quite happy (well, I own both already, but a Wii control scheme is better than the GCN's, right?).
__Smurf__ | Posted 5/21/2009 8:26:39 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #232
SSB fans who normally do not play MGS games try one out since Snake was in SSBB.

RE4 and HL2 also brought new fans to the series.


It's a lot more comparable as to what Kingdom Hearts did for Squall in the character battle. It brought a more mature older title to the attention of the younger masses and they ran with that. Similar with Snake in Brawl, you could say it didn't boost Sonic as much since the same audience were already familiar with him.

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xp1337 | Posted 5/21/2009 8:27:52 AM | message detail
Have their been times where Snake's strength has seemed to dip into areas where it seems very plausible that the Noble Nine could have been broken if the right opponent showed up? Sure. That's true for almost half the Noble Nine (Snake, MM, Sonic, Crono).

However, the Noble Nine hasn't actually been broken yet. Although, I'd say this is probably only true because we haven't had a 1v1 contest since 2k6. (And then there's always the "Do 4-ways count as breaking the Noble Nine" thing, in which case it was broken way back with Crono/Vincent).

Nevertheless, all I was really trying to say was that Snake was in the Noble Nine the whole way through, even if in some situations he seemed to have gotten lucky with matchups, and so the idea that Metal Gear got all its strength from SSB is just illogical.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/21/2009 8:29:24 AM | message detail
It's a lot more comparable as to what Kingdom Hearts did for Squall in the character battle. It brought a more mature older title to the attention of the younger masses and they ran with that. Similar with Snake in Brawl, you could say it didn't boost Sonic as much since the same audience were already familiar with him.

Kingdom Hearts boosted Squall, not Final Fantasy VIII.
Super Smash Bros. Brawl boosted Solid Snake, not Metal Gear Solid games.

They're two different things.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > GTA: SA Points: 147/224
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 5/21/2009 8:31:34 AM | message detail
RE4 and HL2 also brought new fans to the series.

It doesn't apply to all cases and might not even apply to the SSBB-MGS case. Unless you believe Fire Emblem would be as as strong as it is without SSBM, the SSB series has at least some evidence of making other games more popular.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/21/2009 8:33:19 AM | message detail
Looks like Oblivion's day vote may win this match for it, although WoW isn't out of it yet. Too bad Tales wasn't able to keep up.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/21/2009 8:33:32 AM | message detail
I'm not sure SSBM/Fire Emblem is a fair case. I mean, SSBM is responsible for Fire Emblem being stronger than it otherwise would be because it was essentially the reason that Fire Emblem came to North America. That's a pretty extraordinary situation.
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/21/2009 8:34:44 AM | message detail
what the.. whoa, last time I checked this was a tied match
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Today's prediction: Snake Eater 32.16% - Oblivion 23.24% - Warcrap 22.79% - Symphonia 21.81%
Status: Great
Zylo the wolf | Posted 5/21/2009 8:36:00 AM | message detail
Pfff the Noble Nine is broken, Link lost to the only undefeated character in Gamefaqs poll. The N-Gage character from Operation Shadow: Jay Solano!!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=-4
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/21/2009 8:37:01 AM | message detail
Heh, ToS has been stalling WoW for the last 30 minutes while Oblivion starts to pull away. Keep up the good work, Lloyd!
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xp1337 | Posted 5/21/2009 8:37:28 AM | message detail
Solano doesn't count for a bunch of reasons. The primary one is that everyone seemed to forget that the point of Solano was to find the weakest possible character, not defeat Link.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/21/2009 8:37:51 AM | message detail
It doesn't apply to all cases and might not even apply to the SSBB-MGS case. Unless you believe Fire Emblem would be as as strong as it is without SSBM, the SSB series has at least some evidence of making other games more popular.

The same can be said for RE4. SSB series makes fans know the existant of other games, whether they play it is a different question. Fire Emblem is unique because almost no one knew about the games in NA. Metal Gear Solid on the other hand is a very popular franchise.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS3 > GTA: SA Points: 147/224
Zylo the wolf | Posted 5/21/2009 8:40:49 AM | message detail
*throws an N-Gage at xp1337*

That's what you get for dissing the Jay-Man

Wooo go Oblivion.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/21/2009 8:41:21 AM | message detail

From: xp1337 | #235
Nevertheless, all I was really trying to say was that Snake was in the Noble Nine the whole way through, even if in some situations he seemed to have gotten lucky with matchups


I'm not arguing the semantics of the noble 9 but I do think Snake wasn't in the top tier of strength prior to Brawl. The last year before the announcement he finished 12th in the x-stats, let a Mega Man who was doubled by Link get 58% on him and almost lost to Frog. You can't deny Brawl made a huge difference to him.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/21/2009 8:43:15 AM | message detail

From: __Smurf__ | #246
The last year before the announcement he finished 12th in the x-stats, let a Mega Man who was doubled by Link get 58% on him and almost lost to Frog. You can't deny Brawl made a huge difference to him.


That was 2 years before the announcement. The last year before the announcement he still finished 8th in the x-stats. Samus was SFFed by Mario though so it was really 9th.


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xp1337 | Posted 5/21/2009 8:46:31 AM | message detail
I wasn't dissing Solano, I was just pointing out that what happened was the exact opposite of what the point was originally intended to be.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/21/2009 8:48:36 AM | message detail
If SSBB SFFs MGS4, it will be absolutely stupid.

I think that Pokemon Red/Blue will resist SFF from Ocarina of Time, for some reason. Maybe it's Majora's Mask keeping most of its votes from round 1?

I need people to take sides on this question. Are Pokemon and Smash devoid of the usual Nintendo fanbase?
xp1337 | Posted 5/21/2009 8:49:10 AM | message detail
If we bring the X-Stats placings into this, then the Noble Nine was "broken" in 2k3 when Magus placed 9th over Sonic. Ah, I remember those times.

And I wasn't saying Brawl didn't help Snake, it's just he was still in an intact Noble Nine prior to Brawl. It almost certainly helped him out.
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