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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 721

CP724 | Posted 5/20/2009 3:29:36 AM | message detail
Anyone else have a weird feeling tetris is going to get second next round then win the entire thing?
MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/20/2009 3:52:33 AM | message detail
Based on what?
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: CT > SM64 - Points: 136 Vote: SM64
MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/20/2009 3:55:48 AM | message detail
Also I don't think Diablo gets out of Round 3; it was too close to GTA III for comfort.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: CT > SM64 - Points: 136 Vote: SM64
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 5/20/2009 4:03:35 AM | message detail
Dear God Halo. Why do you always need to screw my bracket over?

me too argh

in the Oblivion/ToS/WoW/MGS3 match, I have Halo and GTA progressing.

-_-
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/20/2009 4:28:05 AM | message detail
You had GTA: SA > Halo 2 for tomorrow's match? I had GTA: SA > MGS3, which seemed good considering than SA has beaten MGS3 in both the GOTY polls and the list. At least I didn't pick WoW to advance, like some sillyheads did.

And I changed my mind about RE4/HL2 again. Those are undeniably THE games of the century; look how many times they're being ported! They WILL be timeless, or at least being remembered for fresh experiences. Sadly, both could be eliminated before reaching round 3. Nuts.

HL2 will get last place factor'd.

I wouldn't be surprised if ToS advanced tomorrow.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/20/2009 5:36:31 AM | message detail
heh, most of us thought Halo would at least be doing better. It's doing WORSE it seems. Looks like Halo actually benefited from last round.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: CT > SM64 - Points: 136 Vote: SM64
MnMZero | Posted 5/20/2009 6:26:25 AM | message detail
lol Halo

Why did I not notice that Diablo 2 was there when I was filling out my 10-minute bracket? Ugh.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
charmander6000 | Posted 5/20/2009 6:26:26 AM | message detail
So there was talk about Melee/Halo SFF does anyone believe in that?

Also as a series GTA did not flop. Yes SA flopped hard, but 3, VC and 4 did as expected. You can't blame an entire series for flopping when only 1 out of the 4 games under performed. That's like calling the Final Fantasy series a flop because FFXII did badly.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Halo > SSBM Points: 145/216
__Smurf__ | Posted 5/20/2009 6:34:26 AM | message detail
I'd say VC did better than expected, at least better than what the board in general expected.
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lightsout06 | Posted 5/20/2009 6:36:47 AM | message detail
Why do people hate Halo so much. Just because they suck at the game, they think it is a bad game. Halo revolutionized the entire FPS genre, and this is how it is treated. This contest has lost all of its credibility. At least Goldeneye has gotten some respect.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/20/2009 6:40:09 AM | message detail
Most people on the site don't especially like FPS games and they've never had an xbox and it's up against Smash Bros, Zelda and Diablo. I could go on.
It does ok for what it is, it got 3 games into the contest and 2 into the second round, it certainly isn't fodder.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/20/2009 6:43:40 AM | message detail
FPS do worse than usual because you don't usually need a FAQ to play the game. For a lot of people they don't casually go to GameFAQs.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Halo > SSBM Points: 145/216
lightsout06 | Posted 5/20/2009 6:59:21 AM | message detail
I wouldnt mind if Halo was losing to a SM64, FF, or OOT. It is losing to SSBM. How could anyone chose SSBM over its competition? Yes i had melee and i love that game, but it is not a better game than Diablo and Halo. Its not even the best game in its genre, it is just a nerf'd up game that anyone can play.
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"As a rule, men worry more about what they can't see than about what they can. " - Julius Caesar
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/20/2009 7:23:09 AM | message detail
*wakes up*

god damnit, Melee, you SUCK
I had hopes it might stay over 38 after all... apparently not
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Today's prediction: Melee 39.01% - Diablo 21.97% - Halo 20.65% - Boring Waker 18.37%
Status: very crappy
Lopen | Posted 5/20/2009 7:25:36 AM | message detail
FPS do worse than usual because you don't usually need a FAQ to play the game. For a lot of people they don't casually go to GameFAQs.

You know another game that doesn't need an FAQ? SSBM.
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Figlar20000 | Posted 5/20/2009 7:34:47 AM | message detail
Halo.... revolutionize FPS???

Clearly a lot of people have never played a lot of good FPS... Unreal is better than Halo ever will be. It's just harder to set up lan parties with.
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Lopen | Posted 5/20/2009 7:41:46 AM | message detail
You know what irks me?

People calling Halo on being crap and then being sure to mention a terrible FPS like Goldeneye or Unreal or Quake to support their argument. At least bring up a good shooter like Half Life or something.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/20/2009 8:14:51 AM | message detail
lmao... Diablo is 5100 short of SSBM, and 4900 above Halo. Before the ASV, it might actually be closer to SSBM then Halo. Who would have guessed we might see that at some point in the match?
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ffmasterjose | Posted 5/20/2009 8:17:47 AM | message detail
We backed the wrong Blizzard horse this year!
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154/216 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Smash Bros. Melee > Zelda: WW | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/20/2009 8:21:47 AM | message detail
Seriously though, this match makes no sense. How did Halo get so close to Diablo last time WITH another big Xbox game in the match, and now gets blown out?
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xp1337 | Posted 5/20/2009 8:28:04 AM | message detail
KotOR overlapped with Diablo via RPG more than it did Halo via Xbox?

I mean, I don't exactly like the sound of it, but I'm not sure where else to go with it... I mean... SSBM/Halo... Casual SFF/LFF? Because I definitely don't want to go there of all places.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/20/2009 8:33:56 AM | message detail
Whoa. Go Diablo!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/20/2009 8:35:45 AM | message detail
I really wonder how Diablo would have done in 2k4. This thing seems stronger then Starcraft by far.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/20/2009 8:39:09 AM | message detail
By itself, it does seem that way, although I haven't completely abandoned Starcraft as utterly irrelevant yet. However, could Diablo II have picked up the kind of rally that Starcraft did in time? Because if it couldn't, I imagine Wind Waker knocks it out almost certainly if you put it in Starcraft's spot.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
Lopen | Posted 5/20/2009 8:39:16 AM | message detail
I'm thinking it's more the case of Diablo 2 standing the test of time better than Starcraft. Makes sense with all the game revamping patches/ladder resets/etc they've had. Diablo 2 has more reason to remain relevant.

Starcraft player propaganda led me to believe that the game was timeless, but yeah not really buying that anymore.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/20/2009 8:40:40 AM | message detail
I doubt Diablo's able to capitalize next round, but it should definitely have a good showing.
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Xuxon | Posted 5/20/2009 8:41:08 AM | message detail
lmao... Diablo is 5100 short of SSBM, and 4900 above Halo. Before the ASV, it might actually be closer to SSBM then Halo. Who would have guessed we might see that at some point in the match?

Before the contest started I thought WW might steal enough Nintendo votes for D2 to compete with Melee. But after last round with D2 being simply the best of the worst and Melee laying the smackdown to WW, this is definitely pretty surprising.
xp1337 | Posted 5/20/2009 8:41:33 AM | message detail
Well, Starcraft II hype was supposed to revitalize Starcraft even if it had dropped, wasn't it? Not that that worked out at all or anything.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
Mumei | Posted 5/20/2009 8:41:55 AM | message detail
I'm thinking it's more the case of Diablo 2 standing the test of time better than Starcraft. Makes sense with all the game revamping patches/ladder resets/etc they've had. Diablo 2 has more reason to remain relevant.

I think it has more to do with demographics of the site that this contest is on, and their respective genres, than one remaining more relevant.

Starcraft player propaganda led me to believe that the game was timeless, but yeah not really buying that anymore.

Oh, it is timeless. ^_^

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Lopen | Posted 5/20/2009 8:45:30 AM | message detail
Hey, I think it's timeless-- it was partially my propaganda! I'm just saying I don't think the site as a whole thinks so.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/20/2009 8:51:04 AM | message detail
So... does Wind Waker hold onto 3rd with its lead of almost 1600 (and still rising), or can Halo cover that in the ASV? ...Because I'm thinking WW should hold, actually.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/20/2009 8:51:44 AM | message detail
I'm liking Wind Waker to win it. It will likely be 2000 by the asv, and I can't see Halo turning 2000 at its lower percentage.
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Mumei | Posted 5/20/2009 8:55:36 AM | message detail
Hey, I think it's timeless-- it was partially my propaganda! I'm just saying I don't think the site as a whole thinks so.

Oh, that's clear.

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"Luxe, calme et volupte." - Charles Baudelaire, The Invitation to the Voyage
Lopen | Posted 5/20/2009 8:57:13 AM | message detail
2000 should be easy for Halo to overturn. SSBM SFFs the Wind Waker Nintendo flavored ASV while Halo reaps the X-Box ASV uncontested. It should do a bit better this time than it did last round with it.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/20/2009 9:15:41 AM | message detail
ALL ABOARD! THE SSBM > DIABLO 2 TRAIN!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/20/2009 9:16:27 AM | message detail
Wow, Diablo II with nearly 43% on Melee, and Melee's down to 35% overall. Not a good performance overall for SSBM. I'm not sure what has caused such a large disparity between Diablo and Halo from round to round unless it is indeed getting a bandwagon going.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/20/2009 9:17:47 AM | message detail
Diablo's less than a percent below where it FINISHED last round. Sure, it'll go down a lot with the ASV, but that's pretty impressive.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/20/2009 9:19:40 AM | message detail
Bangwagoning is all I can think of. And you know what Blizzard game is up tomorrow that might get bandwagon support from the same people ... !
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xp1337 | Posted 5/20/2009 9:23:06 AM | message detail
ALL ABOARD! THE SSBM > DIABLO 2 TRAIN!

Where's this hype train heading? The Divisional Finals? Round 4? The Quarterfinals? Further?
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/20/2009 9:30:23 AM | message detail
For a short while Half-Life 2 was one of my favorites to get to the finals, but I ditched that.

Anyways, it's cool to see my first video game do so well. I may have made it seem like I hate SSBM earlier, but I don't.
ffmasterjose | Posted 5/20/2009 9:32:33 AM | message detail
For a short while Half-Life 2 was one of my favorites to get to the finals, but I ditched that.

lol wate u mess up

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154/216 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Smash Bros. Melee > Zelda: WW | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/20/2009 9:33:08 AM | message detail
Diablo is at 59.9% on Halo. This percentage will obviously go down, but it'll still finish much stronger than it did in Round 1 - too much stronger for me to just chalk it up to variation. I also have trouble buying the theory that KotOR hurt Diablo more. Heck, it might be true, but it can't be this much more. Admit it, gentlemen; there's some Melee/Halo overlap going on here right now.

Also, there's no way Halo turns this. The percentages are just too low, and it's not like Zelda turned into Magus overnight.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/20/2009 9:34:06 AM | message detail
There may be some melee/halo overlap, but I'm liking the bandwagon theory more.... !
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/20/2009 9:38:03 AM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLVFSW2SCSg
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/20/2009 9:39:46 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #144
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLVFSW2SCSg


YESSS
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Yesmar | Posted 5/20/2009 9:59:39 AM | message detail
Now, I'm not going to say that something else isn't going on here, but let's not underestimate the power of random variation, in general, not just in regards to this match.

We see Diablo II beat Halo with 51.5% and we assume that's the "legitimate" result and random variation can only account for a two percent shift or so in either direction. However, for all we know that was just one end of the random variation and in reality, Diablo is capable of beating Halo with 55.5%. If we saw Diablo II win with 53.5% we wouldn't find either of these two ends extreme for a subsequent meeting, but because we see one extreme, we're biased against the other, and think that it's too much. That being said, what we are seeing here is clearly larger than that, but it might not be as big as we're making it out to be once the ASV is done with.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
medicority | Posted 5/20/2009 10:18:33 AM | message detail
I would definitely vote D2 over starcraft. I'm pretty sure it's the second best selling blizzard game after wow, but without the hate.
medicority | Posted 5/20/2009 10:22:50 AM | message detail
also if people were banking on starcraft 2 hype why not diablo 3?
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/20/2009 10:27:11 AM | message detail

From: medicority | #148
also if people were banking on starcraft 2 hype why not diablo 3?


http://gza.gameriot.com/content/images/view_320200_1_1233422194.jpg
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/20/2009 10:31:34 AM | message detail
So for tomorrow's match...

I think I'm going with MGS3 > ToS for the upset, though I may change my mind and go with Oblivion.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Halo > SSBM Points: 145/216