GameFAQs Contests

Who else wants Super Smash Bros.: Nintendo vs. Square?

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

insta-10 million units sold.
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Nintendo vs. Final Fantasy would sell more!
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That's what it should be called, yeah. Maybe with Crono/Magus as hidden characters.
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Crono would be a big announcement on the Dojo site to cover up the months-long delay.

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Dojo site?

Sephiroth vs. Link: the cover.
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The weird thing is that game would be unbelievably good.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

Why would that be weird...? I think everyone would expect it to absolutely kick ass. The hype would be tremendous.
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Is SMRPG the only well-known Nintendo-Square dual project?
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

It's the only one I can think of.
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Over night, we might honestly get some updates Diablo is close to cutting SSBM.
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Looks like Melee stalled enough...

It's dropping like a rock!
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Halo > SSBM Points: 145/216

This match is now about whether or not Halo can beat a Wind Waker stuck in the poll with ****ing Melee.

Who ya got?

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

We know why Wind Waker is losing handily though. That's not pure SSBM strength in that regard.

No, it's not, but it still has to suck those votes away from the Zelda fanbase, instead of, say, the Donkey Kong fanbase. They're both Nintendo, but I would think Zelda anything is more resistant to SFF in general (apart from other Zelda things).

I'm also a huge Smash fanboy though and may or may not have it in the finals.
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One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. 4983-4640-3352 Brawl Code

Well, I think the fact that Melee is basically doubling three games that would be solid midcarders is pretty impressive.

Eh, after the solid midcarders barely beat out KotOR in round 1, I'm not so impressed. This match looks pretty average for SSBM. A bit disappointing actually, but I'm willing to let that slide since WW is likely knocking it down in comparison to the other two.
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FastFalcon and Solid Snake snapped my neck in the guru contest.

Is it just me or does this site seem to have some sort of unwavering hatred on FPS games?

To me its the only logical reason as to why Metroid Prime got eliminated while Super Metroid advances, along with how somehow Wind Waker is ahead of Halo.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus

It's too bad we never get to see the epic FFX vs. SSBM rematch.

Before the contest I was thinking FFX would win, now I've changed my mind. FFX will lose relatively handily to Smash in the division finals though. And then Smash should get Ocarina'd.
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SSBM in the finals isn't THAT bad of a pick if FFX and FFVIII both end up in that match with OoT. After that, it has to deal with...Possibly another Zelda and KHII/RE4.

Can't see it getting through there though unless it resists LFF like a champ.
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Melee isn't impressing me here. That may be because I've always thought higher of it than most people here, though. In 2006, I think it was a legit contender for #3, although it is not anymore post-Brawl hype and post-Deboost. That SMB/SSB match really really impressed me then, and it is even more impressive now that we've seen Mario games do so well.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Oh, I forgot about FF8/FFX. Ugh.
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I'm very curious about Ocarina/FFVIII/Melee/FFX. Even though I'm less impressed with FFVIII than last round, I'm somewhat hesitant to say KH > FFVIII, which should at least make the FF split pretty bad. And who knows if Melee (or anything Nintendo, really) can stand up to Ocarina even if it needs to do so to place. We'll get some indication of that with RBY, at least.
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Mustache...and Green...
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And yeah, Halo is not a solid midcarder. It's losing to an SFF'd Wind Waker, which normally would probably be a midcarder.....toward the lower side of that range.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

I think Smash is going to hold up really well. I'm still impressed by the series contest when Smash pulled 38% on Mario Bros.
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One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. 4983-4640-3352 Brawl Code

OoT should hurt Melee, but the intra-series FF split should be worse. I think Smash easily beats FFX in such a match (and that match seems likely at this point, though MGS has a reasonable shot at stopping it).

If Smash makes the finals though - and that's looking extremely possible to me - FF7/Lttp/OoT/Smash? Wow. FF7 basically crushes OoT despite maybe not being stronger than it. That would suck.
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So, FFX/KH/SSBM/Diablo2

Is there any way in hell FFX and KH LFF eachother enough to let Diablo 2 through?
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No, it's not, but it still has to suck those votes away from the Zelda fanbase, instead of, say, the Donkey Kong fanbase. They're both Nintendo, but I would think Zelda anything is more resistant to SFF in general (apart from other Zelda things).

The Smash franchise would probably be the best bet at stealing votes from the Zelda franchise however since it also has Zelda characters.
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Demyx is better than Axel.

OOT/SSBM/FFX/FFVIII is interesting. If it's just LFF, I think SSBM has it, but OOT can SFF Nintendo games pretty badly. I can see the SFF there ranging from none to massive.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

The bad thing is that the further along we get into the contest, the more LFF/SFF there is because everything that's not Square or Nintendo gets weeded out! Seriously, once we get into round three, it's a crapshoot of LFF/SFF

Tetris/MM2/SMB/LoZ (though we know how this plays out)
Mario 3/Sonic 1/SMW/FFIV
LTTP/SM/FFVI/LA
FFVII/GE/CT/Mario 64
MGS/RBY/OoT/FFVIII
FFX/KH/SSBM/Diablo
MGS3/????/TP/RE4 or KHII (which is about the only clean one we get)
CoD4/SSBB or SMG/MGS4/Fallout 3 (another potentially clean match)

SMB/LoZ/Mario 3/SMW or FFIV
FFVI/LTTP/FFVII/CT or Mario 64
OoT/FFVIII or RBY/FFX/SSBM
TP/SSBB/MGS4/RE4 or KHII or MGS3

And so on.
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Halo is trying all it can to get out of 4th, it would be the ultimate humiliation if it lost to one of the weaker Zelda games.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus

Is there any way FFX and KH LFF eachother enough to let Diablo 2 through?

Considering MGS2 didn't come anywhere close and I'd hesitate to take Diablo 2 over it by any significant margin, no.
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Well, we saw Ocarina against two Nintendo games in 2004 and it was not pretty. Mario 64 has probably benefited from the general Nintendo boost since 2004, but, still, holding a game of that caliber to 23%? When CT did nearly 20% better on FFVII? That's pretty bad SFF.
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Mustache...and Green...
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Yeah this bracket sucks and we still really have no clue how things are going to play out.

Which would normally be good, but here it just ends up with stupid matches and stupid results. Like the potential Final Fantasy 7 vs. Nintendo final.
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For what it's worth, I think SMB would have been nearly doubled by LoZ in the Series Contest if FF wasn't in the way, and SMB's worth ~46% on LoZ there. It's also worth noting E3 was about a month before SMB/SSB...the one where Solid Snake's announcement in SSBB happened. Based off that, I think SSB would be smashed (hardy har har) by LoZ.

I maintain that we need to see a new Nintendo-series poll though; we've not had one since SSB became a series.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

Yeah this bracket sucks and we still really have no clue how things are going to play out.

So a bracket is somehow better if its predictable, and somehow worse if its not? That makes no sense at all. I'd take unpredictable anyday since it actually makes it more interesting then getting the expected matches every day.
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I think Mario would have held up relatively well to LoZ. Certainly not a doubling.

And Diablo II's really flying right now. It'll probably be over 40% on SSBM overnight, though I expect it'll finish below that.
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That's just the thing. I prefer SSBM to any Mario game, but would not dream of voting for the SSB series over the Mario series. I was pretty floored to see that 38% of the site did just that.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

So a bracket is somehow better if its predictable, and somehow worse if its not? That makes no sense at all. I'd take unpredictable anyday since it actually makes it more interesting then getting the expected matches every day.

That's not what he's saying at all. And you can have your unpredictable bracket and crappy matches any day of the week.
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Now if Halo doesn't Wind Waker here, where would Halo's new position on "The List" be?
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus

Actually you guys are right, FFX/8/OoT/Smash could be a non-lock match.

The intra-series leeching should be quite a bit worse than the Nintendo leeching, but FFX's big hope is that it's dealing with a weaker game, while Smash is dealing with a significantly stronger game.

Smash could potentially resist SFF there...but red sox is right, it's real hard to predict how badly it gets hurt. If it resists or just gets brutalized.

I guess there's still some hope for FFX.
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"Doesn't beat Wind Waker here"

This site so needs an edit button........
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus

Brackets that are unpredictable because we don't know character strengths are awesome (see: the great Mario/Samus/Crono debate of 2k5, or the 2k6 endgame). Brackets that are unpredictable because we don't know how LFF is going to fall (see: Mario 1/Zelda 1/Mario 3/Mario World) are awful.
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Mustache...and Green...
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From: LeonhartFour | #030
Is there any way FFX and KH LFF eachother enough to let Diablo 2 through?

Considering MGS2 didn't come anywhere close and I'd hesitate to take Diablo 2 over it by any significant margin, no.

People said Starcraft had no shot in round 3 back in 2004, too.
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From: MyWorldIsCrono | Posted: 5/20/2009 12:57:35 AM | #034
Yeah this bracket sucks and we still really have no clue how things are going to play out.

So a bracket is somehow better if its predictable, and somehow worse if its not? That makes no sense at all. I'd take unpredictable anyday since it actually makes it more interesting then getting the expected matches every day.

1v1 brackets are every bit as unpredictable if built correctly. Bacon's cited numbers are unbelievably silly.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

Diablo leads Halo by 621 at the end of the first hour. It led it by 311 at the end of the first hour last round.

Nearly twice as much despite being at a lower percentage. Pretty impressive.
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There is no point to having an unpredictable bracket if it does not let you ever know if your predictions were right.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

People said Starcraft had no shot in round 3 back in 2004, too.

I don't think it's quite the same thing. I suppose Diablo II could get the bandwagon effect after this round, but that's the only chance it's got.
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I can't get over how stupid of a "championship" match FF7 vs. Nintendo would be.

OoT would blow the other Nintendo games to bits and still get mauled by FF7. FF7 would be the very definition of paper "Champ".
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From: LeonhartFour | #046
People said Starcraft had no shot in round 3 back in 2004, too.

I don't think it's quite the same thing. I suppose Diablo II could get the bandwagon effect after this round, but that's the only chance it's got.

I think it can. It is another popular Blizzard battlenet game, afterall. If Starcraft could, I don't see why Diablo can't.
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FFX is a big step up from Wind Waker, even when LFF'd.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Diablo is still raising a third of a percentage an update an hour in. This thing is gonna end up looking quite good
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