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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 720

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/19/2009 11:19:07 AM | message detail
http://www.wowinsider.com/2009/05/19/game-fuel-pets-for-all-sort-of/

WoW Game Fuel pets will lead WoW to victory ... !
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/19/2009 11:32:10 AM | message detail
KH cut just as we hit 2:30. Lets do this 5k vote comeback ... !
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/19/2009 11:32:46 AM | message detail
Yeah, 2 vote cut = 5000 vote comeback

Or fluke update
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/19/2009 11:40:57 AM | message detail
Nah its not a fluke. FFX is dying now and KH is going up. And this is only the very very early asv. Its not going to come back or anything, but it may cut 1500-2000 votes
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/19/2009 11:55:55 AM | message detail
FFX will still beat KH by a few thousand votes despite both games from that series impressing in R1 and it wasn't upset by MGS2 through LFF, so it's hard to complain about FFX's performance now. Great, no, but understandable and still solid enough to be in contention for the Top Ten when taken in context...

...really, it almost has to be in contention. If Nintendo and Square are EASILY the two companies shining most in this contest, I don't think Square will only have FF7 and probably CT in the Top Ten. FFX is most likely the next Square title in line (if it doesn't already beat CT, but I'll avoid over-reacting until further notice), and it would have to be shunned by at least eight Nintendo games. Of the main Nintendo titles we've seen contend for that list (in no particular order)...

LoZ:OoT
LoZ:LttP
LoZ:TP
SMB3
SM64
SMW
SMB1
SSBM
Pokemon R/B/Y

...I'd think FFX could beat at least two of them. FFX's chances are also oddly improved if FF7 and CT dropped because of age; FFX is several years younger than either FF7 or CT, FFX is only beaten by LoZ:TP for being younger, and five of those Nintendo games are older than FF7 (four are older than CT, with SM64 coming between them). Then again, age hasn't stopped any of them from being in contention in the first place yet and that's not an argument I'd like to rely on.

Looking further into the bracket, I still like FFX beating FF8 due to most polls we've seen (FF7 be damned in all of them though), and FFX is currently taking down the game that made Squall super-popular...so taking down FF8 shouldn't be particularly hard, right? I'd take FFX to do what FF8 did yesterday in its place -- it would break FF9 down while beating Starcraft, at least. Assuming they meet up, it'll be nice to finally settle this.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/19/2009 11:59:21 AM | message detail
Coming back 1500-2000 is a bit optimistic isn't it? Something between 500-1000 is plenty impressive
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/19/2009 11:59:45 AM | message detail
If it even managed that anyway
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/19/2009 12:00:42 PM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #206
Coming back 1500-2000 is a bit optimistic isn't it? Something between 500-1000 is plenty impressive


sora vs. squall
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/19/2009 12:01:07 PM | message detail
Considering Kingdom Hearts will end up with about a relative 46%, I'd still say this was a disappointing performance from FFX. One could still argue that it would be Top 10 (especially if you assume Kingdom Hearts to be Top 15), but I expected much better than 54/46. I guess the Kingdom Hearts series might hold on well against SFF; I would have loved to see it go up against FFVII.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/19/2009 12:03:32 PM | message detail
KH wasn't even the best day vote game in its match last round. I don't think it could be compared to Sora
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/19/2009 12:05:08 PM | message detail
After seeing KHII nearly beat RE4, I don't have a problem with both games being potentially top 20.

And KH is only stalling FFX right now. To say it's all of a sudden going to cut 2000 votes is ridiculous.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/19/2009 12:06:07 PM | message detail
Sora is the ASV king, but Kingdom Hearts is no slouch. It's cutting and stalling something that's 5,000 votes ahead - that isn't exactly common.

Also, it looks like FFX is getting cleaned up by this ASV. MGS2 is making small but steady gains, and even GTA is doing a better job holding on. This won't end up looking impressive at all, I don't think.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/19/2009 12:06:40 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #211
After seeing KHII nearly beat RE4, I don't have a problem with both games being potentially top 20.

And KH is only stalling FFX right now. To say it's all of a sudden going to cut 2000 votes is ridiculous.


look at sora/squall. it only stalled from 2:30-3:30 before going nuts after that
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/19/2009 12:07:49 PM | message detail
FFX's day vote is better than FFVIII's though.
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transience | Posted 5/19/2009 12:12:48 PM | message detail
FFX is fine here. it's a couple percent below where I'd expect it to be, but nothing drastic. replace "KH" with "RE4" if you like, since that looks to be about where KH is strength-wise.
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xyzzy
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/19/2009 12:15:02 PM | message detail
yeah im liking it cutting 1500-2000 here still. sora wasn't even doing 15 vote cuts yet on squall at this time
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/19/2009 12:19:55 PM | message detail
9/24/02: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1025


That was a week after KH's release, I believe, and KH still broke 42% on FFX. Since KH turned around this in R1...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1130

...and since KH2 hung tight with RE4, I'm okay with giving KH a break and allowing it to be fairly close to FFX. We still credit it for how 2003 rocked our brackets, and KHF wasn't exactly a one-year-only thing with no future consequences.
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Prototype
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 5/19/2009 12:20:42 PM | message detail
Yeah, if nothing else, this restores my confidence in RE4 making it to the semifinals.

Also, FFX's doing slightly better here than the 2k4 stats predict, amusingly enough. If KH has increased much since then, FFX's still looking pretty good.
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ffmasterjose | Posted 5/19/2009 12:22:36 PM | message detail
*sigh* so much for FFX > Melee. Thanks a lot Sora.
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150/208 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Final Fantasy X > Metal Gear Solid 2 | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
charmander6000 | Posted 5/19/2009 12:43:48 PM | message detail
Watch next round be SSBM > Halo/Diablo II
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFX > GTA: VC Points: 141/208
ZFS | Posted 5/19/2009 12:49:47 PM | message detail
Yeah, this isn't a bad performance from FFX at all when you consider how strong KH was looking after round 1. No reason to remove from top 10 talk based off of this, anyway.

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HaRRicH | Posted 5/19/2009 12:52:14 PM | message detail
Man, SSBM will murder FFX/KH if LoZ:WW's eliminated tomorrow...

...have we discussed tomorrow's match recently anyway, or is that outcome more unanimous than I thought? I figure SSBM has another easy win while D2 beats LoZ:WW in a pretty close one.
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Prototype
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 5/19/2009 12:55:14 PM | message detail
Halo's a bigger threat than Wind Waker, if it was held back at all by KotOR.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/19/2009 12:55:47 PM | message detail
I thought the debate was between Diablo and Halo, since many thought that KotOR was holding Halo back. It may have been, but I doubt it'll be enough to make a difference. I think Wind Waker would contest for second before Halo does, but I'm still pretty confident in D2.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/19/2009 12:55:48 PM | message detail
I think WW is a total non factor tomorrow. Its all about Diablo 2 vs. Halo
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/19/2009 12:55:54 PM | message detail
Diablo II didn't look too great in the first round (<52% on Halo looks pretty bad after seeing Halo 2/3), but it's probably enough to take out a Wind Waker that only managed 34% on Melee. It's kinda like today, except both options for second are less palatable.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/19/2009 12:57:07 PM | message detail
I think Halo can take on Diablo II tomorrow. It didn't win by much when the Xbox support was almost cut in half.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFX > GTA: VC Points: 141/208
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/19/2009 12:58:56 PM | message detail
I might be the only guy here who thinks Halo could be hurt with Smash there. They're two of the biggest, most casual multiplayer-centric games of the past decade. I do expect some overlap, which is why a part of me doesn't expect it Halo to make any relative improvements against D2.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/19/2009 12:59:57 PM | message detail
Halo hurt by KotOR and Melee - this is looking way too hard for LFF!
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/19/2009 1:12:38 PM | message detail
SW:KotOR may have hurt Halo, but Halo/D2/GTA3 were all pretty close together like we thought too and I figure D2 would get a good portion of that vote too. Halo/SSBM though...I mean, I can see it on one hand, but then I'd wanna include D2 in that too. That would make for multi-player SFF across various systems and genres and watch LoZ:WW benefit from their "LFF" for being single-player only. I don't wanna go that route.
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Prototype
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/19/2009 1:13:55 PM | message detail
Diablo 2 is an online dungeon crawler. Thats a lot different of a multiplayer game then halo and SSBM which were big same room muliplayer games. Different audiences, at least.
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/19/2009 1:20:06 PM | message detail
True, but all three still relied on multi-player to sell and for replay value. If we're already going the "multi-player SFF" route, I don't see why you would aim for that specific of a part of that kind of factor and still expect it to affect SSBM/Halo noticeably.
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Prototype
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Yesmar | Posted 5/19/2009 1:23:51 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be surprised of KOTOR hurt Diablo II as well last round. They're both wRPGs.
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Yesmar | Posted 5/19/2009 1:24:15 PM | message detail
*if KOTOR
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ChronicBoom | Posted 5/19/2009 1:26:22 PM | message detail
this contest is so jacked up. I've been putrid this round.

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/19/2009 1:30:45 PM | message detail
I still see how RE4 could make the final.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/19/2009 1:31:49 PM | message detail
KH doing this well renews my faith in RE4. KH I'd say is a definite top 15 title now
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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/19/2009 1:33:55 PM | message detail
KH doing this well renews my faith in RE4. KH I'd say is a definite top 15 title now

You do know that there is only room for 15 games in the top 15, and not like 40?

You can't say "this and this game is definite top 15!" after every.single.contest.match we have.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/19/2009 1:41:33 PM | message detail
46 cut. more of those KH
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/19/2009 1:53:25 PM | message detail
RE4 still has to prove Nintendo's not going to hurt it though. Leon's lost like 4% against Dante when Pikachu or Kirby were in the matches, and RE4 is facing LoZ:TP after beating KH2 by .56% last round. RE4 has to completely stand strong with its Nintendo-support. Then again, if RE4 isn't affected at all by LoZ:TP, then we can probably assume its place in the GotC-poll is pretty accurate and it's not that close to FFX.

Damned either way.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/19/2009 2:05:20 PM | message detail
After today, I'm calling KHII the favorite. I really hope that Gears of War impeded RE4 a bit and that TP won't hurt it too much more than it'll hurt KHII.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/19/2009 2:26:06 PM | message detail
FFX has such a horrid asv. MGS2 and GTA are far outdoing it here
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/19/2009 2:46:45 PM | message detail
Watch next round be SSBM > Halo/Diablo II

MGS2 is stronger than both of those, I'd wager, so I doubt it.

And stop overstating the ASV here, Albion. KH is gaining ground, sure, but to say FFX's ASV is "horrid" is an overstatement. Last round showed us that MGS2's ASV isn't bad.

Vice City holding up is a bit strange, but FFX hasn't really lost that much ground in the last three hours. We knew KH was going to gain ground, but it's certainly not going to cut 1000-1500 votes.

And I'm surprised that anyone even mentioned Wind Waker in the discussion for tomorrow's match. I wouldn't expect Melee to put 65% on Halo or Diablo II straight up.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/19/2009 2:48:38 PM | message detail
And stop overstating the ASV here, Albion. KH is gaining ground, sure, but to say FFX's ASV is "horrid" is an overstatement. Last round showed us that MGS2's ASV isn't bad.

lol, its gonna lose like 1.5% in the asv. Thats what we call a bad asv
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lightsout06 | Posted 5/19/2009 2:49:27 PM | message detail
Cant wait to see the MC put up a close 2nd on Melee
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/19/2009 2:49:58 PM | message detail
Losing 1.5% to Kingdom Hearts with the ASV is not what I'd call a bad ASV.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/19/2009 2:51:35 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #246
Losing 1.5% to Kingdom Hearts with the ASV is not what I'd call a bad ASV.


it is when tis also with mgs2 and gta. thats a CT type of asv if if it can do way way worse then those games
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/19/2009 2:52:34 PM | message detail
And I'm surprised that anyone even mentioned Wind Waker in the discussion for tomorrow's match. I wouldn't expect Melee to put 65% on Halo or Diablo II straight up.

You either have too much faith for Melee or not enough for Halo/D2. Wind Waker failed to double Disgaea, it's not going anywhere.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFX > GTA: VC Points: 141/208
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/19/2009 2:53:03 PM | message detail
...That's what I said.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/19/2009 2:53:50 PM | message detail
Since when is GTA's ASV terrible? It's more average than bad.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFX > GTA: VC Points: 141/208