GameFAQs Contests

No idea what you're talking about sox, I'm just saying its a surprise that MK64 was in last place. If it was a surprise, why would people avoid voting for it if it was expected to be in contention?
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We've never figured out a reason for Last Place Factor outside of a few special cases like the final. It's just something we've observed, as per Yesmar's list. It doesn't have to be tied to expectations, just strength. And if it were tied to expectations, it's not to this board's expectations.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

-shrug- still seems to me ya'll are just reaching for new terms cuz you've burnt out the current ones

and seriously, even if this is the case... why do we care so much about what last place games/characters do? they're weak anyway if they're in last place
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also, KH is a night beast confirmed
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You've long been one of the absolute smartest posters here red sox :)

Who were you rooting for in Vincent/Crono anyway?
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Crono of course! Considering I consider that match (the 2007 match) the single worst result in contest history, I don't know why I keep referencing it. It's like Vincent seared it across my mind with enough pain that I cannot move past it.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

From: red sox 777 | #156
Crono of course! Considering I consider that match (the 2007 match) the single worst result in contest history, I don't know why I keep referencing it. It's like Vincent seared it across my mind with enough pain that I cannot move past it.

It is the only time I will ever say this.

Damn Link. (God, that just makes me feel dirty)


If only the other silent elf was not there, Crono would have beaten Vincent.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton

Hey uhhh what is up with this whole "FFX not taking advantage of this voting bloc" thing.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

These trends are weird. MGS is dying and KH is rising.
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Very weird trends indeed.

And games that younger audiences prefer have done very very well this round compared to last round. It's time for save_us.round3.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

There's a vicious update. Few more of those, please!
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Just wait until Kingdom Hearts comes all the way back with the Europe vote, only for FFX to ride the ASV to a dominating victory.
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hey look i'm war and i'm stupid - WVI

just wait till the yaoi fangirls wake up
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Yaoi fangirls don't sleep. They wait.

Seriously, one of my friends is one. She never sleeps.
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hey look i'm war and i'm stupid - WVI

heh, seems FFX is alive. It just doubled KH there
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Huh, I would've thought FFX and KH would split with each other badly enough that they didn't both advance. Maybe all four games here being on the PS2 means they all overlap to some extent, so the LFF between FFX/KH isn't as bad as it could be. Or something.

Not that it matters too much for me since I had Metroid Prime advancing here. x_x
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Stay a while and breathe me in.

Wow, quite a few people are surprised at FFX not being able to SFF Kingdom Hearts much, it seems. Uhm, remember FFX's match against FFTA in the last games contest? Oh, and Final Fantasy IX > StarCraft? LOL STARCRAFT!!! LOL HALF-LIFE!!! LOL CLASSIC PC GAMES!!!

Final Fantasy VIII kept 52.39% of its votes from last round.
StarCraft kept 65.01% of its votes from last round.
Zelda: Ocarina of Time kept 89.93% of its votes from last round.
Final Fantasy IX kept 59.27% of its votes from last round.

Well, it seems that Same Series Factor (as I will call it) really is bad, as all victims have done rather poorly in this stat. Ocarina of Time did very, very well at keeping its votes, and StarCraft did about average. I still think that "average" means that something hurt it marginally, and if so, then Same Year SFF is true! BTW I find it funny that Ocarina of Time and Final Fantasy IX tied for last among Asian voters.

FFX: Hey KH, can I borrow some of your percentage?
KH: SHORY- wait, that response doesn't actually make se-
FFX: Too late! You said sure! Heheheh.

Summary of the past hour and a half or so.
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http://i59.photobucket.com/albums/g320/HowDisturbing/stayawhile.jpg
Stay a while and breathe me in.

sign, MGS2 has no chance to make a comeback, right?
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me

No, MGS games are pretty weak. Thus, no comeback... certainly not during the day.

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I will bury you.

Honorable mentions as far as vote totals go:

-Zelda: Ocarina of Time managed the highest vote total of the round so far, being the only game with over 60k votes.
-Tetris managed the lowest vote total out of all first place entrants, but still broke 40k votes.
-The Legend of Zelda had the highest vote total out of all second place entrants, with 42k. It narrowly beat Chrono Trigger for this spot, and managed a vote total just lower than Metal Gear Solid's.
-Super Metroid had the lowest vote total out of every game that advanced, with exactly 21k votes. Vote totals suggest that StarCraft and Street Fighter II could've advanced out of that fourpack.
-Zelda: Majora's Mask had the highest vote total out of every game that was eliminated, with over 28k votes, higher than the vote totals of Final Fantasy VIII and GoldenEye, for instance.
-Metroid managed the lowest vote total out of every third place entrant. This should give a clue as to something later on.
-Pokemon Gold/Silver managed the highest vote total out of every fourth place entrant. That was probably the closest match of the round so far.
-Ninja Gaiden had the lowest vote total in the entire round. It gets to share the pity being held to less than 10k votes with Yoshi's Island and Monkey Island.

*listening to music from Flashback*

GTA cutting both KH and MGS2. That can only mean it's bad-taste-EuroFAQs time.
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I'm not really opposed to the concept of LPF, but that list is full of questionable examples. Midna, Donkey Kong, and Yoshi were involved in SFF matches, and it's hard to say anything definite about those. It almost seems like Shadow qualifies as an SFF match. Wario, besides being an SFF match, also kept the same proportion to Fox, so there's really no argument there. Dante and Amaterasu were in weird matches, the relevant ones being Pikachu/Leon and L-Block. Phoenix Wright was bandwagoned heavily during his first round match. Duke outright beat Gordon Freeman before he got crushed in the subsequent round. It makes either result seem like some other weirdness besides LPF.

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The world is toroidal.
Exposed armpits are sexy.

GTA's got one hell of a night vote. much better than MGS.

MGS2 seems unique though.. it's a lot more balanced than its brethren.
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xyzzy

Looks like MGS is taking advantage of its good Europe vote to stall KH during these late night hours.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!

tag
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko

FFX is looking safe and should be safe out of the next round as well (I'd imagine Kingdom Hearts would overlap more with Smash given their trends). Still, I can't exactly say this makes me confident in the game's chances against FFVIII.
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Yoblazer: http://i42.tinypic.com/avk9ie.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

@whatev: As far as the Duke/Gordon silliness, Duke is a casual character while Gordon leans more towards the hardcore fanbase (I can't think of any character who can SFF Gordon). Because Sonic and a Mortal Kombat character came into the picture, Duke lost his casual votes the round afterwards. Something also strikes me to think that Gordon overperforms when facing stronger competition, and the same could be said about Half-Life 2.

If you think about it, Half-Life 1's strength is a parallel of Gordon's strength in his early contest career, where he was turbofodder and many were burnt by picking him to win matches. Half-Life 2, on the other hand turned Gordon into a decent midcarder, and that's why Half-Life 2 is so much stronger. I find it funny that Half-Life 2 managed a higher vote total in its match than Wind Waker and Super Mario Galaxy did in their respective matches.

And, for no reason in particular, I'm willing to vote for only four games against Half-Life 2.

One thing I find funny though, is that Half-Life barely missed the top 20 in the last contest's stats and barely missed the top 30 on the list, which fooled us into thinking that it was a strong game, and now the truth comes out. As a matter of fact, there are quite a few games that did well on the x-stats, game of the year polls, and the list that have bombed this contest.

-StarCraft
-DOOM (though it didn't do very well in the stats, but was 33rd on the list while Donkey Kong Country was nowhere to be found)
-Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (won Game of the Year and barely missed the top 10 in the list; as a matter of fact, the list indicates that it's the strongest game in its division and could even beat Final Fantasy X and Super Mario 64)
-Final Fantasy Tactics

One thing that I noticed, though, is that while all games mentioned above (and Half-Life) have generally looked well on this site, the CHARACTERS from those games have generally been huge bombs. Kerrigan, CJ, Ramza, and pre-HL2 Gordon are fodder characters but their games have always looked good on GameFAQs until now. The truth is that games = characters.

The truth is that games = characters.

Samus, Sonic, and Mega Man say hi. Also any Pokemon it would seem, Pikachu in particular.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile

From: xp1337 | Posted: 5/19/2009 3:51:40 AM | #179
The truth is that games = characters.

Samus, Sonic, and Mega Man say hi. Also any Pokemon it would seem, Pikachu in particular.

I don't know if those are the best counterexamples when you consider that Mega Man and Sonic looked like utter **** last year and Pikachu took down the infamous L-Block. Now Samus may be puzzling, but when you consider her awesome character design and her presence in the Smash Bros series, it may not be that odd.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Mega Man and Sonic looked bad, but not nearly as bad as their games are.

Even if you feel they've fallen off the Noble Nine and its only sustained because we haven't had a 1v1 to make it official, I don't think there's too much doubt they'd still be strong. Whereas the Mega Man and Sonic games don't even seem to have that claim.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile

I dunno why I haven't done it yet, but here's my analysis for tomorrow's match.

Simply put, all four of these games are quite good, but three of them are fast-paced button mashers while the fourth is anything but. Does Wind Waker have "slow-paced" STF? Will Diablo II carry StarCraft's torch? Hmmmm...

As for the real match analysis, Super Smash Bros. Melee gets first place easily, and I'm pegging for Wind Waker to be last. Wind Waker was probably SFFd last round, despite the Zelda name, and I don't think the name will save Wind Waker again here. It's a masterpiece that deserves to advance, nuts, even if it's a bit short and badly paced.

The real match is Halo against Diablo II. Diablo II probably has a more hardcore fanbase than Halo, which will lose casual force to the might of Smash and Zelda. I don't think Diablo II threatens SSBM, but I won't be surprised if it did. As of now, I'm pegging Diablo II to advance. That sucks; we have one of the most revolutionary games of this century and awesome artwork combined with tried-and-true gameplay that have to lose to clickfests and button mashers. Though I respect every game in the tourney, and SSBM was an awesome launch title (never mind the fact that it wasn't technically a launch title), and Diablo II is addictive, so...

Diablo II - 25%, Halo - 20%, Super Smash Bros. Melee - 40%, Zelda: Wind Waker - 15%
Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Melee > Zelda: Wind Waker
Bracket: Halo > Super Smash Bros. Melee (my thinking went like "Halo and SSBM are about equal in strength going by the x-stats and list, and Halo benefits from this format, so)
Favorites: Halo > Zelda: Wind Waker
Favorites Bracket: Halo > Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic

FFX easily has this but KH should make it look alot closer once the asv is done
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For those talk about Last Place Factor you do know today is an ALL PS2 MATCH right? For nothing whacky to happen would have been a surprise.

Also I'd sooner believe that the characters overperformed or first place characters under perform in round 1 before I believe in LPF. It makes sense since people do vote in those blowouts and may not be a fan of the character that is suppose to win in a landslide.

So if Last Place Factor does not exist, what happened to:

Midna - SFF by Samus
Shadow - SFF by Bowser
Wario - SFF by Fox in 2007 (though performed the same in round 1) or Link in 2008
Phoenix Wright - Lack of competition in round 1
HK-47 - Lack of competition in round 1
Donkey Kong - SFF by Kirby
Nightmare (twice) - Lack of competition in round 1
Duke Nukem - I'm not sure what happen there, but you can't call it LPF since it should have happened to Freeman
Yoshi - Invalid, Yoshi has never come in 4th.
Ryu - Maybe, but I'd be surprised if Cloud/Samus/Mega Man didn't have a large overlap SFF could have happen...
Zero - I'm pretty sure Zero overperformed in round 2 though that still won't explain what happened
Amaterasu - I'm not touching that 2007 poll, in 2008 she did as expected
Dante - I'd rather give MC an overperformance, in 2008 Kirby overperformed as well
Snake - Finals

It could have been a good list if you didn't blindly add random matches.

The only way I could see LPF working is since everything has overlap and in theory everything is SFFing each other, if slightly. The last place entrant would feel the most of this factor because it has three games SFFing it.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFX > GTA: VC Points: 141/208

You know FFX isn't that bad with the day vote, it held up well against Melee

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=1656&type=0&seconds=60&max=0
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFX > GTA: VC Points: 141/208

Weekend trends probably don't tel us much
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

Wow if FFX an KH making it to next round, the just may help Halo advance in Round 3 if it makes it. Not a bad prediction seeing how crazy this contest is.
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"As a rule, men worry more about what they can't see than about what they can. " - Julius Caesar

MGS2 is way too close to Vice City for my liking. That can't say anything good about it, or MGS3.

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"Lack of competition in Round 1" is ridiculous. The swing in stats from one round to the next on some of those characters is insane.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

Zero was SFFd by Link.

Favorites for the rest of round 2:

Halo > Zelda: Wind Waker
Metal Gear Solid 3 > Oblivion
Half-Life 2 > Resident Evil 4 (yep, I'm voting for Half-Life 2; I changed my mind)
Super Mario Galaxy > Grand Theft Auto IV
Metal Gear Solid 4 > Fallout 3

Current favorites for round 3:
Super Mario Bros. > Tetris
Super Mario Bros. 3 > Super Mario World
Zelda: A Link to the Past > Super Metroid
Chrono Trigger > Super Mario 64
Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Metal Gear Solid

"Lack of competition in Round 1" is ridiculous. The swing in stats from one round to the next on some of those characters is insane.

Well considering a large portion of the votes come from people who vote almost everyday their votes must go somewhere if they don't like the only strong character.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFX > GTA: VC Points: 141/208

I think I have a plausible explanation for Last Place Factor.

For the character in last place, they have to deal with overlapping fanbases from three different entrants. While in 1 vs. 1, just simply both being RPG characters might not be enough to change anything noticeably, when you have all these overlapping fanbases they coalesce on top of one another and drive the 4th pace entrant down. This would explain why SFF appears to exasperate the problem so much, and explains some characters that have avoided LPF as the ones who don't overlap with the characters ahead of them (KOS-MOS, CATS, Yuna, Vergil, Lara, etc.)
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!

From: KamikazePotato | #188
MGS2 is way too close to Vice City for my liking. That can't say anything good about it, or MGS3.

Shouldn't that be a good sign for you? If MGS3 is weak, then that gives ToS a better chance to advance cuz WoW won't be a factor.
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Looks like FFX did a good job pulling away overnight, and KH didn't really pull away from MGS2 that much. FFX has 55% on KH, 59% on MGS2, and 64% on Vice City. KH has 53% on MGS2 and 58.4% on Vice City. MGS2 has 55%+ on Vice City. Looks like the split between FFX and KH is a bit more even now since they've both dropped about the same amount on their performances on MGS2 and Vice City, respectively.

MGS2 isn't really doing that badly, I don't think. I don't know why you'd expect it to get more than 55% on Vice City. You definitely can't use this to say MGS3 is weak or anything.
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I'm expecting KH to get at least 2% during the asv since its with 3 night games.
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FFX isn't really a night game. It's probably the most balanced FF game of them all. During the different timeframes, it ranged from 44.38% (Power Hour) to 47.45% (which was the morning vote, not the night vote, actually). MGS2 is relatively balanced as well. It had a great board vote, but basically, once it fell from that, that was where it stayed. Vice City's the game here with the bad ASV.
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For the record, FFX's morning vote was better than its night vote today as well.
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Are we still using "overperformed/underperformed" as explanations for something we did not expect?

That's so 2003...
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Proud Supporter of Zero

I'd still say FFX is a top 10 game. This performance didn't turn out to be that bad. At the very least, FFX is putting FFVI to shame.

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I will bury you.