GameFAQs Contests

advertisement

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 720

LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 11:56:39 AM | message detail
This is my story and it will go the way I want it to or I'll end it here!

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/18/2009 11:57:57 AM | message detail
Considering how much trouble people have with *spoilers*, I'm thinking quite a few stories ended that day!

---
http://thengamer.com/guru/
transience | Posted 5/18/2009 12:00:47 PM | message detail
man, not you too!
---
xyzzy
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 12:03:10 PM | message detail
Err, helly doo sad wee to you too.
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
XxSoulxX | Posted 5/18/2009 12:07:12 PM | message detail
creative, choose my sig before I completely forget about the bet.

Also, creating another topic for it might be a good idea since I probably won't be reading these anytime soon.
---
Good Times,
Great Memories
Zenithian Legend | Posted 5/18/2009 12:10:03 PM | message detail
How the hell did FFVIII mount such a comeback... let alone take such a lead over Starcraft...

and I had just cracked the leaderboard too.


I'd also like to note that I made the leaderboard now in both the character battle and the greatest games :-p

unfortunately having WoW advancing really far won't help... having never played the game I didn't take into consideration that all of its fans are too busy playing WoW to come vote for it.
---
Detroit Red Wings 2008 Stanley Cup Champions!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/18/2009 4:57:08 PM | message detail
I was impressed with Starcraft early on (duh), but I think I was still correct in saying it had the highest potential to flop out of anything.

I should also note I still think Melee could be in trouble in the divisional final against FFX.
---
`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 4:58:04 PM | message detail
Games like SSBM and KH have reason to be stronger since the last time we saw them, but SSBM will be fine against FFX as long as KH comes along for the ride.
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/18/2009 9:11:20 PM | message detail
Wow, KH cuts FFX

At first I thought RE4 kind of bombed but if KH can hang with FFX I guess not. Or they both bombed? Eh, I won't believe that
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
eaglesarebeasts | Posted 5/18/2009 9:11:52 PM | message detail
Kingdom freakin Hearts ladies and gentlemen
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 9:12:02 PM | message detail
Also, are we ready to drop FFX from the top 10 discussion, or should we hold off? Because we're running out of games...

*refreshes*

Uhhh...Kingdom Hearts, maybe?

This makes RE4 look a little better, too, I suppose.
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/18/2009 9:12:03 PM | message detail
It was always our plan to let KH cut FFX on the second update wait what

what are you doing FFX
---
turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
Master Moltar | Posted 5/18/2009 9:12:40 PM | message detail
KINGDOM HEARTSSSSSSSSSS
---
Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 43 - Bracket: FFX > MP - Vote: MGS2 (143/208)
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/18/2009 9:12:42 PM | message detail
At the time of me typing this, FFX is likely to get 2nd and has a slim chance of not placing at all.

Huh.

---
http://thengamer.com/guru/
Xcarvenger | Posted 5/18/2009 9:12:55 PM | message detail
Goofy > Link confirmed
---
www.board8.wikia.com ~ The definitive source of GFAQs Contests
Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/18/2009 9:13:04 PM | message detail
RE4 to the finals is still alive
---
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif
red sox 777 | Posted 5/18/2009 9:13:17 PM | message detail
Square Deboost confirmed. FFVI, FFVII, CT, and now FFX disappointing.

Alternative Theory: College finals factor is screwing over Square games and they will be fine next round.

Aw yeah overreaction.
---
Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
Gaddswell | Posted 5/18/2009 9:14:01 PM | message detail
Let`s go KH > MGS2!
---
http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png
Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/18/2009 9:14:06 PM | message detail

From: Master Moltar | #013
KINGDOM HEARTSSSSSSSSSS


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7iGuOSfjfJI

Love that.

So much.
---
Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
greatone10 | Posted 5/18/2009 9:14:08 PM | message detail
You know, maybe Kingdom Hearts is a huge powerhouse after all. It could make the finals at this rate.
---
Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/18/2009 9:14:36 PM | message detail
Yeah, assuming FFVIII gets through Round 3 (not a lock at ALL as far as I'm concerned), I don't see any way either FF survives. The Square fanbase splitting is just ridiculous here.
---
turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 9:15:01 PM | message detail
FFVIII had a really low percentage taking it to round 3. Who was the favorite there?

Half-Life?
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
Gaddswell | Posted 5/18/2009 9:15:32 PM | message detail
Whoa there MGS!
---
http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png
Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/18/2009 9:15:34 PM | message detail
FFX is placing

its all about ffx vs kh now
---
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif
eaglesarebeasts | Posted 5/18/2009 9:15:43 PM | message detail
And MGS officially falls off the face of the planet
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/18/2009 9:15:44 PM | message detail
I have MGS2>FFX here.

HAHA I GET 2 POINTS WHILE YOU GUYS GET 1 ISN'T THIS SCORING SYSTEM SPECTACULAR

---
http://thengamer.com/guru/
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/18/2009 9:15:45 PM | message detail
http://www.daxiongames.com/half_life/images/gordon_freeman_big.gif
---
Yoblazer: http://i42.tinypic.com/avk9ie.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
charmander6000 | Posted 5/18/2009 9:15:53 PM | message detail
And MGS2 dies making this a two way race.
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFX > GTA: VC Points: 141/208
Xcarvenger | Posted 5/18/2009 9:15:58 PM | message detail
FFVIII had a really low percentage taking it to round 3. Who was the favorite there?

StarCraft obviously
---
www.board8.wikia.com ~ The definitive source of GFAQs Contests
Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/18/2009 9:16:02 PM | message detail
nice try, MGS2

now let the other two duke it out
---
Today's prediction: Stay away from the FFX 35.87% - Kingdom Hearts 25.16% - Naked Cartwheel 22.14% - Vice City 16.88%
Status:
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 9:16:05 PM | message detail
Looks like MGS2 is outta the race. This is down to FFX and KH now.
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/18/2009 9:16:18 PM | message detail
And despite all that, MGS2 not only fails to capitalize, it's gonna end up close to GTA than to KH !!
---
In-de-structable. Nothing's gonna stop me now.
http://i521.photobucket.com/albums/w333/usagiaruku/1224857053726.jpg
Meeks54 | Posted 5/18/2009 9:16:21 PM | message detail

From: Karma Hunter | #021
Yeah, assuming FFVIII gets through Round 3 (not a lock at ALL as far as I'm concerned), I don't see any way either FF survives. The Square fanbase splitting is just ridiculous here.




It better not be a lock because of Pokemon, I mean, you can't really think what you are implying, right?
---
Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
red sox 777 | Posted 5/18/2009 9:16:26 PM | message detail
Hmm....MGS2 died there. Come on night vote arrive already and help FFX bury Kingdom Hearts.
---
Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/18/2009 9:16:40 PM | message detail
augh people you're backing THIS upset horse

oh lord time to rally for Auron, Jecht, and Tidus against Sora, Donald and Goofy
---
turnturnturn your brain in
http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 9:17:01 PM | message detail
StarCraft obviously

FFVIII had more people taking it out of round 1 than StarCraft did. I wouldn't expect the reverse to be true in round 2.
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/18/2009 9:17:16 PM | message detail
Uh, I love FFX and those three characters but if you're asking me to vote them over freaking Donald and Goofy...

---
http://thengamer.com/guru/
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/18/2009 9:17:57 PM | message detail
MGS pretty much died that time with a 20.98% update. It'll probably return to normal % updates on the next several ones.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
red sox 777 | Posted 5/18/2009 9:18:22 PM | message detail
Don't like any of those 6 characters except for Tidus, so....go FFX!
---
Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
RPGuy96 | Posted 5/18/2009 9:18:28 PM | message detail
And to think just yesterday I was talking about how nothing could possibly take out FFX in the top half, short of FFVIII LFF. Pah, I've been trying to sell FFX short for like three years now (board hype zone) and then I defend it right before it falls on its face.

Should Kingdom Hearts take this, I see no reason why it shouldn't place next round (don't prove me wrong, Diablo II). That means the penultimate match could be Ocarina/FFVIII/Melee/KH...is that good or bad for the Square games?

I think this legitimizes the possibility of KHII escaping its division and maybe getting to the semifinal as well - it has to beat a possibly hindered RE4 that barely outlasted it last round and MGS3, which doesn't appear like a threat after today. Then it'll have two Nintendo (say TP and Brawl), shouldn't be a problem to beat one of them, and MGS4/Fallout 3, which it should be safe against if it can take RE4.

Ocarina/KH/TP/KHII is a pretty hilarious semifinal.
---
Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96
hochiminhX | Posted 5/18/2009 9:19:11 PM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts might beat FFX? Is this some kind of joke?

---
I will bury you.
greatone10 | Posted 5/18/2009 9:19:13 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 5/18/2009 9:17:01 PM | #036
StarCraft obviously

FFVIII had more people taking it out of round 1 than StarCraft did. I wouldn't expect the reverse to be true in round 2.


It may just be that the casuals were split across all the possibilities like Soul Calibur or Chrono Cross.
---
Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 9:20:01 PM | message detail
When did Kingdom Hearts become such a beast anyway?

Sora vs. Sonic/Mega Man/Crono: Who you got?
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
Majin Lou | Posted 5/18/2009 9:20:10 PM | message detail
XD first 0 point day what the **** was I on when I had MGS2 > MP? Yay overrating MGS2 and MP and Square SFF/LFF and yay underrating the strength of FFX and KH?
---
I am absolute corruption.
Pokemon Platinum FC: 1934 6546 0293
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 9:20:32 PM | message detail
About time, FFX!
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/18/2009 9:20:39 PM | message detail
hi night vote
---
Today's prediction: Stay away from the FFX 35.87% - Kingdom Hearts 25.16% - Naked Cartwheel 22.14% - Vice City 16.88%
Status:
Master Moltar | Posted 5/18/2009 9:20:42 PM | message detail
crisis averted
---
Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 43 - Bracket: FFX > MP - Vote: MGS2 (143/208)
eaglesarebeasts | Posted 5/18/2009 9:20:44 PM | message detail
And peace has been restored
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/18/2009 9:21:17 PM | message detail
Sonic/MM/Crono, pretty easily.

I can't imagine the fanbase liking Sora as much as the games. I know KHII made him better, but...he's still Sora.

---
http://thengamer.com/guru/
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/18/2009 9:21:25 PM | message detail
watch kh cut 30 after this
---
http://card.mygamercard.net/geothermal/Albion+Hero.png
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif