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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 719

LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/18/2009 10:38:43 AM | message detail
Old-school Mario platformers have looked very good this round, and me likes that! Super Mario RPG has also impressed somewhat by not being last place in its match.

On the other hand though, Mario Kart has proven to be a big disappointment, and it seems this site truly doesn't care about racing or sports games of any sort. If it did, the series would probably be vastly more popular on this site than it is. Many of us expected Super Mario Kart to take 2nd place in that match because it was a racing game against three adventure titles, but Mario Kart in the end proved to be just as SFF prone as Metroid is, if not more so. I mean, wasn't Mario Kart 64 the overwhelming favorite against Mario RPG? Whoops.

Mario Kart = huge disappointment

Sad, because Mario Kart is an undisputed classic. There are only 30 games in the whole tourney which I would vote for over Super Mario Kart.
red sox 777 | Posted 5/18/2009 10:39:59 AM | message detail
Final Fantasy VIII
Goldeneye
Super Mario RPG
Final Fantasy IX
Mario Kart 64
Starcraft

I think OOT's pack is stronger. Yes, there is a lot of LFF here, but there was also a lot of LFF in FFVII's pack. We've seen how devastating triple SFF can be, and FFVII did not take advantage of it.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 10:42:01 AM | message detail
It's difficult to say how much LFF was in FFVII's match.
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ZFS | Posted 5/18/2009 10:42:44 AM | message detail
Final Fantasy VIII
Goldeneye
Final Fantasy IX
Super Mario RPG
Mario Kart 64
StarCraft

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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/18/2009 10:50:09 AM | message detail
There's not even that much LFF here. Based on FFVIII/StarCraft last round, FFVIII should be getting 34.25% on Ocarina and instead it's getting 31.56%. FFIX's getting hit harder, with 22.42% when it should be getting 28.69%, but I think that's more due to SFF than LFF. And, since the FFVIII number is based on StarCraft, which is going to fall relative to Ocarina with the ASV, it's going to look like even less LFF by the time the match is over.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/18/2009 10:57:01 AM | message detail
Final Fantasy VIII
GoldenEye
Super Mario RPG
StarCraft
Final Fantasy IX
Mario Kart 64

And wow, the 2004 stats project Chrono Trigger to score 58% on Mario 64. Look how well that went.

Stars of the Round: Super Mario Bros., Sonic the Hedgehog, Super Mario World, Super Metroid, Super Mario RPG, Super Mario 64
Turds of the Round: Street Fighter II, Super Mario Kart, Mario Kart 64, Chrono Trigger, Metal Gear Solid
hochiminhX | Posted 5/18/2009 10:58:04 AM | message detail
There's not even that much LFF here. Based on FFVIII/StarCraft last round, FFVIII should be getting 34.25% on Ocarina and instead it's getting 31.56%


Of course there is. FF8 went from destroying SC to barely beating it. Comparing to what "it should get" on OoT makes no sense at all, especially in a four-way all. That post is rejected.

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/18/2009 11:00:42 AM | message detail
And wow, the 2004 stats project Chrono Trigger to score 58% on Mario 64. Look how well that went.

You mean the Adjusted 2004 stats, which were adjusted based on essentially guesswork.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/18/2009 11:02:31 AM | message detail
My dear hochi, if you prefer it in FFVIII/StarCraft terms I'd be happy to oblige. StarCraft went from 39% against FFVIII to 42% against it. That is not particularly heavy LFF.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/18/2009 11:10:24 AM | message detail
44% not 42%
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Karma Hunter | Posted 5/18/2009 11:16:36 AM | message detail
There's no real evaluating how heavily FF8 or FF9 are being hurt here relative to last round, as as I'm sure we all remember both were being hurt by Xenogears and Chrono Cross respectively. Certainly not to the extent that each game is being hurt here today, of course, but I definitely wouldn't act like it's trivial here.

As for the FF7/OoT comparisons, I'd have to say that OoT is certainly looking stronger at this point - but again, that's only one piece of the puzzle it has to complete if it actually wants to win this thing. LttP or SMB3 certainly look like near-locks for the finals at this point considering that CT and FFVI have pretty much disqualified themselves regardless of what FF7 does to them, while the conventional wisdom now is that FFVIII and FFX are going to hit each other. I don't see how they don't cannibalize themselves enough for Melee to take an easy win there if it happens, OoT be damned.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/18/2009 11:19:39 AM | message detail
Ah, my apologies. 44% it is...we'll see how that holds up in the day.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 11:39:52 AM | message detail
I'd expect StarCraft to gain percentage on FFVIII during the day like it did last time, though every game is going to go down overall.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 11:45:41 AM | message detail
And there's StarCraft cutting FFVIII!

So how is everyone expecting tomorrow to play out?
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/18/2009 11:46:38 AM | message detail
Starcraft gets its first cut in 11 hours, hurray!
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/18/2009 11:49:23 AM | message detail
No idea if MGS2 or KH wins, but it should be pretty obvious early on. MGS2 is going to need quite the lead to deal with KH's day vote.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 11:51:49 AM | message detail
MGS2's day vote wasn't really that bad last round though. It doesn't seem to be as bad as MGS's anyway, but yeah, it'll need to be on top early and by a lot.
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ffmasterjose | Posted 5/18/2009 11:51:50 AM | message detail
*just saw the poll for the first time today*

*insert Tiger Woods*

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142/200 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > FFVIII | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/18/2009 11:52:03 AM | message detail
Hard for me to see anything but FFX>KH.

Rooting for MGS2, though.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 11:53:25 AM | message detail
Eh, I can definitely see FFX > MGS2 because KH's win last round looks less impressive as we watched the other GTAs bomb. FFX is probably a step above KH in strength, but I don't know how much SFF/LFF will be there. Sora has stood up like a champ against Squall three out of four times they've faced.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/18/2009 11:55:11 AM | message detail
I have FFX > Melee in the division finals, so whatever makes it easier for FFX there I am doomed aren't I.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/18/2009 11:56:08 AM | message detail
OOT with a 55% update and Starcraft stalling FFVIII. Floodgates are about to open.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/18/2009 11:56:24 AM | message detail
Metroid Prime'd
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syco_coaster | Posted 5/18/2009 11:57:05 AM | message detail
I don't see two Square games in first and second. I think MGS2 has an easy second.
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Current Score: 152
Today's pick: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Final Fantasy 8
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 11:57:26 AM | message detail
My bracket has FFX > MGS2, so two straight days of full points would be nice!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/18/2009 11:57:27 AM | message detail
Shoot for 49, Hero of Time!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 5/18/2009 11:58:45 AM | message detail
It was also hard to see two Square protagonists advance in Squall/Sora/Yoshi/Fox, but it happened - comfortably. Granted, there's nothing bringing MGS2 down like Fox did to Yoshi, but I'd feel a lot better if all these games didn't share the same console.
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ffmasterjose | Posted 5/18/2009 12:08:06 PM | message detail
Well Ulti, I have to hand it to you for convincing me to take FF8 in the end with your "StarCraft gonna flop!" talk. The 6 points were definitely worth it :D

*looks at rest of bracket*

Man I'm screwed

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142/200 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > FFVIII | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/18/2009 12:11:30 PM | message detail
What Leon and I were arguing just as hard (this is the moment where everyone should conveniently forget that I have Metroid Prime winning tomorrow).
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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/18/2009 12:15:49 PM | message detail
So Starcraft screwed me over once again. Good work!
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AmazingKirby | Posted 5/18/2009 12:41:44 PM | message detail
I haven't gotten full points for any match this round, and I won't get them today either. =(

In fact, I might not get a single match right in the second round...
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/18/2009 12:44:32 PM | message detail
You didn't have SMW > FFIV or FFVII > GE? MGS4 > FO3 is still likely.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 12:45:38 PM | message detail
Some people (like me) had SMW > MM3 because we didn't expect MM3 to suck so much and we expected FFI/FFIV LFF to be brutal. Got it half right at least.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/18/2009 12:46:36 PM | message detail
You guys didn't expect MM3 to be SFF by SMW?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
HaRRicH | Posted 5/18/2009 12:46:40 PM | message detail
LoZ:OoT matched FF7's percentage on probably a stronger set of opponents before the ASV...that's all I really need to see. LoZ:OoT > FF7 looks to be what's up until further notice with me, though they'll obviously still be pretty close to each other. It's all about getting it an opponent it can crush though...let's go SM64!

It's also amazing how undignified Starcraft fans must have been in 2004 to pull what they did then despite what we're seeing now. I'm sure it was naturally stronger in 2004, too, but this is huge.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/18/2009 12:49:59 PM | message detail
The thing is Starcraft/Halo was hyped for weeks, everyone on battle.net knew it was coming.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
AmazingKirby | Posted 5/18/2009 12:58:56 PM | message detail
You didn't have SMW > FFIV or FFVII > GE? MGS4 > FO3 is still likely.

Oh. That's the thing. I kept seeing "FF2" in the bracket thinking it was the real FFII, not FFIV. Stupid. And I had FFVII > MK64. >_>

The rest of my picks are:

FFX > MGS2 (But I want KH to win, so forget this.)
SSBM > Halo
MGS3 > WoW
TP > RE4 (But I want KH2 to win.)
CoD 4 > SSBB
MGS4 > FO3
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lightsout06 | Posted 5/18/2009 1:01:33 PM | message detail
SSBM > Halo and MSG4 > FO3 should be right
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 1:05:02 PM | message detail
Most of those picks are right, actually.
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ffmasterjose | Posted 5/18/2009 1:11:12 PM | message detail
Some people (like me) had SMW > MM3 because we didn't expect MM3 to suck so much and we expected FFI/FFIV LFF to be brutal. Got it half right at least.

Precisely. Damn you Blue BOMBER

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142/200 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > FFVIII | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
lightsout06 | Posted 5/18/2009 1:15:22 PM | message detail
The MC needs to make his appearance in round 2. There has not been a match worth watching in the ASV this round.
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"As a rule, men worry more about what they can't see than about what they can. " - Julius Caesar
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 1:26:57 PM | message detail
Looks like OoT may push FFVIII under 30% by the end of this.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/18/2009 1:40:21 PM | message detail
Never again will I make fun of the stats topic for overreaction.

After the Magic beat the Celtics last night, Charles Barkley picked the Magic to beat the Cavs and Chris Webber called the Magic the best team in the NBA. All because the Magic had a hot hand from 3 and beat a tired Celtics team playing something like it's 200th game since the beginning of last year. And the Celts were running something like a 7 man rotation because of injuries. Gimme a break. The Cavs will beat Orlando in 5 games, tops.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 1:56:40 PM | message detail
Well, they forgot that whole "Cavs are invincible at home" thing and the fact that they have home court, so yeah. If they'd beaten the Celtics with Kevin Garnett, that'd be different, but they didn't.
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voltch | Posted 5/18/2009 2:54:58 PM | message detail
huh,who are these people?
me no follow BBall.
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It's not fair if FF is in the title it always wins.
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transients | Posted 5/18/2009 2:57:15 PM | message detail
OOT is a monster.
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 5/18/2009 3:06:13 PM | message detail
I'm waiting to see a 60% update.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/18/2009 3:35:25 PM | message detail
I figured MGS2 should be the favorite today, but I didn't realize just how badly FFX beat it up. That 62% win is much bigger than what Melee managed in 2004, so even if MGS2 dropped significantly, it still may have been console SFF'd. With four PS2 games in the mix, there'll be a ton of overlap to go around. Even if KH gets the worst of it, it might not be enough for Metal Gear.

And yes, Ocarina is putting its division through the meat grinder (that's my favorite "really strong thing" analogy).
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Master Moltar | Posted 5/18/2009 3:57:23 PM | message detail
geez Ocarina. Definitely looks better than FF7 at them moment. The winner is going to come down to the other two games in the match though (which sux)

KH vs. MGS2 should be good. I would imagine KH is hurt more by FFX, but who knows.
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Match 42 - Bracket: OoT > FF8 - Vote: OoT (135/200)
creativename | Posted 5/18/2009 4:10:18 PM | message detail
Calling RBY a top 10 game is infinitely worse than saying the Magic will beat the Cavs, because the Magic have at absolute bare minimum a 15% chance to do so. The series price is currently +480/-430, implying about an 18%-19% chance for the Magic. There was never any chance of RBY being top 10.

huh,who are these people?
me no follow BBall.


If you've never heard of Charles Barkley, you must not live in the United States I'm guessing.

On today's match, the results look a lot different now than last night - the LFF situation looks much better for Final Fantasy now. Looks like the logic that the new-school Final Fantasys LFF less than the old-school ones did was correct (I forget who the first to bring that up was). FF8 last round got 61.15% on Starcraft, getting about 56% here - quite an acceptable difference.

That looks good for FF7/FFX as well, since they're also different generations. Also good for FF8/FFX for that matter.

Though FF8 looks weaker now. Going by Starcraft's percent on OoT right now and FF8's percent on Starcraft last round, FF8 gets about 32.6% on OoT. Looks like FF8 vs. MGS might be a match after all. Of course, that doesn't account for any Xenogears LFF in the 1st round, though that probably wouldn't add more than a couple points to FF8's number.
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