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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 719

Lopen | Posted 5/18/2009 12:06:34 AM | message detail
Hmmm. Starcraft always has close matches so I'm not sure why I called for a beatdown here. Regardless, the very fact that this match is close against "The Man" makes me think the x-factors line up for Starcraft here unless it gets obliterated by the dead hours (which it could)

Go, HATECRAFT, CRUSH THEM!
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alexazx | Posted 5/18/2009 12:30:10 AM | message detail
Starcraft or FFVIII? It doesn't really matter because neither game have got a chance against MGS and Pokemon anyway. Still, I would rather see the RPG FFVIII making it, because that would weaken Pokemon in the next round quite a bit. MGS is definately in my top 3 games of all time, so I would be disappointed if it got eliminated by Pokemon in the next round.
CP724 | Posted 5/18/2009 12:35:28 AM | message detail
FFVIII has got this easily. It Should end something like 55-45 according to last round's trends. Also what at above poster? MGS is going to lose to FFVIII next round handily.
hochiminhX | Posted 5/18/2009 12:45:46 AM | message detail
OoT currently has a meager 58.37% on FF8 + FF9. Not really that impressive when you think about it. If OoT = FFVII, suddenly FF8 > Lttp. Food for thought.

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I will bury you.
CP724 | Posted 5/18/2009 12:48:57 AM | message detail
That's assuming 100% of FFIX's votes go to FFVIII. It's probably more like 80% at most.
hochiminhX | Posted 5/18/2009 12:50:05 AM | message detail
Actually, it's probably closer to 120% due to MFFDSF


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I will bury you.
Lopen | Posted 5/18/2009 12:51:32 AM | message detail
This match is still close. Don't doubt Starcraft in a close match, is all I'm sayin!
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/18/2009 12:52:41 AM | message detail
I don't think anyone cares about Starcraft like they used to for that to matter.
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transience | Posted 5/18/2009 12:57:25 AM | message detail
I kinda like Starcraft here, honestly. this block was AWFUL to it last time and it's only making modest gains. FF8 should be the favourite but I wouldn't count Starcraft out, especially if anything weird happens. I don't think anything weird *will* happen but you never know.
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xyzzy
CP724 | Posted 5/18/2009 1:07:30 AM | message detail
Yeah it is actually holding up decently compared to last time. These next two hours should be brutal though.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/18/2009 1:09:26 AM | message detail
Okay, I did some vote total stats and unfortunately my data once again got erased. Nuts. What I remember is that Metal Gear Solid kept over 94% of its votes from last round (good job!), Majora's Mask surprisingly kept 81%, Pokemon GS did average with 61%, and RBY could only keept 56% of its votes from last round. Everybody scored over 25k votes, and MGS looks stronger than Chrono Trigger right now if you go just by vote totals (though Link's Awakening > Sonic 2 showed that I shouldn't trust them unless the two games in question were in the same match in the previous round, like Sonic 1 > SFII or FFVIII > StarCraft).

As for the x-stats, Pokemon > MGS??? What the hell???
BOOMSHAKALAKA1 | Posted 5/18/2009 1:44:24 AM | message detail
OoT is getting owned now, but itll go up once the fanboy americans wake up
CP724 | Posted 5/18/2009 1:54:10 AM | message detail
Haha, 12% update for SC.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/18/2009 2:28:16 AM | message detail
Eh, time to analyze the next match.

Oh, goody, goody, we're back in the 21st century! And it's time for Final Fantasy X to show that it's elite stuff. I like how FFX is actually different from its PlayStation predecessors versus Pokemon/Zelda/Smash games rehashing the same design. OK, screw it, I've never played any game in this pack, but I have respect for every game in the tourney regardless of whether I've played it or not. The big question for this match is whether Final Fantasy X will SFF Kingdom Hearts into the ground. Uhm, I'll say no to that. Here are some facts.

KH beat GTA: VC by 18k votes last round.
Tidus was SFFd by Squall more than Sora was.
Final Fantasy X can't SFF anything well (see where it failed to double Final Fantasy Tactics Advance).

Besides, Kingdom Hearts is a cool and innovative game that deserves to make it out of this match alive. I wish Metroid Prime were here, but whatever. I think Vice City manages last place easily; MGS2 will benefit from franchise voting and all of Vice City's kindred has failed so far. Ultimately, I'm relying on Kingdom Hearts to snatch up a good (2nd place) win.

Final Fantasy X - 30.47%, Metal Gear Solid 2 - 22.44%, Kingdom Hearts - 28.33%, Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 18.77%
Prediction: Final Fantasy X > Kingdom Hearts
Bracket: Final Fantasy X > Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (at least this isn't as bad as what SOME people picked!!!)
Favorites: Final Fantasy X > Kingdom Hearts
Favorites Bracket: Metroid Prime > Final Fantasy X

BTW am I the only one who doesn't think Metroid Prime was very disappointing?
CP724 | Posted 5/18/2009 3:18:36 AM | message detail
Wow, FFVIII just tripled SC that update.
Sonic_Factor | Posted 5/18/2009 3:23:44 AM | message detail
OoT's starting to stall it's % loss.. assuming it doesnt dip into 44%s.. it seems it could possible finish as high as 48+ looking at it's first round.
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He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.
transience | Posted 5/18/2009 3:42:37 AM | message detail
yeah, this is gonna take something very unnatural to win. Crono/Vincent confirmed!
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xyzzy
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter
red sox 777 | Posted 5/18/2009 4:57:00 AM | message detail
FFVIII has 54.05% on Starcraft now. From here to the end last round, FFVIII gained 1.53%.

Projection: FFVIII wins with 55.58%.

But, we know that was a weekend when we were still in the full swing of the late night/early morning vote, and that's not the case here. FFVIII may have already finished its percentages gains today. Nonetheless, Starcraft cannot expect to make any gains until the last 6 hours, and it needs to somehow hold FFVIII's gains to 1100 or so.......very, very difficult indeed.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/18/2009 5:02:08 AM | message detail
Starcraft by the hour against Final Fantasy VIII:

1:00 | 51.13%
2:00 | 49.50%
3:00 | 47.26%
4:00 | 44.76%
5:00 | 41.13%
6:00 | 38.58%
7:00 | 37.36%
8:00 | 39.41%
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transience | Posted 5/18/2009 5:07:24 AM | message detail
Starcraft's going against FF9 at this point, not FF8. check out that massive stall FF9 has put on it since morning.
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xyzzy
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/18/2009 5:14:03 AM | message detail
Uhm, go full motion love story?

Though I like how the Best. Game. Ever. is dominating this poll like nobody's business. Methinks these guys are stronger than what Final Fantasy VII is against.

And methinks Final Fantasy VIII will advance from this division. In round 3, we will get to see FFVIII unhindered by other Square titles (though it's possible that it overlaps with MGS).

So here's what I think our top 10 are.

1. Zelda: Ocarina of Time
2. Final Fantasy VII
3. Zelda: A Link to the Past
4. Super Mario Bros. 3
5. Super Mario 64
6. Chrono Trigger
7. Super Mario World
8. Super Smash Bros. Melee
9. Super Smash Bros. Brawl
10. Final Fantasy X
red sox 777 | Posted 5/18/2009 5:16:48 AM | message detail
Going by Squall, FFVIII has a pretty bad ASV. Losing 1700 votes starting from 4400 up in a 4-way requires a pretty bad ASV, even against Sora. By comparison, Magus losing 2500 votes to Sandbag from 2100 up is rather tame, though that probably just means that Sora > Sandbag at the ASV. FFVIII may be well beyond the point of no return before we even get to 3 PM though.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/18/2009 5:26:34 AM | message detail
FFVIII has this, whoever said Starcraft would be closer to IX by the end is looking to be right.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/18/2009 5:28:16 AM | message detail
Well, I thought Ocarina of Time would only score 40% and its going to shatter that mark. Also I thought that StarCraft would have equal distance from both Final Fantasies.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/18/2009 5:37:08 AM | message detail
Ocarina of Time is doing about expected, which means it will overperform at the end of the ASV.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
red sox 777 | Posted 5/18/2009 5:38:26 AM | message detail
OOT's going to beat FFVII's percentage I think, barring a miracle rally from Starcraft at the end that brings everyone else's percentage down.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/18/2009 6:29:04 AM | message detail
So about tomorrow's match...

Does Kingdom Hearts get SFF letting Metal Gear Solid 2 through or will it live to fight another day?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
red sox 777 | Posted 5/18/2009 6:50:03 AM | message detail
Looks like Starcraft is finally stalling out its percentages losses while FFVIII and IX have peaked and OOT is finally going up for real. Day vote has started for real now- it looks like we may have a rather mixed day vote between typical school year weekday trends and weekend/summer trends with OOT just teasing us at 6 and not making a serious move until 9.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 5/18/2009 6:54:57 AM | message detail
I would have told you a few days ago that KH didn't have a chance as it was going to be pounded into the ground by FFX... but honestly, these recipients of SFF haven't been taking the licks that I would have expected out of them. Granted, KH's performance on its pack doesn't seem so great one round later, but I'd have to give it an edge tomorrow against MGS2.

(by which I mean never surrender ready the rallies)
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/18/2009 6:57:30 AM | message detail
I still like MGS2 there. LFF alone might be enough to push MGS2 to a win; SFF from FFX would be excellent of course.
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lightsout06 | Posted 5/18/2009 6:58:14 AM | message detail
FFIX by far has the best match pic, and it is still getting beat to ground. Why do people like FFVIII so much FFIX is so much better than it.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/18/2009 7:02:19 AM | message detail
Starcraft by the hour against Final Fantasy VIII:

1:00 | 51.13%
2:00 | 49.50%
3:00 | 47.26%
4:00 | 44.76%
5:00 | 41.13%
6:00 | 38.58%
7:00 | 37.36%
8:00 | 39.41%
9:00 | 39.67%
10:00 | 43.36%
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 7:10:46 AM | message detail
Wow, FFVIII really brutalized StarCraft overnight, just like last time. Its lead is about to be larger on StarCraft than StarCraft's is on FFIX, and it's only increased the lead on FFIX by like 200 since 4 A.M.

FFVIII is getting 64.39% on FFIX as of right now. Based on a constant StarCraft, it gets 33.97% on Ocarina of Time, which is pretty good. FFIX got 28.40% on OoT last round, which would give FFVIII 58.20% on FFIX indirectly.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/18/2009 7:27:19 AM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #233
FFVIII is getting 64.39% on FFIX as of right now .... FFIX got 28.40% on OoT last round


Are you using 2 different ways to calculate that or something? Those values don't match up. FF9 getting 28.4% on OoT is just the standard add them together and divide their individual value by the total. But the FF8 value obviously doesn't do that since that only comes out to a bit over 61%
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Master Moltar | Posted 5/18/2009 7:30:12 AM | message detail
Hmm, I expected to see FF8 in second, but I didn't expect to see that Starcraft pretty much died 20 minutes after I left last night. Though it would at least hold out for a few more hours.

Anyway, good recovery for FF8, and I like those numbers in comparison to FF9. The rest of this match belongs to OoT, but it did what it needed to today.
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 42 - Bracket: OoT > FF8 - Vote: OoT (135/200)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 7:51:11 AM | message detail
StarCraft is now closer to FFIX than it is to FFVIII.

And I did miscalculate the FFVIII/FFIX ratio. Yeah, it's 61.58% there.

So...MGS/RBY/OoT/FFVIII: Who you got?
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/18/2009 7:53:29 AM | message detail
Are you using 2 different ways to calculate that or something? Those values don't match up. FF9 getting 28.4% on OoT is just the standard add them together and divide their individual value by the total. But the FF8 value obviously doesn't do that since that only comes out to a bit over 61%

He used OoT as the base and calculated it like you would for the x-stats.

And there's the flaw of the x-stat system.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/18/2009 7:54:30 AM | message detail
Man, StarCraft is really dying right now. OoT is starting to go up, and it's almost entirely at StarCraft's expense.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/18/2009 8:04:21 AM | message detail
I like OOT > FFVIII > MGS > RBY. Don't think RBY is going to overcome a 56-44 gap by replacing GS and MM with OOT.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/18/2009 8:10:25 AM | message detail
I currently have them pegged all pretty close to each other, though I have to agree with you on the order of favourites to advance.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/18/2009 8:30:39 AM | message detail
@LeonhartFour: Proof of Same Year SFF?

The consensus for tomorrow's match seems to be that Final Fantasy X will take first (like it should) and Vice City will be last without a question. I personally think that Kingdom Hearts should be able to resist SFF well. If you remember correctly, FFX isn't very good at SFFing stuff. Also Squall SFFd Tidus much more than he SFFd Sora. But I'm just repeating what I already posted...anyway, my projected percentages for the match were the exact same percentages in the Squall/Sora/Yoshi/Fox match last year.

Final Fantasy X = Squall
Kingdom Hearts = Sora
Metal Gear Solid 2 = Yoshi
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City = Fox

ho ho ho

And I'm listening to music from Dragon Spirit.
voltch | Posted 5/18/2009 8:45:33 AM | message detail
I was out for a few days,but what happened with SM64?
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/18/2009 8:46:33 AM | message detail
Except Vice City won't stop MGS2. KH has a chance if it's close to FFX where even LFF won't cause it to lose.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
charmander6000 | Posted 5/18/2009 8:49:06 AM | message detail
I was out for a few days,but what happened with SM64?

It's actually the third strongest game on the site. >_>

Seriously though, everything Mario has performed above expectations except SMB3, YI (not that we had expectations) and MK64 (Console SFF by GE)
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/18/2009 8:54:00 AM | message detail
Yeah that Galaxy sure stunned us with its beating Pokemon Diamond/Pearl by three thousand less votes than it got smashed by CoD4
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/18/2009 8:56:24 AM | message detail
That was round 1. Round 2 is the round that Mario has been dominating! But...uh....new Nintendo sucks and is going to keep right on crashing and burning Galaxy shall be more fuel for Brawl's funeral pyre.
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 5/18/2009 8:56:48 AM | message detail
FF8 is going to get 2nd next round fairly easily. It'll be interesting to see how close it can get to OoT.
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ZFS | Posted 5/18/2009 9:01:53 AM | message detail
Whoa. FFVIII totally killed StarCraft overnight. Good show. Glad I picked it here!

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/18/2009 9:08:39 AM | message detail
FF8 is going to get 2nd next round fairly easily. It'll be interesting to see how close it can get to OoT.

Based on Starcraft FFVIII should be getting just under 35%
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/18/2009 9:20:50 AM | message detail
Hmm...RBY can still advance, but it's going to have to hold up like and absolute pro to OoT. Not impossible, but OoT>FFVIII>RBY>MGS seems likely.

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