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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 719

red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:29:03 PM | message detail
Also, I think the probability of Starcraft advancing next round given that it wins here is considerably better than the probability of it winning here. MGS and an OOT'd RBY aren't going to stop an exponentially growing fleet of carriers.
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PunchingPower | Posted 5/17/2009 9:29:07 PM | message detail
It's very hard to spin this for FFVII right now. I'd be generous to call the battle for #1 a toss-up right now, but I can't call FFVII the favorite. Other than SMW's fluke match a few days ago, Ocarina has definitely put up the two strongest looking performances.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:29:47 PM | message detail
Damn you Mario 64 for crashing my LttP bandwagon.

Seriously that was like my first reaction to the bracket.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/17/2009 9:30:08 PM | message detail
So OoT has 72% on SC right now, compared to the 60% the 2004 x-stats say.

Speculation ahoy!
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:30:41 PM | message detail
Ouch looks like OoT died there.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
Gaddswell | Posted 5/17/2009 9:31:02 PM | message detail
That's 2 cuts by FF8 in a row!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 9:31:12 PM | message detail
Oh the world is cruel to you.

Ceej was the worst about putting my favorite characters against each other.

Squall/Tidus
Squall/Snake (three times)
Squall/Luigi
Squall/Kirby
Squall/Knuckles
Squall/Cloud (twice)
Tidus/Kirby
Kirby/Ramza
Kirby/Luigi
Snake/Knuckles (three times)
Snake/Ryu
Cloud/Ryu
Cloud/Vyse
Snake/Vyse

Maybe more than that.
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PunchingPower | Posted 5/17/2009 9:31:22 PM | message detail
Ocarina is doomed burns bracket
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/17/2009 9:31:57 PM | message detail
Let's not get ahead of ourselves with Starcraft. Or do I need to point out that - in its best possible position - it's still getting absolutely hammered by OoT?

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 9:32:47 PM | message detail
Yeah, I think MGS could manage 30% on OoT fairly. StarCraft ain't even gettin' that.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:33:09 PM | message detail
I'm not sure how people can say Starcraft has a chance next round. It's currently getting the same that MGS got against FFVII in 2004. Since then MGS has grown stronger plus there's the possibility that it was SFF in that match. It's going to need all the carriers it can get for next round.

Also since FFVIII is coming back we won't need to worry about that.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:33:54 PM | message detail
RBY and MGS would also get hammered by OOT. And SC will more likely than not pull off its trick of increasing in strength every round.
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L33t_Rappa_Sam | Posted 5/17/2009 9:34:04 PM | message detail

From: Meeks54 | #083
I was at work from 10 am to to 10 pm today. I checked the polls at work hoping to see change. Damn Gold and Silver fans. WTF is wrong with you? Most of the time Nintendo fans get it, and they will let their character die to help another one. Why not Pokemon fans yesterday. Hell, that is the problem right now. FF IX is the much better game, but people need to vote FF VIII so we can kill off this overrated piece of trash from Blizzard. Finally, I will actually request off the day of the final, as I want to be here all day watching OoT romp on FF VII's carcus.

Ocarina of Time, the winner of Best Game Ever II.


**** you for telling me how I should vote. Just because I think one game is fun and another game from the same series is trash, I should vote for the trashy game to support a franchise I don't even care about anymore so that it beats a game I never really played?

Screw that bologna, I voted for the one game on this poll I don't think completely sucks and now I don't have to live my life with any regrets.
creativename | Posted 5/17/2009 9:34:13 PM | message detail
It's very hard to spin this for FFVII right now. I'd be generous to call the battle for #1 a toss-up right now, but I can't call FFVII the favorite. Other than SMW's fluke match a few days ago, Ocarina has definitely put up the two strongest looking performances.

If you think FFX makes the final, I think you pretty much have to peg OoT as the favorite. The question for FF7 is does FFX make it.

Final Fantasy fans like me can't win - at some point, somebody's going to need to be sacrificed, Mayan style.

Squall/Snake (three times)
Snake/Knuckles (three times)


So sad.

Snake bad.
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Gr8CyberMonkey | Posted 5/17/2009 9:34:22 PM | message detail
FFVIII will come back if only because I'm not allowed to get full points on any match this round.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:34:26 PM | message detail
Why would MGS be hurt by OoT?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 9:35:30 PM | message detail
OoT finally coming back down a bit.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:36:02 PM | message detail
FFVIII is going to need to rock the night like MGS did or it might die to rallying.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:36:32 PM | message detail
It wouldn't, but it's much weaker than OOT nonetheless. (By the way, I think FFVIII is still the favorite in this match, and I only said that SC's chances of winning the next one given a win here are larger than its chances of winning this one).
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 9:36:38 PM | message detail
And SC will more likely than not pull off its trick of increasing in strength every round.

...Why are you talking like it's an inherent part of StarCraft's strength? That's like saying it's an inherent part of L-Block's strength. Last year proved that was wrong.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:36:42 PM | message detail
Why would MGS be hurt by OoT?

The same reason everything else loses % when facing stronger competition.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:37:08 PM | message detail
I'd love for Starcraft to win this, but I don't see how it does, I'm just impressed it's in the lead, I figured FF8 would be up by the freeze, or the 10 minute mark at the latest.

However, I'd enjoy being proven wrong!
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/17/2009 9:38:01 PM | message detail
I think it's pretty safe to say that FF8 will take off overnight. I doubt Starcraft advances here.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/17/2009 9:39:44 PM | message detail
Starcraft should also have a good night vote as well.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:40:03 PM | message detail
The same reason everything else loses % when facing stronger competition.

Let's try this again. Why would MGS be hurt more than Starcraft against OoT?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 9:40:47 PM | message detail
FFVIII keeps making small cuts, and now OoT's falling as fast as it was going up earlier.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:41:02 PM | message detail
At this rate not even the Canadians can save Starcraft.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 9:41:12 PM | message detail
Starcraft should also have a good night vote as well.

FFVIII destroyed it overnight last round.
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creativename | Posted 5/17/2009 9:41:38 PM | message detail
What day of the week was the last FF8 match?
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:41:44 PM | message detail
Starcraft should also have a good night vote as well.

Nope SC is pretty average at night.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 9:41:53 PM | message detail
Saturday.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/17/2009 9:42:40 PM | message detail
FFVIII destroyed it overnight last round.

Post the trends for that match and let me look at it. Make sure all 4 games are present in the trend chart for that match.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:43:18 PM | message detail
I don't think FFVIII's going to get the lead until 4 AM at earliest. But, let's look at some projections based on last round:

At 00:40, FFVIII had 55.71% and it ended at 61.15%.
Currently, Starcraft has 51.11%.

Projection: FFVIII wins with 54.33%.

Assuming FFVIII finishes with 20% and we end up with 140,000 votes today, that margin equals 4463 votes, about 2000 beyond Starcraft's demonstrated rallying range.
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creativename | Posted 5/17/2009 9:43:19 PM | message detail
Let's try this again. Why would MGS be hurt more than Starcraft against OoT?

Well the douchey answer like that other would be..."MGS will be hurt more because it is stronger, thus it will lose more raw points" :)
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 9:44:45 PM | message detail
Time | FFVIII | S. Calibur | StarCraft | Xenogears | Demographic
EBV | 39.68% | 16.25% | 31.39% | 12.67% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 39.76% | 14.67% | 31.73% | 13.84% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 42.84% | 14.11% | 29.21% | 13.84% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 47.56% | 16.34% | 24.40% | 11.69% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 44.80% | 16.48% | 26.69% | 12.03% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 43.84% | 15.33% | 28.17% | 12.67% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 43.92% | 14.53% | 27.77% | 13.78% | (22:00-24:00)
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The Real Truth | Posted 5/17/2009 9:45:14 PM | message detail
Oh man 4 ways are so bad
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creativename | Posted 5/17/2009 9:46:03 PM | message detail
Assuming FFVIII finishes with 20% and we end up with 140,000 votes today, that margin equals 4463 votes, about 2000 beyond Starcraft's demonstrated rallying range.

Man you let things go slowly red sox :) It's admirable in you though because of the way you handle it.

I don't really need to tell you this I know, but oh well - that was before the new cheat methods were in place.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:46:31 PM | message detail
Well the douchey answer like that other would be..."MGS will be hurt more because it is stronger, thus it will lose more raw points" :)

Uhh... so MGS > Starcraft am I right?

>_>
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:46:49 PM | message detail
Starcraft's gonna win this guys. Trust me, Ocarina of Time is dead in the water.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:47:33 PM | message detail
Starcraft's gonna win this guys. Trust me, Ocarina of Time is dead in the water.

Starcraft had that Nintendo 64 release, right? Come the ASV, Starcraft is going to just SFF OoT into the ground. Next.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/17/2009 9:47:41 PM | message detail
Well, looking at that trend chart, that was a pretty good night vote for Starcraft. It beats out all of the other time periods besides the early vote and power hour, which was expected for the most part.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:48:02 PM | message detail
Well I'm not going to argue the point. I'll just say BELIEVE!!! instead.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 9:48:30 PM | message detail
Yeah, but FFVIII went up during the night and StarCraft went down after the first hour. I'd expect the same thing to happen here.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/17/2009 9:48:45 PM | message detail
Frankly, I think you're in denial if you think FF7 is going to win this contest.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 9:49:17 PM | message detail
Surely you jest!
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:52:45 PM | message detail
The last time I've gotten full points on a final was back in 2004. I did get the ToC and BR final correct though.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 9:53:52 PM | message detail
I don't know if I've ever gotten one. Let me see...Well, there was the Villains Contest, but that was obvious.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:54:50 PM | message detail
Mario > Crono 2k5, aw yeah
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 9:55:22 PM | message detail
Wait, I forgot the Villains Contest.

If I took Diablo instead of Ridley I would have won a prize.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: OoT > Starcraft Points: 137/200
syco_coaster | Posted 5/17/2009 9:55:58 PM | message detail
I think FF7 will win because it'll be the only FF in the final.
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Current Score: 152
Today's pick: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Final Fantasy 8