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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 718

PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:04:35 PM | message detail
Im surprised that the next match analysis isn't posted yet. Usually Charmander has it up before the final hour of the current match.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
Dilated Chemist | Posted 5/17/2009 8:05:32 PM | message detail
I'm gonna say FACT!

DUH.

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[ FINAL FOUR ] FFVII / SMB3 / LoZ: OoT / MGS
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=161
MetricTrout | Posted 5/17/2009 8:07:15 PM | message detail
Also, FF8 will not SFF the hell out of FF9. You know why?

A lot of people prefer FF9 over FF8.
A lot of people prefer Pokemon GSC over Pokemon RBY
Not many people prefer FF1 over FF2
Not many people cared much about Yoshi's Island to begin with.

See a pattern here?
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
Dilated Chemist | Posted 5/17/2009 8:09:13 PM | message detail
Alot of people have bad taste.

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[ FINAL FOUR ] FFVII / SMB3 / LoZ: OoT / MGS
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=161
PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:10:20 PM | message detail
I dunno, FF9 just didn't hook me like FF8 did.

Then again i don't represent the common gamer of my age group either.....
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/17/2009 8:10:40 PM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION: FFIX leads for a whole five seconds!

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hochiminhX | Posted 5/17/2009 8:10:40 PM | message detail
Ocarina needs 40% to prove itself. After the debacle last round, OoT needs to redeem itself.

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I will bury you.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:12:27 PM | message detail
Match XLII: Final Fantasy VIII vs. Starcraft vs. LoZ: Ocarina of Time vs. Final Fantasy IX

Last Round:

Final Fantasy VIII – 43.91%
Starcraft – 27.89%
Soul Calibur – 15.40%
Xenogears – 12.80%

LoZ: Ocarina of Time – 53.79%
Final Fantasy IX – 21.33%
Half-Life – 14.56%
Chrono Cross – 10.32%

Analysis

Part two of our LFF division brings us to the other company GameFAQs favours, Square. Again despite the overlap the match should go as predicted with only a slight chance of an upset. Sometimes it’s funny to watch the board support one upset because the underdog it one of their favourite games yet ignore or dismiss other upsets even though they have roughly the same chance of happening.

Ocarina of Time was very lucky to be put in this half of the bracket as it has no competition, even giving it its worst case scenario and it will still likely win that match. For the most part Ocarina of Time will be largely ignored and will only serve to take a large portion of the percent. Like Final Fantasy VII it has potential to break 50% though it will probably miss that point by a couple of percent.

Final Fantasy IX was impressive in that it was able to destroy Half-Life when many thought it had a chance at advancing, yet it is no up against its little brother and has no chance. Final Fantasy VIII may have been hated at first, but like Pokemon it is a respected game. Final Fantasy IX on the other hand may have not been hated, but with the release of the game at the end of the Playstation life-cycle. It will be interesting to see how it holds up against SFF though getting anything but last would be a long-shot.

Like today’s match even in the face of LFF Final Fantasy VIII is the favourite at getting second. Its performance against Starcraft last round was quite impressive. Final Fantasy IX may hold its ground, but the buffer region it has to work with is rather large plus it has Xenogears from last round to work with to offset some of the damage Final Fantasy IX will do. Due to the LFF not much can be used to predict the next round though if Final Fantasy VIII performs well despite Final Fantasy IX we could have our favourite going in the division finals.

I like Starcraft as much as the next guy on the board, but there is a small group of people that still think Starcraft has a chance in this match despite watching last round. 60%+ wins are very hard to turn around using just LFF; even SFF in some cases would have trouble causing that much damage. Take a look at today’s match as an example, Pokemon RBY is currently undergoing its worst case scenario, maximum LFF with minimum SFF and it is still comfortably defeating Majora’s Mask. You could argue that GS is affecting Majora’s Mask, but I don’t see it being any worse than what Perfect Dark and Banjo-Kazooie did last round. If you put Starcraft in Majora’s Mask position and make RBY equal to Final Fantasy VIII Starcraft would not be winning that match. So what chance does Starcraft have against two games that will have less overlap than RBY and GS? Even at worst case scenario Final Fantasy VIII will win plus it had Xenogears last round. The only way Starcraft could win is if Final Fantasy IX decides to rSFF, a massive rally happens or the anomaly from FFIV/FF repeats itself which wouldn’t make it an anomaly.

We may see the poll start off close, but as the board vote wears out Starcraft will be crushed throughout the night. I’m not sure whether the 95-97 division or the 98-00 division will have a better division final, but both matches should be pretty interesting. Like last round the peak of the round will be this match giving us a bit of a plateau before descending like mad for the final division.

charmander6000’s Bracket: LoZ: Ocarina of Time > Starcraft

charmander6000’s Prediction: LoZ: Ocarina of Time – 45.73%, Final Fantasy VIII – 21.53%, Starcraft – 18.62%, Final Fantasy IX – 14.12%
charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:12:57 PM | message detail
Im surprised that the next match analysis isn't posted yet. Usually Charmander has it up before the final hour of the current match.

Nice to know that people read those.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192
Dilated Chemist | Posted 5/17/2009 8:14:52 PM | message detail
This match shall be known as Starcraft vs. FFIX because that's the only thing worth watching in this match.

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[ FINAL FOUR ] FFVII / SMB3 / LoZ: OoT / MGS
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=161
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/17/2009 8:15:38 PM | message detail
*takes your post to be implying that FF8 gets last*

I agree.

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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/17/2009 8:18:25 PM | message detail
Looks like I'll 141 points in my bracket and 155 for predictions by the time today is better.
hochiminhX | Posted 5/17/2009 8:19:17 PM | message detail
There are a few scenarios that could occur. I will now reveal them.


1. Starcraft doesn't fall too much from Round 1 and takes advantage of FF8/FF9 split propelling into second place

2. FF8 takes second, SC takes third and FFIX takes fourth

3. FF8 takes second and Starcraft REALLY sucks so FF9 gets 3rd and SC gets 4th

Bascially we have



FF8 > SC > FF9 (60%)
SC > FF8 > FF9 (45%)
FF8 > FF9 > SC (4%)
SC > FF9 > CT (1%)



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I will bury you.
PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:20:52 PM | message detail
You know what i just thought of something.

We all know that Starcraft is capable of rallying. However, the situation would require both FF8 & 9 to have near the exact same percentage split.

Now i know that situation is pretty much impossible, we thought pokemon GSC would be totally drained of its % by RBY yet that didn't happen, it held pretty well.

So if we look at the potential amount of votes Starcraft can get in a rally, just how close would it need to be to FF8 to convince people that Starcraft has a chance?
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/17/2009 8:21:35 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/17/2009 8:23:17 PM | message detail
Who the hell didn't beat the Sky Temple? It had the best boss fight in the game!

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ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/17/2009 8:23:32 PM | message detail
Zen Analyzes the Match Pic!

Because nobody else gives a ****!


http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bge09/bge09-42.jpg

FFVIII: Oh hey, it's Squall and Seifer doing their little sissy fight at the beginning of FFVIII! You think it's some big epic showdown, but it turns out they're really training! And then Seifer knocks Squall out and he wakes up in a hospital! Easily the best introduction for any lead character ever.

StarCraft: What the hell is going on? It looks like a giant lobster fighting one of those aliens from the War of the Worlds remake while everything is being pelted by exploding blue plasma grenades from Halo. Awesome.

Ocarina of Time: I remember when I first got the Triforce from the Sky Temple! Good times. But as I recall, not many people got up to that, so I suppose this is a bad pic for working up nostalgia.

FFIX: FIRE VIVI FFFFFFFFF


ADVANTAGE: FFIX
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:24:40 PM | message detail
Starcraft managed 2000 votes against Wind Waker with a half hour to spare and a 200 vote cushion, so it's probably in range as long as it's within 2500 with 6 hours to go. That's if SC still has the kind of rallying power it had 5 years ago though, which may very well not be true.
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/17/2009 8:24:50 PM | message detail
Here is a question. According to http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2593 FF8/FF9 split 56/44. And Gold/Silver is holding up remarking well here. Why does everyone this that FF9 will not hold up well here? Is there some mysterious Ocarina/FF9 overlap that I am not aware of?
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:24:51 PM | message detail
So if we look at the potential amount of votes Starcraft can get in a rally, just how close would it need to be to FF8 to convince people that Starcraft has a chance?

Less than a 1000 will get the best results though people will keep on trying if it's below 2000. Basically the closer to 0 the better.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192
red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:25:49 PM | message detail
But Nintendo said you can find the Triforce! There were 3 different ways you could do it!
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/17/2009 8:25:50 PM | message detail
I know it's old at the moment, but the 2004 x-stats basically called the whole Vice City/Metroid Prime fiasco. Vice City did like 0.06% worse than what its projection called for.

Am I the only one who doesn't think Metroid Prime disappointed a whole lot?
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/17/2009 8:26:34 PM | message detail
I think it's pretty safe to assume that 8 would take more votes from 7 than 9 would in that poll
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:27:18 PM | message detail
No, FFIX should hold up pretty well I think. But SFF and Last Place Factor are unpredictable, for every RBY/GS you have an FF4/FF1.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:28:08 PM | message detail
Here is a question. According to http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2593 FF8/FF9 split 56/44. And Gold/Silver is holding up remarking well here. Why does everyone this that FF9 will not hold up well here? Is there some mysterious Ocarina/FF9 overlap that I am not aware of?

The problem is we don't know where FFVII/FFX's votes will go to from that poll. Also my prediction has FFVIII with 60/40, which seems about right.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192
red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:29:06 PM | message detail
Also, I think we've learned our lesson about PotDs enough times. Yoshi > Mario right?
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/17/2009 8:29:39 PM | message detail
@ZenOfThunder: Isn't that Ocarina of Time pic from the end of the game, when Link defeats Ganon and gets his hands on the triforce? I thought that was an iconic screenshot.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/17/2009 8:29:52 PM | message detail
Yoshi > Mario can still happen, we've never seen them against each other yet!
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MetricTrout | Posted 5/17/2009 8:30:00 PM | message detail
Yeah, but who prefers FF1 over FF2? Not too many, apparently.

And why would FF9 get hit with Last Place Factor when Starcraft is the one getting last place?
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:30:22 PM | message detail
I know it's old at the moment, but the 2004 x-stats basically called the whole Vice City/Metroid Prime fiasco. Vice City did like 0.06% worse than what its projection called for.

Am I the only one who doesn't think Metroid Prime disappointed a whole lot?


I didn't, but I thought VC would do much better. MP was overrated based on the stats so even if VC fell I thought it still had it. Also Paper Mario was in the same poll.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192
xp1337 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:30:48 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 8:32:04 PM | message detail
Easily the best introduction for any lead character ever.

Darn right!
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 5/17/2009 8:32:29 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy VIII - 28%
Starcraft - 21%
Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 37%
Final Fantasy IX - 14%

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[ FINAL FOUR ] FFVII / SMB3 / LoZ: OoT / MGS
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=161
PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:33:08 PM | message detail
Also the fact that FF8 was quite different from FF9 is another possible factor that can affect the vote outcome. FF9 went back to the traditional fantasy that many knew back in the super nes and gameboy days.

FF8 was rather different since it went with a more Sci-fi style theme rather than pure fantasy. Also the story in FF8 i found to be considerably more mature than most other FF games (FFT for the ps1 was another example of a mature storyline).

Then theres the issue of how well the games age, we've seen it happen with Pokemon after all the hate subsided, FF8 used to be frowned upon but now people take a second look at it and go "you know, sometimes being different is good after all".
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
creativename | Posted 5/17/2009 8:39:51 PM | message detail
Heh, I don't remember him getting knocked out. I'll have to youtube that.

FF9 should have a good board vote...which just means FF8's board vote will suck worse than normal. Could start off 4th here.

FFIX: FIRE VIVI FFFFFFFFF

I've seen this f's thing before - what's this mean anyway?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 8:41:22 PM | message detail
The game doesn't show Squall getting KO'd or anything. The cutscene ends with him slashing back at Seifer, and then the game starts with him in the clinic.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:43:52 PM | message detail
Uh not quite Leon.

The last scene shows Rinoa jumping at Squall after he had dealt that retaliation slash across his face. Just before Rinoa lands in Squall's arms, that's when he wakes up in the clinic.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 8:44:24 PM | message detail
Well, yeah, there's a quick flash of a bunch of cutscenes of the game. I was referring to the end of the duel.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/17/2009 8:46:28 PM | message detail
I don't need to justify these numbers

OoT 43%
Starcraft 25sssssssss%
FF8 22%
FF9 10%
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http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:46:39 PM | message detail
Another little question i got.

Do you think that Squall and Seifer's presence in Kingdom Hearts 2 helped out FF8?
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 8:46:56 PM | message detail
I don't need to justify these numbers

True, you'll be proven wrong in 15 minutes, so no need.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/17/2009 8:47:53 PM | message detail

From: PegasusLover123 | #440
Another little question i got.

Do you think that Squall and Seifer's presence in Kingdom Hearts 2 helped out FF8?


No, though it most certainly helped Squall
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http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:48:00 PM | message detail
oot: 42
ff8: 18
ff9: 18
scraft: 22

count on it
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For your health.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, FastFalcon05
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/17/2009 8:49:21 PM | message detail
If FF9 comes anywhere near FF8 I'll eat my hat
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http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 8:50:12 PM | message detail
Define "anywhere near."
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
creativename | Posted 5/17/2009 8:50:52 PM | message detail
Hah, I just saw a vid and one of the top comments mentioned how the intro touched on many of the games themes, including Squalls "overall punk-***** ness" - awesome
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:55:55 PM | message detail
Hochi- you're setting the bar too low for OOT at 40% if you want to proclaim its failures. On the other hand, if it really does fail to make 40%.....bring on the Zelda has fallen off a cliff discussion!
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
Cecil XIX | Posted 5/17/2009 8:56:27 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter
Posted 5/17/2009 9:30:52 PM
message detail Who the hell goes when you talk about Pokemon, "Aw yeah remember that Trainer? He was totally badass." Everyone knows the Trainer - but c'mon, no one cares. Peach syndrome.


Pokemon Trainer > Jill confirmed.

Seriously though, I think the Pokemon Trainer has a decent range and could be worthwhile. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get to round two in this format. I'm not sure there's actually a character called 'Pokemon Trainer' though. There's Red (The guy in Brawl), Blue, Dawn, Lucas and who ever the protagonists in the 2nd and 3rd generations are. If it weren't for Brawl, it's be like entering a character named "Final Fantasy Protaganist".
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Wow, an intelligent criticism of Zeta. Never thought I'd see the day. - AmuroNT1
Congrats to FastFalcon05 for his well-deserved victory.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 8:57:01 PM | message detail
Or Fighter.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
hochiminhX | Posted 5/17/2009 8:57:01 PM | message detail
Fine, if OoT doesn't match what FF7 got it sucks and nobody likes it

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I will bury you.