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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 718

red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 2:48:14 PM | message detail
Also, another attempt at a top 10 list:

1. Ocarina of Time
1. Final Fantasy VII
3. A Link to the Past
4. Super Mario 64
4. Super Mario Bros. 3
6. Chrono Trigger
7. Super Smash Bros. Melee
8. Final Fantasy X
9. Super Mario World
10. Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow

Hmm.....it's harder to picture RBY in the top 10 than I thought. FFVIII, FFVI, and SMB all have good arguments for 9th or 10th.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 2:51:40 PM | message detail
Yup at this point it seems more likely to between 11-15 than top 10.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192
Yesmar | Posted 5/17/2009 2:56:40 PM | message detail
When speaking of anomalies don't forget that there could be "Random SFF/LFF" where two random entrants have overlap for purley coincidental reasons, rather than logical ones.
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MnMZero | Posted 5/17/2009 2:57:51 PM | message detail
So has most of this topic been a debate trying to figure out where Pokemon stands?
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/17/2009 3:04:06 PM | message detail
Largely, yes.
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Prototype
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/17/2009 3:08:37 PM | message detail
More or less. It's become the yardstick by which we'll have to gauge the other impressive performer, FF8.

Speaking of which, why does everyone think FFX is so much stronger than FF8? It doesn't seem to have a fourpack so much stronger than FF8's that you couldn't place them in the same league.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 3:09:25 PM | message detail
If SMW SFF FFIV a few matches back FFIV is so screwed in round 3.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192
red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 3:12:04 PM | message detail
Just intuition, I think. It's really hard to tell how strong their competition was as we haven't had a games contest in 5 years and some of the games weren't even in the last contest. Also, Pokemon looked a LOT better last night, when it looked like it would finish pretty close to MGS, than now, as it's getting Ulti-style blown out, so it's not strange that the direction of the Pokemon debate has turned a lot since the start of this topic.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/17/2009 3:17:35 PM | message detail
I'd probably go...

1. Final Fantasy VII
2. Ocarina of Time
3. Link to the Past
4. Super Mario Bros 3
5. Super Mario World
6. Final Fantasy X
7. Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow
8. Super Mario 64
9. Super Smash Bros Melee
10. Final Fantasy VIII

Goldeneye close by.

red sox, I think you're overestimating Mario 64 and CT by a LOT. Mario 64 certainly isn't the top Mario game and SMB3 and World have been a lot more impressive than it so far. CT should be out of the top 10 and that'd be no surprise, FFVIII is a decent shot to be there or there abouts the cut off point. I also get the feeling that Melee might be waning in support these days.
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/17/2009 3:17:49 PM | message detail
To change the subject for a hot second, let's talk about SMW and SM64...is there a chance they're over-rated? I know we've had our debates about whether SMW impressed while the FF's split or FF2/4 looked really good and SMW just SFF'd MM3, and I've backed the latter...but now that might apply to SM64 too. For as badly as SM64 beat SMW2:YI and as much as we were caught off-guard by SM64 > CT, I wonder if something similar didn't happen; CT didn't have anybody to split with, but SM64 essentially only had two opponents to worry about. I doubt many SMW2:YI fans that already like SM64 didn't vote for SM64, which could allow such a situation since CT and C:SotN still has to deal with them without SFF...and that could fit with how SMW impressed so much, too.

I still expect SM64 to beat CT in R3 thanks to FF7, but if we see FF2/4 impress instead of SMW beforehand, SM64 may not have as easy of a time as this round insinuates.
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Prototype
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/17/2009 3:17:57 PM | message detail
All things considered, MGS is holding up pretty damn well here.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/17/2009 3:22:11 PM | message detail
Mario World is absolutely overrated. I'm not sure if it would hit 60% on either of those Final Fantasy titles in a traditional match, and it scored it on both of them combined. There's no doubt that it had an inflated percentage. It's much harder to argue that for Mario 64, though. Chrono Trigger might have fallen, but unless the fall was face first on a bed of spikes, it's still definitely Top 10. Mario 64 beat a legit Top 10er despite another Mario title in the poll. Game's a beast. I don't think SotN would have hurt CT much (any?) more than it would have hurt everything else in that poll, either.
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creativename | Posted 5/17/2009 3:23:01 PM | message detail
based on my pre-contest expectations for MGS's strength, I'd take a game that is worth 55% on it for top 10

I'm almost certain you're greatly underestimating what it really takes to be a top 10 game, or very much overestimating MGS. Games like SMW and SM64 would smack MGS around like a child. Hell even FF8 should be able to clear that and FF8 almost surely isn't a top 10 game.

There's a lot of really strong games that are bunched together, and they're all well above MGS' league.


but it's as good an explanation as anything else I can think of to explain why SM64 went from 66% to 73% on SOTN between rounds.

General contest wonkiness is fine for me here. It's possible maybe there's an overlap (I sure hope that's why CT lost) but I'm skeptical.


To change the subject for a hot second, let's talk about SMW and SM64...is there a chance they're over-rated?

Depends on how strong people think they are. I think people thinking they're stronger than SMB3 are totally off, but these are still two mighty games. I don't think SMW survives next round (don't think FF4 gets seriously threatened even), but SMW is easily stronger than FF4 anyway, so that means nothing. And SM64 is very strong.

SMW/SMB1/SM64/LoZ are probably indirectly all quite bunched together in strength, a few points behind SMB3.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/17/2009 3:24:42 PM | message detail
"To change the subject for a hot second, let's talk about SMW and SM64...is there a chance they're over-rated? I know we've had our debates about whether SMW impressed while the FF's split or FF2/4 looked really good and SMW just SFF'd MM3, and I've backed the latter...but now that might apply to SM64 too. For as badly as SM64 beat SMW2:YI and as much as we were caught off-guard by SM64 > CT, I wonder if something similar didn't happen; CT didn't have anybody to split with, but SM64 essentially only had two opponents to worry about. I doubt many SMW2:YI fans that already like SM64 didn't vote for SM64, which could allow such a situation since CT and C:SotN still has to deal with them without SFF...and that could fit with how SMW impressed so much, too.

I still expect SM64 to beat CT in R3 thanks to FF7, but if we see FF2/4 impress instead of SMW beforehand, SM64 may not have as easy of a time as this round insinuates."

SMW, maybe. SM64...not so much. This is post-remake CT, it's probably as strong as it was in 2004, maybe a bit better. No matter what you replace YI with, it would have hurt CT more, so I can't see SM64 being too overrated.
creativename | Posted 5/17/2009 3:31:39 PM | message detail
I'd highly consider Seifer or Red XIII if I won the guru. I'm in the mood to get strong new blood in there.

Red XIII has been one of our strongest snubs from the start. He wouldn't be quite as much of a powerhouse as in 2K3-2K6 but he'd still be a force.

I don't think Seifer is worthwhile though.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/17/2009 3:34:46 PM | message detail
If we're looking for more FFVII blood, it's gotta be Cid. I think Red XIII would be a few notches below Cid.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 5/17/2009 3:34:55 PM | message detail
I'd go with a Chocobo if I won the guru. Since we're getting inanimate objects in already, it would certainly qualify for the contest now.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/17/2009 3:36:53 PM | message detail
"I don't think Seifer is worthwhile though."

What he said. Unlike Squall, who went through the roof due to his KH appearances, Seifer might have been WEAKENED by them. Heck, he got his "worst line ever", about his ROMANTIC DREAM!, replaced by an even worse one in KH, and he doesn't have a big presence in the plot.

Still, some new FF blood would be nice. I wonder what characters could have good strength in a contest setting?
Yesmar | Posted 5/17/2009 3:39:18 PM | message detail
I think that SMW's being pretty overrated. I see no reason for it to move that much from its spot in Sp2004, which isn't behind anything fishy.

And for all it did in the 2nd Round, there's only so high I can place a game that got 55% on FF1, and on par with SMB3 and SM64 is not there.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/17/2009 3:40:43 PM | message detail
Red and Seifer are the best shots for new FF powerhouses I'd wager.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/17/2009 3:42:32 PM | message detail
Cid beats both
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/17/2009 3:44:26 PM | message detail
Cid seems like more of a fan favorite, and after playing through FFVII, I easily see why. Plus, he's got a more appealing design than Red XIII (don't trust that animal design, really). Also, Cid Factor and Highwind Factor can't hurt.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 3:53:44 PM | message detail
There's a chance this was just Mario's round. Nothing is for sure in these 4-ways. I don't think I'd be too surprised if either CT or SM64 beat the other easily next round, and while I seriously doubt SMB3/SMW LFF is enough to make up a 60-40 gap, I won't be surprised if FFIV beats SMW either.

I wouldn't take SM64 over SMB3 in a direct match, but they're probably pretty close indirectly. 48% on Sonic 2/Street Figher 2/Mortal Kombat 2 vs. 40% on CT/SOTN/YI.....if you hid the names, I'd have guessed SMB3 had the latter performance and SM64 had the former.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/17/2009 3:56:53 PM | message detail
Mortal Kombat II now featuring Guybrush Threepwood OHOHOHOHO
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
creativename | Posted 5/17/2009 3:59:10 PM | message detail
And for all it did in the 2nd Round, there's only so high I can place a game that got 55% on FF1, and on par with SMB3 and SM64 is not there.

I see no reason to think that SM64 is much above SMW. SMW could easily be stronger for all we know, but really it's simply impossible to say which game is stronger from what we've seen. To say they're significantly different in strength right now is premature, unless you're just basing it on intuition.

SMW's strength relative to other games has certainly increased since 2K4, either that or it was underrated for whatever reason back then. I throw 2K4 stuff almost out the window anyway. Most things indicate SMW is quite strong, including it's 1st round performance (which I think is indicative of its real strength, not round 2), which was good.


Plus, he's got a more appealing design than Red XIII

I'd think the complete opposite. Red XIII's design just screams badass.

Cid's is badass too, but Red XIII's power would come very much from his character design, whereas for Cid it would also be other things.

I wouldn't be too surprised if Cid was stronger, but I'd put my money on Red XIII.
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creativename | Posted 5/17/2009 4:02:19 PM | message detail
I seriously doubt SMB3/SMW LFF is enough to make up a 60-40 gap

The LFF might not be enough but combined with the SFF it should be.

Also I don't think it's a 60/40 gap to begin with.

if you hid the names, I'd have guessed SMB3 had the latter performance and SM64 had the former.

Chrono Trigger unfortunately isn't quite what it used to be. I don't anyone is too surprised by that, though most of us were hoping otherwise.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 4:34:50 PM | message detail
I wonder how much E3 will affect the contest. My guess is that a big announcement could make a pretty big difference in this format, especially with E3 occuring so late in the contest.
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ffmasterjose | Posted 5/17/2009 4:37:28 PM | message detail
For some reason I thought they stopped having E3 >_>
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138/192 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 4:39:23 PM | message detail
I think they did, or at any rate made it a much smaller event, but they decided to bring back the old E3 this year. Or something like that, someone more knowledgeable about this can say.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/17/2009 4:40:20 PM | message detail
The press conferences will be held right around the time a bunch of old Nintendo games and FFVII go at it. At that point, there'll be nothing left from Microsoft to speak of, so I guess only big Squaretendo would possibly affect anything.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/17/2009 4:40:51 PM | message detail
This will be the first "big" E3 since 2006.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 4:43:21 PM | message detail
Unless Nintendo has decided to change their recent business strategy, the only thing that looks like it could make a difference is the FFVII remake then. The Legend of Zelda: Link's Fitness Training and Super Mario Teaches English won't help!
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ffmasterjose | Posted 5/17/2009 4:45:55 PM | message detail
Maybe we'll get some new info on Spirit Tracks...which won't really affect anything at all
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NP: Metal Gear Solid > Zelda: MM | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
RPGuy96 | Posted 5/17/2009 4:48:02 PM | message detail
Mario Teaches Typing 2 would be a top ten game!
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 5/17/2009 4:48:06 PM | message detail
New Zelda's totally going to be announced and assure TP advancing as far as it can get.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/17/2009 5:03:14 PM | message detail
Alright, think I've calmed down some. Will try to tone down the talk of Pokemon for now.

...I'm not even going to try and bother making a set-in-stone rankings list. It would be worthless. A general list is better.

The Top 2
FFVII
Ocarina of TIme

Possible Top 10
Super Mario Bros 3
Super Smash Bros Melee
Pokemon RBY
Link to the Past
Final Fantasy X
Super Mario World
Super Mario 64
Chrono Trigger

Possible Top 15
Goldeneye
Metal Gear Solid

Possible Top 20
Super Mario Bros.
Legend of Zelda
Pokemon GS
Final Fantasy VI

I've got 3 empty spots, but I can't think of anything else to put on there.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/17/2009 5:04:24 PM | message detail
Actually, bump SMW down to Top 15.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 5/17/2009 5:06:37 PM | message detail
Finally back from hiatus. Thoughts...

- Man, holy crap SMB > Zelda I. I knew SMB had some pop to it (who didn't), but it didn't do much worse than SMB3 did back in the day.
- Um, HOLY CRAP Super Mario 64 > Chrono Trigger. I mean, yeah, man enough to admit that I underestimated it and then some, but... actually, I'm fumbling for an explanation here
- funny that this match has gone from "lol MGS sucks RBY would double it" to "oh looks like it wouldn't win by much if at all"... not that evaluating games based on SFF-riddled four-way matches is the smartest thing in the world, but yeah. I really lowballed G/S here, though - RBY's right where I pegged it, but I gave MGS like 573% and it all went to G/S. What is with this Pokefreaky fanbase?

(it makes sense that MGS would hold up so well with the day, though - this is Snake/Cloud/Seph all over again)
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Karma Hunter | Posted 5/17/2009 5:07:19 PM | message detail
Or rather, that RBY as an entity would disproportionately suffer along with it.
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ChronicBoom | Posted 5/17/2009 5:14:09 PM | message detail

- funny that this match has gone from "lol MGS sucks RBY would double it" to "oh looks like it wouldn't win by much if at all"... not that evaluating games based on SFF-riddled four-way matches is the smartest thing in the world, but yeah. I really lowballed G/S here, though - RBY's right where I pegged it, but I gave MGS like 573% and it all went to G/S. What is with this Pokefreaky fanbase?


I don't know... MGS is looking pretty pathetic here to me. This is about as ideal of conditions you can create for it, and it's really, really failing to impress. R/B/Y would kick it's ass 1v1, imo.

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creativename | Posted 5/17/2009 5:16:04 PM | message detail
Super Mario Teaches English won't help!

Oh god, this made me laugh :)

"I'm-a Mario, I'm-a teacha you the Engleesh!"

this is Snake/Cloud/Seph all over again)

I don't follow? This is like the reverse of that, where Snake acted like the joke entrant, whereas RBY did that here.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/17/2009 5:17:01 PM | message detail
I think KH meant that Sephiroth wrecked Cloud's day vote as badly as GS wrecked RBY's, or something along those lines.

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 5:20:32 PM | message detail
Snake wasn't the joke in Cloud/Snake/Seph/Kirby- Kirby was if anyone. Snake held up very well with the day vote and then had joke trends the next day.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 5/17/2009 5:23:08 PM | message detail
I'd go with a Chocobo if I won the guru. Since we're getting inanimate objects in already, it would certainly qualify for the contest now

There's actually a character named Chocobo too... he's a Chocobo... from Final Fantasy Fables: Chocobo Tales/Chocobo's Dungeon

high quality nomination right there.
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creativename | Posted 5/17/2009 5:29:34 PM | message detail
Ohp, you're right. I was thinking of the final.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/17/2009 5:29:51 PM | message detail
Boco for contest champion, let's do this!

He'd make an interesting entrant in 4ways, though. Joke factor + FF franchise voting = Round 4 material. :P
Karma Hunter | Posted 5/17/2009 5:42:26 PM | message detail
This is about as ideal of conditions you can create for it, and it's really, really failing to impress. R/B/Y would kick it's ass 1v1, imo.

R/B/Y is getting a touch under 58% on its little brother currently (and I'd wager it's doing better than it should); MGS got 53% and some change last round. I don't really want to belabor the point because the data we possess is truly laughable, ANY significant SFF throws the question of MGS v RBY into doubt, even more so considering we're talking about four-way matches riddled with all kinds of SFF here.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 5:45:00 PM | message detail
Also for people saying that there aren't enough quality characters for a NRT I've found the NRT for the 2007 contest (couldn't find the 2008) and here are some of the characters that have yet to make it (ignore the numbers).

Seifer Almasy (Final Fantasy VIII) - 20
Gilgamesh (Final Fantasy V/XII) - 10
Yoshimitsu (Tekken) - 10
Princess Ashe (Final Fantasy XII) - 9
Laguna Loire (Final Fantasy VIII) - 8
Lyndis (Fire Emblem 7) - 8
Cid Highwind (Final Fantasy VII) - 7
Hector (Fire Emblem 7) - 7
Mog (Final Fantasy VI) - 7
Tron Bonne (Mega Man Legends) - 7
Citan Uzuki (Xenogears) - 6
Fawful (Mario & Luigi) - 6
Locke Cole (Final Fantasy VI) - 6
Gray Fox (Metal Gear Solid) - 5
Grim Ripper (Guitar Hero) - 5
Bahamut (Final Fantasy) - 4
Basch Fon Ronsenburg (Final Fantasy XII) - 4
James Sunderland (Silent Hill) - 4
Luneth (Final Fantasy III) - 4
Red XIII (Final Fantasy VII) - 4
Yuffie Kisaragi (Final Fantasy VII) - 4
Barret Wallace (Final Fantasy VII) - 3
Delita Hyral (Final Fantasy Tactics) - 3
Epona (Legend of Zelda) - 3
K. K. Slider (Animal Crossing) - 3
Mai Shiranui (King of Fighters) - 3
Musashi (Brave Fencer) - 3
Pious Augustus (Eternal Darkness) - 3
Quistis Trepe (Final Fantasy VIII) - 3
Rufus Shinra (Final Fantasy VII) - 3
Commander Keen (Commander Keen) - 2
Dizzy (Guilty Gear) - 2
Dr. Derek Stiles (Trauma Center: Second Opinion) - 2
Ecco the Dolphin (Ecco the Dolphin) - 2
Edgar Figaro (Final Fantasy VI) - 2
Guile (Street Fighter) - 2
Jimmy Hopkins (Bully) - 2
Ky Kiske (Guilty Gear) - 2
Metroid (Metroid) - 2
Nel Zelpher (Star Ocean 3) - 2
Rinoa Heartilly (Final Fantasy VIII) - 2
Robo (Chrono Trigger) - 2
Roy (Fire Emblem 6) - 2
Shang Tsung (Mortal Kombat) - 2
Solidus Snake (Metal Gear Solid 2) - 2
Taki (Soul Calibur) - 2
XIII (XIII) - 2

While most are fodder it's better to get something that we want rather than something we don't care about. However being forced to nominate 4 new guys and only 1 returner seems unfair at this point, maybe the ratio could be changed to 3:2.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/17/2009 5:46:02 PM | message detail
Christ, it's getting worse.

Hi,

My name is Steve aka [CENSORED] on gamefaqs. I am writing this email because I saw an image created for the "Best Game Ever" contest and it was credited to nintendogirl1. Are you the person they are crediting?

If so I'd like to commend you on an awesome image and say that my friend and I have been trying to figure out where you found the letters to create the image. We easily assumed each letter is from a box art from a diffrent game. Which games was the fun part of guessing. So far we've been able to confirm many, but not all. If you did not create the image, than I apologize for wasting your time lol.

But if you DID create the image, would you ease our mind and inform us the games you've used for the letters?

So far we've come up with the following

B - Bioshock
E - Earthbound
S - Sonic the Hedgehog 2
T - (we swear its a Tony Hawk game, but we can't match it anywhere)
G - (truly baffled here, we've guessed Ninja Gaiden but can't match this either)
A - GTA IV
M - Metroid (NES)
E - ???
E - ???
V- Final Fantasy VII
E - ???
R - Super Mario RPG (I've matched it to a Japanese logo of the game)

Can you help us? Thank you!

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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/17/2009 5:51:06 PM | message detail
Hmm...from that list, I just realized how cool it'd be to have Sol Badguy and Gilgamesh make it. Sure, they'd be fodder, but they'd probably be good fodder. We also need to get Epona in just to test how far Franchise Voting can carry you. :P