GameFAQs Contests

Top 10 is still very possible.

I've never done this one message board before, but....

*facepalm*
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MGS=Possible Top 15
RBY=55% against MGS
RBY=Possible Top 10

Is this too hard to understand, or should I dumb it down further?

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

The tough thing about trying to squeeze Pokemon in the Top 10 is many people still have a difficult time seeing it beat the two big Zeldas and four big Marios. Majora's Mask is one thing, but those are in a clearly different league. If it can't manage, there's 7th right there. Factor in FFVII, you're at 8th. You've gotta argue it beating Melee, Chrono Trigger, and FFX, not to mention anything else that's in contention for the spot.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

I mean I actually literally facepalmed there before I even knew what I was doing. I mean wow.

Best case scenario for RBY (All of GS votes go to it, MM's votes go 60/40 between it and MGS): RBY wins directly by 58.1%.

Wrong way to look at it - you can't just apportion votes like that. The way to look at it is with the comparison with GS and how GS did on MGS last round, you don't need anything else. After that it's just a question of the level of SFF. 55/45 is the worse case for MGS.
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http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/little-mac_2.png

Such a lack of high quality Mac pics.
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
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If RBY gets into the top 10 it'll be as a number 10.

FFVII
OoT
LttP
SMB3
SM64
CT
Melee
FFX
SMW

That's at least nine games already. Plus there's SMB and possibly TP.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192

Is this too hard to understand, or should I dumb it down further?

Man this Pokemon stuff is starting to get annoying again. Poor Soul, I'm tempted to take it out on his sig :(

MGS is not a super-strong game. It's not top 15, and it's well short of the cluster**** of top 10ish games like the Super Mario series.
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RBY as top 10 is absolutely insane.

It was insane from the start. It's just super-insane now.
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Man this Pokemon stuff is starting to get annoying again.

Hey, you're acting smug while at the same time having derivative opinions. What do you think is going to happen?

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Last round was terrible because of the "it was impossible that RBY can SFF MM and MM did not suffer any LFF and there's only so weak I can see a Zelda game" people
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192

What do you think is going to happen?

Uh. Logic?

I don't know if "smug" is the right word, but how the hell should one act when confronted with this kind of relentness nuttiness?

Wait - are you the guy that argues just for the sake of it. Are you just wasting my time...?

while at the same time having derivative opinions.

Wuh?
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And yes, this result make GSC's last match look very weird (or vice versa with this match). If it can hold up this well against RBY, it's just flat out logical to assume it's not far behind in terms of raw strength. If that's the case, it really should have won last round when it had so many advantages in its corner. The two results don't mesh well from where I'm sitting (an uncomfortable chair).
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Yoblazer: http://i42.tinypic.com/avk9ie.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

I don't know if "smug" is the right word, but how the hell should one act when confronted with this kind of relentness nuttiness?

Take a step back, look around, notice that you're the only one that considers it 100% impossible, and reevaluate your worldview to some extent?

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

How can you be more independent yet not have smaller overlap? Isn't that contradictory?

I don't think so. FF8 and FF9 both have separate, distinct fanbases but they definitely overlap. what I mean is that FF9 won't get SFFed by FF8 like G/S would by RBY. that hurts FF8 more than it hurts RBY.
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xyzzy
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter

Wait - are you the guy that argues just for the sake of it. Are you just wasting my time...?

No, I just jump on every Pokemon argument because I'm virtually the only one here who ever argues for the series in a positive way. I'd rather we got the possibility out in the open, rather than waiting for the match and being blindsided...again.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

KP, you need to calm down about Pokemon. you don't need to be so forceful every time someone doubts Pokemon. it's okay for someone to not agree with you.

honestly, this is not a great performance by RBY. let's wait for FF8's performance and then move on from there.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg

and reevaluate your worldview to some extent?

You really, really, really should be saying these words to yourself.

And I really need to stop talking to you about Pokemon (and you likewise), because this is getting very pointless.
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No, I just jump on every Pokemon argument because I'm virtually the only one here who ever argues for the series in a positive way.

I'd say the topic is about 50/50 on Pokemon support, from what I see. And when you have to play the rSFF card to make RBY look better, that's not a good thing.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Oh and regarding seeing Pokemon positively - like I've said, I think this is damn respectable for Pokemon. I'm impressed, and certainly impressed in terms of my pre-contest expectations. I view the series' strength very positively. Pokemon overhype, especially today, is impossible to view positively.

But I think Pokemon lovers should be proud of their series.

I don't think so. FF8 and FF9 both have separate, distinct fanbases but they definitely overlap. what I mean is that FF9 won't get SFFed by FF8 like G/S would by RBY. that hurts FF8 more than it hurts RBY.

I agree with your conclusion in that 8/9 could have more LFF despite less overlap, but not with the logic of not getting SFFed. I think 8 SFFs 9 worse than RBY is SFFing GS, because it probably ain't SFFing GS much.

I'm not quite sure how to explain it mechanics-wise, but I do think it's possible for 8/9 to have less overlap than RBY/GS (it's pretty much impossible for them to match the playrate overlap there, which should be almost as high as it gets), and yet more LFF.
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Topic needs more discussion regarding how Morrigan would do in a match pic if her opponent was using her breasts as pillows.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

I don't think so. FF8 and FF9 both have separate, distinct fanbases but they definitely overlap. what I mean is that FF9 won't get SFFed by FF8 like G/S would by RBY. that hurts FF8 more than it hurts RBY.

The problem is RBY isn't doing all that much SFF to GS, this is all LFF.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192

I'd say the topic is about 50/50 on Pokemon support, from what I see. And when you have to play the rSFF card to make RBY look better, that's not a good thing.

I'd argue that there are more pro-Pokemon people than anti. Really besides me and cn I don't see too many people being that vocal about it.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192

I still don't understand how 8 and 9 could have more LFF. You can't really argue that the two FF fanbases are larger than Pokemon's. Besides this is about percent overlap which Pokemon has more of.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192

You can't really argue that the two FF fanbases are larger than Pokemon's.

On this site, you can.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

I'd expect Pokemon to have a bigger fanbase -- or at least, a playrate -- than any FF game besides 7, and I'd actually expect RBY's playrate to eclipse FF7's.

FF's fanbase is just more diverse and more accepting.
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xyzzy
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter

Worst case scenario for RBY (80% of GS votes go to it, MM votes split evenly): RBY wins directly by 54.45%.

That's a pretty random statement. "Only" 70% of Sephiroth's votes went to Cloud in the battle royale in 2K7. I'd say RBY is really close to MGS (probably not a top 10 game).

And MGS still has a chance next round as well, although FFVIII is definitely the favourite there (if it gets so far).

I agree with your conclusion in that 8/9 could have more LFF despite less overlap

That really doesn't make any sense. Overlap = LFF. Did you mean less SFF despite more overlap? Doesn't make too much sense either, because FFVIII is going to make FFIX look like ass tomorrow.
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Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino

I'd highly consider Seifer or Red XIII if I won the guru. I'm in the mood to get strong new blood in there.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

As I see it, RBY is like the FF7 of Pokémon, that is, a proxy for the entire strength of its series. Therefore, it's not going to be hurt much by LFF or similar, the same way we wouldn't expect Link to take a nosedive even if he had Midna, Ganon, and Zelda in the poll with him. FF8 and FF9, meanwhile, are the dark horses of their series, of sorts. I'd wager that, in spite of the insane showing of FF8, it still relies quite a bit on franchise voting, which, not being THE entry of its series, is more likely to be split between it and FF9. Does that sound reasonable?

let's get something straight pre-match -

what's a tougher pack, FF7 vs. three good Nintendo games or OOT vs. two FF games and Starcraft?
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xyzzy
http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg

Overlap = LFF.

Well that's not entirely true, I guess. FFVII and OoT have no LFF but huge overlap because of their high play rate. LFF is simply disproportionate overlap.

In this sense, FFVIII and FFIX having less overlap but more LFF than GS/RBY is possible in theory, but extremely unlikely. I'd rather say that there will be less overlap (worse playrates) and less LFF (they are after all more loosely related than RBY and GS).
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Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino

Hmm...I'd say they're about even. Maybe OoT's fourpack is slightly weaker. Independent fanbases can do wonders for your strength, while three N64 games would get the two weaker ones beaten into the ground by the stronger one.

it's just two n64 games.
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xyzzy

Oops. My mistake. It depends on the independency of the Ninty fanbases then. If there's a lot of overlap, OoT's pack should be stronger, otherwise FF7 has a stronger pack by far.

I'd wager that, in spite of the insane showing of FF8, it still relies quite a bit on franchise voting, which, not being THE entry of its series, is more likely to be split between it and FF9. Does that sound reasonable?

This is a valid argument, but I'd sooner categorize this with the "hardcore fanbase" arguments.

FFIX is not going to make FFVIII lose tomorrow, since it already had Suikoden last round and will make FFIX look like turbofodder.

But I can still see Starcraft winning if it can stand up to OoT better (or otherwise said, FF franchise votes gave FFVIII an inflated percentage last round).

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Oh, I've got one. A Mexican, a Jew and a colored guy go into a bar. The bartender looks up to them and says: "Get the **** out of here" -- Gran Torino

what's a tougher pack, FF7 vs. three good Nintendo games or OOT vs. two FF games and Starcraft?

I think Ocarina's is tougher.

FFVIII > Goldeneye
Mario RPG > SFF'd FFIX
Starcraft > SFF'd Mario Kart 64

That's just what I'm thinking, but FFVIII being the strongest of the six should give Ocarina's pack the edge. There'll be more overlap between the two FF games than there was between GE/MK64/SMRPG, but Starcraft's independent support should even things up.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Then again, Suikoden is LOLfodder. I'd expect FF9 to beat it down 60-40 or worse on a 1v1 match or a fourway with two other games that didn't overlap with those two. Additionally, it has the name value, which, while not much, COULD let it siphon a sizeable number of votes from FF8. I still expect FF8 to win by a landslide, but I think it's more likely to suffer from another game from its franchise than RBY.

Yeah, OoT's pack is tougher overall, I think.
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I'd take OoT's group, but it's hard to say because Starcraft is still hiding both its (and by extension) FF8's strength.

I'd go with OoT though because it would take something crazy from Starcraft to bring it and FF8 so far down that it loses to Goldeneye/SMRPG/Mario Kart 64.

Honestly, I'd expect OoT to get around... 44% or so with a margin of error of about plus or minus 2-3%, but I don't think I'm very good at guessing %.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile

You don't understand that RBY is undergoing its worst case scenario against GS. RBY can't really suffer too much more LFF unless GS rSFF.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192

I wonder how high the vote totals will go with two PS Final Fantasy games and Ocarina of Time.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

"I wonder how high the vote totals will go with two PS Final Fantasy games and Ocarina of Time."

Hmm...135-140k seems about right, doesn't it? I wouldn't be too surprised if the finals broke 160k, though it's still a tall order.

Well today despite LFF we're heading for about 130k.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192

That's at least nine games already. Plus there's SMB and possibly TP.

I think we can safely rule TP being anywhere near the top 10, or even top 20.
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http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

Why not? I also forgot to add FFVIII and FFVI to that list...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192

An unimpressive first round, other Zelda games failing, SMG completely failing, everything points to TP not being an elite contender.
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http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

Alright, I think I've calmed down enough from the horror of seeing CT lose to SM64, so hopefully I'll be able to look at things objectively and without overreacting now. So, comments:

I'm surprised at how well GS is holding up. It's in last place against a stronger game that's been greatly hyped and has reasons to SFF it, and everyone knew GS wouldn't finish anything but last today. Yet it's putting up very respectable numbers against RBY, and may be escaping SFF entirely.

RBY is putting up good numbers too, and is closer to MGS than I expected it to be before the contest and about what I expected after round 1 and before CT/SM64. It's hard to tell how strong MGS is, but based on my pre-contest expectations for MGS's strength, I'd take a game that is worth 55% on it for top 10....at the bottom of it. I don't think we've seen anything yet this contest that changes my expectations for MGS's strength, and there's a pretty wide range for it. We can abandon the talk about RBY being top 5. If it had actually beaten MGS today, that would have been a valid subject of discussion, but as it's getting 55-45'd, I think it's pretty safe to reject that possibility.

For tomorrow, Starcraft has a decent chance. Partially this is because of FFVIII/IX overlap, but there can also be significant variation between rounds due to as yet unexplained reasons. There is always of course the possibility of rallying with Starcraft, and I think that Lopen is right in thinking that nothing will fuel Starcraft more than being up against Final Fantasy and Zelda. It's still too early in the contest for that to mean very much, but it may mean something.

I'd like to hypothesize some CT/SOTN SFF. There is admittedly not much to support this, but Alucard did completely fall apart in round 3 against Crono last year too, going from 49% to 39% on Pikachu. Captain Falcon being in round 2 and save_us.rat makes that comparison not very meaningful, but it's as good an explanation as anything else I can think of to explain why SM64 went from 66% to 73% on SOTN between rounds.

On FFVII: I maintain that I am disappointed in its round 2 performance. It should do much better than double Goldeneye considering the triple Nintendo SFF flying around- and Mario Kart's performance indicates that there was a lot of overlap there. Here's a question: do you think SOTN fell more in the last 5 years than the amount FFVII gained on Goldeneye through LFF? Because, if not, and you take Mario 64/SOTN at face value, Mario 64 is projected to beat FFVII. I don't think I can really compare it to OOT until tomorrow though- OOT's round 1 match was against what is in effect a group of 3 unknowns.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

It probably won't get top 10, but I'd be surprised if it misses the top 20.

Let's see potential top 20 games, in no order...

Super Mario Bros.
The Legend of Zelda
Super Mario Bros. 3
Super Mario World
LoZ: A Link to the Past
Final Fantasy VI
GoldenEye 007
Final Fantasy VII
Super Mario 64
Chrono Trigger
Pokemon RBY
Metal Gear Solid
Pokemon GS
Final Fantasy VIII
LoZ: Ocarina of Time
Final Fantasy X
Super Smash Bros. Melee

That's 17 that should make it and even some of those on the list I would take TP over them. FFIV and FF could make it depending if you ignore their round 2 match, SMRPG and MK64 could also round the bottom of that list and WW probably won't and even if it did I'd rank TP over it easily.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192

hey guys, early reminder to nominate

Happy Mask Salesman

for your next local video game character contest type situation
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For your health.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/Cyclo/pokewhat.jpg This is my Chocomander, FastFalcon05

I think we need more proof than what we've got to call for rSFF today. I mean, it took us four years to prepare for Mario/Samus, and not all of us attribute that to rSFF even today. We've just seen each Pokemon game twice -- including their match today -- so let's be patient (and no, I'm not counting Xenogears > GS from 2004). Also, all this "RBY gets 80%-100% of GS" talk (sorry KP) sounds a bit overblown. Sephiroth couldn't give that to Cloud on multiple instances (I believe it was usually 70%), so it's hard to imagine GS soaring past that when it's already holding up well. I understand GS may be a special exception, but we don't need to jump the gun on that just yet without seeing more.

Now, with all of that said, I'm happy about RBY's performance. It's not surviving R3 with LoZ:OoT in the mix unless FF8 bombs, but it'll definitely look respectable. Based off of LoZ:MM or GS from R1, RBY should be getting 53.96% or 54.46% against MGS (respectively)...and MGS is probably over-performing just a touch by being the only non-Nintendo title in a match against a game and series people have had mixed feelings with in the past (those feelings have probably passed now for Pokemon, but it's hard to say for LoZ:MM). There's little doubt in my mind more people have played RBY than MGS, too, so...I'll play conservative and say I like RBY > MGS with 54%. Any higher and the RBY/GS/LoZ:MM overlaps start to get way too high for my liking, but I don't think the numbers completely disagree with going higher either. It did bring in a new generation of gamers, and Pokemon is two things GameFAQs loves: Nintendo and RPG.....

For the Top Ten status, I'm still inclined to put it in there, but I want to see how it holds up to LoZ:OoT first. If it holds up pretty well -- especially if it does better than SM64 from 2004, which feels like it should be a given (format + 44+% on MGS despite a second Pokemon and the other N64-LoZ + not sharing the N64 = 23.74+% on LoZ:OoT, right?) -- then I don't see how you can keep RBY from being a Top Ten game unless the other contenders really impress. MGS is still a pretty strong game that I would call Top Twenty material, and RBY would probably beat MGS worse head-to-head than most games not in the Top Five could...and we've seen RBY is loved within the Nintendo fanbase twice now.


If it doesn't drop the ball entirely against LoZ:OoT, it cannot miss our Top Ten lists just based off of its own strength -- other games will need to impress more than RBY.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

Well that's not entirely true, I guess. FFVII and OoT have no LFF but huge overlap because of their high play rate. LFF is simply disproportionate overlap.

I believe you are correct. The top tier games all have very high playership rates such that there has to be a lot of overlap between all of them. Mario 3 for example has been played by the vast majority of the site and can be said to overlap with everything, but it will not appear to SFF/LFF everything. As long as effects caused by fanbase overlap are consistent with different games, we won't notice it and usually just call it part of a game's "natural strength."
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