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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 718

Master Moltar | Posted 5/17/2009 7:00:15 AM | message detail
GS and MM winning the morning vote over RBY? 'well then'

GS really holding up against RBY here. I'm more impressed with it than RBY. MGS is also going to fall like a rock after redeeming itself overnight...augh
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 41 - Bracket: MGS > MM - Vote: MGS (131/192)
Master Moltar | Posted 5/17/2009 7:02:31 AM | message detail
Actually RBY doing better at the beginning makes sense because it's more nostalgia-driven with the older audience.

Still, didn't think the kiddies preferred GS over it by this much though!
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 41 - Bracket: MGS > MM - Vote: MGS (131/192)
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/17/2009 7:21:00 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/17/2009 7:21:49 AM | message detail
RBY better hope that it's not SFFing GSC (in fact, it may as well hope for rSFF or something way outta left field like that). If it is indeed SFFing the weaker game, it might not even be that far ahead of it directly, which means it might not beat Metal Gear Solid in a traditional match.

Which means it might not be a Top 10er. I might be getting ahead of myself, but I certainly didn't expect a 57/43 split from the Pokes - I thought it would be closer to a tripling than that.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/17/2009 7:23:34 AM | message detail
Uh, if you took out GS nearly all of its votes would go to RBY. It would probably be some ridiculous number like 90%.

Hold on, let me do some comparisans.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/17/2009 7:25:36 AM | message detail
I understand that point, but this split is still very weird. If GSC is holding up this well now, I'm wondering why it couldn't beat MGS when it had all the advantages last round.
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Yoblazer: http://i37.tinypic.com/x1d2s9.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/17/2009 7:44:22 AM | message detail
I'm not seeing what's so weird about this. RBY beating MGS was always centered around it SFFing GS into the dirt. GS i just holding up far better than anyone expected.


If RBY and GS are splitting perfectly, then RBY gets 68.52% on MM and 57.21% on MGS.

If 90% of GS' votes would've gone to RBY, with 5% each going to MM and MGS, then RBY gets 67.47% on MM and 55.89% on MGS.

If 80% of GS' votes would've gone to RBY, with 10% each going to MM and MGS, then RBY gets 64.59% against MM and 53.66% against MGS.

RBY is getting 57.55% against GS directly. Using the GS vs. MGS Round 1 comparisan, RBY gets 54.27% on MGS.

None of this accounts for the fact that, upon removing MM, the majority of its votes (55-45, maybe 60-40) would go to RBY. Or that FF1 and FF4 combined couldn't beat FF1's Round 1 score against SMW, leading to a possibility of games in a series underperforming in a poll when together. Or that MGS stands out like nuts. Yeah, RBY is fine.

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/17/2009 7:45:30 AM | message detail
Even G/S+R/B/Y combined at the moment is only nearly a 58-42 victory. Take into account that RBY+GS combined is worth like 4% more on Majora's Mask than RBY was alone in round one, so if you tone it down to make it adjust, you'll probably end up again with a R/B/Y victory over MGS with 55% or less. I mean we don't really have anything pointing to MGS losing by a LOT. It's not something that's impossible to overturn with OoT, though I wouldn't count on it. Since... for OoT to hurt Pokemon, it should mean Majora's Mask is too, so... er... X_X

Oh well, stranger things have happened
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 7:56:16 AM | message detail
Why people thought RBY would get higher than 55% indirectly is beyond me.

Which is why the top 10 (especially five) talk last round was rediculous.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192
charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 7:59:21 AM | message detail
it is also ridiculous that I can't spell ridiculous
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192
Master Moltar | Posted 5/17/2009 8:07:18 AM | message detail
I always figured that MGS/RBY would be fairly close, and that RBY could still be a Top 10 game because MGS would be a Top 15 game.

I wanted to believe in MGS!
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 41 - Bracket: MGS > MM - Vote: MGS (131/192)
charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:10:34 AM | message detail
I don't think RBY is a top 10 game anymore with some of the performances we've seen, still top 15 is still possible.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/17/2009 8:16:39 AM | message detail
Time to predict tomorrow's match.

Well, this is another hugely anticipated matchup, folks. Not only does the Best. Game. Ever. get to show its strength once again, but StarCraft is here. Half-Life should've been here, but oh well. Ocarina of Time will show that it's not the Best. Game. Ever. for nothing, and it will rock the house down. As such, I think 40% is a good mark to shoot for. Wait, didn't Super Mario 64 manage that against Chrono Trigger/Symphony of the Night/Yoshi's Island? Yeah, screw that. Then again, Chrono Trigger > Final Fantasy VIII, but StarCraft > Symphony of the Night (despite whatever the stupid list says) and Final Fantasy IX > Yoshi's Island. Let's go for 40%.

At the same time, we have a major question; will StarCraft get to round 3 by taking advantage of two Final Fantasy games splitting? Uhm, no sir. The one case where vote totals can be used well to predict a match is with two games that were in the same match together even last round, and FFVIII managed 52k votes while StarCraft had 34k. Yeah, SC is toast. I still think it will be able to own an SFFd FFIX and go out in an honorable manner, though. I actually don't mind StarCraft losing to the ultimate love story anymore, to be honest.

Final Fantasy VIII - 25%, StarCraft - 20%, Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 40%, Final Fantasy IX - 15%
Prediction: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Final Fantasy VIII
Bracket: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > StarCraft
Favorites: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > StarCraft
Favorites Bracket: Zelda: Ocarina of Time > Half-Life

May the most atmospheric (maybe aside from GoldenEye) and cinematic game for the N64 to crush every game not named Final Fantasy VII (more for strength purposes though; I wouldn't mind if it lost to Metal Gear Solid, Resident Evil 4, Half-Life 2, Super Mario Galaxy, and/or tons of stuff on the top half of the bracket, including Final Fantasy VII).
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/17/2009 8:26:48 AM | message detail
I'm not sure why this performance wouldn't include RBY in the Top 10, but whatever!

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:28:56 AM | message detail
Unless you think MGS is number 11 or 12 I don't see how you think RBY would still be in the top 10.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/17/2009 8:29:53 AM | message detail
MGS is Top 15-20 easy. RBY getting 55% on it 1 on 1 is easy Top 10 inclusion, due to the Top 20 being so close in strength.

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Yesmar | Posted 5/17/2009 8:30:10 AM | message detail
Time | Pokemon RBY Metal Gear Solid
01:00 | 48.34% | 51.66%
02:00 | 44.61% | 55.39%
03:00 | 44.88% | 55.12%
04:00 | 44.26% | 55.74%
05:00 | 39.76% | 60.24%
06:00 | 39.09% | 60.91%
07:00 | 37.76% | 62.24%
08:00 | 37.72% | 62.28%
09:00 | 42.40% | 57.60%
10:00 | 43.85% | 56.15%
11:00 | 43.88% | 56.12%


Jeez. MGS was *killing* Pokemon from 4-8.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/17/2009 8:30:29 AM | message detail
I reckon there's a bigger gap between RBY and MGS than that.
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Lopen | Posted 5/17/2009 8:30:51 AM | message detail
Nothing immediately strikes me as wrong about MGS being #11 or #12.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/17/2009 8:46:20 AM | message detail
Time to analyze Super Mario 64's strength, and let's do so by seeing whether games that finished ahead of it in the x-stats and list can beat it.

Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas - Wow, there's no effing way San Andreas is stronger than Mario 64 like the stupid list indicates.
The Legend of Zelda - Wouldn't Mario 64 SFF it?
Zelda: Wind Waker - See above.
StarCraft - There's no way in hell that Mario 64 loses to this like the stupid x-stats indicate.
Halo - How did this game make the top 10 in both the x-stats and the list? Its match indicates that it may not even be top 25. Super Mario 64 will oust Halo no problem.
GoldenEye - Mario 64 should beat this no problem, with the way GoldenEye disappointed in round 1.
Metal Gear Solid - Pretty much same as GoldenEye.
Final Fantasy X - I think Mario 64 beats this now.
Super Smash Bros. Melee - Maybe Super Mario 64 (r?)SFFs it.
Final Fantasy VI - Same as GoldenEye/Metal Gear Solid.
Chrono Trigger - What did we just see, folks? Crono was once able to beat Mario, and now Chrono Trigger can't beat what is likely not the most popular Mario game on this site.
Super Mario Bros. 3 - I still think Mario 64 doesn't win against it.
Zelda: A Link to the Past - Mario 64 may feel SFF heat.
Zelda: Ocarina of Time - See above, except take out "may."
Final Fantasy VII - I don't think Mario 64 is strong enough yet.

BTW this is completely off topic but I find it funny that DOOM was coming off of being in the top 10 of two best game ever lists yet still lost in the first round. Of course, one of those lists had Perfect Dark, Okami, Contra, Metroid Prime, Knights of the Old Republic, BioShock, Soul Calibur, God of War, Shadow of the Colossus, Deus Ex, Gears of War, Half-Life, and SimCity in the top 50 as well, and that's in ascending order (meaning the last three were in the top 20!).
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/17/2009 8:52:59 AM | message detail
...I'm starting to think G/S really is rSFFing RBY here. The amount of 'GS is better, voters are nostalgia whores' whining on the board today is ridiculous.

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RockMFR 5 | Posted 5/17/2009 8:54:40 AM | message detail
I think these results show that we may see something like a 55/45 split between VIII and IX tomorrow. Definitely not going to be an SFF beatdown.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/17/2009 9:03:24 AM | message detail
What's better about GSC, anyway.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/17/2009 9:13:37 AM | message detail
Gameplay mechanics were greatly improved, and you got to visit the region from RBY after beating the game. And you fight the main character of RBY as the final boss.

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Master Moltar | Posted 5/17/2009 9:14:16 AM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #173
What's better about GSC, anyway.


Improves on RBY in almost every way.
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 41 - Bracket: MGS > MM - Vote: MGS (131/192)
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/17/2009 9:18:51 AM | message detail
I remember the last fight. I used my Steelix to beat all of his guys.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 5/17/2009 9:20:13 AM | message detail
Today's results mean absolutely nothing for tomorrow - or at least, no more than FFI/FFIV's performance did. Stop trying to take something from them. -_-
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/17/2009 10:01:20 AM | message detail
I got bored and started making match pics for next year.

http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/cbviii_mock_7_v1.png

*sigh*
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ffmasterjose | Posted 5/17/2009 10:18:18 AM | message detail
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/cbviii_mock_7_v1.png

Duke > Morrigan (TJF!)

Duke looks like Ron Perlman

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138/192 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Metal Gear Solid > Zelda: MM | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 10:26:30 AM | message detail
Why would GS rSFF RBY? GS is a solid game in its own right and would not be SFF as badly as Yoshi's Island.

Just face it guys you underestimated GS's indirect strength against RBY.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192
ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/17/2009 10:47:34 AM | message detail
Out of bordem: Anybody got any match pics they want me to make?
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ffmasterjose | Posted 5/17/2009 10:58:09 AM | message detail
Out of bordem: Anybody got any match pics they want me to make?

Sub-Zero/Jack Shephard/Seifer/Naked Snake

*Bearded Jack if applicable.

This is the task we give to you Zen

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138/192 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Metal Gear Solid > Zelda: MM | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/17/2009 11:07:59 AM | message detail
This needs to happen:

http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/charizard_2.png
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 11:07:59 AM | message detail
Yeah, honestly, after the first hour, MGS looked pretty bad. Now, I think it's looking pretty good. It's getting 56% on RBY, 61% on MM, and 63% on GS. I still say RBY wins directly, but it's not a blowout. I agree with Moltar in this being more impressive for GS than for RBY at this point. RBY hasn't even made any serious movement with the day vote yet.

But like with FFI/FFIV, you can't draw TOO much from a SFF match. There are too many unknowns. MGS still looking like a solid (haha, get it) top 15-20 game here. I guess what you think of it determines what you think of RBY. It's amazing how everyone last night was "Man, MGS sucks!" and now they're all like, "Yeah, I think MGS could be right outside the top ten!"
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/17/2009 11:13:30 AM | message detail
Yeah, I didn't expect RBY to be so power hour fueled - nearly all of MGS's gains since the power hour have come at RBY's expense, and it's MM and GS that are moving with the day. RBY still has a good argument for top ten status, but it's on the lower edge after we've seen Mario games kill this round.

This makes FFT look really bad, though, since Majora's Mask is beating it on MGS with two Pokeymanz in the poll. A moral victory for MGS > MM people, I suppose.
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Mustache...and Green...
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 11:14:06 AM | message detail
A moral victory for MGS > MM people, I suppose.

Whoo! That's like the only victory I get nowadays!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
BDawg | Posted 5/17/2009 11:14:22 AM | message detail
Maybe it's just me but putting up 33% in a triple SFF match really isn't impressing me at all. Yeah MGS won easily but it was mostly because G/S held up better than anybody thought it would.
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Should I start running now?
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 11:15:27 AM | message detail
For the record, a direct Majora's Mask comparison puts RBY at 53.58% on MGS. I'm not sure how reliable that is, but it's the most reliable thing we have at this point.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/17/2009 11:18:55 AM | message detail
Oh, and since Ocarina/FFVIII/Melee/FFX looks increasingly likely...which game takes second there? I'm going to reserve judgment until we see FFVIII deal with what should be a much weaker split with FFIX tomorrow...but I kinda like Melee for now.

(Which means KHII has a path to the finals what the)
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Mustache...and Green...
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 11:19:57 AM | message detail
I like whoever comes out on top between FFVIII and FFX. I'll favor the game that gets the better end of the split (which Melee certainly won't against OoT), and I doubt either one is very far from Melee to begin with.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/17/2009 11:23:58 AM | message detail
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/request_60.png
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
ffmasterjose | Posted 5/17/2009 11:34:21 AM | message detail
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/request_60.png

XD, that looks even more insane than what I had pictured in my head. Desktop'ed.

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138/192 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Metal Gear Solid > Zelda: MM | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 11:34:50 AM | message detail
Argh, if Seifer ever makes a contest and Bacon gives him that pic, that'd be awful.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
transience | Posted 5/17/2009 11:36:07 AM | message detail
jeeze, RBY died. this is a weird match -- everyone looks bad. well, except Majora I guess. I think I'll have to backpedal on my RBY rating - when it looked like it could 60/40 MGS I was behind it, but now it looks more like a 55-45 and that's not that good.

so how do we feel about Starcraft? we're talking a 64/36 match to a 53/47 match with Majora's Mask here.
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xyzzy
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 11:38:44 AM | message detail
It's more like 55/45 for RBY here, but I still like FFVIII, but nothing's really going to change my mind on that. MM could be beating RBY right now and I'd still say FFVIII wins tomorrow!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
transience | Posted 5/17/2009 11:40:31 AM | message detail
I expect that from you!
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yzzyx
charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 11:41:42 AM | message detail
Speaking of Seifer are we running the NRT after this contest?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 11:43:15 AM | message detail
I think there's really no need for another Nomination Rally Tournament. I mean, what other characters are there to rally for at this point that are worth it? If you can list me several characters, I'd be for it, but I can't think of many.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/17/2009 11:45:29 AM | message detail
Might as well post this now:

http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/Morrigan(Darkstalkers).jpg


Who is Morrigan?

Morrigan is the face of the Darkstalkers series; let's consult Wikipedia for more!

Morrigan is a succubus and the adopted daughter of Belial Aensland. When she was born, Morrigan was extremely powerful, so much so that Belial sealed away part of her power, one-third in himself to be returned upon his death, and one-third in a pocket dimension, which eventually became a being of its own, a succubus named Lilith. Unaware of Belial's action, Morrigan grew up and found her life in the Aensland castle dull, so she frequently visited the human world to look for entertainment.

Interested? Read on!

http://darkstalkers.wikia.com/wiki/Morrigan_Aensland


Why Morrigan?

Remember these matches?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=941
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=972

Yeah, yeah, "2002 isn't legitimate." Well, I guess we'll never get a good gauge on Morrigan's actual strength unless she gets into a new contest then, eh? I think she has the potential to make it out of round 1. With fodder like Frank West and Nathan Drake getting into the contest each year, she has a chance to land a decent placing and ride behind the coattails of a mid-to-high uppercarder.

And let's not forget this poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=842

And that's without a pic showing off her, uh, features.

Plus, we need more women in this contest. Women that won't stink up the contest. If anything, she'll get a pic like this:

http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/morrigan_example.png

...And will gain strength from that alone.

If you're thinking "oh Zen must just want her in because she has huge boobies," well, you're partially right, because TJF does have an impact on the contests (not as much as it does now), and I do love the boobies, but the main reason is that Darkstalkers needs a rep in this contest. The series is under-appreciated outside of Board 8, and even if Morrigan doesn't get out of round 1, it'll be nice to see her on the front page again. Besides, would you rather have Morrigan or another Kaim Argonar?

What do we have to lose, men (and nintendogirl)?!


Morrigan Army
ZenOfThunder


Picture Gallery

http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/Sf-morrigan.gif
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/384194-27240-morrigan_super.gif
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/281107-167439-morrigan_super.jpg
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/405331-80925-morrigan_super.gif
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/morrigan.png
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/Morrigan_by_Artgerm.jpg
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/Morrigan.jpg
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/281073-177000-morrigan_super.jpg
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/667171-f_morrigancolor_super.jpg
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/Morrigan_and_Lillith_by_Jujika.jpg
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/68b43ea7fc4b8d5608ffa2ff49ee3589.jpg
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/273024-82328-morrigan_super.jpg
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/356458-172328-morrigan_super.jpg
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/darkstalkers_morriganlilith_poster.jpg
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/darkstalkers-v1-01-2004-sammpuar-dcp-00.jpg
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. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/17/2009 11:45:39 AM | message detail
Cid Highwind

Yeah, more FF7 but come on we can't have a FF7 festival without Cid. Plus he has the Cid factor!
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.