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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 718

LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:31:52 PM | message detail
Don't worry. You and I will duel soon enough.

There can only be one.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 10:32:33 PM | message detail
...Whatever.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
xp1337 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:33:59 PM | message detail
I'm not saying RBY doesn't have strength, I'm saying that it does not get away from OoT unscathed, and that unless FF8 was a fluke last round (or Starcraft was even more overrated than we thought), it's not going to need much, if anything, to pass it.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 5/16/2009 10:35:45 PM | message detail
Pikachu also had a pretty suspect match against Alucard with Captain Falcon in the match. Really, the only time Pikachu has seemed to stand up well with Nintendo was the Samus match. And that was right after knocking out L-Block.

I don't really know which Pokemon we're supposed to be looking at though.
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FastFalcon and Solid Snake snapped my neck in the guru contest.
ZFS | Posted 5/16/2009 10:36:06 PM | message detail
I don't think anyone's knocking RBY's strength, just saying that when against Ocarina of Time it's going to suffer enough for FFVIII to make it past.

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a metal slime appears
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 10:36:53 PM | message detail
Yes, I am feeling a tad frustrated by now.

Exactly what would you like us to say?
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Yoblazer: http://i42.tinypic.com/avk9ie.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 10:38:11 PM | message detail
I haven't kept up with the last 50 or so votes, but is anyone denying Pokemon has a shot? I'm certainly not, but I'm not willing to give it favorite status just yet.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 5/16/2009 10:41:17 PM | message detail
I'm going with 50% FFVIII, 45% RBY and 5% MGS as odds for taking second at the moment. As long as FFVIII advances tomorrow, I don't think that'll change either. I don't trust SFF matches at all.
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FastFalcon and Solid Snake snapped my neck in the guru contest.
xp1337 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:41:54 PM | message detail
In a hypothetical OoT/RBY/FF8/MGS match?

I wouldn't write off RBY, no, of course not. Especially not before seeing FF8 tomorrow. And unless FF8 does something incredible there, I still don't write it off.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 10:41:57 PM | message detail
Exactly what would you like us to say?

I mean, people aren't wrong for thinking FFVIII is the favorite, but comments like...what was it...

Ocarina should murder Pokemon,

...Yeah.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 10:42:47 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 10:43:32 PM | message detail
It's going to murder everything!

Also, I'm now pulling for Starcraft to make it through two more rounds. I'd XD for days.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
xp1337 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:48:14 PM | message detail
Starcraft was just warming up in Round 1! It was simply building the Stargates it would need for the rest of the contest!

Round 2 is when the Carriers arrive.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/16/2009 10:52:11 PM | message detail
I still think Pokemon will feel SFF heat from the Best. Game. Ever. Call me nuts, but I still think so. Anyways, time to analyze the vote totals!

Super Mario 64 kept 85.04% of its votes from last round.
Castlevania: Symphony of the Night kept 61.23% of its votes from last round.
Chrono Trigger kept 64.01% of its votes from last round.
Yoshi's Island kept 29.53% of its votes from last round.

Yoshi's Island was SFFd to the ground, and at the same time Mario 64 stayed hardcore. Chrono Trigger and Castlevania did average as far as keeping votes go. This makes Mario 64's chances next round look better, but if it matters, Mario 64 had a bit of STF here since it was the only 3d game. Next round Chrono Trigger could have STF for being the only 2d game. Plus Mario 64 will have to share votes with another N64 game.

Another thing to note is that while Super Mario 64 did pull off an upset (which I like since Mario 64 is one of the few games in the tourney that I have beaten and also the first game I had ever heard of, though I voted for Chrono Trigger), look at the games, and you can harken them to characters that have been disappointing. Crono and Alucard were mostly disappointments until last year, and Yoshi disappointed last year. Something tells me that Super Smash Bros. Melee/Brawl could take on Chrono Trigger. Final Fantasy X and even VIII look like good candidates, too.
hochiminhX | Posted 5/16/2009 10:56:09 PM | message detail
MGS is finished next round. It's really not that strong. None of the MGS games are that strong

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I will bury you.
Gaddswell | Posted 5/16/2009 10:58:30 PM | message detail
So... how about that MM / GSC match?

GSC seems to be making some headway right now.
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Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
Lopen | Posted 5/16/2009 10:58:52 PM | message detail
Pfft, complaining about lack of Pokemon respect, how about lack of Starcraft respect with these hypothetical matches!

Starcraft will come close to beating FFVIII + FFIX tomorrow, bank on it!!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Meeks54 | Posted 5/16/2009 11:00:15 PM | message detail

From: Lopen | #117
Pfft, complaining about lack of Pokemon respect, how about lack of Starcraft respect with these hypothetical matches!

Starcraft will come close to beating FFVIII + FFIX tomorrow, bank on it!!





SC won't even come close to FF VIII.

Let alone FF VIII+IX.

It has a much better chance of coming in 4th than second.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
Lopen | Posted 5/16/2009 11:00:28 PM | message detail
Er, that is, combined. Believe in the power of hatred, oh yes. Let the hatred flow.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 11:05:25 PM | message detail
MGS is looking pretty good right now. It might be able to hit 55% on RBY overnight, which I think would be safe.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 11:07:17 PM | message detail
And yes, I agree, Lopen. As much as I love FFVII and OOT....let the power of anti-votes spread across the land! This contest too shall produce a result as shocking as L-Block and Snake.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
Lopen | Posted 5/16/2009 11:15:12 PM | message detail
You must realize, how Starcraft got momentum in 2004. It wasn't all rallying. It was because it was fighting for the will of the people.

The first round, it felled public enemy #1 in Halo and the villainous Microsoft.
The second round, it went against Kingdom Hearts, the kiddie franchise which hadn't become respected yet. (see Soul Calibur's performance and Sora's whoppings beforehand)
The third round? The then black sheep of the Zelda series, the Wind Waker.

On this day, GameFAQs has deemed a new group to be the enemy of the people. With their support of L-Block and Solid Snake over superior foes, this has become more and more evident. The Legend of Zelda and Final Fantasy are the enemy. With such a high concentration of enemy units in the vicinity, Starcraft will once again assume the role of the people's champion. It will not rest until they have all been defeated.

The path to championship begins tomorrow. History! Observe it and love it!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/16/2009 11:39:10 PM | message detail
Some thoughts on things:

Now, it seems that Chrono Trigger disappointed in a SPRITE match. That doesn't look too good, unless only the characters overperform in sprite situations.

The stats seem to show that Resident Evil could beat Yoshi's Island. That would've been quite an upset if Resident Evil and, say, Lufia II were switched, seeing as Mario was doing so well in the contest up to that point.

And, well, Super Mario 64 pulling off the unlikely upset definetely makes up for being horribly shafted last time. Super Metroid's performance also makes up for being horribly shafted last time, not to mention taking a 1 seed in Video Game Madness V (over at Rotten Tomatoes) and getting upset by Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri in the first round.

According to the x-stats so far, here are some upsets that could've taken place.

Pong or The Oregon Trail over Donkey Kong or Punch Out
Resident Evil over Yoshi's Island or EarthBound
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/16/2009 11:40:46 PM | message detail
Some thoughts on things:

Now, it seems that Chrono Trigger disappointed in a SPRITE match. That doesn't look too good, unless only the characters overperform in sprite situations.

The stats seem to show that Resident Evil could beat Yoshi's Island. That would've been quite an upset if Resident Evil and, say, Lufia II were switched, seeing as Mario was doing so well in the contest up to that point.

And, well, Super Mario 64 pulling off the unlikely upset definetely makes up for being horribly shafted last time. Super Metroid's performance also makes up for being horribly shafted last time, not to mention taking a 1 seed in Video Game Madness V (over at Rotten Tomatoes) and getting upset by Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri in the first round.

According to the x-stats so far, here are some upsets that could've taken place.

Pong or The Oregon Trail over Donkey Kong or Punch Out
Resident Evil over Yoshi's Island or EarthBound
hochiminhX | Posted 5/16/2009 11:42:44 PM | message detail
No, CT did not have a pic advantage because Gato was the main thing in that picture. Gato =/= a good picture for Chrono Trigger
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I will bury you.
Lopen | Posted 5/16/2009 11:44:00 PM | message detail
If RE were in that four pack, I have a feeling it would've been the favorite for second place. I would've taken it, at least.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
greatone10 | Posted 5/17/2009 12:45:38 AM | message detail
I'd have easily taken RE over Earthbound and probably YI too.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
transience | Posted 5/17/2009 12:47:50 AM | message detail
looks like G/S beats Majora's Mask despite RBY in the poll. that's pretty impressive.

or maybe Majora just sucks, but either way it's got a 60/40 split going on which is pretty good.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/17/2009 12:51:05 AM | message detail
Nobody would have taken GSC over Metroid Prime.

This is the worst contest ever.
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Yoblazer: http://i37.tinypic.com/x1d2s9.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ffmasterjose | Posted 5/17/2009 12:53:45 AM | message detail
I agree with hochi. Gato does not bring in the votes.
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138/192 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Metal Gear Solid > Zelda: MM | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
ffmasterjose | Posted 5/17/2009 12:56:02 AM | message detail
not to mention taking a 1 seed in Video Game Madness V (over at Rotten Tomatoes) and getting upset by Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri in the first round.

Who cares about a contest that's not even related to GameFAQs? You're better off just going "eenie-meenie-miney-moe" for your entire bracket if you want to bring in stuff like that to the table.

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138/192 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Metal Gear Solid > Zelda: MM | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
transience | Posted 5/17/2009 12:56:41 AM | message detail
I would have.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg
greatone10 | Posted 5/17/2009 12:57:34 AM | message detail
Gato may be the main focus of the picture, but Chrono and Marle sure draw some attention with their poses.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
transience | Posted 5/17/2009 1:05:09 AM | message detail
this match is probably over, but I just haven't gotten over this....

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3463&type=1&seconds=3600&max=0
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xyzzy
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/17/2009 1:29:14 AM | message detail
Okay, whoops about the VGM stuff. I just find that contest to be hilarious sometimes.

I didn't write the percentages in my analysis, but I predicted 40-30-20-10.
vash_131 | Posted 5/17/2009 1:46:59 AM | message detail
GSC just cut RBY a few updates ago lol
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Character Battle V (2006): 37th place
BOOMSHAKALAKA1 | Posted 5/17/2009 1:47:58 AM | message detail
man mgs is tearing it up now wow
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/17/2009 2:04:22 AM | message detail
Heh, Majora's Mask finally gets the cut.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
HotSkitty | Posted 5/17/2009 4:44:59 AM | message detail
Man, Red/Blue/Yellow had one hell of a drop.

Should recover when the morning vote comes, though.
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Never gonna give you up.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 4:53:05 AM | message detail
Ouch talk about epic night fall...

Well let's go for third GS!
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/17/2009 4:59:31 AM | message detail
This day vote is going to be something to watch. MGS probably drops 4%-5%.

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 5:15:34 AM | message detail
This is before the day vote, but people should give MGS a chance next round. It has 62.7% on MM and I don't see GS affecting it more than PD/BK last round. RBY will suffer a bit of SFF from OoT making FFVIII the only opponent.

Of course the day vote could change my view.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/17/2009 5:28:30 AM | message detail
Pretty good night vote for MGS, nearly a 4000 vote lead, which is going to be more than enough even once the other three start tearing it apart with its day vote.

For the record, R/B/Y wins with 51.32% based on Majora's Mask now. That'll definitely change by the end of the match once MGS drops like a rock, but that looks a lot better for MGS.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/17/2009 6:02:31 AM | message detail
G/S held up a lot better than I thought. 58-42. I wonder if the remake announcement helped anyway. Probably not huh...
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/17/2009 6:11:27 AM | message detail
And if somehow RBY's performance against GS falls in line equally with their indirect strength, RBY would beat MGS with 55%. Not something I'd rely on anytime soon though
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 6:15:39 AM | message detail
RBY is defintly SFFing GS, even if it is smaller than expected.

I guess that's the final nail for Starcraft. The only way it could win now is either by massive rallying or hoping that the FFIV/FF anomaly happens again.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192
red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 6:22:13 AM | message detail
It's impossible to say if RBY is SFFing GS. It'll go up with the day vote though, so that projection should end up around 58%ish perhaps.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/17/2009 6:25:00 AM | message detail
RBY has been falling... like a rock since the beginning of the hour though.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192
red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 6:25:58 AM | message detail
Actually, RBY is still dropping with the morning here, though not as fast as MGS is. MM and GS are the ones that are going up. RBY probably gets that turned around within another hour or so though.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
red sox 777 | Posted 5/17/2009 6:27:21 AM | message detail
Oh.....right. I'm sorry, I was being stupid. That projection depends on the ratio of RBY to GS, not RBY to MGS. In that case, it probably won't end up moving much from the 55% it is at now.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.