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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 718

red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:02:53 PM | message detail
OOT > FF8. FF8 isn't that far behind RBY, and OOT is the ultimate force in Nintendo SFF. It should at least be able to LFF RBY, whether or not it will press it down much.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 10:03:01 PM | message detail
Ocarina is going to do bad things to Pokemon. Bad, bad things.

I've heard people say this...but why would it? RBY and OoT have 0 overlap except both being Nintendo, and we've seen Pokemon deal with overlap very well in just about every match they've ever been in.

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ZFS | Posted 5/16/2009 10:03:03 PM | message detail
OoT/RBY/FFVIII/MGS. Who ya got?

MGS has no shot here, so it's between RBY and FFVIII. Ocarina should murder Pokemon, if Mario 64 is any indication, though that could be a special situation. I'd say FFVIII for now, assuming it makes it there.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:03:20 PM | message detail
Your expectations will be crushed, just as mine usually are!

Feel my pain!
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ZFS | Posted 5/16/2009 10:04:21 PM | message detail
Unfortunately for Pokemon, all Ocarina of Time needs is overlap to be 'hey, we're pullin' from the same fanbase!' It could hold up, but I don't have any trouble believing that OoT could destroy any Nintendo game.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:04:32 PM | message detail
Yeah, I think R/B/Y will stand up fine to OoT. It won't get crushed, but I don't think the gap between R/B/Y and FFVIII is large enough for it to handle TOO much SFF.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 10:04:45 PM | message detail
Ocarina isn't going to 'murder' Pokemon. I doubt it even SFFs Pokemon.

Seriously, name ONE instance of Pokemon coming off poorly from Nintendo overlap. I can't think of any off the top of my head.

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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:05:17 PM | message detail
Fox/Pikachu
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:05:20 PM | message detail
Seriously, name ONE instance of Pokemon coming off poorly from Nintendo overlap. I can't think of any off the top of my head.

Fox/Pikachu

You didn't have to say when it was!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 10:05:34 PM | message detail
I mean, if you want proof of how much Pokemon overlaps with Zelda, look at today poll. MM doesn't look like it's being affected too much.

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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:05:48 PM | message detail
Majora's Mask doesn't seem to be bothering RBY much at all here. Ocarina, well, it's friggin' Ocarina, but RBY is setting a pretty good precedent about not being annoyed by Zelda games.
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transience | Posted 5/16/2009 10:05:53 PM | message detail
how about Midna/Mewtwo
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:05:55 PM | message detail
Oh, and Marth/Lucario, too, I guess.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:06:24 PM | message detail
how about Midna/Mewtwo

I was honestly going to mention this, but I don't know if anyone considers that LFF.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 10:06:30 PM | message detail
Using a Pre-2k6 match only validates my argument.

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xp1337 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:06:39 PM | message detail
Ocarina isn't going to 'murder' Pokemon. I doubt it even SFFs Pokemon.

Seriously, name ONE instance of Pokemon coming off poorly from Nintendo overlap. I can't think of any off the top of my head.


The problem here is we haven't seen Pokemon go against a stronger Nintendo yet. And Ocarina of Time is just in a category of its own.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:06:55 PM | message detail
Also, I have to object to the idea that FFVII and OOT are miles above the field. While it may be true that #3 is closer to #10 than #2, that's just because 3-10 are so closely packed together. Haven't seen anything from FFVII yet to show that it more than 55-45s #3, and we'll see about OOT tomorrow.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 10:07:00 PM | message detail
Lucario actually did far better in that match than he had any right too, I think. He dragged Marth down insanely.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:08:31 PM | message detail
He did drag Marth down quite a bit, but he still got creamed. That's all OoT would have to do to R/B/Y.

Haven't seen anything from FFVII yet to show that it more than 55-45s #3,

I haven't seen anything look like it could put up 45% on FFVII.
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/16/2009 10:09:09 PM | message detail
Mario/Zelda/Mega Man X/Mudkip
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 10:11:14 PM | message detail
...I mean, really. I feel pretty good about this argument if the best candidates people can come up with are Lucario and Mudkip (who aren't even in RBY).

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:11:26 PM | message detail
For the record, if we assume that Majora's Mask hasn't suffered SFF in either round, R/B/Y beats MGS with 55.62% as of right now.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:12:16 PM | message detail
I feel pretty good about this argument if the best candidates people can come up with are Lucario and Mudkip (who aren't even in RBY).

Again, there was Midna/Mewtwo.

You know, the same Midna that got crushed and came closer to Kratos Aurion than she did to Scorpion in 2007.
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ZFS | Posted 5/16/2009 10:12:25 PM | message detail
...I mean, really. I feel pretty good about this argument if the best candidates people can come up with are Lucario and Mudkip (who aren't even in RBY).

It's not really a fair argument. This is the first year we've ever seen anything Pokemon do this well.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:13:21 PM | message detail
And I honestly think using Pikachu is a bad idea for Pokemon strength because he's not all Poke Power. He's got some SSB Power, too.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 10:13:21 PM | message detail
Midna did 1% worse against Cloud than she did in Round 1 of 2k8.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:14:15 PM | message detail
Midna did 1% worse against Cloud than she did in Round 1 of 2k8.

Still a pretty pathetic showing for Mewtwo nonetheless, and he's the closest to pure R/B/Y you get.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 10:14:30 PM | message detail
I'm just saying. We've seen Pokemon do very well with overlap many times, hold up to Nintendo many times, apparently have very little overlap with a Zelda game...

And now it's going to be SFFd by OoT? Sorry, I'll believe it when it happens.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:15:22 PM | message detail
Ocarina of Time can always be the exception, just like FFVII can always be the exception. When you're #1 with a bullet, you can do whatever you want and get away with it!
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:15:29 PM | message detail
Majora's Mask should be getting hurt today due to the 2 Pokemon games, and MGS stands out, so RBY probably beats MGS worse than that projection.

What do people think Goldeneye is worth on Mario 64 indirectly? And how would Goldeneye/SOTN go now?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:16:00 PM | message detail
Yeah, MGS starting to pull away now. 65 vote gain there.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 10:16:10 PM | message detail
Yeah, FF7 sure SFFd CT into the dirt back in 2k4!



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transience | Posted 5/16/2009 10:16:44 PM | message detail
I agree with Leon. you can't compare other stuff to OOT or FF7. they're the big gigantic exceptions to the rule.

I'll back RBY unless FF8 does something unusual tomorrow though. (like lose!)
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xp1337 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:17:24 PM | message detail
Yeah, FF7 sure SFFd CT into the dirt back in 2k4!

So, which matches before 2k6 are we allowed to use and which ones are we not?
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ZFS | Posted 5/16/2009 10:17:44 PM | message detail
It didn't back then, but I'd bet a lot it will this time.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:19:03 PM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | Mario 64 | SOTN | C. Trigger | Yoshi's Isle | Demographic
EBV | 39.06% | 14.25% | 39.06% | 7.63% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 39.12% | 14.59% | 39.46% | 6.84% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 37.31% | 15.39% | 39.97% | 7.34% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 40.81% | 15.10% | 36.36% | 7.72% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 42.48% | 13.52% | 36.40% | 7.60% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 41.02% | 14.93% | 36.83% | 7.21% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 38.72% | 16.36% | 38.41% | 6.51% | (22:00-24:00)

Mario 64 with a strong power hour and board vote, drops off a little with the night, goes back up with the morning, makes a killing with the late morning/early afternoon vote, and drops a bit with the afternoon vote. CT is constant all night and then once it drops nearly 4%, it's constant during the day. SOTN obviously does best at night and worst during the day. Who cares about what Yoshi's Island did here?

Yesterday's stats:

Super Mario 64 – 50.00%
Chrono Trigger – 48.19%
Symphony of the Night – 26.63%
Yoshi’s Island – 15.35%

Lower Half Stats

Super Mario 64 – 50.00%
Chrono Trigger – 48.19%
Symphony of the Night (Round 1) – 33.52%
Resident Evil – 31.19%
Yoshi’s Island (Round 1) – 28.62%
Symphony of the Night (Round 2) – 26.63%
Earthbound – 20.90%
Kirby Super Star – 19.57%
Yoshi’s Island (Round 2) – 15.35%
Lufia II – 6.73%
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 10:19:05 PM | message detail
So, which matches before 2k6 are we allowed to use and which ones are we not?

Number of FF7 matches after 2k4: 1
Square games it faced: Suikoden

I work with what I have.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:20:22 PM | message detail
Yeah, FF7 sure SFFd CT into the dirt back in 2k4!

I'm really starting to be of the opinion that CT overperformed in the finals, like Sephiroth against Cloud in 2003. CT disappointed this year, and LTTP really hasn't done anything to solidify #3 status. Like I said, I only have it there because I haven't found something to replace it.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 10:21:38 PM | message detail
I think CT overperformed too, but even taking that it into account it still didn't get SFFd at all. OoT and FF7 can be big exceptions, but they can be big exceptions. The smart money is on RBY holding up well.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:21:40 PM | message detail
And if MGS can keep this up for a few more hours, it should have a big enough lead to be safe. It's really flying now.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:22:20 PM | message detail
Of course it's not going to get SFF'd if it's getting rallied and bandwagoned!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 10:22:28 PM | message detail
Anyway, I'm looking forward to RBY having an unhindered board vote next round! FFVIII? MGS? OoT? Bracket voting probably dead?

let's do this

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:23:09 PM | message detail
OoT's board vote is fine, and MGS's is, too. FFVIII's the one that's gonna get hammered there.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:24:10 PM | message detail
So, which matches before 2k6 are we allowed to use and which ones are we not?

Number of FF7 matches after 2k4: 1
Square games it faced: Suikoden

I work with what I have.


Number of times RBY or GSC has faced a stronger Nintendo game ever: ...0.

So no, we can't point to a situation where Pokemon has come out on the bad side of SFF, but that may be related to the fact that it hasn't been in a situation where that's even possible yet.

Maybe it isn't affected at all, but that's not because we can't find a spot where it happened.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:25:32 PM | message detail
Actually, I'll grant Diamond/Pearl looked okay despite Galaxy, but I'm also not going to buy for a second that either game wasn't hurting the other pretty badly, and Ocarina of Time is no Galaxy.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 5/16/2009 10:27:00 PM | message detail
Nobody brings up the Pikachu/Luigi match? Pikachu went from 33-30 on Dante to 18-26.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:27:41 PM | message detail
People don't bring it up because it's generally accepted that Pikachu overperformed the round before rather than underperforming there. He actually held up to Luigi rather well.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 5/16/2009 10:29:08 PM | message detail
I thought we threw out any Leon/Dante theories after seeing them both perform so well last year.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 10:30:05 PM | message detail
Pikachu still feels like a fluke there to me. Dante likely beats Pikachu fair and square.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 10:31:08 PM | message detail
You know what? I've been hammering RBY having strength into the stats topic since before the bracket came out. I can take another round of naysaying before another match of vindication.

Yes, I am feeling a tad frustrated by now.

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