GameFAQs Contests

advertisement
Click Here

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 718

UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/16/2009 9:16:55 PM | message detail
Nice shot, Snake!



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
---
`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
Just Some Person | Posted 5/16/2009 9:17:57 PM | message detail
HONK HONK

---
The sauce is weak with this one. But...if he could be churned, he would make a powerful stir-fry.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/16/2009 9:18:31 PM | message detail
The man is no match for the legend, I'm afraid.
---
`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 9:18:32 PM | message detail
http://mgsgolf.ytmnd.com/
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
XxSoulxX | Posted 5/16/2009 9:19:01 PM | message detail
HONKS
---
ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'. - Topaz Kitsune
Believe it or not, the Internet is serious business - Biolizard28
greatone10 | Posted 5/16/2009 9:46:28 PM | message detail
Looks like Pokemon is desperate to catch an Ekans.
---
Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 9:47:00 PM | message detail
Aw yeah
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 9:47:25 PM | message detail
So what lead does MGS need? 1000? 2000?

Over 9000?

---
http://thengamer.com/guru/
RPGuy96 | Posted 5/16/2009 9:47:27 PM | message detail
Oddly enough, GS stalled in the 40 and 45 minute updates last round, just like RBY did this round. Except MGS had thrice the vote lead on GS. Definitely don't think RBY is out of this match - am I alone on this and am being Lopen'd?
---
Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 9:48:06 PM | message detail
Nah, RPGuy. If RBY keeps this up it can definitely win.

(now watch the next update be a 50 vote MGS gain; so it goes)

---
http://thengamer.com/guru/
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 9:48:42 PM | message detail
Nah, I definitely think R/B/Y still has a shot at first place, knowing MGS's horrible day vote history. I won't feel safe with this one until I see what kind of lead it's got in the morning.
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
xp1337 | Posted 5/16/2009 9:48:59 PM | message detail
So what lead does MGS need? 1000? 2000?

I'd say 2500.

The day vote should split between the Nintendo games, but SM64 did turn nearly 4000 votes yesterday. Not that MGS is CT or anything, but...
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
transience | Posted 5/16/2009 9:49:29 PM | message detail
you're Lopenning. :)

it wasn't 'directed' at you or anyone -- more like everyone. I can't find a list that doesn't have LTTP at 3. I don't even like RBY to be there but I get the sense that LTTP is there because nothing else sounds like it can even be the third strongest game. it's just so far from FF7 or OOT that the #3 spot should be vacated.
---
xyzzy
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 5/16/2009 9:49:32 PM | message detail
I'm still amazed that every single one of you has SMW in your top 10, when it got 55% on FF1.

I assume you're all going to kick it out the top 20 when it losts to FFIV next round?
---
FastFalcon and Solid Snake snapped my neck in the guru contest.
red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 9:49:34 PM | message detail
RBY's not out of it. It just needs to keep MGS's lead to, say......2000 overnight.
---
Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/16/2009 9:50:02 PM | message detail
The day vote should split between the Nintendo games, but SM64 did turn nearly 4000 votes yesterday. Not that MGS is CT or anything, but...

It's called momentum, if SM64 was down 4000 votes when it started its comeback trust me it wouldn't have won.
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192
charmander6000 | Posted 5/16/2009 9:50:51 PM | message detail
Metal Gear Solid is getting ready to tear up this night vote.
---
Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: MGS > FFT Points: 133/192
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 9:50:52 PM | message detail

From: Lieutenant Kettch | #014
I'm still amazed that every single one of you has SMW in your top 10, when it got 55% on FF1.

I assume you're all going to kick it out the top 20 when it losts to FFIV next round?


I still think FFIV can win that match and I probably wouldn't boot SMW out of the top ten.
---
Yoblazer: http://i37.tinypic.com/x1d2s9.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 5/16/2009 9:51:11 PM | message detail
I debated between FF8 and World before going with World.
---
xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 9:51:12 PM | message detail
I'm still amazed that every single one of you has SMW in your top 10, when it got 55% on FF1.

Honestly, I'd say the gap between the bottom of the top 10 and the top 25 isn't THAT large...
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/16/2009 9:51:50 PM | message detail
It's a lot easier to turn 4000 votes when your bad time is pulling 47% or so on someone than when you're pulling 40%.
---
http://i77.photobucket.com/albums/j69/War13104/CenaJFrog.gif
hey look i'm war and i'm stupid - WVI
lightsout06 | Posted 5/16/2009 9:52:05 PM | message detail
Redsox can u explain what the Post Pokehate generation is?
---
"As a rule, men worry more about what they can't see than about what they can. " - Julius Caesar
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 9:52:45 PM | message detail
What was up with Pokemon's comparatively weaksauce board vote, anyway? I almost want to attribute part of it to the fanbase being so annoying, but...

actually let's do that.
---
Yoblazer: http://i42.tinypic.com/avk9ie.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 9:53:35 PM | message detail
GS: B8 prefers it
MGS: BRACKETS
MM: BRACKETS

---
http://thengamer.com/guru/
MetricTrout | Posted 5/16/2009 9:53:36 PM | message detail
I'm still amazed that every single one of you has SMW in your top 10, when it got 55% on FF1.

That was a fluke match that drew 135000 votes. FF1/2's real strength is proven by what happened next round.
---
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 9:54:21 PM | message detail
Indeed. Had CT been up 1800 it's very doubtful Mario 64 would have come back. Had CT been up 2500, Mario 64 would have had some difficulty winning hours at all. CT actually held up much better with the day vote yesterday than it has done since 2005- it went from 51% to 48%- a loss of 3% against a Nintendo game with a strong day vote.
---
Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 9:54:58 PM | message detail
Damn straight. FF1 is only worth about 19% on SMW.
---
Yoblazer: http://i37.tinypic.com/x1d2s9.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lopen | Posted 5/16/2009 9:55:12 PM | message detail
"Lopen"ing? What.

RBY isn't out of this !!
---
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 9:55:38 PM | message detail
Whoa, huge gain for MGS there. Power Hour looks to be over.
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
Lopen | Posted 5/16/2009 9:55:44 PM | message detail
70 vote lead extension as I say that "aw yeah"
---
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 9:55:47 PM | message detail
Yeesh. There goes the Power Hour.

---
http://thengamer.com/guru/
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/16/2009 9:56:00 PM | message detail
Ok, RBY. You need less of those updates.

A LOT LESS!
---
http://i77.photobucket.com/albums/j69/War13104/CenaJFrog.gif
hey look i'm war and i'm stupid - WVI
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 9:56:45 PM | message detail
Aw yeah, LOPEN'D
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 9:56:53 PM | message detail
Also, how in the heck did this series lose to Metroid in 2006? It's not like 2006 was ages ago - that contest was still comparatively recent and was in the middle of a site-wide Nintendo boost that should have, if anything, boosted something like Pokemon. Judging by how it performed, there's no way Diamond/Pearl was the catalyst, so it's gotta be something else...
---
Yoblazer: http://i37.tinypic.com/x1d2s9.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 9:57:10 PM | message detail
The Post Pokehate generation just refers to the people who started gaming after Pokehate had died down along with Pokemon's status as a cultural phenomenon. It's not a very large fanbase on this site.....not too many voters started with the PS2/GC/Xbox. Either way, this generation won't feel nostalgia for RBY.
---
Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 9:57:37 PM | message detail
Metroid won there for the same reason Mega Man beat Mario Kart: respect.

---
http://thengamer.com/guru/
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 9:57:52 PM | message detail
Yeah, that's still kinda weird.

Anyone take Metroid > Pokemon NOW?
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 9:58:23 PM | message detail
You mean oldassness. It looks like all those old fogie series overperformed.
---
Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
xp1337 | Posted 5/16/2009 9:58:31 PM | message detail
I'm not aware I said SM64 could have comeback if it started at 3500 down in the morning vote.

I simply remarked that it reversed nearly 4000 votes. When I said MGS needed 2500, I meant that's what it needed for me to feel it's completely safe.

It could probably get away with something like 1200, but I'd be nervous about it for a while.
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 9:58:56 PM | message detail
Anyway, I keep mentioning this but only Leon ever responds (and we all know he's about as unbiased as me!).

OoT/RBY/FFVIII/MGS. Who ya got?

---
http://thengamer.com/guru/
red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 9:58:58 PM | message detail
Probably not, but I don't see why it wouldn't get fairly close. Series =/= Games and 1v1s =/= 4-ways.
---
Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 9:59:27 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #037
Yeah, that's still kinda weird.

Anyone take Metroid > Pokemon NOW?


No way. This new batch of voters seem way too young and disrespectful. They deserve a lesson in video game respect (via arm bar).
---
Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 9:59:44 PM | message detail
OoT > FFVIII > MGS > R/B/Y

Yes!
---
http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:00:00 PM | message detail
RBY > FFVIII
---
http://i77.photobucket.com/albums/j69/War13104/CenaJFrog.gif
hey look i'm war and i'm stupid - WVI
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 10:00:10 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #040
Anyway, I keep mentioning this but only Leon ever responds (and we all know he's about as unbiased as me!).

OoT/RBY/FFVIII/MGS. Who ya got?


FFVIII. Ocarina is going to do bad things to Pokemon. Bad, bad things.
---
Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MetricTrout | Posted 5/16/2009 10:00:19 PM | message detail
No. Pokemon probably beats Metroid by a good amount and gets around 25-30% on Zelda.
---
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
ZFS | Posted 5/16/2009 10:00:40 PM | message detail
1) Final Fantasy VII
1) Ocarina of Time
3) Super Mario 64
4) Link to the Past
5) Super Mario Bros. 3
6) Chrono Trigger
7) Super Mario World
8) Final Fantasy X
9) Pokemon RBY
10) Super Smash Bros. Melee


---
a metal slime appears
xp1337 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:00:52 PM | message detail
OoT/RBY/FFVIII/MGS. Who ya got?

OoT > FF8

But I don't like trying to call this until we at least see FF8 tomorrow.
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 10:02:31 PM | message detail
I think Pokemon goes in as the favorite after tomorrow because I'm expecting Ocarina to dismantle that poll. Its 53% in Round 1 is still the strongest performance I've seen thus far.
---
Yoblazer: http://i37.tinypic.com/x1d2s9.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 5/16/2009 10:02:36 PM | message detail
ask me that tomorrow. right now I like RBY in a big way, but I need to see how legit FF8 is.

RBY's set a standard of a game leeching off it. let's see if FF8 can follow.
---
xyzzy
http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg