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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 717

lightsout06 | Posted 5/16/2009 2:12:16 PM | message detail
No i was talking bout LoZ: OoT since mostly everyone is saying it will win the contest
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When you come in 2nd your the 1st loser
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/16/2009 2:14:03 PM | message detail
uhh...Ocarina of Time is a heavy underdog to FFVII.
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/16/2009 2:14:51 PM | message detail
And FF7 looks worried since Mario 64 looks set to really give him a beating.
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Safer Sephiroth 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 2:16:10 PM | message detail
Well I believe OOT has the win in the contest...
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syco_coaster | Posted 5/16/2009 2:16:57 PM | message detail
Can we all just bask in the glory that is this match? Nothing has made me happier this entire contest.
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Ahhhh....
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Current Score: 136
Today's pick: Super Mario 64 > Chrono Trigger
lightsout06 | Posted 5/16/2009 2:20:14 PM | message detail
Well i think FFVII has gotten a little weaker, and FFX has gotten a lot stronger. We will see how OoT does with a SFF'd FFVIII. If it does not destroy that match it will lose to FFX down the road.
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When you come in 2nd your the 1st loser
charmander6000 | Posted 5/16/2009 2:22:47 PM | message detail
Are you calling FFX > OoT > FFVII a possibility?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Chrono Trigger > Super Mario 64 Points: 129/184
lightsout06 | Posted 5/16/2009 2:30:05 PM | message detail
yes thats what i said. You can quote me later.
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When you come in 2nd your the 1st loser
charmander6000 | Posted 5/16/2009 2:41:02 PM | message detail
Do you mean at the same time or throughout the contest?

OoT/RBY/Melee/FFX, FFX > OoT could happen.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Chrono Trigger > Super Mario 64 Points: 129/184
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 2:43:36 PM | message detail
FACT or FICTION: If RBY gets 1st or comes close to getting 1st tonight, it goes to Round 4 at least.

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/16/2009 2:44:41 PM | message detail
Depends how well FFVIII and Starcraft do against OoT.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Chrono Trigger > Super Mario 64 Points: 129/184
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 2:47:07 PM | message detail
FACT. If it can do that with two other Nintendo games (including another Pokemon game) in the poll and against competition like Metal Gear Solid, I think it goes far. Of course, I don't see this happening tonight.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 2:50:13 PM | message detail
FACT or FICTION: If RBY gets 1st or comes close to getting 1st tonight, it goes to Round 4 at least.

Fiction, because FFVIII will still beat it.
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lightsout06 | Posted 5/16/2009 3:11:53 PM | message detail
^^^ thats if FFVIII makes it out of its match
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When you come in 2nd your the 1st loser
red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 3:36:45 PM | message detail
1:00 | 50.22%
2:00 | 51.56%
3:00 | 52.64%
4:00 | 52.33%
5:00 | 51.08%
6:00 | 50.50%
7:00 | 49.08%
8:00 | 48.92%
9:00 | 46.11%
10:00 | 45.74%
11:00 | 45.60%
12:00 | 46.18%
13:00 | 46.81%
14:00 | 46.60%
15:00 | 45.47%
16:00 | 47.00%
17:00 | 46.74%
18:00 | 47.07%

CT improves a little bit with the afternoon vote past 3, but not very much at all. Now that we're moving into the weekend second night vote, it appears to finally be slowing Mario 64's gains.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 3:40:44 PM | message detail
I want to say fact, because if RBY beats MGS with GS and Majora's Mask in the poll, it is a contender for #3. But I'm not sure how the OOT/RBY SFF will go, so FFVIII or Starcraft might still be able to beat it in round 3.
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/16/2009 3:48:35 PM | message detail
Here's a variation of that question that I think is also intriguing: how much more does LoZ:OoT affect R/B/Y than LoZ:MM and G/S already do? We know LoZ:MM is no LoZ:OoT, though it's still a LoZ-game...and G/S should cause some Poke-havoc for R/B/Y as well. How much worse would you expect R/B/Y to do against MGS in R3 than tomorrow?
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/16/2009 3:58:24 PM | message detail
I think RBY does better compared to MGS next round. Ocarina is *the* Nintendo game, of course, but GS has more overlap with RBY than any other game and MM bothers RBY while FFVIII would bother MGS if anything. If GS just gets flat out killed (ala Yoshi's Island today or MM3 in Mario World's match), then maybe not, but I don't expect that to happen.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 3:58:25 PM | message detail
I want to say fact, because if RBY beats MGS with GS and Majora's Mask in the poll, it is a contender for #3.

I'd agree, especially since MGS was still getting consideration as a Top 10 game before half the Mario series exploded. I still expect to see Pokemon closer to Majora's Mask than MGS, though.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/16/2009 4:08:36 PM | message detail
Remember when I said SM64 wouldn't be able to pull a 3000 vote reversal? ...Whoops.
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SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
creativename | Posted 5/16/2009 4:22:43 PM | message detail
Lots of LFF in the next match. Could see something weird like MGS matching both Pokemon games combined.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/16/2009 4:24:57 PM | message detail
From: creativename
Lots of LFF in the next match. Could see something weird like MGS matching both Pokemon games combined.

Hey look, creative's massively underrating Pokémon.

Again.
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That makes a change.
red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 4:26:40 PM | message detail
I'm increasingly thinking that games/characters perform substantially differently between rounds, beyond the ability of fanbase overlaps to explain. Based on SOTN, SM64 today is projected to 60-40 the SM64 of last round. SMW pulled the same kind of magic against FF1/FF4. And we all know about Pikachu's transition from round 2 to round 3 in both 2007 and 2008. We know about bandwagoning, first round underperformances by obvious favorites, and last place factor, but these may prove to be the rule and not the exceptions.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 4:28:18 PM | message detail
This Format is ****ed Up Factor
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 4:31:23 PM | message detail
MGS matching both Pokemon games combined would be worse LFF than FF4/FF1. Possibly, but very unlikely.

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 4:33:23 PM | message detail
I want to agree with you creative, and say that there's no way Pokemon beats MGS tomorrow, but I have a bad feeling about this, like the site is about to decide to bandwagon Pokemon to the finals.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 4:36:04 PM | message detail
If you had asked me two days ago about RBY's chances at first...well, I would've said it had one, but that would've been with my Pokefreak glasses on.

Now, after seeing Goldeneye get 33% on FF7 with 2 other Ninty games in the poll and SM64 clobber CT with YI in the poll, I think it has a legitimately (small) chance.

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 4:44:48 PM | message detail
Also, say what you will about me being a delusional fanboy, but I think the chance of CT and SM64 advancing next round is not exactly zero. There is no better way to start a bandwagon for a game than to put it up against FFVII.
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ZFS | Posted 5/16/2009 4:46:55 PM | message detail
What

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a metal slime appears
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/16/2009 4:47:31 PM | message detail
Bold Prediction: RBY is over 50% for the first minute.

Awww yeah.
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Let's do this.
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 4:47:44 PM | message detail
red sox, I hope you never leave. The stuff I say looks tame compared to your predictions!

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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 4:48:22 PM | message detail
Bold Prediction: No it won't

Seriously, GSC wins the board vote easily.

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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/16/2009 4:49:54 PM | message detail
Are you calling your bold prediction on GSC winning the board vote? Or is that what you truly think?

Either way, very unlikely. RBY will crush GSC worst then what SM64 is doing to SMW2!

(BOLD PREDICTION)
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 4:52:07 PM | message detail
RBY could end up crushing GS, but it's going to be lagging behind in the beginning. MM and MGS have BRACKETS, and this board is a perfect example of the type of voting block that would vote for GS>RBY.

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 4:52:16 PM | message detail
Okay, I'll try to stop the overreactions. But yeah, what I mean is THIS FORMAT SUCKS and absolutely anything can happen.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/16/2009 4:54:37 PM | message detail
of voting block that would vote for GS>RBY.

Vocal minority. The majority of people here believe that RBY is the better game.
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Good Times,
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/16/2009 4:54:56 PM | message detail
From: KamikazePotato
RBY could end up crushing GS, but it's going to be lagging behind in the beginning. MM and MGS have BRACKETS, and this board is a perfect example of the type of voting block that would vote for GS>RBY.

I cannot disagree more. GS will be pulverised from the moment the poll opens.
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Which is sad AND awesome.
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 4:55:41 PM | message detail
If that's what you think.


Just don't start flipping out when RBY isn't dominating from the onset!

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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/16/2009 4:57:01 PM | message detail
On the other hand, the board knows that it needs to vote for RBY instead of GS to give it a chance against MGS. I don't know whether the desire to have RBY win beats out the GS favoritism, but that sort of thing has worked in the past.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/16/2009 4:57:57 PM | message detail
I try not to overreact to poll results (unless it's a FF beating HL2 or something).

But there's no real reason to believe GSC is more liked here because people speak up about it. I mean, if you go by that logic, you would have to believe Majora's Mask, Super Mario World, and Final Fantasy 8 are the most loved games in their series on here, which are not true.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 4:59:14 PM | message detail
BOLTALIC PREDICTION: Metal Gear Solid gets a higher percentage this round than it got last round, a la SMW!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 5:00:04 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=49531649

Let's try this, then.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 5:00:07 PM | message detail
I mean, if you go by that logic, you would have to believe Majora's Mask, Super Mario World, and Final Fantasy 8 are the most loved games in their series on here, which are not true.

More people speak up about FFIX than FFVIII, for the record. Heck, I'd wager FFX is actually Board 8's favorite Final Fantasy at this point.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/16/2009 5:00:18 PM | message detail
From: KamikazePotato
If that's what you think.


Just don't start flipping out when RBY isn't dominating from the onset!


Don't worry, I'll spin whatever I'm given to fina a way to get RBY to at least place next round.
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:D
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 5:01:09 PM | message detail
Nothing can stop the Perfect Storm! Especially not some Pokeymanz!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 5:01:14 PM | message detail
More people speak up about FFIX than FFVIII, for the record

And FFIX has a great board vote while FFVIII has an awful one.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 5:01:40 PM | message detail
Indeed. FFIX and FFX are basically the only FF games that don't have awful board votes.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 5:02:31 PM | message detail
On a side note, someone (was it Harrich?) did a Favorite FF Ranking list that got a ton of entries. FFX easily got 1st.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 5:03:38 PM | message detail
I think tranny did it. I was thinking about that topic when I said that.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 5/16/2009 5:13:35 PM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Favorite_Final_Fantasy

FFVI at #1, but FFX close behind.
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