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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 717

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 10:21:40 AM | message detail

From: RPGuy96 | #147
Well, we've been working on the assumption that Ocarina couldn't do to LttP/Mario 3 what FFVII could do to FFX/FFVIII, and it would lose for that reason...but today might bring that into question. Mario 64 wants to be a top five game today, and it probably wasn't too far off from that mark in 2k4. (Mario games have had a lot of reason to rise in the past five years, but not by absolutely spellbinding margins.) And Ocarina got over 76% on it. It might be the case that Ocarina can bring the SFF hammer down pretty hard, especially when it needs to to win.


It's possible. I said before that Ocarina's best chance lay in the fact that it and LttP (assuming LttP and FFX make it here) can combine for over 50% of the vote. If that happens, it doesn't need as bad of an SFF drumming to contend, although it's still hard to imagine it. FFVII can probably go 80/20 plus with any FF game if it needed to. Picturing Ocarina do that to LttP... yeah.
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Lopen | Posted 5/16/2009 10:23:34 AM | message detail
#1. I feel the 2004 X-Stats underrated SotN
#2. SotN has every reason to drop as well.

Merely coincidence, I'm thinking.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/16/2009 10:25:17 AM | message detail
So Mario has gained 1500 in 4 hours. At this rate.... It may win over 5k

lol
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:26:49 AM | message detail
Semi-seriously: Nintendo fans are much better "organized" and good at winning contests than Square fans are. Did you see how FFVII fans have blundered away respectability in the last 2 contests? If more FFVII fans had just been willing to bury Sephiroth, Cloud would have beaten Snake, the huge Snake bandwagon wouldn't have gotten very far, and Cloud would have taken 2nd in the final. Nintendo fans never allow something like this to happen- when Link doesn't need their support, they support Mario or Samus in droves and make them look really good. When Link does need their support, they abandon them and rally to Link immediately.

Nintendo = Republicans. Square = Democrats.
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BDawg | Posted 5/16/2009 10:28:35 AM | message detail
Yeah and Solid Snake was the second shooter in the grassy knoll.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:29:08 AM | message detail
Well obviously it wasn't Snake.

It was Big Boss.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/16/2009 10:29:37 AM | message detail
when Link doesn't need their support, they support Mario or Samus in droves and make them look really good

Mario/Link/Samus/Crono?
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:30:47 AM | message detail
Nintendo fans were smart enough to realize that Mario and Samus were lost causes!
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:32:42 AM | message detail
And even smarter to realize that they didn't want Mario or Samus dragging Link down in the final!
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
Janus5000 | Posted 5/16/2009 10:47:33 AM | message detail
*wakes up*

Hah. SM64 winning now isn't surprising, though the margin's a bit wider than I would've guessed.

You suck, CT.
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Big Bob | Posted 5/16/2009 10:56:42 AM | message detail
Aaaand with this match, my bracket is buried.

Stupid Chrono Trigger was supposed to make the final match...
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 5/16/2009 10:59:12 AM | message detail
This match is stupid.

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[ FINAL FOUR ] FFVII / SMB3 / LoZ: OoT / MGS
http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=161
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/16/2009 10:59:52 AM | message detail
Sucks it's Saturday. The ASV today would have been a joy to watch.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/16/2009 11:18:53 AM | message detail
All Midcarder Nintendo FPOF!™

Majora's Mask/New Super Mario Brothers
Yoshi's Island/Wii Sports
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jonthomson | Posted 5/16/2009 11:23:27 AM | message detail
wait, chrono trigger is losing? wat? good job i have it getting to last 16 and out
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/16/2009 11:27:59 AM | message detail
hm.. you know, castlevania's 33% does make it look better now.

Which in turn makes Goldeneye look better..
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BGE2 - Today: CT > SM64 - Points: 136 Vote: SM64
HaRRicH | Posted 5/16/2009 11:52:37 AM | message detail
<fanboy>

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSS !!

</fanboy>


I can feel LoZ:OoT crossing its fingers that SM64 makes it to the Championship.....
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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/16/2009 11:54:30 AM | message detail
You know what? I think it's time for us, as a stats topic, to stop all the fighting and arguing for one day and just celebrate this amazing result.

<3 SM64!
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LordOfDabu | Posted 5/16/2009 12:07:21 PM | message detail
The N64 had such a (relatively) small library of games that most gamers who had the system probably had almost all of them. It doesn't surprise me that there's some heavy SFF between 64 titles. It happened in OoT vs Mario 64, 007 vs Kart, Kart vs Fox...

I think something screwy happened in Majora/Banjo/Dark too. I won't be surprised if Majora heavily exceeds expectations with them gone this round.

There's also the fact that in 5 years, 2k4's generation had Mario 3/World as their growing up games, while 2k9's generation has 64. Even if it was weaker than Mario 3 in 2004 it could still be stronger now.
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ZFS | Posted 5/16/2009 12:07:50 PM | message detail
Mario 64 freakz

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/16/2009 12:20:47 PM | message detail
Mario 64 vs. the ASV of FF7 and CT next round will be VERY interesting. I think ti can plain out win it.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/16/2009 12:25:22 PM | message detail
uhhh... what a weird update

ct just cut 35 out of no where
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 12:25:30 PM | message detail
I think ti can plain out win it.

I don't know about that, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it fight like crazy. Despite the 4way format, it seems that polls can sometimes turn into epic 1v1 clashes. The extent to which YI and SotN are getting hammered today show this. Mario 64 vs. Chrono Trigger is the big 1v1 match right now. There'll be another one next round, but I don't think Chrono Trigger will be a part of it. Mario's going to shoot for the sun. He probably won't get there, but I'll be damned if the Nintendo fanbase don't try.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/16/2009 12:28:50 PM | message detail
I meant Mario 64 could win the ASV. I don't expect it to win the match... as in it'll get a higher percentage during the ASV then either FF7 or CT
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/16/2009 12:31:23 PM | message detail
2 straight cuts for CT... maybe its ready for that massive asv comeback ... !
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 12:33:53 PM | message detail
Kids coming home from detention love Chrono Trigger. Tough to support such a game imo.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 12:37:51 PM | message detail
Wow, Super Mario 64 winning despite Yoshi's Island's presence.

Although I've got to say that I still think Chrono Trigger's got a chance next round. We've already seen that OoT and GoldenEye split, so why wouldn't Mario 64 and GoldenEye? There's no doubt GoldenEye holds up better than Yoshi's Island as well.

Think Mario vs. Mega Man X last year. Which round did he do better: With Luigi or with Zelda? Heck, he even did better with Link in the poll than he did with Luigi in the poll. Mario was able to get more SFF on Luigi, while Zelda resisted better because she's from a different series.

Of course, Chrono Trigger's got to hold up to FFVII in the midst of all of this, which I think it can do, but I will give Mario 64 the favorite status. It's not a lock though.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/16/2009 12:39:45 PM | message detail
We've already seen 007 in a poll with FFVII and two Mario games and it got 33%. Just how much LFF do you think was there? I'd be very uneasy about 007 over 35% on FFVII, which is pretty minimal. Certainly a lot less than the FFVII/CT split.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/16/2009 12:40:10 PM | message detail
33% on FFVII, that is, not 33% overall.
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hochiminhX | Posted 5/16/2009 12:40:20 PM | message detail
Square kicked ass in Round 1 but to be frank I've been disappointed with their behavior in Round 2.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/16/2009 12:42:02 PM | message detail
Just a little over 8 hours till we see MGS get embaressed ... !
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SonicRaptor | Posted 5/16/2009 12:42:44 PM | message detail
Of course, Chrono Trigger's got to hold up to FFVII in the midst of all of this, which I think it can do, but I will give Mario 64 the favorite status. It's not a lock though.

I agree, Mario 64 certainly isn't a pushover this contest and at this point I would call it FF7 > Mario 64 based on this poll.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 12:46:03 PM | message detail
We've already seen 007 in a poll with FFVII and two Mario games and it got 33%. Just how much LFF do you think was there?

It's hard to say. Unless FFVII has fallen a lot, GE has risen a lot, or OoT/GE was just a fluke, OoT/GE did have some SFF in it. I don't think there's any way Mario 64 and GoldenEye don't have SOME overlap.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/16/2009 12:50:44 PM | message detail
"Some" overlap isn't sufficient, "some" has to mean "more than the top two RPGs on the site." You're not going to convince me of that, not when Mario 64 is easily beating CT despite another Mario game in the poll.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 12:55:04 PM | message detail
Mario/GE will have a lot of overlap. Like Dabu and others have said, the N64's library is so small that fans probably own all or most of the big games. Mario and GE are #2 and 3 on that list, so there's a definite overlap. Despite this, Chrono Trigger is so disadvantaged. I mean, really, Mario is winning comfortably despite getting overlapped right now. It should be hurt more by Goldeneye, but CT will be hurt a lot more by FFVII than what it's up against here.

I certainly wouldn't call Mario a lock, but at this point, I think it'll finish closer to FFVII than it will to CT. Once Nintendo fans see it going fighting hard for first place in the opening updates, I think GE will get abandoned and buried.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 1:10:47 PM | message detail
I dunno. I think there's a clear distinction between fans who came in before FFVII and those who came in with FFVII and later. For Square games, the fanbase is about as varied as it gets.

Not to say that the LFF won't be stiff, but I could honestly see Mario 64 and GE contending with FFVII/CT in the overlap category. Of course, Mario 64 has the advantage in being the stronger of the two games, while CT doesn't have that advantage.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/16/2009 1:13:34 PM | message detail
I don't think that many people check the results before voting.

One of the reasons Snake was bandwagoned in the finals because he had his close match with Cloud the day before and people who randomly come to the site saw that and made an effort to return to the site the next day when in a normal day they wouldn't have.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Chrono Trigger > Super Mario 64 Points: 129/184
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 1:23:33 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm not sure about the amount of people who check before voting. They may rally other people to vote afterwards, but who knows?

Yesterday's chart:

Time | GoldenEye | SMRPG | FFVII | MK64 | Demographic
EBV | 27.27% | 20.81% | 37.87% | 14.05% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 26.03% | 19.77% | 42.48% | 11.71% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 23.75% | 16.28% | 49.03% | 10.94% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 22.94% | 15.31% | 49.68% | 12.06% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 22.85% | 16.42% | 49.20% | 11.53% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 22.94% | 17.62% | 45.39% | 14.05% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 22.68% | 17.75% | 47.01% | 12.56% | (22:00-24:00)

FFVII's laughable board vote and Power Hour continue, along with its great night, morning, and DSV. Quite a drop with its ASV there though, but it did recover a bit at night. Aside from the strong first hour, GoldenEye is pretty steady throughout the match. Mario RPG also has a strong start, but an awful morning vote. It did a good job with the ASV though. Mario Kart 64 had a strong board vote but finished with an awful Power Hour and night vote. A strong ASV though, by far its best time of the match aside from the board vote itself.

Yesterday's stats:

Final Fantasy VII – 50.00%
GoldenEye 007 – 33.03%
Super Mario RPG – 26.48%
Mario Kart 64 – 20.70%

Upper Half Stats

Final Fantasy VII – 50.00%
GoldenEye 007 – 33.03%
Super Mario RPG (Round 1) – 30.94%
Mario Kart 64 (Round 1) – 29.98%
Super Mario RPG (Round 2) – 26.48%
Resident Evil 2 – 25.81%
Mario Kart 64 (Round 2) – 20.70%
Star Fox 64 – 20.86%
Donkey Kong Country 2 – 13.50%
Suikoden – 11.10%
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lightsout06 | Posted 5/16/2009 1:36:54 PM | message detail
Im rdy for the pokematch to start. RBY > MGS even with the SFF with GSC
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When you come in 2nd your the 1st loser
charmander6000 | Posted 5/16/2009 1:37:37 PM | message detail
GS would have to get less than Yoshi's Island for RBY > MGS to happen.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: Chrono Trigger > Super Mario 64 Points: 129/184
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 1:39:08 PM | message detail
After seeing this, it's possible, I guess. MGS is no Chrono Trigger.

Doubt RBY is a Mario 64 though, but who knows?
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/16/2009 1:44:24 PM | message detail
Except people like GS while they don't give a **** about Yoshi's Island.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: Chrono Trigger > Super Mario 64 Points: 129/184
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 1:45:30 PM | message detail
Plenty of people like Yoshi's Island. It's definitely weaker than G/S though, and by a lot.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/16/2009 1:52:09 PM | message detail
Most of those people aren't true fans though...

Now imagine if SMW was here instead.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: Chrono Trigger > Super Mario 64 Points: 129/184
Draco1214 | Posted 5/16/2009 2:01:14 PM | message detail
I'm seriously hoping MGS overlapped with FFT. Only thing keeping my bracket semi-alive is having MGS in the finals!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/16/2009 2:02:59 PM | message detail
The Perfect Storm will ruin that next round anyway!
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Draco1214 | Posted 5/16/2009 2:04:31 PM | message detail
If it makes it there!

save_me.starcraft
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lightsout06 | Posted 5/16/2009 2:08:53 PM | message detail
I hope GSC does not hurt RBY too much, i would love to see a major upset in round 3. RBY > (the supposed favorite of the contest)
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When you come in 2nd your the 1st loser
PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/16/2009 2:09:09 PM | message detail
Wow, CT is absolutely getting killed by Mario 64.

Goes to show that this contest is full of surprises.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/16/2009 2:09:39 PM | message detail
Wait since when is FFVII in the 98-00 division?
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BGE2 - Today's Match: Chrono Trigger > Super Mario 64 Points: 129/184