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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 717

WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/16/2009 12:43:26 AM | message detail
CT's lead to peak at 619 confirmed.
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hey look i'm war and i'm stupid - WVI
Lopen | Posted 5/16/2009 12:46:47 AM | message detail
Chrono Trigger's lead is rising faster than my portfolio. Through thick and thin, even with the economy as it is, I have prospered, and Chrono Trigger will follow in my footsteps! All of the fans from North Mexico may scream of a peak at 619, say otherwise, but they will be proven wrong.

The strong dominate, while the weak serve only to pad the X-Stats of the strong. Votes... make... votes. Chrono Trigger will buy them and sell them.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 12:48:09 AM | message detail
And now CT is flying. Up 100 over the last 15 minutes, and we're over 40%. 4 AM hits in 15 minutes, so hopefully THIS is the late night vote we're seeing here.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
hochiminhX | Posted 5/16/2009 12:51:04 AM | message detail
A lead of 2500 might not be enough... and I doubt CT builds that high of a lead. Therefore, Chrono Trigger is going to have to spar with Super Mario 64 during he day. Failure to do so and CT will be utterly embarassed... as if it weren't bad enough for it already... I mean Jsus Christ, SM64 is being drained by another Mario game!

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I will bury you.
Sonic_Factor | Posted 5/16/2009 12:53:58 AM | message detail
2500 would be more then enough i think. The highest vote swing was 3k or so wasn't it? that was 1 on 1 though.
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/16/2009 12:58:11 AM | message detail
didnt sandbag swing 2500 on magus?
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/16/2009 1:01:26 AM | message detail
Well, I voted for Chrono Trigger despite not having played it and Super Mario 64 being the first video game I had ever heard of. But, as I said, I will vote for Chrono Trigger over anything not named Ocarina of Time.

MANKIND ILL NEEDS A SAVIOR SUCH AS YOU! Now time for vote total stats.

GoldenEye's vote total was about 62.22% of its vote total last round.
Super Mario RPG's vote total was about 51.51% of its vote total last round.
Final Fantasy VII's vote total was about 79.92% of its vote total last round.
Mario Kart 64's vote total was about 48.73% of its vote total last round.

Final Fantasy VII did an expectedly good job at keeping its votes from last round. GoldenEye lost a good portion probably due to Mario Kart 64 (and possibly Final Fantasy VII if Same Year SFF exists). The Mario games did expectedly bad. Things aren't looking good for Super Mario 64 in round 3.
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/16/2009 1:02:40 AM | message detail
Things aren't looking good for Super Mario 64 in round 3.

Uhh...someone needs to check the current poll.
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hey look i'm war and i'm stupid - WVI
red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 1:05:40 AM | message detail
Sandbag is SSB, and Magus is.....Magus. But anyway, if you're down by 2500 in the morning, you're down in percentage a lot more than if you're down 2500 before the ASV. With the weekend day vote, the most common scenarios are that the game that's ahead continues increasing, and that the other game comes back and overruns it by thousands of votes. The in-between cases are fairly rare. And CT is not getting anywhere near 2500 by morning.

1:00 | 50.22%
2:00 | 51.56%
3:00 | 52.64%
4:00 | 52.33%

CT hanging in there. The last half hour, it got 54.37%, which mayhaps should give me a bit of hope.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 1:21:49 AM | message detail
Twenty minute stalls are not what CT wants. I don't think this thing will reach 1000.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
BOOMSHAKALAKA1 | Posted 5/16/2009 1:28:49 AM | message detail
omg, CT bleeding % now.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/16/2009 1:38:44 AM | message detail
Tomorrow's match prediction:

Well, this match only has one game that deserves to win the contest, but Metal Gear Solid was very revolutionary at the time of its release and Snake's Alaska mission is still fun today despite loads of sequels. At the same time we have Pokemon Red/Blue, the addictive handheld masterpiece, Majora's Mask, an underrated game, and Pokemon Gold/Silver, aka Pokemon with color. Metal Gear Solid easily wins with STF. The debate is then between our three Nintendo titles. Let's investigate some theories.

Same Year SFF: Pokemon RBY gets hit with the SFF by Metal Gear Solid, but Pokemon GS and Majora's Mask kill each other all the same. Metal Gear Solid > RBY

Pokemon LFF: RBY beat MM by a lot last round, but MM won't lose a lot of votes since it was being hindered by Banjo-Kazooie and Perfect Dark last time, and the two Pokemon games will kill each other via LFF. MGS > MM

Triple Nintendo SFF: RBY > MM > GSC within the Nintendo fanbase. MGS > RBY

Prediction: Metal Gear Solid > Pokemon Red/Blue
Bracket: Metal Gear Solid > Final Fantasy Tactics (oops)
Favorites: Metal Gear Solid > Pokemon Red/Blue
Favorites Bracket: Metal Gear Solid > Pokemon Red/Blue
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 5/16/2009 1:47:03 AM | message detail
Let's give this another try. FFVII trends....ACTIVATE!

Oh god deja vu
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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
HaRRicH | Posted 5/16/2009 2:48:17 AM | message detail
So, since SMB showed LoZ what's up, SMB3's got a record and won its R2 match with ease (regardless of the mixed opinions), SMW increased percentage from R1, and SM64 is on the verge of a huge upset despite SMW2:YI...would you give SMG a second shot? If not yet, how about if the Pokemon games collectively impress tomorrow? That would at least further ensure Pokemon games are stronger than ever here, helping to justify SMG's R1-match.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/16/2009 2:50:45 AM | message detail
This is the Europe vote. I'm surprised its not letting Mario gain consistantly right now.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/16/2009 2:52:32 AM | message detail
I'd be willing to give SMG another chance, but it just isn't going to get one, I don't think. Not with Brawl there. However, I think I'm generally in favor of giving second chances. I maintained a fairly high opinion of FF6 after the Round 1 debacle, after all.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
BOOMSHAKALAKA1 | Posted 5/16/2009 2:52:48 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/16/2009 3:16:13 AM | message detail
I'm surprised its not letting Mario gain consistantly right now.

That is surprising. CT isn't collapsing like I thought it would.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 3:31:23 AM | message detail
I still trust Mario's day vote to make up what looks like a max lead of maybe 800.
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Yoblazer: http://i42.tinypic.com/avk9ie.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Gaddswell | Posted 5/16/2009 3:32:54 AM | message detail
Well, that's 3 40% updates and cuts for Mario.

Looks like that 619 may not be that far off after all.
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Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 3:51:45 AM | message detail
In our last two Saturday matches, Tetris and MGS3 both started falling in percentage about 7.5 hours into the poll, or 45 minutes from now. If Mario starts making a noticeable move at around that time, I'd expect a pretty comfortable win.
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Yoblazer: http://i42.tinypic.com/avk9ie.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/16/2009 3:55:40 AM | message detail
CT bombs another contest X_X
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/16/2009 4:01:37 AM | message detail
As for our glorious top ten rankings...

If Mario 64 beats CT comfortably despite another Mario platformer in the poll, I think that slingshots it right in the top five, at least for now. Chrono Trigger isn't some untested wildcard, and Mario has no reason to have a flukey overperformance here - this is raw power.

FFVII
OoT
LttP
SMB3
Mario 64

It doesn't seem unreasonable to me, especially since Melee and FFX haven't done anything of this magnitude.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 5/16/2009 4:12:15 AM | message detail
there's the beginning of your morning vote. I'd expect this lead to be gone by 10.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg
transience | Posted 5/16/2009 4:12:58 AM | message detail
and it could be gone by 9.
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xyzzy
http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/16/2009 4:13:05 AM | message detail
Is it just me or would E.V.O.: The Search for Eden have worked well as a joke game?

Anyways, Super Mario 64 is timeless, but I voted for Chrono Trigger due to all the time-travelling stuff, and I dig time travel (so does this site apparently, I mean, OoT, CT, LttP, what else?).

As for my opinions on the new match pics, tomorrow's doesn't really look so good. We've got two things that say "Pokemon," then a generic codec conversation (with Naomi?) for MGS. Majora's Mask actually has Majora's Mask in the picture it seems; is that from the game's opening cutscene? It seems that FFVIII also gets its pic from its opening cutscene, and FFIX gets its pic from a cutscene too it seems (although it could be Vivi's limit break or something like that). And why does Vivi have to be emphasized so much? Ocarina of Time's pic also comes from a cutscene it seems, and I love it (it's from the ending cutscne, right? though it's been a while since I first finished the game). StarCraft's looks all jumbled up, though I'm glad to see that its match pic comes from the gameplay instead of one of its cutscenes. Those are awesome FMVs, but SC just stands out that way.

As for whether Super Mario Galaxy has another chance, it's definetely a no-no. Now, most Nintendo fans prefer Mario Galaxy over Brawl, but from my knowledge most Nintendo fans also prefer Wind Waker over SSBM and we saw how well that worked out. It's actually sad to see that happen to SMG, seeing as its the only major Nintendo game from recent times that actually innovates (well, Metroid Prime also innovates), but it seems that, among recent gamers on this site, Super Mario has completely fallen off the map, while Legend of Zelda, Pokemon, and Smash are quite big (and that could explain why Smash wasn't SFFd much by Mario in the series contest). BTW Super Mario Galaxy and Tetris are the only two games that I'd say deserve to win the contest, but at the same time I don't really care if they lose to LittleBigPlanet, which is saying something).

Is it just me, or do Pokemon and Smash NOT share the usual Nintendo fanbase due to their recency?
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/16/2009 4:14:37 AM | message detail
WHAT IS A MAN?

*continuing Richter's conversation with Dracula from Symphony of the Night, which is in the current match pic*
Denzokuken | Posted 5/16/2009 4:40:21 AM | message detail
Now these are some hefty cuts...gg Chrono.
Gaddswell | Posted 5/16/2009 4:40:25 AM | message detail
Is that a 48 vote cut I see?
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Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/16/2009 4:43:51 AM | message detail
That massive cut was the result of CT collapsing there with a 29.87% update (its worst update of the match). And Mario got a 45.97% update at the same time.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
xp1337 | Posted 5/16/2009 4:53:42 AM | message detail
Well, in the last hour, SM64 took 215 off of CT's lead.

...This could get pretty ugly.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/16/2009 5:20:30 AM | message detail
A MISERABLE LITTLE PILE OF SECRETS.

I love to see all this discussion about Mario 64's possibilities of being a top 10 game, as it is one of the few games in the tourney which I have beaten. Nevertheless, this is more likely Chrono Trigger dropping in the last few years moreso than Mario 64 increasing. We saw Final Fantasy VI disappointing, and with Chrono Trigger it was hard to tell since the competition was so weak.

It's completely possible that CT is no longer a member of the Super Six, and could lose to SSBM/B or FFX or something of the sort. CT did do very well with vote totals in the first round, however, despite what was possibly a huge SFF-fest.

This also shows that SM64 was horribly shafted in the original games contest. It's great to see such an injustice righted.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/16/2009 5:21:20 AM | message detail
And here's another example why this format sucks. Great potential upset here, but both games will advance and Goldeneye/Mario will have a lot more leeching going on than FF7/CT. Bah.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/16/2009 5:24:58 AM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #083
Goldeneye/Mario will have a lot more leeching going on than FF7/CT. Bah.


I disagree. Mario is already going to win while already being slightly leeched in this match so even if that were the case Mario 64 would still have a shot
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Mannequin Depressive | Posted 5/16/2009 5:28:42 AM | message detail
last update saw CT 333 ahead and this last update now has it 305 ahead

cut away, mario, cut away <3
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...-_-... Bera:12x Ice/Lit Mage
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/16/2009 5:30:35 AM | message detail
Final Fantasy VII won't SFF Chrono Trigger much, and GoldenEye will split with Mario 64 more due to both of them being on the same console.

Plus, (this is admittedly dumb) SM64 has some STF going on here since it is the only 3d game. I still expect Final Fantasy VII > Chrono Trigger in round 3. BTW Chrono Trigger is my favorite to win the division.
ZFS | Posted 5/16/2009 5:34:41 AM | message detail
Looks like Mario's going to pull this one out. Tough to say how much of this is CT and how much of it is Mario 64, but it looks like a top 10 game for sure. Shame CT's likely going to end up going out so early -- one of the worst things about this bracket.

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a metal slime appears
Mannequin Depressive | Posted 5/16/2009 5:48:36 AM | message detail
260
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...-_-... Bera:12x Ice/Lit Mage
greatone10 | Posted 5/16/2009 5:56:48 AM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 5/16/2009 5:24:58 AM | #084
I disagree. Mario is already going to win while already being slightly leeched in this match so even if that were the case Mario 64 would still have a shot


The problem is that Goldeneye will probably hold up a lot better than Yoshi's Island is doing, thus giving SM64 less of the Nintendo pie to work with.

Mario still has a great shot next round. Who knows how FFVII will affect Chrono in a four way.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
Mannequin Depressive | Posted 5/16/2009 6:04:10 AM | message detail
152 :) closing in
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Denzokuken | Posted 5/16/2009 6:08:52 AM | message detail
Wow these cuts are getting huge...lead under 100 now. So how much does Mario 64 win by? 3000+ perhaps?
Mannequin Depressive | Posted 5/16/2009 6:09:41 AM | message detail
wow, that was a 58 vote cut
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/16/2009 6:12:10 AM | message detail
Well it'll probably slow down a bit at noon but I doubt CT will ever make any cuts after this except for maybe in the last 2 hours
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Mannequin Depressive | Posted 5/16/2009 6:19:21 AM | message detail
94 --> 92 --> 47
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...-_-... Bera:12x Ice/Lit Mage
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/16/2009 6:21:51 AM | message detail
Wow, over 200 votes cut in the last 30 minutes.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/16/2009 6:26:18 AM | message detail
SM64 is gonna massacre CT
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 6:27:09 AM | message detail
Dire Dire Docks>>>Battle with Magus

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/16/2009 6:27:46 AM | message detail
Wow, what a result. I'll take some consolation in both games getting 72% on SOTN.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/16/2009 6:29:14 AM | message detail
Yeah, this can hardly be CT weakness. SotN is getting tripled, and Yoshi's Island...poor Yoshi's Island.

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/16/2009 6:34:54 AM | message detail
I figured Mario 64 would be a beast (rofl @ 2004 stats), but stronger than CT is insane. This effectively puts Mario 64 higher than Mario 3.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid