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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 716

MetricTrout | Posted 5/15/2009 9:54:58 PM | message detail
Remember, SM64DS sold 7.5 million. That is more than FFX or SSBM.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/15/2009 9:55:34 PM | message detail
oh god

Come on Mario, take the lead at the end of the Power Hour!
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hey look i'm war and i'm stupid - WVI
charmander6000 | Posted 5/15/2009 9:55:40 PM | message detail
SM64 is going for another round.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Chrono Trigger > Super Mario 64 Points: 129/184
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/15/2009 9:55:48 PM | message detail

From: ChronicBoom | #346
I'd be pretty stunned if galaxy could take 64. no one cares about purchased pro-reviews


I'd be pretty stunned if Galaxy broke 10% directly on SM64 and 20% indirectly
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Meeks54 | Posted 5/15/2009 9:55:52 PM | message detail

From: PegasusLover123 | #336
Well it is true that it was slaughtered in the past. Times change and so far its proven that we can't rely completely on those 2004 stats to predict the outcome 5 years later.

Look at TOS for example, people had it pegged for round 1 elimination and look what happened, TOS ousted God of War and GTASA, both of which were expected to crush TOS...

Well i doubt this possibly, i suspect that maybe theres the outside factor of the fact any Wii owner could download this game, so maybe its a game i should spend my next Wii points card on.




Look, I am all for blowing up the 2004 stats, I told everyone before this thing even started they would be worthless (LOL Starcraft, LOL underestimating Pokemon, LOL Soul Calibur, and LOLOLOL Region 128) and they very much are worthless. That said, Ocarina of Time tripled Super Mario 64, and we have had nothing in the character contests the last 5 years that would make it seem like Mario is ready to stand to Link. You don't make up a tripling like that, OoT is just the much more popular game.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
ChronicBoom | Posted 5/15/2009 9:55:55 PM | message detail
my round 3 is looking so sexy with the exception of re4

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He who shall not be named.
XxSoulxX | Posted 5/15/2009 9:55:59 PM | message detail
It's common sense that 64 is stronger than Galaxy. Galaxy just didn't have any impact on people.

Exactly. This is why the top 3 Mario games are set in stone. SMB3 is the most loved Mario game, and had the most hype behind it and all of that stuff. SMB revived gaming. SM64 introduced everyone to 3D gaming. Galaxy, at its best, is comparable to 64, but strength wise will be nowhere near it. SMW, while being an awesome SNES game, doesn't really have anything going for it other then that. The rest don't really matter.
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ZFS | Posted 5/15/2009 9:56:14 PM | message detail
Since when has fake sequels done better then the original?

SMG does things that have more similarities to the old school games but in 3D, which is a big reason why I like it the most. It does almost everything better than Mario 64 across the board -- though in terms of contest strength, it's kind of a no brainer.

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deadeyedllv | Posted 5/15/2009 9:56:33 PM | message detail
Mario cut. I'm pretty sure Mario is gonna take this. If not this round, definitely next round (second of course) with no Yoshi's Island to leech.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/15/2009 9:57:05 PM | message detail
Mario 64 is obviously doing this in honor of Punch-Out!! coming out soon. Everytime you think Chrono Trigger is going to pull away, Mario 64 hits with a (120) star punch! What do you say, Doc?

"Mario 64, platformin' on da N sixty-fo'!"
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 9:58:19 PM | message detail
So... lets say CT gets 2500 over night.

Is it safe?
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/15/2009 9:58:24 PM | message detail
Come on Mario, take the lead at the end of the Power Hour!

It needs at least a 32 vote cut, something that is very unlikely to happen.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 9:58:37 PM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #362
Come on Mario, take the lead at the end of the Power Hour!

It needs at least a 32 vote cut, something that is very unlikely to happen.


Ty John Madden
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ChronicBoom | Posted 5/15/2009 9:58:39 PM | message detail
no
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He who shall not be named.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/15/2009 9:59:04 PM | message detail
Mario definitely takes this this round, although next round will be interesting.

Goldeneye will overlap more than Mario World and won't get pounded into the ground as bad. Next round will be all about how good Chrono Trigger does against FF7.
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ZFS | Posted 5/15/2009 9:59:16 PM | message detail
CT would have this locked up if it got a 2500 vote lead, but it's not going to go anywhere near that high.

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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/15/2009 9:59:34 PM | message detail
Oh hey, looks like Chrono Trigger's gonna be lucky to break 40%!
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LordOfDabu | Posted 5/15/2009 9:59:50 PM | message detail
Galaxy may be a better overall game than 64, but it didn't have the "Oh wow" factor that 64 had. Playing that game during its release was something else. I think the only 3D action game I played before it was Pandemonium!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 10:00:17 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #366
CT would have this locked up if it got a 2500 vote lead, but it's not going to go anywhere near that high.


It should decimate Mario at night, and if its europe vote holds up like last round, shouldn't falter too much there
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xp1337 | Posted 5/15/2009 10:00:31 PM | message detail
(LOL Starcraft, LOL underestimating Pokemon, LOL Soul Calibur, and LOLOLOL Region 128)

These are only strikes against the Sp2k4 X-Stats if you applied them literally. Common sense dictated that all those objections were there, especially because Starcraft and the 128 Division are more or less repeating the same problem given that Starcraft is responsible for the placement of half of that division.

The 2k4 X-Stats are a mess and generally to be avoided for a host of other reasons, but these were common sense issues that were easily resolvable by a few moments of thought.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 10:01:05 PM | message detail
btw turtle, how much longer do you need that ariel sig for
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/15/2009 10:02:25 PM | message detail
The 2004 numbers should be avoided simply because entries have changed drastically in strength since then.
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/15/2009 10:02:36 PM | message detail
Imagine how tense this match would be if only the one in first place would advance.....

Crono would be sweating bullets....
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
red sox 777 | Posted 5/15/2009 10:02:50 PM | message detail
2500 should be safe. Still really hard to tell how this goes. CT can either show us the balanced trends it got last round, or it can revert to its 2006-2008 bottom of the barrel day vote.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/15/2009 10:03:37 PM | message detail
The 2k4 stats should be avoided because we're dealing with substantially more votes and have had a huge site demographic swing since then more than any other reason.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
creativename | Posted 5/15/2009 10:04:00 PM | message detail
CT would have this locked up if it got a 2500 vote lead, but it's not going to go anywhere near that high.

Yup.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/15/2009 10:07:14 PM | message detail
The 2k4 stats should be avoided because we're dealing with substantially more votes and have had a huge site demographic swing since then more than any other reason.

It's funny, I bring this up all the time (anything before 2006 is useless) and I get completely ignored. Why does it always take a huge "upset" before people finally decide to stop using outdated data?
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xp1337 | Posted 5/15/2009 10:07:26 PM | message detail
So, what lead does CT need to reach to be considered safe?

I'd think at 1500, it would be fine. Maybe even 1000.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
MegatokyoEd | Posted 5/15/2009 10:09:26 PM | message detail
Let's just hope this match isn't close with 30 mins to go. Otherwise, time for more Chrono shenanigans!
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/15/2009 10:10:16 PM | message detail
Considering it's Mario, if Trigger's lead peaks at 1000 it could lose by 2000+.
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creativename | Posted 5/15/2009 10:10:37 PM | message detail
Let's just hope this match isn't close with 30 mins to go. Otherwise, time for more Chrono shenanigans!

Mario's got the better track record against Crono there.
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__hiei__ | Posted 5/15/2009 10:10:52 PM | message detail
Let's just hope this match isn't close with 30 mins to go. Otherwise, time for more Chrono shenanigans!

Mario does it more oftenly.
PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/15/2009 10:11:17 PM | message detail
If it's this close already, i don't think even a final hour rally would save CT in this case....
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/15/2009 10:11:34 PM | message detail
Oh wow, Trigger might not even get that lead up to four digits unless it wakes up sometime soon, since Mario's not showing signs of dying yet.
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hey look i'm war and i'm stupid - WVI
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 10:11:44 PM | message detail
No CjayC for Mario to fall back on
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 10:12:06 PM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #384
Oh wow, Trigger might not even get that lead up to four digits unless it wakes up sometime soon, since Mario's not showing signs of dying yet.


Power hour lasts about an extra half an hour on weekends. This isn't surprising.
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Meeks54 | Posted 5/15/2009 10:12:49 PM | message detail

From: MegatokyoEd | #379
Let's just hope this match isn't close with 30 mins to go. Otherwise, time for more Chrono shenanigans!




Yeah, not like Mario has had to cheat to beat Crono before. Nope, that never happened.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/15/2009 10:12:49 PM | message detail
This probably isn't going to be close. I'm not seeing Trigger being able to build any kind of significant lead here.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/15/2009 10:13:44 PM | message detail
Yeah, CT's not going against Vincent or Axel or Master Chief here...the phrase "IT'S FREAKING MARIO" comes to mind.

And I don't think this is going to end particularly close. CT traditionally only has a few good hours to shine and it just wasted one of them.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 10:14:04 PM | message detail
mario does need to start dying soon and CT neesd to get its ass in gear. We need constant 30 vote gains
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 10:14:25 PM | message detail

From: RPGuy96 | #389
Yeah, CT's not going against Vincent or Axel or Master Chief here...the phrase "IT'S FREAKING MARIO" comes to mind.

And I don't think this is going to end particularly close. CT traditionally only has a few good hours to shine and it just wasted one of them.


The power hour is Marios time too.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/15/2009 10:15:05 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #371
btw turtle, how much longer do you need that ariel sig for


Until that CoD4 match, when either I get it back, or hell freezes over and Galaxy manages to beat Brawl in which case Harrich gets it.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/15/2009 10:15:06 PM | message detail
Considering it's Mario, if Trigger's lead peaks at 1000 it could lose by 2000+.

Old CT, yes. Lately though, CT hasn't seemed quite as bad with the day vote.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/15/2009 10:16:21 PM | message detail
So yesterday was the first full point match I've had since CoD/Galaxy
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/15/2009 10:16:41 PM | message detail
If you told me before this match that I'd be disappointed in Mario 64 for losing a 1:15 update to Trigger by a measly 12 votes, I'd have called you crazy.
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/15/2009 10:16:45 PM | message detail
CT's trying to pull away there, let's just hope he can widen the gap far enough so Mario can't Longjump it.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 10:17:23 PM | message detail
Mario is starting to fall. CT needs to capitalize though ... !
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/15/2009 10:17:27 PM | message detail

From: xp1337 | #393
Considering it's Mario, if Trigger's lead peaks at 1000 it could lose by 2000+.

Old CT, yes. Lately though, CT hasn't seemed quite as bad with the day vote.


We have 1 match to go by, and that match involved Earthbound, the weakest Mario game in the bracket and a game I've never even heard of.

CT is going to get buried when the sun comes up.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/15/2009 10:18:29 PM | message detail
Oh, no doubt CT loses the day vote, but a 3000+ vote swing? I'm not buying that. I'm thinking 2000 at maximum.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/15/2009 10:20:11 PM | message detail
It's not gonna need a 3000 vote swing. At this rate, CT's gonna be lucky to build a 300 vote lead.
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