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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 716

charmander6000 | Posted 5/15/2009 6:12:07 PM | message detail
And as far as RBY and GS being the 'same game'...GS sold about half as much, came out when anti-Pokemon hype was in full swing, and lost to Xenogears back when this site still disliked Pokemon. There are a huge number of people who played RBY but not GS. RBY and GS share more overlap than FFVIII and FFIX, but RBY is gonna SFF GS way harder than FFVIII could ever hope to SFF FFIX.

1. Pokehate didn't start until half way through its lifetime.
2. You can't use Xenogears against it when it 53/47 MGS just three weeks ago.
3. I don't believe that FFIX/FFVIII will have anywhere close to the amount of overlap GS/RBY has so even if RBY wins by more it may not be much of a difference.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/15/2009 6:13:18 PM | message detail
well, Majora has a bigger deficit to make up, but I'd argue that the Pokemon overlap is greater than the Final Fantasy overlap. I'd put both as being pretty small but I wouldn't be surprised in the least if either happened.

Well, how I see it is:

Majora's Mask starts off further behind. There's also the overlap argument. Without trying to restart the MM/RBY SFF arguments, I think the argument is at least there, even if the extent of the overlap is debated, either way, this seems like it can only hurt MM. In its favor is the possibility that the other N64 games were hurting it in Round 1, and so it's stronger than it looked. The fact that RBY and GSC should have more overlap is a double-edged sword. It could mean they split evenly, but I have a feeling the odds are greater that RBY uses this to its advantage and buries GSC.

Starcraft has less to make up, and is without question independent. FF9 being more distinct should mean it can hold up better, even if it also means it may be harder for it to seriously split FF8. Also, as a bit of an intangible, OoT will be present and can make the other 3 work with less votes, which should favor Starcraft.

Majora's Mask beating RBY would surprise me. Starcraft beating FF8 wouldn't, but I still don't expect it to happen.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/15/2009 6:13:25 PM | message detail
I'm not sure how many people exist who love Diamond/Pearl and wouldn't vote for Red/Blue, but I imagine them to be a strange and tiny minority.

I assume there's a large group that bought DPP because they didn't buy it when the hate was in full swing.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/15/2009 6:13:38 PM | message detail
1. Pokehate didn't start until half way through its lifetime.

I distinctly remember as a kid a lot of people jumping off the Pokemon wagon when GS came out.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=319
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=320

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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/15/2009 6:14:38 PM | message detail
And really, this entire argument hinges on GS and RBY only overlapping with themselves and not MM, which is ludicrous.

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/15/2009 6:14:58 PM | message detail
Majora's Mask beating RBY would surprise me. Starcraft beating FF8 wouldn't, but I still don't expect it to happen.

Either happening would surprise me, though both have a chance.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/15/2009 6:15:50 PM | message detail
And really, this entire argument hinges on GS and RBY only overlapping with themselves and not MM, which is ludicrous.

Which is why I see MM as significantly more unlikely [than Starcraft]. As I said, even if the extent is debated, the overlap argument is there and that can't be good for MM.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/15/2009 6:16:03 PM | message detail
And really, this entire argument hinges on GS and RBY only overlapping with themselves and not MM, which is ludicrous.

I'm glad people now believe this because we were a minority a few weeks ago.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/15/2009 6:17:41 PM | message detail
And really, this entire argument hinges on GS and RBY only overlapping with themselves and not MM, which is ludicrous.

It should be insane overlap, though. For MM to get hurt, a gamer's preference would have to be

GSC > MM > RBY

I imagine that's very rare.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/15/2009 6:17:48 PM | message detail
No one's ever said RBY didn't overlap with MM. We said that it didn't flat-out SFF MM, which is true.

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/15/2009 6:19:42 PM | message detail
No one's ever said RBY didn't overlap with MM. We said that it didn't flat-out SFF MM, which is true.

Again there's no proof that it didn't so why can't a Nintendo series SFF another one?

It won't be as bad as if RBY was SM64, but the damage was still done.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/15/2009 6:21:30 PM | message detail
And GS' only chance of standing up to RBY lies in the people who play Pokemon a lot and consider GSC a superior sequel. While there should be a decent amount of them...

My Games:
Red: 592
Yellow: 611
Blue: 617

Gold: 505
Silver: 494
Crystal: 419


My Games for games this old are only going to show many people really care about them enough to track them down and add them. This is the voting block in which GSC should thrive...and it still loses.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/15/2009 6:22:34 PM | message detail
Again there's no proof that it didn't so why can't a Nintendo series SFF another one?

It won't be as bad as if RBY was SM64, but the damage was still done.


1. If there was SFF, I doubt it was worth anything more than 1 or 2%.
2. If Majora's Mask is susceptible to Pokemon SFF...well, can't say I like it's chances with two of em' in the match.

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/15/2009 6:23:35 PM | message detail
And GS' only chance of standing up to RBY lies in the people who play Pokemon a lot and consider GSC a superior sequel. While there should be a decent amount of them...

By hardcore Pokemon GS was the superior sequel though they may vote RBY because of memories...
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/15/2009 6:24:39 PM | message detail
I think one of the reasons people love G/S so much is because of the R/B/Y references >_>
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/15/2009 6:25:44 PM | message detail
1. If there was SFF, I doubt it was worth anything more than 1 or 2%.

Why? Is Zelda so powerful that it can't be SFF by a stronger Nintendo game. Also do you think Perfect Dark/Banjo-Kazooie hurt it more than RBY?

2. If Majora's Mask is susceptible to Pokemon SFF...well, can't say I like it's chances with two of em' in the match.

I think MM is safe this round since I don't see many going GS > MM > RBY.
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/15/2009 6:26:15 PM | message detail
KP, you should probably mention G/S/C having higher scores pretty much across the board than R/B/Y if you're using that feature already.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/15/2009 6:28:22 PM | message detail
My own personal problem with accepting the idea that there is overlap (which will doom MM) but no SFF is that it doesn't make much sense to me.

What value can there be in there being overlap unless one game is going to disproportionately win that overlap? If there is to be no disproportionate victory on that overlap, then why should it even be considered a problem for MM?

Personally, I don't think any potential SFF between RBY and GSC was much, but to me, that means that overlap in the Round 2 match can't mean much at all either.

Though, I fully admit I may be overlooking something here.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/15/2009 6:28:38 PM | message detail
In fact, let's look at a sample source we've looked at before: LueLinks. These guys are absolutely nutty about Pokemon. A topic discussing the current G/S remake announcement got several thousand posts in less than a week.


Since they've been out awhile, got Pokemon Fire Red and Leaf Green?
Yes, Both of them. 4.78%
72
Yes, one of them. 17.78%
268
No, but I will soon. 5.51%
83
No, I don't have the money. 23.69%
357
Pokemon sucks! 48.24%
727
TOTAL VOTES 1507


Which generation of Pokemon games do you like the best?
First (Red/Blue/Yellow/Stadium). 58.25%
1190
Second (Gold/Silver/Crystal/Stadium 2). 14.54%
297
Third (Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald/FireRed/LeafGreen/Coloseum). 5.09%
104
I don't care, they're all good. 10.52%
215
I don't like Pokemon games. 6.90%
141
I've never played a Pokemon game. 4.70%
96
TOTAL VOTES 2040


Starter Pokemon (Original 151)?
Bulbasaur 21.78%
562
Squirtle 29.88%
771
Charmander 39.65%
1023
Don't care 8.68%
224
TOTAL VOTES 2580


So...apparently 48% of the site thinks Pokemon sucks. But 58% of them voted RBY the best generation, and only 9% of them didn't care enough not to vote for their favorite RBY starter. This really points to RBY winning the hardcore crowd while also dominating the casual crowd.

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transients | Posted 5/15/2009 6:29:44 PM | message detail
I think any argument about 'pokehate' needs to be in the present, not something rooted in 2000 or 2004. as was mentioned, it just went 53/47 with Metal Gear Solid, so the Xenogears match doesn't matter unless you think it beats Metal Gear Solid handily.

from where I sit, G/S is fairly similar to RBY as far as nostalgia and likability goes. people have grown to really talk up G/S. it's not much newer than RBY. it has nostalgia points, just not for being fresh. there are all sorts of people who talk up G/S as a happy medium between RBY's nostalgia and the later games' depth.

I think RBY vs. G/S is about a doubling, maybe a 70/30. I think FF8/FF9 is more like 60/40.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/15/2009 6:33:25 PM | message detail
Oh yeah, Pokehate doesn't matter nearly as much as it used to, but it doesn't change the fact that GSC was released during it, which really hurts its playrate.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 6:34:55 PM | message detail
we're still arguing about pokemon? lets argue about something that matters

like how tomorrow will be ct > sotn
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xp1337 | Posted 5/15/2009 6:35:24 PM | message detail
like how tomorrow will be ct > sotn

The Plan!
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/15/2009 6:37:06 PM | message detail
Playrate? What are you talking about? Red/Blue sold 20 million copies, Gold/Silver sold 14.5 million. There is a slight drop, but both games sold well enough for playrate not to matter.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/15/2009 6:37:44 PM | message detail
Ah, Trout.

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MetricTrout | Posted 5/15/2009 6:37:46 PM | message detail
More like SM64 > CT.
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/15/2009 6:41:10 PM | message detail
Keep in mind that every Pokemon generation sold 5 million more than OoT or FF7. When you are getting into the that range, playrate is a non-issue.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/15/2009 7:01:16 PM | message detail
More like SM64 > CT.

Using FFVII, GE and SotN today CT wins 52/48. Maybe next round.

>_>
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > GoldenEye 007 Points: 121/176
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 7:05:06 PM | message detail
Bold Prediction

Sotn will take a lead over Mario 64 at night before being slaughtered at day
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/15/2009 7:09:22 PM | message detail
Bold Prediction

Sotn will take a lead over Mario 64 at night before being slaughtered at day


Man, that is bold looking at the previous round SMW2 would have avoid a tripling at the hands of SM64 and all of SMW2's vote would have gone to SM64.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > GoldenEye 007 Points: 121/176
syco_coaster | Posted 5/15/2009 7:12:40 PM | message detail
That is one killer awesome Mario 64 pic.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 7:25:36 PM | message detail
What pic would hurt more

Ocarina of Time pic with Navi

vs.

Final Fantasy 7 pic with Cait Sith
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/15/2009 7:37:30 PM | message detail
SOTN isn't getting close to Mario 64. Did you guys forget it got just about doubled last round? That's a bigger deficit than even Majora's Mask has to make up!
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/15/2009 7:37:32 PM | message detail
This deserves reposting in honor of the match pic:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vrze-nKw9zQ
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 7:42:56 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #083
SOTN isn't getting close to Mario 64. Did you guys forget it got just about doubled last round? That's a bigger deficit than even Majora's Mask has to make up!


did you also forget ryu nearly doubled riku in 2007
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/15/2009 7:46:31 PM | message detail
SotN is doomed. SM64 already dealt with a weak Nintendo game last round, and SotN still got doubled. You're just replacing one Nintendo lamb with another. Yoshi's Island may overlap more, but it should also be driven further into the dirt. I don't expect the Mario 64/Castlevania split to be much different than last time.
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/15/2009 7:48:09 PM | message detail
Yeah, and C;SotN was destroyed last round despite SM64 sharing the poll with KSS. SMW2:YI isn't going to let C:SotN close to SM64...how much worse can SMW2:YI hurt SM64 than KSS anyway?
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/15/2009 7:49:03 PM | message detail
The difference is: Yoshi's Island is going to get driven into the ground. Unless you're saying Chrono Trigger is going to SFF SM64, in which case, more power to CT is always a good thing!
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creativename | Posted 5/15/2009 7:49:48 PM | message detail
Haha Gato. Awesome.

Inferno Vivi not so good for FF8. At least there's no Rinoa.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 7:50:02 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #088
Unless you're saying Chrono Trigger is going to SFF SM64, in which case, more power to CT is always a good thing!


aww yeah now we're on the same page
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/15/2009 8:27:13 PM | message detail
Match XL: Super Mario 64 vs. Castlevania: SotN vs. Chrono Trigger vs. SMW2: Yoshi’s Island

Last Round:

Super Mario 64 – 45.44%
Castlevania: SotN – 22.91%
Resident Evil – 20.60%
Kirby Super Star – 11.06%

Chrono Trigger – 56.36%
SMW2: Yoshi’s Island – 23.81%
Earthbound – 15.60%
Lufia II – 4.23%

Analysis

We continue our Mario killing frenzy, though this time one of the games will survive. The problem of generations is that it forces the two finalists to meet each other in round 3; at least Ocarina of Time met Final Fantasy VII in round 4 in the previous contest. The format also screws with strong titles that just can’t compete with the giants of this contest.

Chrono Trigger sure loves to go up against Mario games; this will be the fifth Mario game Chrono Trigger gets to verse over the two contests. I guess there’s no way keeping those two guys apart, even in game format. Chrono Trigger gets one more round of showing off before it gets beaten by the former champ. There has been some discussion of whether or not Super Mario 64 could take on Chrono Trigger, but with Yoshi’s Island in the same poll I doubt it.

Any fears that Super Mario 64 may not be as strong as we hoped for have been erased last round. Hopefully it can put to past the embarrassing defeat at the hands of Ocarina of Time. There has always been debate of which Mario game is the second strongest and while my personal bias makes me believe that Super Mario 64 is stronger than Super Mario World I don’t think anyone disagrees that the two games are similar in strength. Still even with Yoshi’s Island Super Mario 64 should look good here.

Castlevania looked fine last round and while it could have made some noise in another division being in this stacked division is impossible to do something. There’s not much to talk about Castlevania since it won’t be affecting anyone and it has no chance at advancing, so basically it’s a non-factor. Well at least it was lucky enough to be in this half of the division since the top half would have crushed it in round 1.

If you thought Yoshi’s Island’s performance was terrible last round you haven’t seen anything yet. Yoshi’s Island is always known as the forgotten Mario title; mention it and people remember it, but put it in a group of Mario games and people automatically forget about it. The only thing stopping Yoshi’s Island from getting annihilated is if like Final Fantasy there’s a rift between 2D and 3D Mario. It’s probably very unlikely though as Super Mario RPG is currently destroying Mario Kart 64. It’s possible to blame GoldenEye for that, but the main reason there is a difference between the Final Fantasy fanbases is because the series changed first party console not because depth was added.

You know, as badly as my bracket is it is likely that this division will be perfect. Of course so is everyone else that followed consensus, but who cares about them? Chrono Trigger and Super Mario 64 should have no problems winning giving us time to prepare for the exciting 98-00 division.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Chrono Trigger > Super Mario 64

charmander6000’s Prediction: Chrono Trigger – 43.63%, Super Mario 64 – 30.54%, Castlevania: SotN – 17.54%, SMW2: Yoshi’s Island – 8.29%

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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > GoldenEye 007 Points: 121/176
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/15/2009 8:35:29 PM | message detail
DIE MONSTER

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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/15/2009 8:37:33 PM | message detail
YOU DON'T BELONG IN THIS WORLD

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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/15/2009 8:37:58 PM | message detail
So I'm the only one who thinks Symphony of the Night upsetting Super Mario 64 is possible? I don't predict it, but still.
ZFS | Posted 5/15/2009 8:41:10 PM | message detail
SOTN shouldn't be close to Mario 64 unless Yoshi's Island manages to hold up, something I have a hard time believing after seeing it last round.

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__hiei__ | Posted 5/15/2009 8:41:44 PM | message detail
SoTN upseting is at least far more likely than SM64 beating a CT that has shown to be at least as strong as LTTP indirectly.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/15/2009 8:47:37 PM | message detail
I already posted Richter's conversation with Dracula sometime earlier, but I'm going to continue anyway.

IT WAS NOT BY MY HAND THAT I WAS ONCE AGAIN GIVEN FLESH.
creativename | Posted 5/15/2009 8:50:51 PM | message detail
Mario 64 will smash SotN easy.

And Yoshi's Island is going to look chumptastic here. Could be around where Lufia was last round.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/15/2009 8:54:39 PM | message detail
You know out of the three games Yoshi's Island may have the worst board vote.

This could get ugly...
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > GoldenEye 007 Points: 121/176
red sox 777 | Posted 5/15/2009 8:56:11 PM | message detail
Almost time for the most important match of the round. Go for 50% Chrono Trigger! You beat LTTP and FFVII's percentages last round, you can do it again.
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