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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 716

ffmasterjose | Posted 5/15/2009 11:56:40 AM | message detail
It's all part of the plan

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.

Hochi's League of Excellence™

Hochiminh

Black Turtle
Nintendogirl
Karma Hunter
Kleenex
Leonhart
Ultimaterializer
ZFS
Lopen
Yoblazer
Harrich

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126/176 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Final Fantasy VII > GoldenEye 007 | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/15/2009 12:30:30 PM | message detail
Crono: "..."
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
red sox 777 | Posted 5/15/2009 12:32:07 PM | message detail
Magus: "......!"
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/15/2009 1:05:41 PM | message detail
This is what you call a trip down memory lane?
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/15/2009 5:49:13 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bge09/bge09-40.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bge09/bge09-41.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bge09/bge09-42.jpg

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/15/2009 5:49:23 PM | message detail
I've recognized every match pic from every game I've played so far. It really doesn't mean the picture is appealing. I'm not belittling Brett's effort, but there's not much I think he could have done to begin with. Black and white is already a huge disadvantage.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 5:49:32 PM | message detail
Now you must all play Nocturnal Illusion ... !
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg
ZFS | Posted 5/15/2009 5:49:42 PM | message detail
CT pic needs more Magus tbqh

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a metal slime appears
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/15/2009 5:50:17 PM | message detail
Black and white is a huge disadvantage? When everyone played Pokemon on the original game Boy? Really now?

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/15/2009 5:50:39 PM | message detail
How the hell can you whine about a Pokemon pic featuring THE PLAYER SPRITE YOU SEE A BILLION TIMES WHEN PLAYING THE GAME and GARY OAK, THE LEGEND HIMSELF.

GARY WAS HERE, ASH IS A LOSER.
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 5:50:49 PM | message detail
if anything, black and white makes it stand out more since everything else is color
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 5/15/2009 5:50:50 PM | message detail
I've only played games from two generations, R/B/Y and D/P/C. I didn't like what I saw out of the new stuff...I shouldn't be allowed to steamroll through a game with one pokemon and no time spent really training.

You could do that with any Pokemon game or any game for that matter.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > GoldenEye 007 Points: 121/176
xp1337 | Posted 5/15/2009 5:51:12 PM | message detail
Let's save the endless Pokemon discussion for all of tomorrow when it will inevitably happen. Instead...

How does Alucard enact The Plan in the next match?
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
RPGuy96 | Posted 5/15/2009 5:51:14 PM | message detail
Black and white is a disadvantage compared to black and green?
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Mustache...and Green...
http://backloggery.com/rpguy96
Korayashi | Posted 5/15/2009 5:51:52 PM | message detail
True enough, I guess. I just recall needing to put forth more effort....er...then again, I was younger then >.>
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Nominate Mystical Ninja Starring Goemon! It's an N64 game! Do it!
http://youtube.com/watch?v=TyTLGdXNBUY&mode=related&search=
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/15/2009 5:52:08 PM | message detail
Black and white is a huge disadvantage? When everyone played Pokemon on the original game Boy? Really now?

When it comes to making an appealing picture, yes. The Round 1 Pokemon picture would obliterate this one. I know you couldn't submit something like that again, which is why I said you never had much to work with in the first place.
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Yoblazer: http://i37.tinypic.com/x1d2s9.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Korayashi | Posted 5/15/2009 5:52:35 PM | message detail
Alucard will lavish himself in defeat...Because the real winners come in third place.
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Nominate Mystical Ninja Starring Goemon! It's an N64 game! Do it!
http://youtube.com/watch?v=TyTLGdXNBUY&mode=related&search=
ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/15/2009 5:52:40 PM | message detail
Wow, calling the pic out over a black and white factor?

Did you realize that your points were stupid and tried focusing your whining on something else?
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 5/15/2009 5:52:56 PM | message detail
Black and white is a huge disadvantage? When everyone played Pokemon on the original game Boy? Really now?

I played it on the gameboy color...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > GoldenEye 007 Points: 121/176
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/15/2009 5:53:06 PM | message detail
Black and white is a disadvantage compared to black and green?

I've already said none of those pictures look very appealing and that there's no pic advantage anywhere.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 5/15/2009 5:53:46 PM | message detail
You see the Menu more than any other image in a Final Fantasy game, but it would still make for a lame pic.
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/15/2009 5:53:57 PM | message detail
If anything, the black and white just makes people nostalgically reminisce about the good ole' days of Pokeyman and Game Boys without anything else extra on the title.

Seriously, The Black and White Factor is the worst factor I've heard in months.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 5:54:12 PM | message detail
a menu pic for a ff game would be awesome
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg
ZFS | Posted 5/15/2009 5:54:23 PM | message detail
Honestly, the pic doesn't matter no matter how good it is. People thought FF had a huge pic advantage over FFIV's mess and that still was completely one sided. There's not going to be many times the pic has a significant effect on games.

The bigger thing is that both Pokemon games looks exactly the same, I think, but it shouldn't matter.

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a metal slime appears
ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/15/2009 5:55:11 PM | message detail

From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 5/15/2009 8:53:46 PM | #021
You see the Menu more than any other image in a Final Fantasy game, but it would still make for a lame pic.


You gotta be kidding me. You're comparing something iconic like the player sprite from Pokemon to a menu?

I don't think you have any idea what the hell you're talking about.
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/15/2009 5:56:03 PM | message detail
I'm just saying that the picture isn't appealing, and the fact that there's no color attributes to it. I'm not belittling your effort, taking a cheap shot at our the greatest ever Pokemon, or trying to invent some new "Factor."

"Good lord."

It's like I'm Black Turtle or something.
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Yoblazer: http://i42.tinypic.com/avk9ie.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transients | Posted 5/15/2009 5:56:20 PM | message detail
I think the point here isn't that it hurts, but rather that it doesn't matter. hell, when I looked at those pictures I didn't know which was which. I don't think voters care which is which either.

nobody's going to argue that G/S beats RBY over a damn picture. next you'll tell me that FF8 beats FF7 because of a Squall vs. Cait Sith picture.
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xyzzy
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/15/2009 5:56:31 PM | message detail
It's iconic? I don't really understand the thinking of Pokemon fans X_X
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/15/2009 5:56:37 PM | message detail
The bigger thing is that both Pokemon games looks exactly the same, I think, but it shouldn't matter.

Except that they don't. RBY clearly has the beginning of the battle sprites that everyone knows unique to it, as well as The Rival that everyone who's played the game knows and loves to hate.

GS is generic and would work for pretty much any Pokemon game, but RBY is RBY.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
Mac Arrowny | Posted 5/15/2009 5:56:52 PM | message detail
I admit that I only spent ~100 hours playing Red/Blue back in the day, but that pic does absolutely nothing for me. Guess I'm just not as hardcore as the average Pokemon fan.
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
Master Moltar | Posted 5/15/2009 5:57:02 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #024
Honestly, the pic doesn't matter no matter how good it is. People thought FF had a huge pic advantage over FFIV's mess and that still was completely one sided. There's not going to be many times the pic has a significant effect on games.

The bigger thing is that both Pokemon games looks exactly the same, I think, but it shouldn't matter.


pokemon fanz to be too confused to vote mgs > majora's mask confirmed
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 39 - Bracket: FF7 > GE - Vote: Goldeneye (119/176)
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/15/2009 5:58:43 PM | message detail
Yeah, same here. Back when I was playing, I didn't really care about the little in-battle human sprites that only appear for like a second every battle.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
ZFS | Posted 5/15/2009 5:58:48 PM | message detail
I played Pokemon RBY back in the day and those honestly could have been from the same damn game. I mean, it doesn't matter at all -- RBY's chances of advancing aren't hindered in the slightest -- but maybe we can take off of the Pokemon freak glasses for a second, man.

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a metal slime appears
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/15/2009 5:58:48 PM | message detail
Except that they don't. RBY clearly has the beginning of the battle sprites that everyone knows unique to it

I've put like 100 hours into both RBY and GSC, and I'd believe you if you told me that picture came from either. Basically... the Round 1 Pokemon picture (which you also created, IIRC) would smoke anything the game could have generated in this sprite/gameplay round.
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Yoblazer: http://i42.tinypic.com/avk9ie.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/15/2009 5:58:49 PM | message detail
And I think you're just plain wrong. No voters are gonna care if the pic is Black and White or color, and as far as it being unappealing goes I've had a good number of RBY fans tell me they loved the pic already.

I guess the Stats Topic is just on a different wavelength than most!

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
HaRRicH | Posted 5/15/2009 5:58:49 PM | message detail
I think the black and white plays in R/B/Y's favor, and the only thing that might have made it better would be using Game Boy-green. How much color do you want from a Pong-pic? If you think a black-n-white scheme would work best there, then it's probably similar for how it works for R/B/Y.

I think it's pretty scary that Pokemon have two pics that just say "Pokemon" and represent big moments in their games. Throw in LoZ:MM's good-yet-hurtful pic (most main characters have been in their games' pics, why not Link here?), and Pokemon games might impress...especially R/B/Y if G/S can't hang on. I'm glad MGS's kicks ass though (love Meryl being repped!)...though why is the codec 9001?


All this assumes the pics mean much, of course...but I do think Pokemon's got a pretty unique pic advantage.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 5/15/2009 5:58:54 PM | message detail
I'd be a little worried about FFVIII with that FFIX picture normally, but after we just saw FFIV trounce FFI with a cleary subpar picture, I don't think it matters. People seem to know what they're voting for here. Having actual games instead of characters likely helps, as does the contest being 4-ways. Much better chance someone has played one of the games and isn't just voting for a pretty picture.
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FastFalcon and Solid Snake snapped my neck in the guru contest.
ZFS | Posted 5/15/2009 5:59:38 PM | message detail
pokemon fanz to be too confused to vote mgs > majora's mask confirmed

mgs codec unstoppable

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a metal slime appears
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 5:59:39 PM | message detail
some pokemon hatin goin on here
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 5/15/2009 6:00:25 PM | message detail
I admit that I only spent ~100 hours playing Red/Blue back in the day, but that pic does absolutely nothing for me. Guess I'm just not as hardcore as the average Pokemon fan.

What other ingame pictures are there? Battling another trainer? Battling a random Pokemon? Using a field shot you'll get something like GS has...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > GoldenEye 007 Points: 121/176
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 6:00:45 PM | message detail
I'm glad MGS's kicks ass though (love Meryl being repped!)...though why is the codec 9001?

http://photos.commongate.com/11/38210_k3clh4chsr_l.jpg
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg
MetricTrout | Posted 5/15/2009 6:00:58 PM | message detail
The black and white pic is eye-catching, which is the most important part of the pic anyway.
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http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=147
transients | Posted 5/15/2009 6:01:02 PM | message detail
I think Majora's Mask has as much of an argument as Starcraft, honestly. it's the same argument, only with Pokemon it's like literally the same game, right down to the picture. at least FF8 and FF9 have distinct fanbases.
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xyzzy
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/15/2009 6:01:48 PM | message detail
What other ingame pictures are there? Battling another trainer? Battling a random Pokemon? Using a field shot you'll get something like GS has...

Exactly. I don't think the Poke pic makers could have put together anything as powerful as what it had last round. This isn't a shot at them, but the fact that cool Charizard/Blastoise/Pikachu art crushes anything in-game.
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Yoblazer: http://i42.tinypic.com/avk9ie.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/15/2009 6:03:22 PM | message detail
Well of course nothing beats last round's pic, but I think this pic comes pretty close. I'm extremely surprised people seem to be split on whether it's helpful or not.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 6:03:48 PM | message detail
http://www.friendcodes.com/forums/members/supermario1-albums-pokemon-yellow-picture31127-pokemon-yellow-version-ue-%5Bc%5D%5B-%5D.png

?
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg
xp1337 | Posted 5/15/2009 6:04:36 PM | message detail
I think Majora's Mask has as much of an argument as Starcraft, honestly. it's the same argument, only with Pokemon it's like literally the same game, right down to the picture. at least FF8 and FF9 have distinct fanbases.

I give Starcraft the slight edge when comparing their chances. But yes, both are unlikely, but I just feel Majora's Mask is even more unlikely.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
transients | Posted 5/15/2009 6:06:52 PM | message detail
well, Majora has a bigger deficit to make up, but I'd argue that the Pokemon overlap is greater than the Final Fantasy overlap. I'd put both as being pretty small but I wouldn't be surprised in the least if either happened.

that said, I'll bet on the much stronger game every day of the week.
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/15/2009 6:06:52 PM | message detail
And as far as RBY and GS being the 'same game'...GS sold about half as much, came out when anti-Pokemon hype was in full swing, and lost to Xenogears back when this site still disliked Pokemon. There are a huge number of people who played RBY but not GS. RBY and GS share more overlap than FFVIII and FFIX, but RBY is gonna SFF GS way harder than FFVIII could ever hope to SFF FFIX.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/15/2009 6:09:58 PM | message detail
I think it's the "same game" in that it shouldn't really add any more strength or new voters to Pokemon as a whole. In that sense, I think all Pokemon sequels are pretty much the "same game."

I'm not sure how many people exist who love Diamond/Pearl and wouldn't vote for Red/Blue, but I imagine them to be a strange and tiny minority.
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Yoblazer: http://i37.tinypic.com/x1d2s9.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!