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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 715

Lopen | Posted 5/14/2009 11:03:43 PM | message detail
I still say SotN has more upset potential than SM64 in that match, even after seeing it get doubled.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/14/2009 11:05:36 PM | message detail
I'd agree, simply because I think Mario 64 beating CT despite another Mario platformer there is impossible.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 11:06:50 PM | message detail
49%+ update for FFVII. Breaking 44% imminent.

Heck, it could get to 47% at this rate. That'd be a solid performance in my book.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/14/2009 11:08:33 PM | message detail
The only thing is that Magus/Knuckles, Crono/Sonic, and Crono/Vincent 2007 have taught me to fear the worst, regardless of whether it is justified. So I can't say I won't be nervous, like I am every CT match.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/14/2009 11:21:56 PM | message detail
FFVII over 44% and still rising fast! We're still relatively early in the night vote too; we're going to be seeing some 55% hours tonight I think.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/14/2009 11:53:01 PM | message detail
Yeah, tomorrow's match is basically locked up as far as the placing. Before the contest, Symphony of the Night advancing wouldn't be such a bad upset pick since the list suggests that it and Mario 64 are close together in strength, but now...

...though as I said, I wouldn't be all that surprised if Symphony of the Night still advanced. It's the only game not from a Nintendo console, could get the support of neutral (non-Squintendo) fans (then again Half-Life didn't), and there's the possibility that it could get Resident Evil's votes. Yoshi's Island will be curbstomped. Speaking of Symphony of the Night...

Richter: Die monster. You don't belong in this world!
Dracula: It was not by my hand that I was once again given flesh. I was called here by humans who wished to pay me tribute.
Richter: Tribute!?! You steal men's souls and make them your slaves!
Dracula: Perhaps the same could be said of all religions...
Richter: Your words are as empty as your soul! Mankind ill needs a savior such as you!
Dracula: What is a man? A miserable little pile of secrets. But enough talk...Have at you!

dun dun dun duuuuuuuuuuuun
red sox 777 | Posted 5/15/2009 12:07:57 AM | message detail
FFVII by the hour:

1:00 | 42.48%
2:00 | 45.83%
3:00 | 48.17%

Wow.....we're not even in the Final Fantasy VII Total Domination Zone yet. Considering how bad SMRPG is in Europe, we'll be seeing quite a few 60% updates in a couple hours......maybe, just maybe, a 60% hour.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/15/2009 12:14:40 AM | message detail
I saw the pic, expecting GE to get wrecked....and Im complete shock its steadily in 2nd with little fear.
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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.
__Smurf__ | Posted 5/15/2009 12:17:34 AM | message detail
It's not going to get a 60% hour or anything close to it.
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Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/15/2009 12:18:14 AM | message detail
60%? mabe an update or two, but not for an hour.
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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/15/2009 12:24:10 AM | message detail
I just Realized Zolom is in the pic.
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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.
Sonic_Factor | Posted 5/15/2009 12:25:52 AM | message detail
damn ff7 is killing the competition right now.. This will end at perhaps 46% for ff7..considering its still going to rise but fall some in the afternoon.. Better then OoT's performace considering the competition imo.
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 5/15/2009 12:29:58 AM | message detail
Hell yes FF7 and Goldeneye! Cleanin house!
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MadGamer_11 | Posted 5/15/2009 12:43:46 AM | message detail
CT is going to absolutely slaughter SM64 tommorow so much that it will be seem as a lock for next round. CTDS IMHO created a huge boost for CT that can propel it far in this contest.
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Sonic_Factor | Posted 5/15/2009 12:46:53 AM | message detail
What are people's predictions for tomorrow anyways? CT getting about 35-40?
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Nominate Red XIII for the Character Battle VII!
He's the Lion with a fire tail from Final Fantasy VII.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/15/2009 12:52:20 AM | message detail
35% would be awful and would certainly put it in danger of losing (because there's no way I see Yoshi's Island staying above 10%). It's gotta shoot for at least 40%.
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Chaotic Mind | Posted 5/15/2009 1:27:00 AM | message detail
I had it at ~47%, but i also had SMW2 at like 7%. After seeing all the other Mario games perform higher than my original expectations, i've decided to raise Yoshi's Island to at least 10%, at the expense of CT. I already have SM64 at about 30% while SOTN is slightly over 15%, and i'm not changing either of them. On second thought, i might raise SM64 a bit too.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/15/2009 1:29:12 AM | message detail
We haven't seen a bottom tier Mario up against a top tier one, though. I wouldn't be surprised if Mario 3 held Mario 1 to single digits, so I shudder to think at what we're going to get tomorrow. Shudder with happiness, because Mario 64 is awesome.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Chaotic Mind | Posted 5/15/2009 1:40:40 AM | message detail
True that we haven't seen that situation yet, but in a similar situation i was expecting SMRPG to get blasted by FFVII with rpg SFF. It's holding up surprisingly well, so i'm less inclined to go with a curbstomp, atm anyway. I too would be happy to see Yoshi's Island crushed though. SM64 is a top 10 game in my book. Unfortunately SOTN and CT are another two such games, so i'm going to have a damn hard time deciding who to vote for tomorrow.
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Flash runs alongside Balefire watching marshmallows stop existing. - WarThaNemesis2
Chaotic Mind | Posted 5/15/2009 1:45:51 AM | message detail
Heh, nevermind, an earlier post of yours just reminded me of what happened to Mega Man 3. Yeah, YI <10% here we come!
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Flash runs alongside Balefire watching marshmallows stop existing. - WarThaNemesis2
BOOMSHAKALAKA1 | Posted 5/15/2009 1:58:37 AM | message detail
man, ff7 is doing awesome.. and still rising a lot
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/15/2009 2:25:25 AM | message detail
@ChaoticMind: Well, before the entire contest I created a top 50 games list (getting bigger eventually) to tell me who vote for. Over the course of the contest I added some Final Fantasy games in there. I may sound like a nerd, but that's how things go.

And yes, I'm NOT voting for the first game I had ever heard of. Maybe I shoud? Both Chrono Trigger and Mario 64 deserve to win the whole contest IMO. Symphony of the Night and Yoshi's Island are amazing, but they fall just short.

And according to vote totals SotN is the weakest game in the fourpack, which makes some sense, to be honest. SO HOW THE HELL DID IT MANAGE TO MAKE 15TH ON THE FREAKING LIST??? THAT LIST MAKES IT SEEM LIKE MARIO 64 AND SOTN ARE CLOSE IN STRENGTH!!!

Because of that, I still won't rule out the possibility of Symphony of the Night coming close to, or even succeding in, placing. It's got the neutral fans' vote here, remember? Even then, it's the only game not from a Nintendo console (though it does have some NES sprites in it), so that could give it somewhat of an advantage).

So let's see what else we're waiting for.

Day 41: POKEMON FEVER FTW
Day 42: The Best. Game. Ever. takes flight! And we've got StarCraft madness.
Day 43: Will Kingdom Hearts be able to stand up to Final Fantasy?
Day 44: Three crazy multiplayer action-fests face each other. (BTW I find it ironic how out of these games, two of them are well known for button mashing/clickfests while one of them has moments where you can put your controller on the floor and still move on)
Day 45: Tales of Symphonia's match!
Day 46: Twilight Princess? Resident Evil 4? Kingdom Hearts 2? Who've you got?
Day 47: Could Call of Duty 4 take advantage of Nintendo LFF?
Day 48: Great games, boring match.
BOOMSHAKALAKA1 | Posted 5/15/2009 2:28:43 AM | message detail
lol, @ ppl saying ff7 wouldnt even hit 45% when they saw the first hour.. its about to hit 47% dayam.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/15/2009 2:45:09 AM | message detail
Here comes the vote total stats! The main question is: did Sonic 2 feel loads of SFF heat?

Final Fantasy VI's vote total was about 92.6% of its vote total in round 1.
Zelda: Link's Awakening's vote total was about 98.81% of its vote total in round 1.
Sonic the Hedgehog 2's vote total was about 53.67% of its vote total in round 1.
Mortal Kombat II's vote total was about 49.92% of its vote total in round 1.

On one side, both FF6 and LA did very well in keeping their votes from round 1, and something tells me that FF6 benefited from being the sole RPG in today's match as opposed to last time. But our losing entrants did horrible. None of the new entrants looks like something that could SFF MKII, so I think it is a matter of this Mortal Kombat being another casual franchise like Mario Kart that collapses when strong competition comes in. Sonic 2 also did bad, but that makes sense. So, coming up with a list of casual franchises we know, we come up with Sonic, Street Fighter, Mario Kart, Metroid, and Mortal Kombat. I dunno what to say.

And I will not post the list of vote total anymore unless somebody absolutely requests it.

The question for next round regards how hardcore Final Fantasy VI's fanbase is. It kept most of its votes from round 1, but at the same time, how many could it lose next round? The two games that came in were not only midcarders at best, but they weren't RPGs or even SNES games (I'm right in calling Mortal Kombat II a Genesis game, right?). Next round two strong games will come to the fray.

Oh, and for some reason Super Metroid match put back the feeling that the Metroid franchise is getting stronger in these contests into me? What do you guys think?
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/15/2009 3:06:21 AM | message detail
Awesome result. Clean house, Goldeneye.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 5/15/2009 3:07:54 AM | message detail
Super Metroid had some of the oddest spikes I've ever seen since Samus v Sonic in 2002. I have no doubt it should be eliminated legitimately and it's in for a world of pain next round.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/15/2009 6:12:09 AM | message detail
Very impressive GoldenEye, though seeing Final Fantasy VII explode from the beginning is always fun at every match. It's like the anti-joke entrant.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > GoldenEye 007 Points: 121/176
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/15/2009 6:52:53 AM | message detail
*wakes up*

whoa... and yesterday night I thought I had overshot FF7 with 48%. Good job.
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Today's prediction: Zolom 48.01% - Pierce Brosnan 21.30% - I'm-a Wario 15.70% - SMRPG 14.99%
Status: alright
red sox 777 | Posted 5/15/2009 7:15:39 AM | message detail
Good job FFVII; we'll be going through 48% soon. It'll probably lose some ground with the ASV, but if not, we could end above 49%. Unfortunately it didn't jump up in the dead zone compared to the 2-4 AM period quite as much as usual, but then, I guess it wasn't a good idea to measure usual based on Zack Fair.

For tomorrow, I think I'd be satisfied with 45% from CT, considering that Yoshi's Island is in the poll, even if it's going to be completely fodderized......would like to see it above 47%, however.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 5/15/2009 7:16:46 AM | message detail
Chrono Trigger above 45%?

Don't count on this. It'll be lucky to hit 40.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
red sox 777 | Posted 5/15/2009 7:20:22 AM | message detail
Failing to hit 40% with Yoshi's Island in the poll would be a disaster, considering that SOTN doesn't look like it's going to take in many votes based on last round- if it got about doubled with Kirby Super Star in the poll, it's not going to do too much better swapping KSS for a game that overlaps more but will get killed worse. If CT only gets 40%.....it probably loses to Mario 64 and YI combined. That's effectively calling SM64 the favorite the next round with FFVII in the poll.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/15/2009 7:21:49 AM | message detail
Chrono Trigger should have no problems breaking 40% unless YI decides to show that it does have some strength.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > GoldenEye 007 Points: 121/176
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/15/2009 7:26:37 AM | message detail
Mario 64 is no joke. Maybe saying Chrono Trigger'd be lucky to break 40% is going a bit far, but I don't think it gets much more than that.

SotN's probably gonna grab around 15% of the vote, and Yoshi's Island'll probably get around the same, maybe a little less.

A 40/30 split for CT/Mario 64 for the remaining 70% seems about right to me, give or take a few.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
red sox 777 | Posted 5/15/2009 7:29:21 AM | message detail
That's the difference between us I think. I don't think Yoshi's Island is going to get anywhere near 15%, and if it somehow resists SFF and does.....SM64 is going look pretty bad.
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The Mana Sword | Posted 5/15/2009 7:32:19 AM | message detail
Mario 64 and Yoshi's Island might both be Mario games, but they're about as different as you can get from two games in the same series. I don't think there's going to be a lot of SFF there.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
BOOMSHAKALAKA1 | Posted 5/15/2009 7:33:07 AM | message detail
imo..

SMW2- 9%
SoTN- 16%
SM64- 34%
CT- 40-42%
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/15/2009 7:35:59 AM | message detail
And for the record, unless CT absolutely crushes the poll tomorrow, it's still absolutely in danger of losing to Mario 64 next round.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/15/2009 7:36:11 AM | message detail
Absolutely.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?
charmander6000 | Posted 5/15/2009 7:50:33 AM | message detail
I'm not so sure, GoldenEye will weaken SM64 next round. It depends on how well SM64 does tomorrow.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > GoldenEye 007 Points: 121/176
red sox 777 | Posted 5/15/2009 8:23:21 AM | message detail
There's always the possibility of FFVII SFFing CT. My fears for that match won't completely go away until I see CT out to a big lead on Mario 64/Goldeneye at the beginning of that match.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/15/2009 8:26:32 AM | message detail
Having Fun with Numbers

Assuming GoldenEye gets 32% on Final Fantasy VII when this is over using SotN Super Mario 64 is expected to get about 46% on Chrono Trigger.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > GoldenEye 007 Points: 121/176
Master Moltar | Posted 5/15/2009 8:32:11 AM | message detail
Great recovery from FF7. Also good show from Goldeneye if it's only getting doubled by FF7.

Still can't believe that Mario Kart would be the Mario game that's holding the stronger one back. Gotta stop doubting SMRPG!

Tomorrow should be boring as well. SMW2 is going to get killed, and Mario 64 should end up doing well on CT.
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 39 - Bracket: FF7 > GE - Vote: Goldeneye (119/176)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/15/2009 9:43:22 AM | message detail
Wow, FFVII over 48% now. That's pretty amazing. It's gone from 60/40 on GE to doubling it, and from doubling Mario RPG to nearly tripling it.

Mario Kart 64 is now doing worse than Star Fox 64 last round on FFVII.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/15/2009 10:13:05 AM | message detail
Now, FFVII, show us your old day vote! As recently as 2007 you still had a good ASV!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/15/2009 10:38:38 AM | message detail
A fine performance from FFVII, but an even better one from Bond, in my opinion. I think this throws Goldeneye/MGS back in the realm of contention.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/15/2009 10:41:37 AM | message detail
I don't know if I'd go that far. MGS certainly had reason to underperform in 2004, and that was the series' weakest year anyway.

I'd still take MGS, but it's hard to say. I'm not sure what to think of MGS right now.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 10:42:11 AM | message detail
well seems ff7 is just fine afterall
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/15/2009 10:44:06 AM | message detail
MGS did fine given GSC overperformed; being in a poll the day after RBY blasts the hell out of things means a lot.

Anyway, I think CTDS ensures Mario 64 will lose. CT had already handily beaten Mario 3 and Mario World, I see no reason why it can't beat Mario 64.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/15/2009 10:48:13 AM | message detail
I can't believe people think a mid tier mario game has a shot against CT especially with another mario game in the match =\
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/15/2009 10:48:18 AM | message detail
I wonder what's hurting Mario RPG more - RPG SFF or another Mario title in the poll.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!