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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 715

WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:26:52 PM | message detail
Mario 3/FFVII/MGS4/FFX finals, Mario 3 to win the contest let's do this.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:26:57 PM | message detail
A perfect split gives Starcraft a pretty comfortable victory (like 55-45). Of course, that won't happen, and FFIX isn't as strong as FFVIII either, but assuming OOT puts up a really high number, SC just needs to get to 47% or so and rallying can take it from there, based on 2004.
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creativename | Posted 5/14/2009 9:27:42 PM | message detail
GoldenEye could be top 20. It's not top 15. Top 15 has some real strong games.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:27:49 PM | message detail
I'd say Starcraft has a decent or even good chane.

It's definitely not small. If FF9 holds up at all it's trouble for FF8.

FF9 is newer than FF1 so it might hold up better than 1 did against 4.


No it doesn't, if Starcraft can defeat FFVIII then LttP > FFVII in round 4 is a lock, not a possibility, a lock.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > GoldenEye 007 Points: 121/176
Lopen | Posted 5/14/2009 9:27:57 PM | message detail
SC is going to have no problem whatsoever there. Expect a massive FF underperformance along the lines of SMW there.
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transience | Posted 5/14/2009 9:28:07 PM | message detail
Starcraft has to show that people care enough to rally before even bringing it up.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 9:28:33 PM | message detail
I don't know how you can say StarCraft doesn't have a chance after what we saw FFI/FFIV did.

Trust me, as the resident FFVIII fanboy, if it were such a lock, I wouldn't be so nervous about it!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/14/2009 9:29:14 PM | message detail

From: transience | #156
Starcraft has to show that people care enough to rally before even bringing it up.


2004 game contest
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Lopen | Posted 5/14/2009 9:29:25 PM | message detail
In fact I could quite easily see Starcraft's percentage increase from the round previous.

The hatred will be strong in that match.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 9:30:23 PM | message detail
Increase? You expect it to get 30%+ with OoT there? What in the world are you expecting everyone else to get?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/14/2009 9:30:43 PM | message detail
FF8 and FF9 have pretty unique fanbases for FF games. Remember that FF1/FF4 was the exception, not the norm.

I'm just not seeing it. StarCraft got destroyed. FF8 and FF9 would have to split as much as FF1 and FF4 did for SC to stand a chance, and that's just not going to come anywhere close to happening.

And resistant PC fanbases? Yeah, tell that to Half-Life 1.

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creativename | Posted 5/14/2009 9:31:00 PM | message detail
Rallying won't be nearly like in 2K4 for Starcraft. The game was hyped to hell and back pre-contest and it was up against the loathed Halo.

Not to mention that a lot more cheating/proxy prevention methods are in place now. Rallying will be limited. 4chan is really the only rally force that really matters nowadays, except for Chrono Trigger-like rallies at the end of matches that account for a few hundred votes.

Starcraft's time has passed now. It's just not as strong as back then.

However it still has a shot because of the major LFF. Also FF8's board vote will probably suck, starting it off in a probable hole.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:31:01 PM | message detail
Starcraft is very likely to beat FFVIII over the first 3 hours. Last round it put up over 44% there, so it's very likely to have a lead early on. That should get people interested.

Also, there's a big difference between FFVIII/FFIX overlap and FFVII/CT/FFVI overlap. In the first case, the overlap should be much closer, although triple LFF may end up making up for 8 and 9 naturally being closer.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:32:56 PM | message detail
I'm willing to bet that FFIV/FF was a one time thing, besides FFVIII and FFIX have fans of their own game that do not overlap with the other. I stand by my LttP > FFVII as a lock in round 4 if Starcraft advance.
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syco_coaster | Posted 5/14/2009 9:33:11 PM | message detail
People saying OoT is not in the finals; where could it possibly get third place?
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Lopen | Posted 5/14/2009 9:33:26 PM | message detail
OoT - 40
Starcraft - 30
FFVIII - 20
FFIX - 10

Believe
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creativename | Posted 5/14/2009 9:34:41 PM | message detail
FF8 and FF9 have pretty unique fanbases for FF games. Remember that FF1/FF4 was the exception, not the norm.

This is a good point, I hadn't thought of that. Though FF9 could hold up better than FF1 because it's much newer, you're right - since the games are newer and with higher playrates, the LFF shouldn't be as drastic as the old-school Square LFF.


Starcraft is very likely to beat FFVIII over the first 3 hours. Last round it put up over 44% there, so it's very likely to have a lead early on. That should get people interested.

Yes I was thinking the same thing. Kind of a last year's final two match Snake-like thing. But not as powerful, because Starcraft isn't as loved as Snake, and FF8 isn't as hated as Cloud. Still it could be trouble.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:34:55 PM | message detail
But Lopen, that's no fun! We need Starcraft to have miracle comebacks to build up its strength so it beats OOT in the final! (In the case that happens....Save_Us.FFVII)
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:34:59 PM | message detail
People saying OoT is not in the finals; where could it possibly get third place?

OoT/FFX/MGS/Melee is a pretty interesting spot
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/14/2009 9:34:59 PM | message detail
OoT 40
FFIX 23
FFVIII 22
SC 15

yes

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/14/2009 9:35:42 PM | message detail
Ocarina of Time would make the finals if it had to deal with LttP in every single match. Please let's not doubt Ocarina's ability to tear **** up.
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creativename | Posted 5/14/2009 9:35:46 PM | message detail
OoT - 40
Starcraft - 30
FFVIII - 20
FFIX - 10

Believe


why
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:36:30 PM | message detail
For Starcraft to win FFVIII needs to have 36% of its fanbase overlap with FFIX and prefer it over FFVIII.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > GoldenEye 007 Points: 121/176
red sox 777 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:36:47 PM | message detail
And there's no way OOT loses before the finals. SSBM is the strongest Nintendo game in the bottom half of the bracket, and OOT isn't going to come close to losing to either FFX or MGS with it in the poll, much less both.
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transience | Posted 5/14/2009 9:37:00 PM | message detail
rank these -

Super Mario RPG
Goldeneye
Link's Awakening
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/14/2009 9:37:02 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #173
For Starcraft to win FFVIII needs to have 36% of its fanbase overlap with FFIX and prefer it over FFVIII.


no
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/14/2009 9:37:44 PM | message detail
Goldeneye
Link's Awakening
Super Mario RPG

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Lopen | Posted 5/14/2009 9:38:29 PM | message detail
OoT - 40
Starcraft - 30
FFVIII - 20
FFIX - 10

Believe

why


I'm telling you, it's the status-quo vote. They'll vote against the tyrant Link and his lackey Final Fantasy in mass numbers. There is no other option here. It's going to look awesome.
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creativename | Posted 5/14/2009 9:38:42 PM | message detail
OoT is more of a lock for the finals than FF7.

The closest either comes to getting 3rd is probably the FF7/LttP/FF6/CT match.
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ffmasterjose | Posted 5/14/2009 9:38:48 PM | message detail
I have zero faith in Starcraft do to anything this round except take third place >_>
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/14/2009 9:38:53 PM | message detail
i find it funny how peopel are ignoring one of the biggest factors of the ff8/starcraft match

Who does OoT SFF more? I think the answer is obvious
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:39:26 PM | message detail
For Starcraft to win FFVIII needs to have 36% of its fanbase overlap with FFIX and prefer it over FFVIII.


no


Yes, FFVIII defeated Starcraft by 19302 votes so 19302/52918 = 36.5% of FFVIII's votes must be leeched off for Starcraft to be equal. Also since FFVIII is the stronger game it's going to need LFF to do that.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:40:21 PM | message detail
Who does OoT SFF more? I think the answer is obvious

None of them since they have nothing in common?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 9:40:31 PM | message detail
Just remember that FFVIII was 62/38 last round, and that's not even factoring in whatever Xenogears may have been holding back. Let's look at situations where a character who came in second place the round before finished ahead due to a split.

Auron/Ryu - Auron beat Ryu with 57.80% in round 2, factor in Cloud Strife and Ryu wins with 52.71%, which is a 10.51% turnaround.

Luigi/Liquid - Luigi beat Liquid with 54.53% in round 1, factor in Bowser and Liquid wins with 52.31% (6.84% turnaround), factor in Mario and Liquid wins with 57.94% (12.47% turnaround)

Even in those cases, where Auron and Luigi basically got the worst opponents they could've gotten, the turnaround wasn't as big as what StarCraft needs except with Luigi/Mario.

Of course, there's always Riku/Ryu Hayabusa, where Hayabusa doubles him the round before (though Roxas being there hindered Riku a good bit, no doubt) and then loses to him the next round by throwing Snake into the mix. That's about the most extreme case there is, and it doesn't even make sense!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/14/2009 9:40:42 PM | message detail
For Starcraft to win FFVIII needs to have 36% of its fanbase overlap with FFIX and prefer it over FFVIII.

Sorry, but I can't believe we're still making number arguments like this after Super Mario World. It's hilarious.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/14/2009 9:41:07 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #183
Who does OoT SFF more? I think the answer is obvious

None of them since they have nothing in common?


OoT is much more likely to SFF another japanese game then an american PC game.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:41:31 PM | message detail
36% seems.....very possible, actually.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:42:09 PM | message detail
Sorry, but I can't believe we're still making number arguments like this after Super Mario World. It's hilarious.

Yes let's use the anomaly and ignore everything else.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:42:21 PM | message detail
So how's about that triple Nintendo LFF today
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 9:42:58 PM | message detail
OoT/FFX/MGS/Melee is a pretty interesting spot

Uhhh...

Also, are we seriously discussing OoT SFFing FFVIII as an argument for StarCraft advancing? Now we're getting desperate.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:43:18 PM | message detail
OoT is much more likely to SFF another japanese game then an american PC game.

You seem to forget that Asia hates Zelda while North America loves it, so I'm not sure where you're going with this.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > GoldenEye 007 Points: 121/176
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/14/2009 9:43:18 PM | message detail
Oh wow, I just looked at its Round 1 performance, and it's scary how much FFVII rose from this point. It should hit the mid-40s like cake.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:43:30 PM | message detail
No, he's right, consider an analogous case: FFVII vs. OOT vs. CT vs. Starcraft in the final. Which game stands out there?
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syco_coaster | Posted 5/14/2009 9:43:33 PM | message detail

From: WarThaNemesis2 | #169
People saying OoT is not in the finals; where could it possibly get third place?

OoT/FFX/MGS/Melee is a pretty interesting spot


That's definitely interesting, though I still doubt it would lose.

Problem is my bracket has that match as FF8 in place of MGS, which nullifies this.

@ albion: I don't see SFF as a factor between OoT and SC, or OoT and FF8. All their fanbases are big enough and have little crossover.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/14/2009 9:43:54 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #190
OoT/FFX/MGS/Melee is a pretty interesting spot

Uhhh...

Also, are we seriously discussing OoT SFFing FFVIII as an argument for StarCraft advancing? Now we're getting desperate.


OoT being there isn't going to make the match go identical to last time. Its going to take votes from games.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:44:06 PM | message detail
36% seems.....very possible, actually.

Maybe if FFVII replaced FFIX, but for a stronger game I doubt it.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > GoldenEye 007 Points: 121/176
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/14/2009 9:44:09 PM | message detail
Yes let's use the anomaly and ignore everything else.

What's "everything else"? How often have we seen scenarios like this?
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transience | Posted 5/14/2009 9:44:22 PM | message detail
Starcraft stood out like hell last round and that didn't stop it from getting annihilated by FF8.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 9:44:45 PM | message detail
No, he's right, consider an analogous case: FFVII vs. OOT vs. CT vs. Starcraft in the final. Which game stands out there?

StarCraft, and it still gets dead last. Get this Sore Thumb Factor outta here!
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creativename | Posted 5/14/2009 9:45:35 PM | message detail
Sorry, but I can't believe we're still making number arguments like this after Super Mario World. It's hilarious.

Like the guy said - that's an anomaly.

I don't agree with that simple 36% logic, but this is absolutely not the reason why.
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