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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 715

red sox 777 | Posted 5/13/2009 10:13:22 PM | message detail
Let's mosey.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.

Hochi's League of Excellence™

Hochiminh

Black Turtle
Nintendogirl
Karma Hunter
Kleenex
Leonhart
Ultimaterializer
ZFS
Lopen
Yoblazer
Harrich
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/14/2009 8:05:01 AM | message detail
Tagalicious
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 10:12:44 AM | message detail
I'm-a Luigi! Number one!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/14/2009 6:43:50 PM | message detail
In all seriousness, can we delete that hochi thing now?
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
red sox 777 | Posted 5/14/2009 8:31:00 PM | message detail
I'm all for getting rid of it!
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 8:39:51 PM | message detail
Play Skies of Arcadia
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 8:40:25 PM | message detail
You need a majority to get rid of that, find six people and it shall be done.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/14/2009 8:40:56 PM | message detail
hi guys
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/14/2009 8:42:32 PM | message detail
New rule

If you post "Play *insert game here, as in actually inserting the game not typing insert game here you ninny* then everyone must play that game. To completion. Even if you've played it before!

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 8:43:55 PM | message detail
What happens if you don't own the game?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/14/2009 8:45:43 PM | message detail
Then you buy/'find' it. Rules are rules.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 8:46:32 PM | message detail
Starting with Skies of Arcadia.

And ending there.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/14/2009 8:46:56 PM | message detail
I can allow this.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 8:47:00 PM | message detail
We should make a topic following everyone's progress.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
HaRRicH | Posted 5/14/2009 8:47:03 PM | message detail
Hochi's list got its laugh, let's take it off. We great ones don't have to announce our greatness to others so openly (even if BT does)!


Gotta agree with the idea that SM64 needs SMRPG to win for the best chance to compete with CT. The SNES RPG-fanbase will mean more when it's split after FF7 is already taking so many votes, and Mario's probably associated less with RPGs than racing. It also keeps the Mario titles on different systems, a potential edge MK64 and GE don't have.

I don't think SM64 gets close enough to challenge CT in R3 despite whoever advances, though...at least not yet.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
Applekidjosh | Posted 5/14/2009 8:47:08 PM | message detail
what is the hochi thing anyway?

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I seem to have prematurely shot my wad on what was supposed to be a dry run, and now I have a bit of a mess on my hands
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 8:48:54 PM | message detail
I don't expect Mario 64 to touch Chrono Trigger. I mean, it 60/40'd Mario World. How much stronger do you think Mario 64 is than that?

And whatever drop CT may have had since then appears to be minor, at least for now.
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ZFS | Posted 5/14/2009 8:49:57 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be worried about CT failing to advance in round 3, unless it gives a reason to think it's vulnerable in the next couple of days.

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a metal slime appears
creativename | Posted 5/14/2009 8:51:52 PM | message detail
I wonder if being with another somewhat-Square RPG, other Nintendo games, as well as maybe last place factor will combine to make SMRPG look pretty bad here.
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gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 8:51:59 PM | message detail
Just wondering, Super Mario World or Super Mario 64?

Super Mario 64 for me.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/14/2009 8:52:42 PM | message detail
ya'll ready for an epic goldeneye collapse
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 8:52:53 PM | message detail
There's no such thing as last place factor and if there was it won't happen here. Super Mario RPG is not outclassed here.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/14/2009 8:53:13 PM | message detail
Goldeneye has Oddjob on its side. Good luck even hitting that jerk!

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 8:53:34 PM | message detail
Super Mario RPG is too strong to get Last Place Factor'd, I think, if there is such a thing. It may get SFF'd, but that's another story.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 8:53:52 PM | message detail
Oh, and Mario World > Mario 64 here
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/14/2009 8:54:56 PM | message detail
Albion, you're just mad my pic wasn't DQ'ed like you kept ranting about.

I'll take SM64 > SMW to be the second strongest SMB game.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
transience | Posted 5/14/2009 8:55:49 PM | message detail
I've got a good feeling about Mario Kart here.
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yzzyx
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/14/2009 8:55:56 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #026
Albion, you're just mad my pic wasn't DQ'ed like you kept ranting about.

I'll take SM64 > SMW to be the second strongest SMB game.


no im just mad that goldeneye sucks and is unplayable nowadays compared to mario rpg, which is still a great game
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/14/2009 8:56:35 PM | message detail
Hah - if anything, Mario RPG is unplayable compared to the Paper Mario series. Goldeneye at leats has nostalgia!

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 8:57:46 PM | message detail
How is GoldenEye unplayable? It's about as playable as any game that existed back then.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
transience | Posted 5/14/2009 8:57:57 PM | message detail
everything from this era is unplayable!
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xyzzy
http://www.mistwalkercorp.com/en/_src/sc569/HNI_0022.jpg
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/14/2009 8:58:25 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #030
How is GoldenEye unplayable? It's about as playable as any game that existed back then.


duel analog is how you play consoel fps now. goldeneye just isn't playable anymore. I played it for the first time in like 2003 or 2004, after being used to Halo and such, and I just couldn't play it, it was so bad now
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http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/14/2009 8:58:43 PM | message detail
everything from this era is unplayable!

Attack while the tail is up!

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/14/2009 8:59:28 PM | message detail
Pft FFVII with its lego blocks has better artistic style, and therefore graphics, than 90% of modern games.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
AmazingKirby | Posted 5/14/2009 8:59:38 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
HaRRicH | Posted 5/14/2009 8:59:56 PM | message detail
I think GE's still playable, Halo just shifted a lot of FPS's control styles from 2001 onward and everyone could get used to GE again after that.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 9:00:17 PM | message detail
GoldenEye 007 20%

1
Super Mario RPG 20%

1
Final Fantasy VII 20%

1
Mario Kart 64 40%

2
TOTAL VOTES 5

Aw yeah, I put Mario Kart 64 in the lead!
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Mr3790 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:00:22 PM | message detail
GoldenEye 007 41.67% 5
Super Mario RPG 8.33% 1
Final Fantasy VII 16.67% 2
Mario Kart 64 33.33% 4
TOTAL VOTES 12

GE!
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AC:WW Code: Name:Mr.378 Town:Darkcity FC: 4210-5769-8462
GENO WHIRL!
Master Moltar | Posted 5/14/2009 9:00:23 PM | message detail
yeahhhhhhhhhhhhh goldeneye
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 39 - Bracket: FF7 > GE - Vote: Goldeneye (119/176)
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/14/2009 9:00:29 PM | message detail
watch out for Pierce Brosnan

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Today's prediction: Zolom 48.01% - Pierce Brosnan 21.30% - I'm-a Wario 15.70% - SMRPG 14.99%
Status:
transience | Posted 5/14/2009 9:00:35 PM | message detail
hey, not bad Goldeneye.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg
TheOceIot | Posted 5/14/2009 9:00:36 PM | message detail
GoldenEye 007 34.15%

42
Super Mario RPG 12.2%

15
Final Fantasy VII 33.33%

41
Mario Kart 64 20.33%

25
TOTAL VOTES 123
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Currently Playing: Deus Ex, Suikoden Tierkreis, GTA: Chinatown Wars
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 9:00:41 PM | message detail
Oh man, FFVII's board vote is a classic
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MnMZero | Posted 5/14/2009 9:00:44 PM | message detail
lol FFVII board vote
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/14/2009 9:00:50 PM | message detail
Golden Gun'd

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:00:55 PM | message detail
GoldenEye 007 32.2% 19
Super Mario RPG 11.86% 7
Final Fantasy VII 32.2% 19
Mario Kart 64 23.73% 14
TOTAL VOTES 59

Let's go FFVII
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:01:17 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3483&region=GB

Sonic 2 > LA
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > GoldenEye 007 Points: 121/176
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/14/2009 9:01:30 PM | message detail
hmm... MK64 bombing instead of SMRPG?
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Today's prediction: Zolom 48.01% - Pierce Brosnan 21.30% - I'm-a Wario 15.70% - SMRPG 14.99%
Status:
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 9:01:37 PM | message detail
Man, GoldenEye totally makes up for last round's meh performance. FFVII will obviously skyrocket from here though.

Disappointed in MK64 here though.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 9:01:50 PM | message detail
I thought MK64 would be doing better

Also lol FFVII's board vote.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVII > GoldenEye 007 Points: 121/176