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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 714

red sox 777 | Posted 5/13/2009 9:06:56 PM | message detail
FFVI isn't even doing badly relative to Sonic and MKII, it's just that Link's Awakening is doing really really well. Should change a lot once the board vote wears off though.
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ZFS | Posted 5/13/2009 9:07:15 PM | message detail
Agreein' with Lopen here, though may not as extreme. I think this is going to even out once we get further away from this early vote. FFVI shouldn't end up being too far back from where it was last round. No one should have really expected it to do worlds better here, there was no reason to think last round was a fluke or anything. LA is legit.

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/13/2009 9:07:39 PM | message detail
I still think this is more of LA's strength than FFVI's weakness.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 9:08:27 PM | message detail
And I don't think MKII is getting Last Place Factor'd. It's just facing three franchises much bigger than it is.

Maybe you consider that Last Place Factor'd, but I think it's ridiculous to automatically chalk it up to that. MKII did well due to a lack of competition last round perhaps.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/13/2009 9:08:32 PM | message detail
I'm not able to write-off Sonic 2 just yet, even if LA has a 126 vote lead over it. I expected it to get the board vote and it will only be dropping off from here. I'm also confident in EUROPEFEAR pulling through for Sonic.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
Nyah | Posted 5/13/2009 9:08:36 PM | message detail
the 4chan bump goes to s metroid haha
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"If truly there is evil in this world it lurks in the hearts of man" -- Edward D. Morrison
transients | Posted 5/13/2009 9:08:38 PM | message detail
yeah, LA is pretty good. I woulda taken Majora's Mask over it without thinking -- my bad.

dumb five minute snap opinions -- Mario World > FF4 and Pokemon RBY as a top 10 game
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xyzzy
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/13/2009 9:08:55 PM | message detail
last round, Link's Awakening went from 30.55% after the 5-minute mark to 31.35% at the end
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Today's prediction: Mog 35.67% - Awakening 27.96% - Sonic 2 21.54% - Mortal Kombat 14.83%
Status:
creativename | Posted 5/13/2009 9:09:03 PM | message detail
Not like it probably matters much, but LA's pic is uber.

I've never played the game and I had an urge to vote for it.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/13/2009 9:09:25 PM | message detail
FF7 is lucky this isn't a 1v1 contest, because I'm convinced OoT could beat it.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 9:10:24 PM | message detail
Of course OoT could beat it. It won't, but it could.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/13/2009 9:10:27 PM | message detail
Now that's more like it. This is going to go about exactly how last round's match did.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ZFS | Posted 5/13/2009 9:10:27 PM | message detail
Yep. As expected.

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a metal slime appears
transients | Posted 5/13/2009 9:10:27 PM | message detail
there we go, that's more like it.

MK2 gettin' killed here, but it has a hideous board vote so that's not that unexpected
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xyzzy
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/13/2009 9:10:33 PM | message detail
Ha, looks like FF6 is fine.
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hey look i'm war and i'm stupid - WVI
redrocket | Posted 5/13/2009 9:10:35 PM | message detail
"whoops"

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From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 9:10:39 PM | message detail
And man, that was some board vote. FFVI in the clear.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/13/2009 9:10:39 PM | message detail
so much for that lol
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg
MegatokyoEd | Posted 5/13/2009 9:10:39 PM | message detail
And... Link's Awakening dies.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/13/2009 9:10:54 PM | message detail
Talk about epic fall by LA...

Also MKII boosted...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
xp1337 | Posted 5/13/2009 9:10:59 PM | message detail
FF7 is lucky this isn't a 1v1 contest, because I'm convinced OoT could beat it.

I'm still holding out that we get that run as a 1v1 as a bonus match after the contest. I would have taken OoT if we had a 1v1 contest, and I want to see how that would have turned out.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/13/2009 9:10:59 PM | message detail
aah, it did go down
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Today's prediction: Mog 35.67% - Awakening 27.96% - Sonic 2 21.54% - Mortal Kombat 14.83%
Status:
Master Moltar | Posted 5/13/2009 9:11:24 PM | message detail
business as usual

next
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 38 - Bracket: FF6 > MMX - Vote: Sonic 2 (115/168)
Gr8CyberMonkey | Posted 5/13/2009 9:11:27 PM | message detail
That was five more minutes of suspense than I thought we would get.
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The question to everyone's answer.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/13/2009 9:11:28 PM | message detail
LA sucks if it only got a 55 vote gain over Sonic 2.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 9:11:32 PM | message detail
Heh, FFVI gained 104 votes in 5 minutes, and went from 52% to 55%.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/13/2009 9:11:41 PM | message detail
And I don't think MKII is getting Last Place Factor'd. It's just facing three franchises much bigger than it is.

Maybe you consider that Last Place Factor'd, but I think it's ridiculous to automatically chalk it up to that. MKII did well due to a lack of competition last round perhaps.


That's pretty much what Last Place Factor is. Anyway, FFVI is out to almost a 6% lead now. Things looking much more normal.
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Lopen | Posted 5/13/2009 9:12:24 PM | message detail
Did I not just call that.

Link's Awakening finishes below 27% bank on it.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/13/2009 9:12:31 PM | message detail
FF7 is lucky this isn't a 1v1 contest, because I'm convinced OoT could beat it.

I'd probably go with Ocarina as well, but as an upset pick. I don't think it got enough credit for that beastly Round 1 performance. I found it stronger looking than VII's, although will probably look more impressive as the competition grows stronger.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 9:13:47 PM | message detail
That's pretty much what Last Place Factor is.

So basically any game that gets last place is Last Place Factor'd.

Then what's the point of the term?
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/13/2009 9:13:49 PM | message detail
If anyone cares the original Mortal Kombat got 26.92% in 2004...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 9:14:42 PM | message detail
Besides, I'd say MKII overperformed in round 1 before I say it's underperforming here. Regardless of what you want to think, SFII and MKII are not on equal footing.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 9:15:41 PM | message detail
Whoa, Sonic 2 bomb.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/13/2009 9:15:51 PM | message detail
VI/LA seems to be stabilizing.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
red sox 777 | Posted 5/13/2009 9:16:06 PM | message detail
So basically any game that gets last place is Last Place Factor'd.

Then what's the point of the term?


The point is that the last place game often ends up looking worse than it would be extrapolated to. I mean, there's nothing remarkable about MKII being in last here, the remarkable thing is how far behind Sonic 2 it is. Although, it's still early and that is still subject to change.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
creativename | Posted 5/13/2009 9:16:12 PM | message detail
Besides, I'd say MKII overperformed in round 1 before I say it's underperforming here.

What? MK2's performance was fine in round 1. Yeah SF2>MK2 probably but not by truckloads.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/13/2009 9:16:14 PM | message detail
FF6 got about 43% on LA first round. Its currently at 45% on it but I bet it'll get down to 43%
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/13/2009 9:16:17 PM | message detail
Alright, Sonic sucked big time on that time. Not good.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
KingBartz | Posted 5/13/2009 9:17:10 PM | message detail
wow LA doesn't even have a chance to place 1st anymore.
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Check out my Guru bracket: http://www.thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=60
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 5/13/2009 9:17:13 PM | message detail
15 people fell off the Top 50 today. XxSoulxX2, paulg235, Ludwig_Von_6, RBZelenka, Tendo128, stu300189, Naveplayer, metroidcomposit, RedWingDuck, GreyMetalDuck, PorkmanDeLardo, MadGamer_11, seniorchumchum, MittRomney2012 and lololesecond did not have LoZ:aLttP > SM as yesterday's winners.

16 people scored half points and lived. Tirofog, K1lr0y, MajinZidane, JayLabPrime, realseniorleach, FinalFantasyVIl, Xcarvengerx, Jericoholic913, mentalmike_2000, xcamel24, Dracosage, bgbball31, Gaddswell, Takfloyd_mkII__, destrian522 and Gigaduckman also did not have LoZ:aLttP > SM as yesterday's winners.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/13/2009 9:18:00 PM | message detail
What? MK2's performance was fine in round 1. Yeah SF2>MK2 probably but not by truckloads.

Not when Sonic is apparently hated on GameFAQs, what are they going to vote for? Secret of Mana? There's a reason why that match had one of the lowest vote totals.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
creativename | Posted 5/13/2009 9:19:00 PM | message detail
Oh and FF7 was always beatable.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/13/2009 9:19:16 PM | message detail
Not to mention the majority of the shining force 2 votes (however small) woulda went to sonic if it wasnt there
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 9:19:29 PM | message detail
It was a "Who do you vote for if you don't like Sonic?" thing, I think. MKII is the only option for a lot of people.

And then a lot chose not to vote because they like neither option.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/13/2009 9:19:31 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #242
Oh and FF7 was always beatable.


by only operation shadow
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 9:20:41 PM | message detail
Looks like LA isn't going to finish far off what it got last round.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/13/2009 9:20:56 PM | message detail
Oy Sonic
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
charmander6000 | Posted 5/13/2009 9:21:09 PM | message detail
Sonic 2 is just dying right now.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
creativename | Posted 5/13/2009 9:23:21 PM | message detail
Other than MK2 getting LPFd this match is completely expected. Another boring match it seems.

LA's pic is the best thing about this match.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/13/2009 9:23:34 PM | message detail
I have a theory that LA is doing very good because the name of the game has "Link" in it. With Link being our greatest contest god, you can imagine that people will vote for anything that says "Link" or has "Link" in the name.

Let's go back and take a look at last year's bonus match. Classic Link broke 60%, but it's also worth noting that Classic Link's picture said "Link" under it instead of "Classic". If it wasn't for the "Link" under Classic Link's picture, I don't think Classic Link would have broken 60%. To prove this, suppose a Link/Cloud match was hosted as a bonus match of sorts. But there's a twist: The match picture will say "Cloud" below Link's picture and "Link" below Cloud's picture. My bold prediction is that Cloud wins because his match picture says "Link" below it and people will vote for Cloud, thinking it's Link instead.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!