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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 714

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/14/2009 5:03:28 PM | message detail
I think 70/30 is very possible. If they get pictures that make it abundantly clear that RBY is the Charizard/Blastoise/Mewtwo one and GSC is the one with Pokemon far fewer people remember, I think it could be even worse.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/14/2009 5:05:10 PM | message detail
Starcraft's chances are much better than MM's because FFIX will probably stand up to FFVIII much better than GS stands up to RBY, FFVIII didn't beat it as badly last round, MM also has overlap with RBY and GS, and finally, because it's Starcraft, and if it's within a couple thousand....it has huge rallying power.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 5:05:51 PM | message detail
That's not true because StarCraft doesn't have overlap to deal with. Majora's Mask does.

Objection, everyone knows Pokemon/Zelda have no overlap or are you trying to downplay RBY's performance? Some people will have your head for that you know.

Though on a serious note, MM had Perfect Dark and Banjo-Kazooie while Starcraft had Xenogears weakening FFVIII.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 5:06:37 PM | message detail
Also RBY/GS will have a lot more overlap than FFVIII/FFIX.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/14/2009 5:08:25 PM | message detail
Uh...every game in that poll had overlap. RBY jhad a lot less, yeah, but it was there.

Overlap is still overlap, though, and MM already has an incredibly uphill battle to fight. I wouldn't pick it to advance if it stood out completely.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/14/2009 5:08:35 PM | message detail
Granted, I'm hoping they split as evenly as possible, which would be far more likely if they get identical looking gameplay pics (because both games look the same, IIRC), but I don't see that happening realistically.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/14/2009 5:09:30 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-39.jpg

HAY GUYZ I'M BACK LOL
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/14/2009 5:09:55 PM | message detail
HAY GUYZ VOTE FOR ME PLZ

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/14/2009 5:10:44 PM | message detail
XD, beautiful.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 5:11:59 PM | message detail
Uh...every game in that poll had overlap. RBY jhad a lot less, yeah, but it was there.

Apparently you weren't here during the RBY could take on the top six debate.

Overlap is still overlap, though, and MM already has an incredibly uphill battle to fight. I wouldn't pick it to advance if it stood out completely.

Starcraft has no chance even Solid Snake only went from 43% to 50% against Cloud when Sephiroth was added. The gap is too big plus Xenogears was their weakening FFVIII a bit in round 1.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
red sox 777 | Posted 5/14/2009 5:13:13 PM | message detail
Zolom = FFVII goes for 60% book it.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 5:13:52 PM | message detail
****

their = there

can't believe I made that mistake.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/14/2009 5:15:12 PM | message detail
Putting Zolom in the same match as Coud was the biggest travesty these contests have ever seen.
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:(
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 5:15:57 PM | message detail
GoldenEye is doomed. All the rest look great.

FFVII for 60%
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/14/2009 5:17:12 PM | message detail
That Goldeneye pic is great, what are you talking about.

He has body armor, even!

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/14/2009 5:29:18 PM | message detail
yes zolom!
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http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg
HaRRicH | Posted 5/14/2009 5:45:45 PM | message detail
Haha, not everybody will like my GE pic (and at the time, I forgot it's very similar to the R1-pic...whoops), but I think it's pretty cool. Anyway, I think all of them look good, though I think MK64's pic is the one looking worse than the rest.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
Ngamer64 | Posted 5/14/2009 6:22:53 PM | message detail
Dissing the GE pic, wha? That's the most iconic look imaginable for a James Bond property, plus it's got the health and body armor advantage this time that everyone remembers so well from multi.

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creativename | Posted 5/14/2009 6:39:57 PM | message detail
Zolom could've been one of the best joke entrants we've ever seen. He got royally screwed, it was indeed a travesty.

GoldenEye has a terrific pic.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/14/2009 6:41:00 PM | message detail
I would have flipped if Goldeneye got a Boris pic.

I AM INVINCIBLE.
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 5/14/2009 6:53:05 PM | message detail
Where is Mallow? :(
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Mr3790 | Posted 5/14/2009 6:53:23 PM | message detail
I learned one thing today:

Sonic 2 is so weak.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/14/2009 6:54:33 PM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEaL8HqufFI

Little Mac for SC2k9?

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 7:14:04 PM | message detail
Anyway, I think all of them look good, though I think MK64's pic is the one looking worse than the rest.

For MK64 fans, that's a solid pic, although it would've been better if it were a pic of someone getting hit by the train.

darn you kalimari desert train
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 7:16:51 PM | message detail
Kalimari Desert, the place where I can win by half a lap or barely get fourth place.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
Vagabond_Cookie | Posted 5/14/2009 7:22:42 PM | message detail
I wish people would remake games BESIDES the Pokemon series and FF.
Seriously, Pokemon just CAN'T keep it in their pants, can they?
Every nine months, SOMETHING new. And I have too many caps words.
Damn.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 7:28:08 PM | message detail
They both sell well, besides every game that was great and sold well in the last 10 years has been remade one way or another.

Except Final Fantasy VII...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/14/2009 7:29:54 PM | message detail
Okay, I'm confused as to how those vote total stats have Perfect Dark ahead of Fallout 3. I know for sure that Fallout 3 managed about 3k more votes in its poll than Majora's Mask did. Of course, there are probably many loopholes, but nothing that didn't make sense according to the vote totals has come up this contest (aside from maybe Sonic 2 losing so badly, but Mortal Kombat II could be LFFing it).

Finally, I did forget about the possibility of Super Mario RPG benefitting from STF because the other games were all released in 1997. Same Year SFF may look like a shady theory, but the way Final Fantasy IV and Super Mario Kart did prompts me into thinking that it exists.

All the same though, the number of people who prefer Final Fantasy VII over GoldenEye isn't that huge. Same with GoldenEye over Mario Kart 64, for some reason.

And the match pic is cool. Here's what I'd put for match pic for the match afterwards (how do you submit match pics anyway?)

Super Mario 64 - Rainbow Ride, or the title screen, or Mario looking at the castle, or a random pic of Mario getting a star
Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - Any boss battle, or the part where Alucard loses his stuff to the Grim Reaper (yay Metroid parody)
Chrono Trigger - The final boss (that's Lavos, right?), or the fair at the beginning of the game
Yoshi's Island - Any boss battle, or somewhere from level one or an underground level
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/14/2009 7:36:00 PM | message detail
(how do you submit match pics anyway?)

This is the form to upload a match pic:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/contribute/submit_contest_image.php
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/14/2009 7:45:51 PM | message detail
Okay, I'm confused as to how those vote total stats have Perfect Dark ahead of Fallout 3. I know for sure that Fallout 3 managed about 3k more votes in its poll than Majora's Mask did.

My V-stats involve subtracting 95,000 from the total votes in the match, and dividing the remaining votes proportionally among the games according to their percentage. I think the end result is decidedly better than just looking at each game's absolute votals and ignoring what competition they had, but those stats are still not very useful. They tell us nothing that years of accumulated common sense do not.
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/14/2009 7:46:05 PM | message detail
Of SMRPG, MK64, and Goldeneye, which one will hurt SM64 the most/least next round?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/14/2009 7:48:25 PM | message detail
I'd say Mario Kart. Same system, and unlike Goldeneye, same series. Mario RPG is the same series as well, but at least it lets SM64 go in as the only non-RPG.
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/14/2009 7:49:10 PM | message detail
MK64 the most...and probably GE for least, though I do think they'll bother each other.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 7:50:49 PM | message detail
Of SMRPG, MK64, and Goldeneye, which one will hurt SM64 the most/least next round?

This is a tough one, while MK64 will probably have the largest overlap, though most of those votes would go to SM64. On the other hand GoldenEye has the smallest overlap, but will probably hold out better. I'm going to go with SMRPG, for the happy medium.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
red sox 777 | Posted 5/14/2009 7:51:52 PM | message detail
I'd go with Mario Kart 64. SMRPG will overlap too much with CT and FFVII, and Goldeneye shouldn't overlap as closely.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/14/2009 7:53:32 PM | message detail
Mario Kart 64 would probably hurt Super Mario 64 the most.

And just for complete silliness, I count the games from one console that made it into the contest. First off, the NES.

Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!!
Mega Man 2
Duck Hunt
Ninja Gaiden
Super Mario Bros.
Dragon Quest III (yeah, I like using Japanese names for some reason)
Contra
Metroid
The Legend of Zelda
Castlevania III
Super Mario Bros. 3
Tecmo Super Bowl
Battletoads
Final Fantasy
Crystalis
Mega Man 3
River City Ransom

More than half of them were eliminated in round 1. Go figure. Also, WHERE THE HELL IS BIONIC COMMANDO???
MetricTrout | Posted 5/14/2009 7:58:18 PM | message detail
Personally, I would say SMRPG (not that it has a chance of advancing) is the most beneficial to SM64. While it is also a Mario game, it also shares similarities to Chrono Trigger in being a RPG for the SNES.

Between Mario Kart and Goldeneye, though, it is a tough call. Mario Kart has a greater overlap, but there is a good chance that it will just get SFFed straight into the ground, Mega Man 3 style. Goldeneye should hold up fairly well, though it will not hurt SM64 as much in proportion to the other games.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 8:01:07 PM | message detail
More than half of them were eliminated in round 1. Go figure. Also, WHERE THE HELL IS BIONIC COMMANDO???

What? You wanted more fodder?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
MetricTrout | Posted 5/14/2009 8:07:34 PM | message detail
Is Tetris not an NES game or something?
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 8:08:56 PM | message detail
Match XXXIX: GoldenEye 007 vs. Super Mario RPG vs. Final Fantasy VII vs. Mario Kart 64

Last Round:

GoldenEye 007 – 35.97%
Super Mario RPG – 31.73%
Resident Evil 2 – 23.07%
Donkey Kong Country 2 – 23.07%

Final Fantasy VII – 55.05%
Mario Kart 64 – 23.57%
Star Fox 64 – 14.51%
Suikoden – 6.87%

Analysis

Returning to my two favourite eras we are introduced to a Mario killing frenzy due to having so many games so close to each other. All four may have reached the second round, but it is likely that only one will reach the division final. I guess it’s fair since nine out of ten went to the second round and eight of those nine were in this half division.

Even with no fanbase overlap Final Fantasy VII would have still rocked this four-pack. Final Fantasy VII performed well enough that it doesn’t really have to worry about losing until the finals, though even before the contest that was more or less the same idea. Breaking 50% could be possible because of the overlap, though based on the competition it could fail even that.

GoldenEye’s performance last round had mixed reactions; it showed that it was probably SFF by Ocarina of Time though it also isn’t a top 10 game like the list showed. I’m not too sure why people believed it was a top 10 game when Halo was ninth in that same list. Anyways with the two Mario games killing each other off GoldenEye more or less has a free pass to the division finals. It will be interesting to see if a Nintendo 64 game that is not Super Mario 64 or Ocarina of Time would affect GoldenEye’s performance.

The fight between the two Mario games will be interesting. Mario Kart 64 almost getting 30% against Final Fantasy VII despite Star Fox 64 was pretty amazing. If Super Mario RPG wasn’t in the same match I would consider taking Mario Kart 64 over GoldenEye. Back to the match at hand, Mario Kart 64 is the favourite for third. After its performance last round and Super Mario Kart’s performance against Super Metroid it seems fair. The only thing stopping it would be some console SFF done by GoldenEye.

Super Mario RPG did well last round even without Mario Kart 64 it wouldn’t have a chance at advancing. I don’t believe that one of the Mario games will be pummelled to the ground as both Mario games appeal to different audiences in the Mario fanbase. Sure there will be LFF, but seeing one of these Mario games doubling the other will be surprising.

The interesting part of this contest is that each round it starts off slow, in terms of vote totals, builds up as the round goes then dies off near the end of the round. Also out of the divisions this seems to be the easiest to predict. It’s a shame that four great games get to face off while weaker games in easier divisions just coast right through.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Final Fantasy VII > GoldenEye 007

charmander6000’s Prediction: Final Fantasy VII – 48.78%, GoldenEye 007 – 20.43%, Mario Kart 64 – 16.83%, Super Mario RPG – 13.96%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 8:09:40 PM | message detail
Is Tetris not an NES game or something?

It is, but it's more remembered as a Gameboy game.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/14/2009 8:19:01 PM | message detail
Uhm yeah, I wanted more fodder. I don't care about the games' strength as much as the games themselves.

Okay, let's see how the SNES did in getting games into the competition.

Super Mario World
Final Fantasy IV
Super Mario Kart
Super Metroid
Donkey Kong Country
Zelda: A Link to the Past
Final Fantasy VI
Mega Man X
Secret of Mana
Donkey Kong Country 2
Super Mario RPG
Kirby Super Star
Chrono Trigger
EarthBound
Lufia II
Yoshi's Island

More than half of these games advanced to round 2. It must also be noted that Street Fighter II, SimCity, and Mortal Kombat II could also be counted here (SimCity was a launch title in fact).
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/14/2009 8:36:10 PM | message detail
I hope Mario Kart 64 pulls it off somehow...
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/14/2009 8:37:24 PM | message detail
On a side note, I hope Mario Kart 64 doesn't pull it off somehow.

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DoomtheGrav | Posted 5/14/2009 8:37:41 PM | message detail
?!
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={D
ZFS | Posted 5/14/2009 8:38:03 PM | message detail
Mario RPG second best game in the poll tbqh

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/14/2009 8:38:19 PM | message detail
I hope Final Fantasy VII goes higher than it did last round.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/14/2009 8:38:38 PM | message detail
I'd love it if both GoldenEye and Mario Kart 64 made it to the next round.

I'm having problems deciding which one to vote for.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: FFVI > Sonic 2 Points: 117/168
ZFS | Posted 5/14/2009 8:38:43 PM | message detail
play dragon quest

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DoomtheGrav | Posted 5/14/2009 8:38:50 PM | message detail
>_>
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={D