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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 714

UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/13/2009 4:35:13 PM | message detail
This is the worst close match of all time.



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.

Hochi's League of Excellence™

Hochiminh

Black Turtle
Nintendogirl
Karma Hunter
Kleenex
Leonhart
Ultimaterializer
ZFS
Lopen
Yoblazer
Harrich
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 6:23:42 PM | message detail
This is the worst close match of all time.

Not if Super Mario Kart wins!
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transients | Posted 5/13/2009 6:32:50 PM | message detail
alright, I have to ask - why is that league of excellence thing in the first post

and if you're gonna say I'm jealous that I'm not on it, I'm not!
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xyzzy
MnMZero | Posted 5/13/2009 6:33:29 PM | message detail
mnm transience league of excellence

mnm
transience
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Currently playing: GTAIV, SSBB, MP3, Apollo Justice, FFIVDS, Dracula X
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/13/2009 6:37:02 PM | message detail
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transients | Posted 5/13/2009 6:37:19 PM | message detail
don't mess with the excellence of mnmsience
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 6:39:14 PM | message detail
You're jealous that you're not on it!
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MadGamer_11 | Posted 5/13/2009 6:41:00 PM | message detail
I feel I deserve to be on it....
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"To be forgotten is worse than death"-Freya FFIX
Pokemon Platinum FC: 1333 3631 7192 Name : Alex
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 7:41:26 PM | message detail
...
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Lopen | Posted 5/13/2009 7:41:36 PM | message detail
Best final post I've seen in a while, Leon.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
ZFS | Posted 5/13/2009 7:41:53 PM | message detail
best fictional character bail out


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Gr8CyberMonkey | Posted 5/13/2009 7:42:26 PM | message detail
Best Fictional Character, cross promoted with other CBS Interactive sites would be awesome.
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The question to everyone's answer.
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/13/2009 7:43:00 PM | message detail
Previous Poll | List of All Polls | Next Poll

New links were added to the poll results page. The "Next Poll" link doesn't show up on the poll results page for the current poll going on right now. The "Previous Poll" link doesn't show up for poll 1 and the negative numbered polls.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/13/2009 7:44:02 PM | message detail
I had an idea but decided it definitely wasn't gonna work out.

Most Innovative Game Ever.

Problem with that is that's got CT/FF7 written all over it.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 7:44:41 PM | message detail
Most innovative game ever = Most popular game ever
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pxlated | Posted 5/13/2009 7:44:46 PM | message detail
i've never actually read one of these before.

huh
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spiraling up through the crack in the sky
leaving material world behind
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 7:45:03 PM | message detail
Seriously, anything here will wind up being a popularity contest, so trying to do themes like that won't work.
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Lopen | Posted 5/13/2009 7:45:24 PM | message detail
I think a character vs game contest would be hilarious.

Final Fantasy VII vs Link who ya got.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 7:45:44 PM | message detail
How do you even vote in something like that?
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ZFS | Posted 5/13/2009 7:45:57 PM | message detail
Yeah. Most Innovative Game will just end up being people's favorite games that had any kind of impact, which means FFVII vs. OoT final!

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ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/13/2009 7:46:08 PM | message detail
Yeah, if we ever did "strongest character ever" Link would probably beat KOS-MOS in round 1 with 75%.
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
xp1337 | Posted 5/13/2009 7:46:51 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/13/2009 7:46:55 PM | message detail
Mario would probably slaughter Lenneth
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/13/2009 7:47:01 PM | message detail
75% is undershooting, Zen.

Best Fictional Character is probably the only good idea left.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
Lopen | Posted 5/13/2009 7:47:16 PM | message detail
How do you even vote in something like that?

Who knows! That's the beauty of it!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 7:47:32 PM | message detail
Mario would probably slaughter Lenneth

Of course! How do you stop Starman Mario!!!!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/13/2009 7:47:43 PM | message detail
4 straight gains for mario kart

it so has this
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
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ZFS | Posted 5/13/2009 7:47:50 PM | message detail
You don't vote for the character, that's for sure !

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xp1337 | Posted 5/13/2009 7:48:10 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy VII vs Link who ya got.

Link has been shown capable of inflicting SFF himself from that bonus poll, FF7 wins because Link causes LFF on himself in a 1v1 match. Indirectly, Link has got that.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
Lopen | Posted 5/13/2009 7:48:43 PM | message detail
I'd vote for Dante over most games in this bracket I'm just sayin.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/13/2009 7:48:44 PM | message detail
4 straight gains for mario kart

it so has this


Those are very small gains. If it wants to lock up this match, it needs to make big gains.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
creativename | Posted 5/13/2009 7:48:46 PM | message detail
Of course! How do you stop Starman Mario!!!!

Easy. Blow up the ground in front of him to make a 20-foot pit. Insta-death.
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gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 7:49:05 PM | message detail
what
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/13/2009 7:49:23 PM | message detail
We don't NEED some insane new idea. A well-done 1v1 games contest will always be good, since new games come out every year that people care about. Characters go stale much quicker.

if you all hate the contests now, why do you still follow it then. if they suck so much, shouldn't you go spend your time doing something that doesnt suck?

They're still fun, they're just not as fun as they could be.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
ZFS | Posted 5/13/2009 7:49:25 PM | message detail
Haha, creative wins

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a metal slime appears
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/13/2009 7:50:20 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 5/13/2009 10:47:32 PM | #026
Mario would probably slaughter Lenneth

Of course! How do you stop Starman Mario!!!!


You pause as Player 2 as Mario jumps over a big pit. I used to piss people off with this all the time.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 7:50:32 PM | message detail
We need a one-on-one Game of the Decade Contest next year!
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/13/2009 7:50:36 PM | message detail
Match XXXVIII: Final Fantasy III (VI) vs. LoZ: Link’s Awakening vs. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 vs. Mortal Kombat II

Last Round:

Final Fantasy III (VI) – 40.05%
LoZ: Link’s Awakening – 31.35%
Mega Man X – 24.63%
Phantasy Star IV – 3.97%

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 – 37.32%
Mortal Kombat II – 30.10%
Secret of Mana – 26.08%
Shining Force II – 6.49%

Analysis

After the all Nintendo brawl we get treated to games from different fanbases, though it seems that we are in store for one of the most boring matches of the division. I don’t see any game having trouble placing in first, second or third and will be in no danger of being defeated in an upset. One good thing in four-ways is that there is usually a close or interesting match in each match.

Despite not being as impressive as we thought Final Fantasy VI should have no trouble dealing with these three games. I do however think that people are being a bit tough on the game. Sure Link’s Awakening got closer than what most thought, but it did defeat Mega Man X pretty handily and will probably do the same to Sonic 2 tonight. I think people don’t want to give Link’s Awakening the proper credit and we won’t really know Final Fantasy VI’s true strength because the next two rounds will contain LFF.

After last round Link’s Awakening should take second rather easily. While people tried to use the handheld excuse to say why it would be weak, the opposite proved to be true. While people tried to downplay its performance by calling Final Fantasy VI weak the game did destroy Mega Man X last round so maybe it does have strength. Link’s Awakening will prove its strength here by easily defeating Sonic 2.

While I have Sonic 2 in my bracket I don’t have much faith in my pick, not after Link’s Awakening’s performance. The sad thing about my overestimation of Sonic is that the only game I didn’t overestimate was Sonic 1 and it will be the only one making it to round 3. The only thing worth watching here is to see whether or not Sonic 2 can out do Mega Man X in an indirect match.

Mortal Kombat II will take last overall. While some people think it could steal third from Sonic 2 I don’t believe that will happen. Super Mario Bros. 3 was unable to do anything to the original Sonic game so why would a handheld Zelda game do anything to Sonic 2? Still like last round Mortal Kombat II won’t be crushed, though it should be interesting to see how much stronger the second game is compare to the first, even if Final Fantasy VI seems a bit weaker.

I don’t have much interest in this match. None of the games will be close to each other and the results in this match probably won’t affect my judgement for future rounds. It’s a good thing I actually like these games or I would’ve ignored this match like Fallout 3/Halo 3.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Final Fantasy III (VI) > LoZ: Link’s Awakening

charmander6000’s Prediction: Final Fantasy III (VI) – 35.54%, LoZ: Link’s Awakening – 27.65%, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 – 20.43%, Mortal Kombat II – 16.38%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ: LttP > Sonic 3 Points: 113/160
xp1337 | Posted 5/13/2009 7:50:36 PM | message detail
Those are very small gains. If it wants to lock up this match, it needs to make big gains.

If the trends from Round 1 hold up, it doesn't, because SMK won the last hour. Not sure that they do just yet though.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/13/2009 7:50:37 PM | message detail
....god dammit, creative
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/13/2009 7:50:58 PM | message detail
Another idea i had.

Most Unusual Game Ever.

Problem with that is that we may dig up alot of games that are rather questionable if you know what i mean.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 7:51:20 PM | message detail
Hey, is that Custer's Revenge I see there

Bail
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/13/2009 7:53:04 PM | message detail
I would have very little interest in a best fictional character contest. I don't care about Gamefaqs' opinions on fictional characters; I do care about Gamefaqs' opinions on video games.

Anyway, I think part of what made the 2004 Games Contest so great was that we got a varied, interesting, and deserving final four: Final Fantasy VII, Chrono Trigger, Super Mario Bros. 3, and Super Smash Bros. Melee. 2 Nintendo games and 2 Square games, and yet only 1 from either Final Fantasy or Zelda. All of these games are generally respected and this final four made the contest seem credible (L-Block did the exact opposite), in a way that FF/Zelda rolling over everything wouldn't have. Expanding out to the elite eight, we add 3 Zelda games (eliminated on 3 consecutive days) and Starcraft, quite possibly the most entertaining contestant we've ever seen in a contest.

If we had gotten the all-Zelda final four instead, I think the 2004 contest would probably be remembered as one of our worse contests.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/13/2009 7:53:28 PM | message detail
One day a Board 8er will become the head admin. It may be the year 2135 or something, but it will happen, and then we will get all contests all the time.
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/13/2009 7:53:31 PM | message detail
Ocarina would still win that contest somehow.

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/13/2009 7:53:45 PM | message detail
And Albion, I have spent a lot of time doing other things. There have been a ton of matches where I go off, do something else and don't bother watching until the end. This used to never happen.

Like right now. We have a match within 50 votes, and I'd rather go play ****ty-ass pub Dota than see how the match ends. There's something horribly wrong when a format sucks away any and all tension from a match that used to fill 5 stat topics like a horse race.
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/13/2009 7:54:18 PM | message detail
Ocarina would still win that contest somehow.

How do you beat a game where the main character cross-dresses and they talk about castrating a guy!!!!
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/13/2009 7:54:22 PM | message detail

From: ZenOfThunder | Posted: 5/13/2009 10:53:28 PM | #044
One day a Board 8er will become the head admin. It may be the year 2135 or something, but it will happen, and then we will get all contests all the time.


Is it sad that buying GameFAQs is one of the things I'd do if I ever became stupidly rich?
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"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/13/2009 7:54:54 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 5/13/2009 10:54:22 PM | #048
Is it sad that buying GameFAQs is one of the things I'd do if I ever became stupidly rich?


It's sad that I probably would too.
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(|| ' ' ||) Not changing my sig until EBA2/Ouendan 3 is announced. (4/22/08)
. /|_|\ http://imgcake.com/img/40/all_eba.jpg
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 5/13/2009 7:55:06 PM | message detail
A tag team will just have people voting for their favorite of the four.

Even if they do (And that's not guaranteed at all), you'd still be getting different results. Link/Crono could have lost to Cloud/Snake last year if everyone voted that way. Vincent/Crono could have edged out Samus/Pikachu. And I'm sure there would have been plenty of other good matches. Throw in people who vote for 2 characters they like instead of just one and it gets quite unpredictable.

You could also team them up with reverse nominations. Top character gets the last one, second gets the second-to-last and so on. Potential for a lot of good first round matches that way.
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FastFalcon and Solid Snake snapped my neck in the guru contest.