GameFAQs Contests

Because Ulti got jealous that I was ranked higher in hochi's League of Excellence and took me off

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.

Hochi's League of Excellence™

Hochiminh

Black Turtle
Nintendogirl
Karma Hunter
Kleenex
Leonhart
Ultimaterializer
ZFS
Lopen
Yoblazer
Harrich
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http://fc03.deviantart.com/fs14/f/2007/020/b/f/Ariel_by_lolita_art.jpg

I thought a name was missing.

Should have added mine. >_>
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FFIV Points: 105/152

Super Metroid too good

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a metal slime appears

SMK just went up by .15%
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FFIV Points: 105/152

From: ZFS | #003
Super Metroid too good

And just as you said that, SMK cut!
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg

Ok, serious question time. Who is supposedly saying FFIV is a strong game? All I'm seeing is people saying it could advance next round by taking advantage of an LFF situation, that's not at all the same as saying that it's some power house.

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From his looks Magus is Macho Man Randy Savage as an anime zombie. The black wind howls, and one of you will snap into a Slim Jim ooh yeeeah! -sonicblastpunch

Even i don't see FF4 as being that strong a game.

But that doesn't mean its just a midcarder either, but i just dont see it as basically top 10 games of all time, more like the 16th.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus

I don't see FFIV as the new WoW as far as discussion goes. We've talked about FF4 for.....1 day? Every game gets talked about plenty the day of its match. We've talked about RBY more than that, but it shouldn't be strange that nearly everyone's star of the round gets talked about a lot either.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

SMK just went up another 0.13%, what's going on here?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FFIV Points: 105/152

its the mario kart stuffers again
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg

Don't think anyone is calling for FFIV to be a powerhouse. I think it's stronger than FF1 by a fair bit, the same FF1 that's proven itself to be a strong game in the past, but I wouldn't put it in the top 15. If round 1 was any indication, though, I can definitely see it being top 20, unless SMW/FF1 was a fluke, then who knows.

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a metal slime appears

Night vote = Mario Kart time
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

I figured that Mario Kart would have casual support votes, but this overnight cut is rather unusual.

Like i said in an earlier contest topic, expect the unexpected.

I really do hope Metroid advances though, I don't want Samus to be forgotten so soon.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus

The same thing happened last round. The early night vote was Metroid's best time all match, and the late night/Europe vote was Mario Kart's best time all match. Then they basically went even all through the rest of the day.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

This isn't the late night vote.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg

When I said the FFs are close together other than VII I mean excluding XII, I forgot about that game, it's strength isn't worth mentioning. We always knew that was the weakest by a significant margin.

IX would be noticeably weaker than VIII/X certainly but the different wouldn't be huge considering the number of games in the franchise.

And IV isn't a good comparison to WoW or RBY discussion in terms of direction - people around here overrated the other two, and underrate IV. It's like the anti-those games in terms of direction. And like red sox said we really haven't talked about IV that match - people's memories here are damn short. Are people forgetting just how friggin' ridiculously absurdly preposterously much those other two games were talked about? WoW's discussion especially was completely out of proportion to what anyone reasonable should have expected of it. RBY at least deserved discussion, it just got blown out of proportion by people.

And IV is certainly not a top ten game, no one is saying this.

I think it's stronger than FF1 by a fair bit,

I think it's only the teeniest big stronger.
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gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

This isn't the late night vote.

No, but we have already started down the path to there, so it's not strange that Metroid is slowing down.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Are people forgetting just how friggin' ridiculously absurdly preposterously much those other two games were talked about?

oh I remember - it's about about half as much as FF4 has been over the last week or two. I'm looking forward to the match and hope FF4 wins but it has been dissected to death at this point.
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg

whoops wrong account
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xyzzy
http://img.imgcake.com//chewing.jpg

Maybe Dr. Mario gave him the wrong pills and basically made FF4 think FF1 was the main boss.
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"If history is to change, let it change. If the world is to be destroyed, so be it. If my fate is to die, I must simply laugh." -Magus

Oh hey my 122 points put me in the 99th percentile. Neat.

I have Lttp > Super Mario Kart. Could this happen?
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Like an imploding star, like a burning car, my style shines so bright!

oh I remember - it's about about half as much as FF4 has been over the last week or two.

What.

Dear goodness no. Not remotely close.

Also those other two games were talked about when we were ages from their matches - previous match or next match.

On tomororow's match, looks like it should be much flatter than the ones we've been having lately.
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gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery

Okay, so I can't really keep an ignore list if the one sole person ignored still bothers to make topics...I see.


Anyway, it looks like SM's cemented second place, which is a nice change of pace for the series this contest. It's kinda weird to see DKC fall apart now but not last round, too...this format is weird.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

I think SMK still has a chance here. Vote lead is about the same as round 1 now, though SM has a much larger percentage lead this time. On the other hand, SM has dropped off more quickly this round. If the early vote was inflating things, it could still have some trouble.
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FastFalcon and Solid Snake snapped my neck in the guru contest.

Super Metroid is doing slightly worse at this point than it was last round. Advantage SMK?
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.

SM is looking pretty bad right now.
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n.

I thought you were making a joke in the other topic but since you posted it in two places it seems you're not.

The games are drawing about 50% of the vote intake as they were last round so SMK is in a much worse position this time. It should be close this time around.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Shouldn't be close, rather.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

It's making consistent cuts already Lopen, Metroid isn't going to hold. Put that down to SMK taking a large proportion of the day vote here than last time being by far the biggest casual draw today.
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.

It was making consistent cuts last time too at this point. The thing is the cuts are not going to be as large in size as we're dealing with a much smaller vote pool and its initial percentage deficit is higher.

Super Mario Kart winning at this point would be pretty much the most shocking comeback ever given that we just saw it lose in more favorable circumstances last round.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

You're making the assumption the audience split will go exactly the same way as the last round. For one SMK was getting eaten alive by Sonic during the European vote, it won't have that competition this time.

For another it won't have to share it's ASV with Sonic. Sure it has Zelda this time but removing Sonic will no doubt proportionally benefit SMK more than it would Metroid. The split isn't going to be the same.
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.

Additionally you're wrong, SM's lead hadn't even peaked yet this time last round yet it's getting cut already this round. The trends are higher weighted this time in SMK's favour.
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.

You're absolutely right. It's going to make a day vote killing because Sonic has been replaced with the much weaker day vote in THE LEGEND OF ZELDA, my mistake.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

And yes I realize you already brought that up but I don't think you understand. The day-night trends are not more beneficial to Mario Kart this time. LttP > Sonic's day vote. DKC > Gunstar Heroes. Next.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

You'll live to regret those words Lopen. n_n
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.

More hopeless than a 2000 vote comeback from Halo tbqh. Don't be a hypocrite Smurfo.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

How can you even compare a 500 vote comeback WHICH IT ALREADY DID THIS VERY CONTEST to a ridiculous baseless Halo comeback when it was at no point even cutting?
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.

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The Straight Up G
The Palace of Wisdom Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko

The very fact that we've seen this exact vote number comeback fail at higher percentages and votals is the very reason it is more hopeless. At least with Halo, relative strengths of day and night votes was all speculation, and Halo has had a track record of slashing thousands of votes with the daylight hours.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!

Come on Super Metroid ^_^
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Ngamer64: Zylhttp://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/post.php?board=8&topic=49480499o, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me

SM looks like it'll win this easier than last time unless SMK has a better day vote than last time, something that doesn't seem very likely. I was worried about it for a while but now it looks safe.
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yzzyx

Haha, how weird would it be for this match to be close again except with more exaggerated trends than last time? I doubt LoZ:LttP or DKC allows that to happen though, since I'm pretty sure that's unprecedented. This is much more SM's match to lose than last time.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

SM's % against SMK in round 1

3-4: 49.56%
4-5: 48.41%
5-6: 46.73%

SM's % against SMK in round 2

3-4: 48.86%
4-5: 47.61%
5-6: 45.51

Aside from SM's stronger power hour, the match has actually been favoring Kart slightly more than round 1 in that it's been doing better against it in comparison after that time. Whether it'd be enough to actually making a good match if that trend continues, couldn't say.

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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

SMK is trying, but it's probably done here.

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

From: KamikazePotato | Posted: 5/13/2009 6:17:16 AM | #044
SMK is trying, but it's probably done here.

Not really.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

Last night I dreamt I had Super Metroid in my bracket instead of Sonic 3. I had a revelation that just because people think a particular game is the best game in the series doesn't automatically mean that it is the most popular game in a series (Sonic 3&K, DKC2, etc.). I went with my instinct and went with Super Metroid through both rounds. Then I woke up and found out otherwise.
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Proud Supporter of Zero

Wow adding two Nintendo games did nothing to this match. Super Metroid may win by a few hundred more, but you could call that random variation.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FFIV Points: 105/152

Mario Kart totally has this.

Also darn you Flop to the Past you were supposed to get like 55% here.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?

Why would you expect LttP to get 55%? A better estimate should have been 50-51% so it's doing about expected.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FFIV Points: 105/152

Because LttP is awesome, why else.
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This is the kind of **** that allowed the Bhopal incident to happen. 5,000 dead Indians. Want that on your damn conscience, Square apologists?