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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 712

transients | Posted 5/12/2009 5:20:25 PM | message detail
I think FF4/Mario World is a tossup next round, but I can't comprehend Mario World and Mario 3, two of the most played titles on the site, overlapping more than FF1 and FF4. Not everyone has played early FF titles; everyone has played Mario 3 and Mario World.
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xyzzy
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/12/2009 5:20:27 PM | message detail
Sonic will be a non-factor in that match.

Whoa, I'd be way too scared to make such a claim. I'm already thinking Sonic had a wonked out performance yesterday (breaking 31% on Mario 3? Hardly anyone saw that coming.). Now you're going to sandwich "Sonic the Hedgehog" in between two Mario games. You wanna talk about the potential for some crazy stuff. I have no idea if and how it would affect the match, but I wouldn't be surprised if Sonic did something really weird there (in either direction).
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hochiminhX | Posted 5/12/2009 5:20:38 PM | message detail
Mega Man 3 overlaps with FF more than Mario. The proof is the fact that MM is a night game.


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red sox 777 | Posted 5/12/2009 5:21:33 PM | message detail
But MM is strong at the power hour, where Mario is strong, and is awful in the dead zone, where FF is strong!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/12/2009 5:22:15 PM | message detail
I think the Sonic/Mario rivalry has been dead for years, so I don't expect any sort of wonkiness just because it's a Sonic title against two Mario games.
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/12/2009 5:23:20 PM | message detail
In a hypothetical LttP/FF3/FF7/CT matchup, LttP has no chance to advance. If anything, the SFF is going to go FF7's way, not LttP's, given that FF7 is the only 3D game and the only one not on the SNES. The fact that Old Square characters hold up to SFF from New Square characters and their almost polar opposite trends suggest that they are fairly independent fanbases anyway.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/12/2009 5:23:20 PM | message detail
If Sonic overperforms (it might), I doubt it will be at the cost of the Mario games any more than it will be at the cost of FFIV. Nintendo fans aren't about to vote for Sonic over Mario- it'll be Sonic's own fanbase that does that.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/12/2009 5:24:00 PM | message detail
In a hypothetical LttP/FF3/FF7/CT matchup, LttP has no chance to advance.

Oh really?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/12/2009 5:24:25 PM | message detail
Hah, so now we're saying Sonic overlaps the same with Final Fantasy as Super Mario?

Yeah, time to bail on this conversation.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/12/2009 5:25:11 PM | message detail
Okay, you're going with three games that over 90% of the site has played against a game that we're lucky if 70% of the site has played.

Hmmm...
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transients | Posted 5/12/2009 5:25:14 PM | message detail
Sonic doing well (aka not being SFF'd) strikes me as being beneficial to FF4 - FF4 seems guaranteed a certain percentage of votes since it's the only RPG there against three platformers. any votes that Sonic gets are votes that Mario 3 or World would have been likely to get instead.

I hate analyzing these dumb fourways argh
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xyzzy
red sox 777 | Posted 5/12/2009 5:25:15 PM | message detail
No, what I'm saying is there's no reason for any wackiness created by the Mario/Sonic rivalry to hurt Mario more than FF.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/12/2009 5:27:59 PM | message detail
70%? FFX, FFVI, and CT don't have 70% playrates.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/12/2009 5:31:04 PM | message detail
I think very few games outside of the big Marios and Tetris do. Not even Ocarina of Time does according to the 2005 poll, which leads me to believe that nothing outside of the big Marios and Tetris does.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/12/2009 5:31:25 PM | message detail
And I was referring to 90% playrate.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/12/2009 5:36:51 PM | message detail
Ugh, we've gotta wait two weeks until this match?
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/12/2009 5:37:44 PM | message detail
It's okay. There are still plenty of matches to debate that will be over within five minutes until then!

Such as tomorrow's!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/12/2009 5:38:14 PM | message detail
i dont see why ocarina of time not having a 90% playrate is surprising. It was on the losing system of its gen saleswise, so not everyone had the chance to play it compared to NES and SNES titles
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/12/2009 5:39:15 PM | message detail
I don't think there's an interesting match until Division 5. And then from Division 5 onward there's a bunch of interesting matches.

woo generational split

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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/12/2009 5:40:08 PM | message detail
and Mario won only three 15-minute updates against Crono all day.

He probably won more 5 minute updates though.

I can see SMB3 and SMW splitting evenly in Round 3 and FF2 being too weak to capitalize, sort of like Sonic 3 failing to do anything against Smetroid/Mario Kart.

As we are seeing today, same franchise SFF is quite possibly the worst kind of SFF you can have. The two Final Fantasies are killing each other here. As for the upcoming SMB3/SMW match, I don't think the two games will be killing each other to give FFIV first place.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/12/2009 5:40:53 PM | message detail
CT/Mario 64 could be interesting if CT bombs.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/12/2009 5:43:36 PM | message detail
Even if CT bombs, which I wouldn't expect, Yoshi's Island is there to hold Mario 64 back.

If Mario 64 can get close, that would make it look pretty good for the next round, but, like I said, I don't expect that. CT should do pretty well based on its first round match.
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transients | Posted 5/12/2009 5:45:32 PM | message detail
Mario 64 can't touch CT this round.

time to see if some same franchise action can hurt Mario 64 enough to give SOTN a chance (nah)
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/12/2009 5:47:16 PM | message detail
If it does, except a full day of PLAN topics.

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HaRRicH | Posted 5/12/2009 5:47:29 PM | message detail
After seeing MM3 against SMW, I doubt SMW2:YI holds SM64 back much.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/12/2009 5:47:47 PM | message detail
Expect a full day of PLAN topics anyway!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/12/2009 5:49:28 PM | message detail
CT/Mario 64 could be interesting if CT bombs.

Chrono Trigger has already beaten four Mario games. You expect a fifth one to beat it now?

And CT did too well in round 1 to make me entertain the possibility of "bombing," regardless of how well Mario 64 did.
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transients | Posted 5/12/2009 5:49:49 PM | message detail
well, seeing as CT's already stronger than SM64, it can't help!
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/12/2009 5:50:30 PM | message detail
Gah, I forgot that SM64 SFFs SoTN as well. Too much of its strength comes from Alucard Kart.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/12/2009 5:51:01 PM | message detail
All part of the Plan.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/12/2009 5:51:23 PM | message detail
How funny would an SMW > FF4 > Mario 3 result be?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/12/2009 5:52:01 PM | message detail
One of the best games ever losing is never funny.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/12/2009 5:52:16 PM | message detail

From: UltimaterializerX | #281
How funny would an SMW > FF4 > Mario 3 result be?


it would be awesome, though if Mario 3 doesnt place, it would be ff4 > SMW from the massive lff between the mario titles
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/12/2009 5:52:34 PM | message detail
It would be considering SMW is so much better and deserves to be recognized as being so!

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/12/2009 6:01:27 PM | message detail
SMW just doesn't wanna hit that 54% mark
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/12/2009 6:02:06 PM | message detail
How funny would an SMW > FF4 > Mario 3 result be?

It would mean a whole day of Albion laughing at us all. Not that I would mind that!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/12/2009 6:07:52 PM | message detail
Thankfully, smiling Squall is a CG and is thus ineligible!

Hah, just noticed this.

CG is perfectly acceptable. The pic rules stipulate official art, official materials, or in-game screenshots. CG falls under the third category, and even if it somehow didn't, Bacon would probbaly accept it anyway. He's been very lax with where the pics come from; we've already had Action Figure Kratos, Fan Art Auron, Soul Calibur Lloyd (twice!), and a others I can't name across the top of my head.

So if anyone had the inkling...well...all I'm saying is you'd better hope no one is as cruel as Zen can be!

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Lopen | Posted 5/12/2009 6:10:32 PM | message detail
After seeing MM3 against SMW, I doubt SMW2:YI holds SM64 back much.

After seeing FF4 against FF1, I don't.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/12/2009 6:11:24 PM | message detail
And I'm pretty cruel.

*FLASHBACK*

http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/squall_red.png
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/squall_urangex0.png
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/squall_green.png
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/squall_blue.png
http://img.imgcake.com/Zen/squall_turkwaz.png

*FLASH*

....good times.
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/12/2009 6:11:40 PM | message detail
So, CT vs SM64. Given the way that this match is going, that SMW ~= SM64, and the fact that CT and FF2 share a similar fanbase (though CT >>>>>FF2), that match warrants some consideration.

Anyway, I am not so sure that Chrono Trigger is that much stronger than SM64.

CT's first round performance was impressive, but it really does not tell us much. After all, it was a four-way SFF match; not only were they all SNES games, but they were all released in 1995, as well!

More importantly, these 2 of these other games are horribly weak. I would take Kirby Super Star over Earthbound with room to spare 1 on 1. The only game in CT's poll with any semblance of strength in CT's poll is Yoshi's Island, and we have no idea how strong it is. The only data we have is a favorite Mario poll 6 years ago in which YI was outperformed by SMB2, which does not exactly inspire confidence.

SM64 did about 10% worse, but its competition was a lot more legitimate. SOTN is a legitimately popular game, Resident Evil is the first game in a popular series, and Kirby Super Star, while weak, is still a tier above Earthbound. Moreover, these are all several distinct fanbases that have appeared on 3 different consoles, and the only one that should have been subject to significant SFF is Kirby.

I am not saying that SM64 > CT this round is likely, given that Yoshi's Island is there to hold SM64 back, but it still remains a possibility.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/12/2009 6:12:33 PM | message detail
It would help for YI to be much stronger than it is, but at this point, I'd expect 85/15 (kinda like what we're seeing now between Mario World and MM3) before I'd expect the split to endanger Mario 64.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/12/2009 6:12:43 PM | message detail
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/R2MGS2.png

MGS2 gets first place in its match y/n
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Lopen | Posted 5/12/2009 6:13:31 PM | message detail
Oh god best match pic ever 1st place confirmed.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/12/2009 6:14:16 PM | message detail
has anybody even submitted a MGS2 pic?

because if they haven't and that gets on the front page it's SWEET VICTORY

of course MK8 probably submitted something so it ain't happening.
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Lopen | Posted 5/12/2009 6:14:26 PM | message detail
Needs a bit better lighting though Kleenex. Use your mad Photoshop skillz to brighten it a bit.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/12/2009 6:16:19 PM | message detail
Go ahead and hype Mario 64 people; it will make CT's victory all the sweeter and more impressive to you guys when it happens.
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Lopen | Posted 5/12/2009 6:19:00 PM | message detail
It would help for YI to be much stronger than it is, but at this point, I'd expect 85/15 (kinda like what we're seeing now between Mario World and MM3) before I'd expect the split to endanger Mario 64.

Even presuming the split is that bad, seeing that FF1 + FF4 is looking weaker than just FF1, it could be damaging. I don't think it'll be that bad as Mario isn't "the status quo" that I think a statement is being made against today, but I still expect around 90% of SMW2's votes to directly damage SM64. Today's match should make you wonder if SotN has a chance once more more than being worried for CT.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/12/2009 6:19:10 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/12/2009 6:19:39 PM | message detail
http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b146/KleenexTissue501/R2MGS2-1.png

Brightened up and ready to go.
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Lopen | Posted 5/12/2009 6:21:12 PM | message detail
Now we've got a winner.

Match of the contest if that thing gets accepted.
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