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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 712

KamikazePotato | Posted 5/12/2009 4:20:43 PM | message detail
Yeah, people are overestimating SMW here.

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ZFS | Posted 5/12/2009 4:21:05 PM | message detail
Franchise voting didn't make that match 'unique,' though. Those franchise votes are simply a part of FF1's natural strength -- it'll do that every time, not just because it was up against Mario 3, or a Mario game in general. It's collapsing today because it ran into a game the fanbase largely prefers, which is no shock, but if you re-ran the round 1 match against FF wouldn't do any worse than it did there. FFIV would probably do a bit better.

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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/12/2009 4:22:06 PM | message detail
Man I was joking!

fanboyz
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/12/2009 4:22:31 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy was much stronger relative to Mario in 2004. That was the year Final Fantasy Tactics went even with Metal Gear Solid, and Mario won only three 15-minute updates against Crono all day. I have little doubt Mario 3 breaks 60% with ease on FF1 in a rematch (or on FF4). Mario World.....that's more difficult, but it probably ends up pretty close to 60-40 whichever side it lands on. If Mario World does end up over 60% on FF1 and FF4 today, it's really hard to suggest it doesn't do so on one of the games alone.
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ZFS | Posted 5/12/2009 4:23:24 PM | message detail
Yep. People are doing the same thing they did against Pokemon in round 1. Oh well, that's the stats topic these days !

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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/12/2009 4:25:20 PM | message detail
These days? Don't you mean any time there's a contest?
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/12/2009 4:25:22 PM | message detail
These days? The stats topic has done this since 2004 at least. Samus > Cloud, Megaman > Link, Tifa and Vincent > everyone but Clinkeroth!
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/12/2009 4:26:30 PM | message detail
Could be worse, we could've undershot Mario World by 18% and then refused to change our point of view.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/12/2009 4:27:02 PM | message detail
That'd be downright silly!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/12/2009 4:27:53 PM | message detail

From: RPGuy96 | #208
Could be worse, we could've undershot Mario World by 18% and then refused to change our point of view.


xD
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ZFS | Posted 5/12/2009 4:28:28 PM | message detail
If only MM3 hasn't completely collapsed and FF1 didn't suck even worse than anticipated against SFF!

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/12/2009 4:29:39 PM | message detail
People really aren't overreacting here. I see no one claiming SMW is a top 5 game, and no one but Albion claiming it would beat SMB3 or SSBM or FFX or something like that. Suggesting that SMW would break 60% on FF4 when it may do so on FF4 and FF1 combined is not exactly overreaction.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/12/2009 4:30:20 PM | message detail
If FF had held up better...FFIV would be doing worse. If Mega Man 3 hadn't completely collapsed...well, you seem to think that FFIV would have gotten a lot of Mega Man votes for some reason, so presumably FFIV would be doing worse.

Man that makes Mario World look bad.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/12/2009 4:31:33 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/12/2009 4:32:21 PM | message detail
Still don't see how its out there that it can beat smb3 especially when its really a toss up whats more popular within the fanbase. We've already assumed sonic 2 was the strongest Sonic game, and DKC2 was the strongest DKC game, and that was proven wrong

No reason to be so confident that SMB3 is the strongest mario game based off 5 years stats
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/12/2009 4:32:52 PM | message detail
Still don't see how its out there that it can beat smb3 especially when its really a toss up whats more popular within the fanbase.

It's never been a toss-up. And the only person using stats is you.

And DKC was going to be the most popular game. Anyone who thought otherwise was just asking to be wrong.
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ZFS | Posted 5/12/2009 4:32:59 PM | message detail
MM3 doing the mid-teens, or even higher by some people, would have been almost entirely at the expense of SMW. It didn't do that and here we are.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/12/2009 4:34:08 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #216
Still don't see how its out there that it can beat smb3 especially when its really a toss up whats more popular within the fanbase.

It's never been a toss-up. And the only person using stats is you.

And DKC was going to be the most popular game. Anyone who thought otherwise was just asking to be wrong.


That board 8 topic asking your favorite mario game out of the two has SMW winning like 70%. I know thats only board 8, but its silly to say without doubt SMB3 is more popular of the two.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/12/2009 4:34:54 PM | message detail
Without doubt Mario 3 is the more popular of the two.

I bet FFIX beats FFVIII on Board 8 by a wide margin, too.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/12/2009 4:35:53 PM | message detail
FFIV would take a bigger chunk of the MM3 votes than most people would give credit.

MM3 doing the mid-teens, or even higher by some people, would have been almost entirely at the expense of SMW.

Did I miss something? Did you become BT for the day or somesuch?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/12/2009 4:36:18 PM | message detail
You're most likely right its the more popular of the two. Just I haven't see anything to make me think it is 100%, so I just won't be shocked if SMW beats it. Thats all I'm saying.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/12/2009 4:37:02 PM | message detail
Yeah, if we're using B8 to gauge contest strength than GS is going to SFF RBY into the dirt, FFIX is the strongest FF game, Tales of Symphonia is a Top 20 game at the very least, and Phoenix Wright would win the contest.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/12/2009 4:37:52 PM | message detail

From: KamikazePotato | #222
Yeah, if we're using B8 to gauge contest strength than GS is going to SFF RBY into the dirt, FFIX is the strongest FF game, Tales of Symphonia is a Top 20 game at the very least, and Phoenix Wright would win the contest.


At the very least it does show us where the board vote will go!
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ZFS | Posted 5/12/2009 4:39:04 PM | message detail
I said a bigger chunk than people would've given credit, not that SMW wouldn't also get its share of the votes from MM3, otherwise I would have said that FFIV would have done better than 45% 1v1 -- and I certainly didn't say this.

Of course we can continue to throw out every previous result in favor of a match littered with SFF, but whatever! We'll see what happens in round 3. If FFIV doesn't advance out of that, I'll happily say you're right and I was wrong.

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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/12/2009 4:40:36 PM | message detail
HM, what's the strongest game you'd take FF4 to beat 1 on 1?
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/12/2009 4:40:51 PM | message detail
Oh, FFIV can still advance next round - it just has to hope Mario 3 kills Mario World. I don't think that's happening, though, and I didn't think that would happen pre-contest either. LFF alone isn't going to cut it, it needs SFF as well.
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ZFS | Posted 5/12/2009 4:44:14 PM | message detail
I'm not even sure what the games are looking like right now. To pull out a couple of random games (not necessarily the strongest), I'd take FFIV over MGS2 and MGS3.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/12/2009 4:45:47 PM | message detail
That's not exactly a very high bar. MGS2 and MGS3 aren't that far above average.

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MetricTrout | Posted 5/12/2009 4:46:07 PM | message detail
I can see SMB3 and SMW splitting evenly in Round 3 and FF2 being too weak to capitalize, sort of like Sonic 3 failing to do anything against Smetroid/Mario Kart.
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ZFS | Posted 5/12/2009 4:49:49 PM | message detail
Well, let's see...

I'd take it over Super Metroid; I'd take it over Goldeneye; take it over StarCraft; take it over the WW and MM...

I dunno, I wouldn't call it a top 15 game or anything, but I think FFIV is fine, it's going to be plenty strong when it's all said and done. Not that we can take much from that since it's an SFF fest in its favor from here on, but yeah.

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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/12/2009 4:51:19 PM | message detail
Really? I wouldn't take FF4 over either of those. I'm not sure where this misplaced notion of FF4 being that strong is coming from. It hasn't exactly looked spectacular. Yeah, it got 50% in its first match, but its strongest competition was Mega Man 3. Would you take Mega Man 3 to get anywhere close to MGS2 or MGS3?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/12/2009 4:52:44 PM | message detail
FF4 I see maybe being a tiny bit stronger then FF12. And we saw how that did
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transients | Posted 5/12/2009 5:01:02 PM | message detail
there is wayyyyyyyy too much FF4 hype based on a match where it's fighting to break 31% on Mario World, overlap or not.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/12/2009 5:11:01 PM | message detail
I wish I didn't already have a sig bet on that round three match. I'm very confident FFIV moves on. Have you guys forgotten that Nintendo entities overlap as well? Possibly more than others?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/12/2009 5:12:17 PM | message detail
Yeah, replace FFIV with a weaker game and it would probably still move on. SMW/SMB3/Sonic 1? Really? Have we all forgotten Zack Fair=Mario?

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/12/2009 5:12:29 PM | message detail
LTTP has a better chance of beating FFVII in round 4 than FFIV has of beating SMW next round, I think. The natural strength gap should be smaller, and I'd expect CT + FFVI to bring more LFF to the table than SMB3 alone.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/12/2009 5:13:36 PM | message detail
LTTP has a better chance of beating FFVII in round 4 than FFIV has of beating SMW next round, I think.

Triple. Nintendo. Overlap.

FFIV could get first. it wouldn't be that big of a shocker.

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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/12/2009 5:13:43 PM | message detail
LTTP has a better chance of beating FFVII in round 4

By better chance you mean 100% I hope !!
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/12/2009 5:14:04 PM | message detail
Have we forgotten that Zack broke 30% on Link twice before the Mario match? And that he only went up to 34% on Link with the Triple LFF in that match?
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transients | Posted 5/12/2009 5:15:20 PM | message detail
I would think Final Fantasy titles would overlap more than Nintendo games. we never really saw FF overlap until today, and as we can see it's absolutely killing FF1 and FF4.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/12/2009 5:15:29 PM | message detail
Triple. Nintendo. Overlap.

Triple Square Overlap?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/12/2009 5:15:44 PM | message detail
Have we all forgotten Zack Fair=Mario?

You're seriously using that as evidence? Zack put up 49% on Mario in that match. Can he even break 40%? in a 1v1? Keep in mind that Mario 3 and Mario World will overlap more than Link and Mario did, and FFIV will stand out more than Zack did.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/12/2009 5:16:12 PM | message detail
all aboard the starcraft train
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/12/2009 5:16:56 PM | message detail
...

Uh...yo...that's exactly the argument I was making. I'm on your side here. >____>

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/12/2009 5:17:35 PM | message detail
Triple. Nintendo. Overlap.

Sonic isn't Nintendo, and whatever overlap there was between it and Mario 3 was minimal at best. The issue here is Mario 3 and Mario World's overlap. Sonic will be a non-factor in that match.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/12/2009 5:18:08 PM | message detail
Sorry, seems like only one other person is.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/12/2009 5:19:36 PM | message detail
Um, for all this talk of Triple. Nintendo. LFF., are you noticing Mega Man 3 in this match? It does not appear to be hurting Mario World, and if Final Fantasy IV is as strong as you guys would like to think Mega Man 3 is stronger than Sonic 1.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/12/2009 5:19:53 PM | message detail
Eh, FFIV has a chance; never said it didn't. LTTP has a chance against FFVII too, for that matter.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/12/2009 5:19:55 PM | message detail

From: transients | Posted: 5/12/2009 8:01:02 PM | #233
there is wayyyyyyyy too much FF4 hype based on a match where it's fighting to break 31% on Mario World, overlap or not.


But Mario 3 will TOTALLY cause a 20% gap to be made up.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/12/2009 5:20:13 PM | message detail
all aboard the starcraft train

FFVIII and FFIX could both be at equal strength, split 50/50, and Starcraft would probably still lose.

I mean, it's what MM3 did here today! *completely ignores Mario World SFF*

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