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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 712

creativename | Posted 5/11/2009 10:22:39 PM | message detail
The dream match pic for Starcraft fans would probably be Rinoa vs. Vivi. (wait why am I giving these people ideas ugh)

But the only reason I can think of for Mario World to be doing that much better is for it to be pummeling Mega Man 3 with SFF here.

Which appears to be the case since Mega Man 3 is doing much worse against FFIV.


Yeah this looks like it may be a rare SFF-without-LFF situation, or close to it. Looks like the MM3/SMW overlap is coming pretty much purely at MM3's expense. Because for it to be doing even worse against FF4 than last round despite FF4 getting uber-leeched is pretty pathetic.

I submitted a FF7 pic of Cloud and Barret fighting Guard Scorpion.

How dare your submission be denied. Your coup must unfold soon. This is an intolerable insult.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 10:24:29 PM | message detail
Yeah, Mega Man 3 is under 30% on FFIV despite getting nearly 42% last round and FFI leeching FFIV.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/11/2009 10:27:37 PM | message detail
Mega Man 3 is bombing about 50% than I thought it would, and I expected it to bomb pretty bad. Perhaps this gives Sonic 2 some hope yet (assuming that MMX was victim to a much milder case of this same treatment against Zelda).
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 5/11/2009 10:29:48 PM | message detail
Something happened such that Mario World underperformed last round, that's my current take on it.

The round 1 match was pretty straightforward. This match is far more strange with two games from the same series in it. I'd say it's more likely that SMW is overperforming here for whatever reason.
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FastFalcon and Solid Snake snapped my neck in the guru contest.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 10:31:07 PM | message detail
Yep, SMW dropping off pretty hard, and looks like FFI is the primary beneficiary right now.
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Lopen | Posted 5/11/2009 10:31:38 PM | message detail
This still makes sense to me. Final Fantasy titles x2

Super Mario World is acting as the status quo rebellion lightning rod. You'll see soon guys when the LoZ/FF games start accumulating in greater numbers.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/11/2009 10:31:42 PM | message detail
Maybe the other three pictures looking like steaming piles of dog crap have something to do with it. I got scared that the FF1 sprite-fest might sway the match, but when it comes to visual nostalgia, it's now obvious that it can't hold a candle to the super nova that is SMW's pic.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ZFS | Posted 5/11/2009 10:32:53 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'd sooner say this match is the goofy one before I would last round, where there was no real reason for that to be the case. FFIV isn't too far off from where I expected it to be (27%), but FF1 and MM3 are well below that. MM3's definitely taking a hit SMW -- it looks like it's taking nearly all of its percentage for itself. Not too surprising, but just the degree that it's happening is pretty 'whoa.'

I expect some will be equally confused next round when FFIV is in SMW's position!

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a metal slime appears
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 10:33:56 PM | message detail
It's strange that SC2K4 is generally considered the worst contest because of all the SFF! Yet we can have a format full of it and it's great!
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plasmabeam | Posted 5/11/2009 10:34:47 PM | message detail
it's now obvious that it can't hold a candle to the super nova that is SMW's pic.

Arguably the best title screen in all of gaming. I believe it was a demo of the 5th star level. Mmm... Mario World.

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~Jacksonville Jaguars~
Lopen | Posted 5/11/2009 10:35:08 PM | message detail
Mario is not "the status quo" we'll be seeing nothing strange there.

Final Fantasy IV has no chance come next round unless SMB3 pounds SMW into the dirt (which could happen)
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 5/11/2009 10:35:20 PM | message detail
That ''first in the series'' factor could be used to explain the different performances. FF1 got a lot of votes for representing the series as a whole in the first round, but with FFIV here, neither game really represents the whole series, and instead each stands alone on its own merits. Less franchise votes = less FF power.
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ZFS | Posted 5/11/2009 10:37:31 PM | message detail
I'd bet a lot on FFIV advancing next round. I'd be shocked if FFIV doesn't come out of the SMB3/SMW/Sonic 1 SFF mess.

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a metal slime appears
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/11/2009 10:42:06 PM | message detail
Same here. It's like people have forgotten that FFIV's natural strength on Mario World is almost certainly somewhere in the mid 40s. Look at what's happening to it with this fanbase split. Imagine what's in store for those three platformers next round. A raw strength of mid-40s on SMW will be good enough to move on. Plenty good enough.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ZFS | Posted 5/11/2009 10:45:31 PM | message detail
Yeah, people are kinda overreacting to SMW here. It's not surprising since it's hard to argue with it putting up a hurting on FFI/FFIV combined, but no one should be believing this is the legit performance and last round's was the 'fluke.' There's just no reason to think that. We've seen twice FF1 put up 40%+ on a Mario game; discrediting it because of this is pretty silly.

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a metal slime appears
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 10:46:13 PM | message detail
Yeah, it's not a good idea to base too much on an obvious SFF match.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 10:46:55 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #065
Yeah, people are kinda overreacting to SMW here. It's not surprising since it's hard to argue with it putting up a hurting on FFI/FFIV combined, but no one should be believing this is the legit performance and last round's was the 'fluke.' There's just no reason to think that. We've seen twice FF1 put up 40%+ on a Mario game; discrediting it because of this is pretty silly.


I think its quite easy to discredit it. FF is nothing but franchise votes, and put it against another FF, it crumbles. Its basically FF votes vs. Mario.
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Lopen | Posted 5/11/2009 10:47:05 PM | message detail
Hayabusa beat RIKU + ROXAS COMBINED.

Mortal lock.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
ZFS | Posted 5/11/2009 10:50:52 PM | message detail
Those franchise votes are part of FF1's natural strength, though. I think a good chunk of us here expected FFIV to win the SFF battle pretty decisively, though maybe not as much as this, so it's not too unexpected. The bigger thing is that FF1 and MM3 are just getting destroyed and it's all going to SMW. SFF, it can be a nasty thing!

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hochiminhX | Posted 5/11/2009 10:55:53 PM | message detail
This is my FF8 pic that will be used

http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/6856/ff8pic2.jpg


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I will bury you.
Janus5000 | Posted 5/11/2009 11:02:09 PM | message detail
Hayabusa beat RIKU + ROXAS COMBINED.

Cool, I'm not the only one who remembers this.

Granted, that was closer to 50/50 than today, but still. SMB3 could easily put a hurt on SMW just as much as Snake put on Ryu, if not more.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/11/2009 11:03:26 PM | message detail
Vote total stats time!!!

Sonic the Hedgehog's vote total was about 51.73% of its vote total last round.
Street Fighter II's vote total was about 59.02% of its vote total last round.
Super Mario Bros. 3's vote total was about 61.58% of its vote total last round.
The Secret of Monkey Island's vote total was about 79.81% of its vote total last round.

Whoa, that's one heck of a hardcore fanbase coming from Monkey Island. On the other hand though, what the hell happened to Sonic? Losing almost half your votes from round 1??? This PROVES, hands down, that Mario 3 SFFd Sonic 1 handily here. Sonic 1 should've been lucky that it won the last match by ten thousand votes, or else...yeah, if I didn't look at vote totals so much, I wouldn't have thought that Sonic would have a chance at advancing in this match. And let's look at those vote totals!!!

1. Super Mario Bros. 3
2. Super Mario Bros.
3. The Legend of Zelda
4. Tetris
5. Mega Man 2
6. Sonic the Hedgehog
7. Street Fighter II
8. Pac-Man
9. Donkey Kong
10. Metroid
11. The Secret of Monkey Island
12. Ninja Gaiden

Once again, take a good look at that hardcore Monkey Island fanbase! It was last in vote totals last round out of every game that went to round 2, and now it actually managed 2k more votes than Ninja Gaiden did. On the other hand, Sonic 1 went down quite handily, proving, once again, SFF (or, at the very least, lack of a hardcore fanbase). If you think about it, Sonic 1 had 49k votes in round 1 while Mega Man 2 only had 40k votes, and now look at how things are going. Yikes! Super Mario 3 and Street Fighter II did more or less as expected.
creativename | Posted 5/11/2009 11:07:51 PM | message detail
Gentlemen, I've figured out what's wrong with MM3. The background isn't just ugly ass green - it's actually kryptonite.

Yet we can have a format full of it and it's great!

Wait what - are you saying this contest has been great...? Because this has been one of the worsts contests ever.


Yeah, people are kinda overreacting to SMW here.

The stats topic seems to have become even more short-sighted and "what have you done for me lately" than in the past.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 11:51:51 PM | message detail
Hayabusa beat RIKU + ROXAS COMBINED.

Hayabusa probably beats Riku again if not for Snake. Too bad it took us another year to realize that.

Wait what - are you saying this contest has been great...? Because this has been one of the worsts contests ever.

I was being sarcastic. Like I said, we generally regard SC2K4 as one of the worst contests because of too much SFF, but now Bacon declares that a format that is conducive to massive loads of SFF is the best thing we can have! Whoo-hoo!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 11:54:40 PM | message detail
Mario World's starting to bleed like crazy now, though I still expect it to finish above 50% easily by the time this is all said and done.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 11:55:32 PM | message detail
It'll get back alot of what it is bleeding during the day. These are 3 night games afterall
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SmurfFAQs | Posted 5/12/2009 12:36:47 AM | message detail
oh Mega Man. It's not even fun to belittle you any more, you're just pathetic these days.

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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.
dragoontheguy | Posted 5/12/2009 12:49:00 AM | message detail
I have a question linkmariosamus, is this vote total stuff just a funny gimmick or are you taking votals seriously?

I honestly can't tell.
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"A casual stroll through the lunatic asylum shows that faith does not prove anything." - Friedrich Nietzsche
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dragoontheguy | Posted 5/12/2009 12:50:59 AM | message detail
I think its quite easy to discredit it. FF is nothing but franchise votes

Unless it's going up against another ff game like today, those franchise votes will always be part of its strength though.

All this means is that you should never take it over another ff game, even if it might be indirectly stronger than a few of them.
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"A casual stroll through the lunatic asylum shows that faith does not prove anything." - Friedrich Nietzsche
http://www.last.fm/user/dragoontheguy
Chaotic Mind | Posted 5/12/2009 2:01:40 AM | message detail
I just checked the poll for the first time and i am blown away by SMW. How is it getting a higher percentage than it did in round 1?!

Maybe some of the people who voted Battletoads for the lulz are voting SMW now, while the % of voters who prefer FF to Mario remains relatively the same (FF1 got ~36.5% last round, 1 and 4 combined are at ~37.5% this round) even with the far better FFIV joining the poll?
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/12/2009 2:06:19 AM | message detail
Super Mario World > FF1
Super Mario World > > FF4+FF1

lol
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dragoontheguy | Posted 5/12/2009 2:27:24 AM | message detail
There's so much sff going on in this match that I don't think we can really draw any conclusions from it.
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"A casual stroll through the lunatic asylum shows that faith does not prove anything." - Friedrich Nietzsche
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SmurfFAQs | Posted 5/12/2009 2:35:04 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 5/12/2009 2:52:46 AM | message detail
I think I know whats going on, This:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGB6HwEd7zU





YOU DIDNT MAKE IT
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Ah, you know it's funny, these people, they go to sleep. They think everything's fine, everything's good... They wake up the next day and they're on fire.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/12/2009 3:05:37 AM | message detail
@dragoontheguy: Yes, I actually take vote totals seriously. It's quite interesting, to be honest, to see which fanbases stick with their games and which don't. Also, vote totals help you to see what's coming for rounds 2 and later of a contest. For example, I would've never guessed that Sonic the Hedgehog would've advanced in yesterday's match despite Mario SFF without knowing that Sonic 1 beat SFII by 10k votes in round 1. Also, back in 2002, Max Payne was the large favorite against Scorpion because he had a better round 1 percentage, but his vote total was FAR worse, which is the only realistic way to explain why Max Payne got his ass handed to him against Scorpion.

So yeah, the vote totals help in my predictions.
greatone10 | Posted 5/12/2009 4:16:48 AM | message detail

From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 5/12/2009 12:50:59 AM | #079
I think its quite easy to discredit it. FF is nothing but franchise votes

Unless it's going up against another ff game like today, those franchise votes will always be part of its strength though.


Yeah, I agree that if FF can still get franchise votes against something like SMW, it's always going to be like that. And if FF1 is truly as reliant on franchise votes as you think, then it could be deadly if something like SMW wasn't there.
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Donkey Kong Country 2's path to Best Game Ever '09.
Not even 10%? What is wrong with you people? At least SMRPG and Goldeneye moved on.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/12/2009 4:39:19 AM | message detail
Now for the usual match prediction, with the recap first.

Super Metroid - Perhaps the most atmospheric game ever, a game that has everything except for story (and there it excels compared to most Nintendo games) and even a completely remappable control scheme. Yep, Super Metroid is one of the few games I think deserves to win this entire tourney, but unfortunately it can't happen, as, for the second time in a row, Super Metroid got shafted and has to face A Link to the Past in round 2. One could argue, that, aside from that, SM disappointed in every contest.

Super Mario Kart - The start of the #1 multiplayer franchise IMO, and undoubtedly one of the greatest games of its time, if not all time, has shown more strength than the list indicates, by going neck and neck with Super Metroid last round. That's probably more Super Metroid's weakness than Mario Kart's strength, but still...

Zelda: A Link to the Past - It's one of the few games which deserves to win, once again getting everything right, bringing mass popularity to its franchise, having a story that serves as a blueprint for every game in its series to follow, and let's not forget the huge plot twist in the middle. Last time, Zelda 3 destroyed its first two rounds' opposition before disappointing against Final Fantasy VI and getting steamrolled by Chrono Trigger in a match that went down to the wire. Zelda 3 has looked great in this contest so far, having one of the highest vote totals of round 1, but what will happen?

Donkey Kong Country - Oho, it's [one of] the most overrated game[s] of all time! Not that I hate Donkey Kong Country though; it was a GIGANTIC technical achievement for its console, and its gameplay offers a unique perspective on Donkey Kong, but seriously, no power-ups??? Though now that I think about it, Diddy Kong is a cool character. As far as the contest goes, Donkey Kong Country somehow managed to defeat DOOM even under SFF from Zelda 3, and the only way that even remotely makes sense is that DKC sold almost twice as well as Zelda 3. What happens now?

Now, DKC has sold the best out of all of these games, but I, uhm, doubt it could finish anywhere but last place. I suppose it could challenge Super Metroid/Mario Kart for 3rd, but I doubt it. Zelda 3 will take first easily, and so, the debate is, once again, Super Metroid vs. Mario Kart. I think Super Metroid will get SFFd more than Mario Kart and won't advance, and thus the entire Metroid franchise will get eliminated out of the tourney again! Oh well. This will be a huge SFF-fest, so here's what the percentages would probably be.

Super Metroid - 17%, Super Mario Kart - 23%, Zelda: A Link to the Past - 50%, Donkey Kong Country - 10%
Prediction: Zelda: A Link to the Past > Super Mario Kart
Bracket: Zelda: A Link to the Past > Super Metroid
Favorites: Zelda: A Link to the Past > Super Metroid
Favorites Bracket: Zelda: A Link to the Past > Super Metroid
Younger Brother's Favorites: Donkey Kong Country > Super Metroid
SmurfFAQs | Posted 5/12/2009 4:57:00 AM | message detail
I expect DKC to dip below 5% tomorrow, it's going to be challenging records.
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MnMZero | Posted 5/12/2009 5:57:02 AM | message detail
This all but confirms that all Mega Man games suck unless they have ZERO in them!
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The Mana Sword | Posted 5/12/2009 6:07:38 AM | message detail
...holy crap Mario World.

Either that, or lol Final Fantasy 1/4/Mega Man 3.

I think the later is more likely.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/12/2009 7:51:19 AM | message detail
Well, Donkey Kong Country has sold the best out of every game in the match. That should help it from looking to bad.
MnMZero | Posted 5/12/2009 8:17:35 AM | message detail
Looking at the past topic, what is all this talk between Mario 3 and SMW? Is there anything that has changed within the last 5 years that would cause SMW to suddenly be the stronger game? I definitely don't think SMW certainly "looks" stronger than SMB3 anyways. We're talking about a weak SFF'd Mega Man 3, and LFF/SFF between the two FF games. Of course SMW is going to look like its on steroids in this match...
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Proud Supporter of Zero
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/12/2009 8:55:21 AM | message detail
According to vote totals, Final Fantasy IV > Sonic the Hedgehog > Street Fighter II > Mega Man 3

And all four of those games were subject to SFF this round. I'd indeed imagine an SFFd Mega Man 3 to be the weakest of the group, Sonic 1 > SFII (d'oh), and probably Final Fantasy IV being about on Sonic's level.

This means that Super Mario World is on Mario 3's level, at the very least, something which the past contest and the list don't indicate. It's true that Mario World is more iconic than Mario 3, but still.

It's also slightly possible that Final Fantasy IV is being SFFd by Mario World. They were both launch titles for the Super Nintendo, were they not? Though there's not much of a chance of that, to be honest.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/12/2009 8:57:23 AM | message detail
It's true that Mario World is more iconic than Mario 3, but still.

Try again.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FFIV Points: 105/152
ffmasterjose | Posted 5/12/2009 8:58:28 AM | message detail
This means that Super Mario World is on Mario 3's level, at the very least, something which the past contest and the list don't indicate. It's true that Mario World is more iconic than Mario 3, but still.

I have to disagree pretty much completely with this entire statement. I really doubt Mario World and Mario 3 are at the same level, we'll see that next round. And if you're familiar with the fanbases, like at all, you'd know that Mario 3 is much more highly praised than Mario World.

And using vote totals as an indication of strength is just a bad idea in practice.

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114/152 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Mario World > Mega Man 3 | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/12/2009 9:00:56 AM | message detail
Had to put my first user on ignore.

I don't even hate him it's just... damn, I hate having to scroll through those long posts of useless crap
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
SmurfFAQs | Posted 5/12/2009 9:01:45 AM | message detail
I think the people in this topic have always undermined Mario World more than it deserves. SMB3 might have had the bigger impact but World was the better game. I really don't know which way the voters would swing on the matter but either way I don't think there's a lot between them.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/12/2009 9:02:50 AM | message detail
*insert ignoring is a sign of weakness statement here*

Though in terms of iconic praise it goes; SMB > SM64 >= SMB3 > SMW
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FFIV Points: 105/152
SmurfFAQs | Posted 5/12/2009 9:03:46 AM | message detail

From: ffmasterjose | #095
And using vote totals as an indication of strength is just a bad idea in practice.


So was x-stats but it didn't stop the bulk of this topic hanging on their every decimal for years.
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.
ffmasterjose | Posted 5/12/2009 9:09:01 AM | message detail
I'd trust x-stats before vote totals >_>

It's also slightly possible that Final Fantasy IV is being SFFd by Mario World. They were both launch titles for the Super Nintendo, were they not? Though there's not much of a chance of that, to be honest.

No....just.....no. They didn't even come out at the same time.

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114/152 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Mario World > Mega Man 3 | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4