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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 711

LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:20:42 PM | message detail
...Mario World just keeps going up.
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creativename | Posted 5/11/2009 9:21:12 PM | message detail
Who knows if FFIX will be able to resist SFF.

It probably will because it's newer. These games are relying more on the old-school fanbase.

It makes a lot more sense to think that Mario World will have the strength of FFVII + Ocarina by the end of the contest.

SMW=L-Block, it was so obvious how did we not see this coming. What fools we are.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:21:12 PM | message detail
Pretty sure he quoted me, Lopen!

Know your sources!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/11/2009 9:21:17 PM | message detail
And the RBY/GS split won't be nearly as bad as this. Forgot to add that. So yeah.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 9:21:19 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #398
Why is everyone so sure SMB3 gets the SFF advantage? SMB3 could very well be toast next round.

Same reason most people were sure FFIV would get the SFF advantage here over FFI. If you are familiar with the fanbase at all, you know Mario 3 is by far the preferred Mario game.


FF1 vs. FF4 is no where near the same thing as SMB3 vs. SMW.
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deadeyedllv | Posted 5/11/2009 9:21:28 PM | message detail
Pokemon split and MGS>MM confirmed!

lol jk, MM still screwed.

On a more serious note, I don't see FFIX keeping up with FFVIII at all (sadly). Based on the serious domination in round one I think FFVIII should move on. It may be close though. What day of the week is that match, and how will that affect anything?
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:21:29 PM | message detail
It's strange how everyone is thinking Mario 3 > Mario World is looking so much better for next round, and no one is thinking how SFF and fanbase splitting is clearly screwing the Final Fantasies. FF1 can hit the low-mid 40s on Mario World legitimately. FFIV, a clearly stronger game, should logically be able to do better, and it's doing about 12%+ worse right now. Even if Mario dies for the rest of the match, does anyone actually think this is indicative of FFIV's strength after what we saw last round? Next round is going to be completely different.

The thing is, no amount of LFF should be able to make SMW beat FF1 + FF4 combined worse than FF1 alone. If it does so, that indicates that SMW may be worth more than the 55% on FF1 it showed last round. I don't know why, but we have seen obvious favorites underperform in the first round with characters, so it's no unprecendented.

In any case, before this, I'd all but given up on SMW next round, and now, I think it has a decent chance at least. That's looking a lot better even if SMW isn't the favorite.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/11/2009 9:21:57 PM | message detail
FFIX>FFVIII, SC still fails to capitalize

Let's do this

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:22:06 PM | message detail
FF1 vs. FF4 is no where near the same thing as SMB3 vs. SMW.

Then you don't know the Mario fanbase. Mario 3 is THE Mario game among the fanbase.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:22:45 PM | message detail
Although what others are saying is true. For some reason, massive overperformances/unexpected performances often lead to bandwagons in this thing.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:23:19 PM | message detail
What day of the week is that match, and how will that affect anything?

Monday, I think, and it shouldn't matter, I imagine.
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Lopen | Posted 5/11/2009 9:23:22 PM | message detail
Oh never mind I guess it just sounded like some mistakenly overconfident thing he'd say my bad...! (Zelda absorbing anti-status quo votes really just think about that)
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/11/2009 9:23:39 PM | message detail
For some reason, massive overperformances/unexpected performances often lead to bandwagons in this thing.

Let's do this RBY

Hell, let's do this ToS

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ZFS | Posted 5/11/2009 9:24:16 PM | message detail
FFIX>FFVIII, SC still fails to capitalize

I could get behind this!

(Even if it won't happen!)

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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 5/11/2009 9:24:19 PM | message detail
ToS > MGS3 next round let's do this
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 5/11/2009 9:24:24 PM | message detail
16 people fell off the Top 50 today. metroidcomposit, fatwhitecat, hmfreak31, seniorchumchum, kaonashi1, Mac_Arrowny, hochiminhX, DrLagoona, Xeybozn, Petter_S, octoblinky, Scott_Pilgrim, mssjgohan23, Whuzatt, cavalier_lowen and zerosuit_skip did not have SMB3 > Sonic 1 as yesterday's winners.

5 peopled scored half points and lived. JayLabPrime, bgbball31, Gaddswell, XxSoulxX2 and pinoy_boi also did not have SMB3 > Sonic 1 as yesterday's winners.
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Yesmar | Posted 5/11/2009 9:24:25 PM | message detail
In all fairness, Battletoads might have ****ed Super Mario World up more than FF last round for whatever reason.
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Mr3790 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:24:49 PM | message detail
MM3, you suck...
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 9:24:53 PM | message detail
16 people fell off the Top 50 today. metroidcomposit, fatwhitecat, hmfreak31, seniorchumchum, kaonashi1, Mac_Arrowny, hochiminhX, DrLagoona, Xeybozn, Petter_S, octoblinky, Scott_Pilgrim, mssjgohan23, Whuzatt, cavalier_lowen and zerosuit_skip did not have SMB3 > Sonic 1 as yesterday's winners.

Aww.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:25:20 PM | message detail
Wow, Mario World stayed the same...
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/11/2009 9:26:07 PM | message detail
Assuming SMB3 and SMW are equal in natural strength, SMB3 > SMW is the likely result, simply because of what I said about generational SFF. FF2 and Sonic 1 are going to hurt SMW more than SMB3.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 9:26:14 PM | message detail
I'm liking Mario World over 50% here when its all said and done.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:27:00 PM | message detail
This is a bit crazy, maybe FF flops to games with fanbases unlike Battletoads and PoP and FFIV is weak.

Even then SMB3 is going to crush SMW next round.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FFIV Points: 105/152
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 5/11/2009 9:27:16 PM | message detail
FFIV to shock the world and break 40% next round let's do this.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:28:29 PM | message detail
25 minutes in Mario World was half a percent away from what it finished with, by the by.
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creativename | Posted 5/11/2009 9:28:34 PM | message detail
FF2 and Sonic 1 are going to hurt SMW more than SMB3.

uh
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xp1337 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:30:26 PM | message detail
XD SMW
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/11/2009 9:30:41 PM | message detail
I liked this match better when SMW wasn't doing that.

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:30:46 PM | message detail
SMW just keeps on going.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FFIV Points: 105/152
WarThaHedgehog | Posted 5/11/2009 9:31:25 PM | message detail
....What

It's a good thing I really like SMW and FFIV making it past here is good enough for me, or I would be getting really annoyed right about now.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:31:32 PM | message detail
Well, that's interesting...
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 9:31:38 PM | message detail
smw has a bad board vote apparently
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deadeyedllv | Posted 5/11/2009 9:31:44 PM | message detail
There isn't as much of a FF fanbase vs Nintendo fanbase in the old school side of the bracket as there is in the new school. All of those games were released on a Nintendo console, so many people had the final fantasies and the Mario games. When voting their voting on the game they enjoyed more. I like FFI and FFIV a lot, but I love the Mario games more. The majority of people are the same. That and more people owned the Mario games than the early FF games.
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Lopen | Posted 5/11/2009 9:32:00 PM | message detail
XD SMW

SMB3 for contest champion tbqh FF7 has no chance to survive make its time
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 5/11/2009 9:32:13 PM | message detail
I wonder..

is LUE doing anything silly in this match? Just wondering. <_<;
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:32:23 PM | message detail
The higher SMW goes here the worse its chances are!

I'm sorry, but this is ridiculous.

FF1 vs. FF4 is no where near the same thing as SMB3 vs. SMW.

SMB3 could probably blast SMW with SFF pretty badly straight up, but considering that SMB3 won't be in danger of losing next round while SMW will, I doubt it will manage much SFF. The other thing is that you shouldn't expect an overlap anywhere near the (looks like nearly 100%.....) overlap we're seeing between FF1 and FF4 here.
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:33:19 PM | message detail
Geez Super Mario World looked weak in the first round, yet here its dominating although there are 2 FF's hurting each other here.

This contest has sure thrown a few curveballs at us.
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hochiminhX | Posted 5/11/2009 9:33:39 PM | message detail
SMW is going to end with a higher percentage than SMB3. The truth is the Mario fanbase is split between SMB3 and SMW
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/11/2009 9:34:48 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3480&region=DE
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3480&region=IT

This is disappointing. Monkey Island beat SMB3 in Germany and Italy.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 9:35:07 PM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #439
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3480&region=DE
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3480&region=IT

This is disappointing. Monkey Island beat SMB3 in Germany and Italy.


More like its awesome.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:35:22 PM | message detail
SMW's path to never losing % in a 5 minute update - Next up, 12:40 Update.
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creativename | Posted 5/11/2009 9:35:47 PM | message detail
I wouldn't have given SMW much of a shot at all before. I'd give it a higher shot now, but not a great one. SMB3 is just a brick wall, despite SMB3 looking bad yesterday and SMW looking like a world-beater today.

Oh never mind I guess it just sounded like some mistakenly overconfident thing he'd say my bad...!

Overconfident, that's amusing :) I'm pretty much never overconfident, I just have a track record of proving other people really, really, really wrong really often! XD And it's somewhat unusual for the reverse to happen.

My record is almost...spoooooky (kids hide yourselves)
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:35:50 PM | message detail
SMW is just plain scary now.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FFIV Points: 105/152
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:35:53 PM | message detail
Man, I was about to say Mario World FINALLY went down...until I realized it broke 53%.

Whoa.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 9:35:54 PM | message detail
it just wont stop
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 5/11/2009 9:35:58 PM | message detail
Guh
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:37:13 PM | message detail
Monkey Island is a top 3 game in Germany and Italy confirmed. Zelda tends to be stronger in America than Europe, so if it can beat SMB3 in Germany and Italy, it should be able to beat LTTP as well, and obviously CT. Maybe it can even topple OOT.....
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:37:14 PM | message detail
SMB3 could probably blast SMW with SFF pretty badly straight up, but considering that SMB3 won't be in danger of losing next round while SMW will, I doubt it will manage much SFF. The other thing is that you shouldn't expect an overlap anywhere near the (looks like nearly 100%.....) overlap we're seeing between FF1 and FF4 here.

Looks like over 100% overlap. I am seriously puzzled by this, especially since Mario World is looking good to finish above 50%.

I guess it could be a case of Obvious First Place, we saw this a number of times in the last character contest (and I was joking when I said FF overperformed last round!). But I don't think there were too many cases so far this contest - maybe FFVII (or FFVI?), but Ocarina, LttP, Chrono Trigger, Mario 3...these games all looked good. I don't know why it would strike Mario World in particular.

*refreshes*

Okay, this is just ridiculous.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/11/2009 9:37:16 PM | message detail
I think Super Mario World will do a fine job holding up. It never got blasted very badly in the favorite Mario polls, and those things are old as dirt. There are many people who prefer it to Mario 3. Give it an awesome picture like the one it has here and be amazed.

Heck, the 2004 contest has Mario 3 winning 57/43, and I think their raw strengths are closer than that (I think Mario 3 overperformed). It will be a surprisingly respectable performance - there'll be no Nintendo SFF blasting there.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/11/2009 9:37:24 PM | message detail
SMW's path to never losing % in a 5 minute update - Next up, 12:40 Update.

SMW will probably crash once the night vote arrives and Asia starts mass voting FFIV.
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