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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 711

LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:08:18 PM | message detail
For the record, a contest entrant doing better despite better competition is not unprecedented.

Link got 36.42% against Sephiroth, Mario, and Vincent.

Link got 39.02% against Cloud, Samus, and Sephiroth.

I don't think there's any question which one is stronger.
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creativename | Posted 5/11/2009 9:08:23 PM | message detail
Let's not have people go overboard on SMW now. I'm still very confident it's toast next round.

SMB3/SMW is a massive split, similar to this one. Won't be as one-sided, but if FF1 can get 40% on a non-SFFed SMW, then FF4 - clearly the stronger game (I don't want to hear non-sensical rSFF drivel, especially after this!) - should be able to beat an SMW facing off what's either it's worst possible opponent, or 2nd worse (maybe next to OoT).
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:08:25 PM | message detail
So....SMB3 > SMW looking much better now. Starcraft's chances look better too, if FFVIII and FFIX split as much as FFI and FFIV are splitting (as long as IX holds up to SFF better than I is doing here).
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 9:08:43 PM | message detail

From: LordOfDabu | #348
I wonder if something similar will happen with VIII and IX. VIII probably will advance after all.


It won't be a beat down like this.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/11/2009 9:09:10 PM | message detail
Yeah, this split is really hurting the FFs. The original can easily hit the low 40s against Mario World in a fair match, and now the stronger FFIV won't come near that (even if Mario drops another 6%). I expect IV to be absolutely insane next round.
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transients | Posted 5/11/2009 9:09:54 PM | message detail
I bet Mario World falls a good 5-6% before the end of this poll.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:10:05 PM | message detail
FFIV will be the only Square game and the only non-RPG in the poll, which will help, for sure, but this is a lot of ground to make up.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:10:24 PM | message detail
Haha, Mario World just went UP.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 9:10:28 PM | message detail
SMW goes up from the board vote

what now
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ZFS | Posted 5/11/2009 9:10:34 PM | message detail
SMB3 > FFIV looks pretty clear to me. Maybe if this was the first time we were seeing SMW against these two, but what we saw what happened with a mostly neutral setting -- FF put up good numbers on SMW, and FFIV is proving itself to be the stronger game here. Add in SMB3 and Sonic, on top of a standout factor, and yeah...can't see anyone but FFIV advancing out of that.

SMW's board vote is also nuts. This is gonna go down as we go along, and the other games are gonna rise.

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creativename | Posted 5/11/2009 9:10:45 PM | message detail
And yeah, if anyone wanted to see SFF at work this contest -- here ya go.

I was honestly shocked as hell at the "no-SFF/LFF" talk earlier this contest. Could hardly believe me and yo had to point out to people that it was gonna be a force later.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 5/11/2009 9:10:51 PM | message detail
I don't know why you guys are getting confident about the Mario games from this. We're looking at a near total LFF situation here between 2 FF games. FFIV is taking almost all of its votes away from FF1 and nothing from SMW. When this situation gets turned in reverse the next couple rounds it's gonna be ugly for Mario.

Amusingly enough, I would feel very confident in FFIV making it to the quarterfinal now.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:10:58 PM | message detail
lol SMW went up.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FFIV Points: 105/152
Lopen | Posted 5/11/2009 9:11:03 PM | message detail
So anyway, I'm thinking that what's happening here is that people are seeing two FF games in the poll and they're like "what the crunk is this" and they're anti-voting the series.

Yup. Only thing that makes sense.

Starcraft is gonna beast all over FFVIII.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 9:11:35 PM | message detail
FF4 > SMW/SMB3 looks like next rounds match. Epic battle for second ... !
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Gaddswell | Posted 5/11/2009 9:11:39 PM | message detail
FF4 all bracket votez
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:11:56 PM | message detail
Yeah, as I said before, Mario World had almost this exact same percentage at the end of the board vote last round, and it finished around 45%. It'll probably do the same here. The other three games here are night-powered, so Mario World will drop big time once the Power Hour ends.
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 5/11/2009 9:11:58 PM | message detail
Oh god.

FFIV could legit make the semifinals.

Come on FFIV, if you make this happen I will love this contest forever....gotta go up some first though!
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creativename | Posted 5/11/2009 9:12:29 PM | message detail
I meant 44% for FF1 against SMW, not 40%.

I wonder if something similar will happen with VIII and IX. VIII probably will advance after all.

VIII advancing was pretty much a given, but yeah that could be uglier than I thought.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:12:47 PM | message detail
As I said earlier, I don't think the Mario games will suffer as much from LFF as the Final Fantasy games are suffering here. SMB3 and SMW have many fans outside the Nintendo fanbase; these FF games draw mostly on the Old Square fanbase. I felt really bad about SMB3 > SMW after the round 1 match, but if SMW can beat FF1 + FF4 worse than FF1 alone, it's right back in the game.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:12:52 PM | message detail
So anyway, I'm thinking that what's happening here is that people are seeing two FF games in the poll and they're like "what the crunk is this" and they're anti-voting the series.

Yup. Only thing that makes sense.

Starcraft is gonna beast all over FFVIII.


Uhhh...If anyone benefits, it's going to be OoT.

So no one be surprised if OoT breaks 55% this round.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/11/2009 9:13:02 PM | message detail
I guess this puts to rest any RBY>MGS talk. RBY could be a Top 5 game and the split would still kill it.

This also probably puts to rest any 'MM advances' talk, though, if MM3 is any indication of how a game that was an easy 2nd place before tries to capitalize on LFF.

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ChronicBoom | Posted 5/11/2009 9:14:10 PM | message detail
aww yeah really starting to like my bracket sans RE4 going way too far.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 9:15:19 PM | message detail
mario keeps on rising to heaven
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Lopen | Posted 5/11/2009 9:15:20 PM | message detail
Uhhh...If anyone benefits, it's going to be OoT.

Zelda is not going to be the one to absorb that hatred. ZeldaFAQs is just as despised as FFAQs by many. Starcraft is going to be in the perfect storm of a match. I smell overperformance.
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 5/11/2009 9:15:27 PM | message detail
....


Gack!
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Gaddswell | Posted 5/11/2009 9:15:27 PM | message detail
Mario World keeps going up!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/11/2009 9:15:31 PM | message detail
It's strange how everyone is thinking Mario 3 > Mario World is looking so much better for next round, and no one is thinking how SFF and fanbase splitting is clearly screwing the Final Fantasies. FF1 can hit the low-mid 40s on Mario World legitimately. FFIV, a clearly stronger game, should logically be able to do better, and it's doing about 12%+ worse right now. Even if Mario dies for the rest of the match, does anyone actually think this is indicative of FFIV's strength after what we saw last round? Next round is going to be completely different.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:15:54 PM | message detail
This also probably puts to rest any 'MM advances' talk, though, if MM3 is any indication of how a game that was an easy 2nd place before tries to capitalize on LFF.

Uhhh...Mario World is probably SFFing MM3 here, so I don't know if I buy that.

But yeah, MGS will be an easy first place next round, even if the split massively favors RBY.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/11/2009 9:15:57 PM | message detail
what

what

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GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/11/2009 9:16:08 PM | message detail
Battletoads >>>> MM3
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Today's prediction: SMW 35.19% - Spoony Bard 25.14% - Garland 20.26% - Top Man 19.41%
Status:
charmander6000 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:16:16 PM | message detail
SMW is currently getting 58.5% against FFIV + FFI
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BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FFIV Points: 105/152
red sox 777 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:16:26 PM | message detail
This result suggests that Starcraft can beat FFVIII if the split is fairly even- the LFF should be very very heavy. Who knows if FFIX will be able to resist SFF.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:16:48 PM | message detail
Man, look at Mario World go...
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 9:16:54 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm backing SMW > SMB3 here. SMB3 flopped yesterday and SMW is looking this good? I'm convinced.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:17:31 PM | message detail
darn it albion
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/11/2009 9:17:36 PM | message detail
SMW is currently getting 58.5% against FFIV + FFI

It got less than that against FFI last round. This can't be a fanbase split screwing the Final Fantasies. It makes a lot more sense to think that Mario World will have the strength of FFVII + Ocarina by the end of the contest.
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creativename | Posted 5/11/2009 9:17:53 PM | message detail
Uhhh...If anyone benefits, it's going to be OoT.

So no one be surprised if OoT breaks 55% this round.


You're right about that.

If Starcraft doest beat FF8 though it would be pretty sad. Starcraft is a chump, VIII is an absolute monster that could hang with anything outside the big two.
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ZFS | Posted 5/11/2009 9:17:56 PM | message detail
Yeah, 100% agree with Yo. We've seen what happens when SMW and FF1 got it at on neutral ground. The fact that SFF is killing any chance of FFIV getting close to FF1's percentage should tell everyone that next round isn't going to be pretty for what are basically three Nintendo platformers. Say you what you want to, but that's an even worse situation than this. I'd sooner buy FFIV outright winning before I would it not advancing.

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hochiminhX | Posted 5/11/2009 9:18:30 PM | message detail
Why is everyone so sure SMB3 gets the SFF advantage? SMB3 could very well be toast next round.

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Lopen | Posted 5/11/2009 9:18:31 PM | message detail
This result suggests that Starcraft can beat FFVIII if the split is fairly even- the LFF should be very very heavy. Who knows if FFIX will be able to resist SFF.

Honestly, it doesn't even need to be that even. Have you not noticed that FF4+FF's total is below FF's total alone? If FFIX directly siphons FFVIII's votes it only needs like 10% for Starcraft to win.
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MetricTrout | Posted 5/11/2009 9:18:37 PM | message detail
Also, this pretty much proves that SMW > FF1 is a statistical outlier that is not to be taken seriously.

SMW is doing better right now against 2 FF games combined than it did against just the weaker one last round.

FF1 clearly overperformed last round, no way is it legitimately worth 44% on SMW.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:18:53 PM | message detail
Argh, FFVIII better beat FFIX to a bloody pulp. Get StarCraft outta here!

Perfect storm...!
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 5/11/2009 9:19:02 PM | message detail
but if SMW can beat FF1 + FF4 worse than FF1 alone, it's right back in the game.

Why on earth would you think that? SMW hasn't gained strength in the last 3 weeks, and there are no more FF games in the way of FF4 until it hits FF7. The percentages in this match say nothing except that fanbase splits can be extremely ugly, which is only bad news for SMW. The higher SMW goes here the worse its chances are!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/11/2009 9:19:03 PM | message detail
Uhhh...Mario World is probably SFFing MM3 here, so I don't know if I buy that.

How much, though? We just saw Sonic 1 come out relatively unscathed from SMB3. MM3 is probably being hurt by SMW, but this is just embarrassing.

Plus, I seriously doubt MM manages to capitalize very much when it still shares the same company as the two Pokemon games. Throw in a Square game with the same strength and it may have had an outside shot, but another Ninty game? Nah.

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xp1337 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:19:11 PM | message detail
It makes a lot more sense to think that Mario World will have the strength of FFVII + Ocarina by the end of the contest.

Here's a theory I can get behind!

SMW absorbs the power of the games it defeats! It can't be stopped now!
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:19:29 PM | message detail
Man, Mario World had already fallen 2.3% from its five minute update in the round 1 match; here it's gone up .9%. This is pretty beastly.

This is also crazy strong LFF between FF/FFIV, to the tune of 90% or something ridiculous. FF had 42.2% on Mario World fifteen minutes into the last match, and FF and FFIV combined have 41.6% on Mario World this match. I'm struggling to come up with an example of worse LFF. Maybe it has to do with the fact (conjecture?) that the playrates for both are pretty low, so there's less of a fanbase to split? Don't really like that theory though.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:19:46 PM | message detail
Why is everyone so sure SMB3 gets the SFF advantage? SMB3 could very well be toast next round.

Same reason most people were sure FFIV would get the SFF advantage here over FFI. If you are familiar with the fanbase at all, you know Mario 3 is by far the preferred Mario game.
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Lopen | Posted 5/11/2009 9:20:35 PM | message detail
Did cn just quote himself and then agree with the thing he quoted.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/11/2009 9:20:41 PM | message detail
Whether it is or not, FFIV stands out just as good as FF1 did.
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