GameFAQs Contests

But holding on it is, so that's not a bad example. More overlap doesn't mean Mario World can't do the same thing.
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Besides the "Mario factor", how much overlap could you possibly dump on MW that Sonic doesn't have?

Platformer game? Check.

Same era? Check.

Character is now basically a Nintendo char? Check.

Being part of the same franchise should weaken Mario World further, but the game is stronger than Sonic 1. It should drop to the same level, no more than that, and quite possibly less.

But holding on it is, so that's not a bad example. More overlap doesn't mean Mario World can't do the same thing.

I'm mostly talking about LFF, SMW can get exactly what it was expected to get against SMB3 and still lose because of LFF. The original Final Fantasy got 45% against it last round. The only thing that could save it is MM3 advancing tomorrow or some weird rSFF next round.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144

Hey, 45% sounds like what SFII got on Sonic last round!
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Well considering that SMB3/SMW will have more overlap I wouldn't feel to confident. The chance is still there, but I have to give the favourite to the winner of FF/FFIV.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144

Is Monkey Island proving the dedicated fanbases theory here?

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Is Monkey Island proving the dedicated fanbases theory here?

Well it is doing much better than last round and there's only so much LFF you could blame here. However at low percents like these you'll need another SimCity/Tecmo for MI to advance in a match.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144

55/45 isn't that easy a margin to turn around, especially given we're in an era where overlap among everything is huge (meaning SMB3/Final Fantasy overlap is very substantial, I'd imagine). The winner of FF1/FF4 has to be the favorite, but I don't think it's a lock. Conversely, this match makes me think that MM3 isn't completely dead yet. I'd expect FF1/FF4 LFF to be more substantial than SMB3/SMW LFF, because the latter 2 games are universal, not just Nintendo.

Something to note is that Zack only went up from 30% to 34% against Link when Mario and MMX entered the picture. Now, that would make up a 56-44 gap around 50%, but that was triple LFF.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.

Final Fantasy IV (or I) should be fine next round, if only because it'll be the sole Square, and RPG, against what are essentially three Nintendo platformers. I'd be shocked if it didn't advance, and that's having said before this match Sonic advancing was never out of the question given that it's Street Fighter of all things.

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Agreed. I also think that old Square will have less overlap with the Nintendo platformers than something like Street Fighter II. Call it a hunch.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Yeah, there should definitely be less overlap there. Not that I think it's all that significant here (Street Fighter just sucks, which shouldn't be too surprising to anyone after round 1), but Final Fantasy's own natural strength plus a big standout factor will go a long way. I wouldn't say it's guaranteed with the way this contest has gone, but it's close. I'd feel confident in SMB3 > FF far more than I would SMB3 > SMW at this point.

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a metal slime appears

You know, I'm writing the analysis for tomorrow's match and I keep getting this feeling that FFIV may lose, the only advantage I see it having is having more fans.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144

From: charmander6000 | #112
You know, I'm writing the analysis for tomorrow's match and I keep getting this feeling that FFIV may lose, the only advantage I see it having is having more fans.

Isnt that the most important advantage in a popularity contest?
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http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg

Not when franchise voters support I over IV.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144

If FFI gets the black mage that makes peoples fall down in the pic, it has this in the bag, guaranteed. Otherwise, I think SFIV could win. Then again, the number 4 has shown itself to be death in the contest, so what do I know?

Any sort of 'franchise' votes that FF1 gets normally won't matter all that much when it's up against Final Fantasy IV. It could win there, but I'd be surprised. It's just as classic, just as 'influential,' and is more recently in people's minds -- on top of being widely considered the better game.

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Otherwise, I think SFIV could win.

Zombie SFIV is still in this contest?

INDESTRUCTIBLE!
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Proud Supporter of Zero

pfft, Zombie SFIV would be losing to MI right now.

>_>
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144

Hochi was wrong. Nooooo :(
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110/144 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Mario Bros. 3 > SF II | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4

ROFL. SFIV still being in the contest would explain how Gouken came back from the dead, too. IT ALL MAKES SENSE! :P

I wasn't "wrong". When I said Sonic has no chance I meant against SMB3.

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I will bury you.

Is Monkey Island proving the dedicated fanbases theory here?

I hate to base anything on a game that failed to get 10% both times.
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I gotta say todays performance doesn't invaldiate the hardcore fanbase theory at least. I just think that monkey island fans are independent and raid enough they'll vote for it regardless, and its gotten a very similiar percentage due to that
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http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg

Still to be in another situation that where you're against a strong game and two weak games is very low.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144

I can't say I buy Mario/Sonic SFF after this performance. it's gone from 55% on SF2 to 52% - losing out on franchise voting to the bigger series explains that pretty easily. Sonic 1 looks like the strongest of the series.

man, Sonic 3 sucks.
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xyzzy

Honestly, we've seen plenty of matches where two games get a different percentage on each other in the next round despite having no reason to do so. This could just be random variation for all we know. This doesn't prove anything to me.
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And we needed Sonic 3 & Knuckles in this contest! It'd be on its way to round 3 for sure!
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I gotta say todays performance doesn't invaldiate the hardcore fanbase theory at least. I just think that monkey island fans are independent and raid enough they'll vote for it regardless, and its gotten a very similiar percentage due to that

Today's performance doesn't prove anything one way or the other, but the amount of people that will vote for Monkey Island no matter what is probably less than 1 percent. It's not 8 percent or however much it ends up getting in this match.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!

Note:

I'm not saying that hardcore fanbases that vote for anything don't exist. Just that if it ever comes into play it's gonna be for something who's hardcore fanbase is in the teens (FF, LoZ) not Monkey ****ing Island.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!

Rank these series in terms of being the biggest busts of the contest (higher means worse).

Mega Man
Sonic
Street Fighter
Halo
Grand Theft Auto

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

I'm not disappointed in SMB3, I'm impressed by Sonic. How many of us thought Sonic 2/3 would be stronger than Sonic 1? How many of us thought SF2 would beat it in R1? How many of us thought SMB3 would kill Sonic 1?

Sonic 1 has done quite well for itself. It should be the end of the line for it next round, but it's worked hard this contest.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!

Technically, Mario 3 IS killing Sonic 1 (I'd consider 70/30 a killing, but that's just me). It's just not killing it as badly as we thought.
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From: KamikazePotato | #130
Rank these series in terms of being the biggest busts of the contest (higher means worse).

Mega Man
Sonic
Street Fighter
Halo
Grand Theft Auto

The Sonic series has done nothing to deserve being listed with those other 4. Sonic 1 surpassed expectations twice, Sonic 2 has met expectations and Sonic 3 did what was expected when up against two popular Nintendo games.
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.

I still doubt that Sonic 1 is stronger than Sonic 2. It doesn't make any sense at all. >_>

Then again Sonic 1 was the bracket favourite over the god father of fighting while freaking Mortal sucking Kombat 2 was the bracket favourte over Sonic 2....... >_>
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me

Sonic 3 did what was expected when up against two popular Nintendo games.

After the fact reasoning.
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I agree with Smurf a bit, I think it's more in how much we underestimated Super Mario Kart and overestimated SFF (Zelda > Contra being the guru favorite...)
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. FastFalcon05 > Me

Maybe for you, if you've ever watched Sonic in a 4-way poll with Nintendo involved it should have been obvious it was going to happen.
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I'm pretty sure that in a few days we'll get proof that MKII is stronger than SFII.

Sonic is still gaining ground. This might be 68/32 by the time it's over, which I consider very disappointing. And Mario might not even break 49%, which is significantly below where most of us had it. I wonder what the Hedgehog will manage next round sandwiched between two Mario games. It's kinda tough not to imagine an even better performance.
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

And Sonic's going up .03% every update. Pretty impressive.

Maybe for you, if you've ever watched Sonic in a 4-way poll with Nintendo involved it should have been obvious it was going to happen.

What did you have in your bracket, just out of curiosity?
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Not rankings...

Mega Man: 2 failed, 3 did as expected while X failed against LA it did well against FFVI, not too sure there.
Sonic: 1 impressed us twice, 2 did as expected while 3 flopped
Street Fighter: 4 flopped though 2 isn't doing half bad against SMB3, just that Sonic 1 is more impressive.
Halo: 1 losing to Diablo II may look bad, but considering how well KotOR did what were you expecting? 2 and 3 both did as expected.
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City, 3 and 4 all did as expected while San Andreas flopped.

Just because one game flopped doesn't mean the whole series flopped.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144

It sucks because unless Link's Awakening bombs, it looks like I called both the other Sonic games, but there's gotta be one to give me the finger. I hate Sonic and his stupid attitude.
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Maybe for you, if you've ever watched Sonic in a 4-way poll with Nintendo involved it should have been obvious it was going to happen.

Sonic failed against a Nintendo character once. Maybe the overlap isn't as bad as some thought.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144

My MMX>Sonic 2 pic is going to be so validated when LA tears Sonic 2 a worse hole than it did MMX.

Can't complain about handheld strength considering what it did for Pokeymanz, but damnit LA!

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http://thengamer.com/guru/

Can't complain about handheld strength considering what it did for Pokeymanz, but damnit LA!

You know the only handheld games to have done badly were Fire Emblem and Phoenix Wright. Maybe they aren't as different from consoles as we thought.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144

Pokemon and Link's Awakening are about the only handheld games I'd expect to have decent strength around here. Well, maybe NSMB, but somehow I doubt it.
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Sonic has been bad in this format when other Nintendo characters have been thrown in the mix.

2007
Knuckles losing handily to Yoshi (twice)
Tails losing to The Boss with Zelda in the poll

2008
Shadow losing handily to Zidane with Link in the poll
Knuckles losing handily to Zelda despite Mario in the poll
Sonic losing to Kirby

2009
Sonic 3 losing handily to SMK and Metroid

This might be the first case where Sonic has actually done well in this format against Nintendo.
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

oh right, so the witch hunt is over then. Great.
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Justice for FD
"This topic is now about Renee Walker aka Rack Bauer." - LostHisHardcore http://i39.tinypic.com/2ps1s76.jpg

All of those cases you could argue that Nintendo had nothing to do with those losses. None of those results surprise me other than Sonic losing to Kirby, but you're getting into rSFF territory there if you want to argue it was because of Nintendo. Sonic has just looked like crap the last two or three years, even when Nintendo wasn't involved. I think it's just a coincidence that they happened to lose with Nintendo characters in the poll. Heck, you don't have many examples of Sonic NOT dealing with Nintendo characters other than Sonic himself.

And don't forget Tails getting 4th place with DK in the poll! Or Shadow looking like crap with Bowser in the poll! But seriously, Tails, Shadow, and Knuckles looked like crap anyway.
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