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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 711

xp1337 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:38:21 PM | message detail
SMW's path to never losing % in a 5 minute update - Next up, 12:40 Update.

SMW will probably crash once the night vote arrives and Asia starts mass voting FFIV.


Of course it will, but until that happens this is hilarious. >_>
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
ChronicBoom | Posted 5/11/2009 9:38:22 PM | message detail
wow smw just demolishing... I still like FFIV to advance, but I think Mario 3 has 1st wrapped up.

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He who shall not be named.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 9:39:03 PM | message detail

From: ChronicBoom | #452
but I think Mario 3 has 1st wrapped up.


that makes no sense. why would it have first wrapped up when at this point, it might not even advance at all?
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hochiminhX | Posted 5/11/2009 9:39:27 PM | message detail
Remember when Bowser overperformed on Sigma because of the pic and people got nostalgic? Same thing is happening here. The pic is making people nostalgic.


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ChronicBoom | Posted 5/11/2009 9:39:37 PM | message detail
albion post
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He who shall not be named.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/11/2009 9:39:54 PM | message detail
Looks like over 100% overlap. I am seriously puzzled by this, especially since Mario World is looking good to finish above 50%.

I bring up the case once again: remove Jinjo and Lucas, make Big Boss vs. Kirby a traditional 1v1, and I wouldn't be surprised if Kirby gained more than 100% of the votes that Jinjo and Lucas left behind.

This. Format. Is. ****ed. Up.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:40:15 PM | message detail
Mario 3 can do to Mario World what FFIV's doing to FFI here, and I won't be surprised. Does anyone honestly think that FFIV is worlds above FFI, even after this?

'Cause I don't.

I do think Mario World is more favored among the Mario fanbase than FFI is among the FF fanbase, so I think it will hold up better, but even if Mario 3 and Mario World are on relatively equal footing, Mario 3 will still beat it.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 9:40:22 PM | message detail

From: ChronicBoom | #455
albion post


Seriously, if anything FF4 is looking good for first since the LFF between SMW and SMB3 is gonna be harsh. They'll be battling for second.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:40:28 PM | message detail
SMW still rising!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
transience | Posted 5/11/2009 9:40:36 PM | message detail
holy balls. go SMW.

there's two ways to look at this -- that Mario World is for realz or that fanbase splits within series will murder SMW next round. I dunno which.

anyway, this proves what I expected - that inter-series overlap would clearly exist. inter-company overlap is still pretty sketchy though. FF8/FF9/Starcraft could be anywhere.

lol MM against Nintendo (damn you Tetris)
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:41:10 PM | message detail
Three straight updates of Mario World over 56% here. This is insane.
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 5/11/2009 9:41:12 PM | message detail
Augh FFIV dying

Still gaining on FF1 though, so I'm cool.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:41:31 PM | message detail
It all makes sense Mega Man 3 is actually a Final Fantasy game.

SMW is almost getting what it got against FF last round.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FFIV Points: 105/152
creativename | Posted 5/11/2009 9:41:38 PM | message detail
FF4 could definitely use a better pic next round.

It'll inevitably have one that's better, I just hope it's significantly so.

I still can't get over had bad this one is.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:41:50 PM | message detail
But that was the best Snake pic we've ever seen, I've always thought that was more responsible for the result than Jinjo (pretty tangentially related to Kirby) and Lucas (poor kid nearly set a low percentage record).
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 5/11/2009 9:42:18 PM | message detail
FFIV has had two terrible pics so far. It better finally get a good one next round!
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/11/2009 9:42:35 PM | message detail
Votals are a notch below yesterday's as well, so there's no reason to suspect any LUE shenanigans or anything.

Mario World, grab yourself a seat between FFVII and OoT - you have earned it or something!
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/11/2009 9:42:40 PM | message detail
FF4's going to do well next round, that should be certain; it will look like the Nintendo-killer. Hopefully SMW continues to dominate this match and somehow pull some crazy trick out of its sleeve to upset SMB3 for second, maybe first place (which I don't know if SMB3's THAT certain to be the fanbase favorite anymore, Leonhart; it feels like it's spread out a lot comparing how SMB, SMW, and SM64 have done so far)...but FF2/4 will avenge this match with a worse LFF-situation.
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Prototype
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:42:40 PM | message detail
I don't have a problem thinking Naked Snake/Big Boss could beat Kirby. Heck, he wasn't that far off in round 2 with an old man pic and Raiden dragging him down.
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Lopen | Posted 5/11/2009 9:42:55 PM | message detail
I bring up the case once again: remove Jinjo and Lucas, make Big Boss vs. Kirby a traditional 1v1, and I wouldn't be surprised if Kirby gained more than 100% of the votes that Jinjo and Lucas left behind.

I actually agree with this.

The voters are making statements. It's not so much "sore thumb" factor as "get this crap outta here" factor.

BOLD PREDICTION: Starcraft exceeds last round's percentage this round!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:43:41 PM | message detail
(which I don't know if SMB3's THAT certain to be the fanbase favorite anymore, Leonhart; it feels like it's spread out a lot comparing how SMB, SMW, and SM64 have done so far)

This sounds like the exact same stuff some people were saying about Final Fantasy less than an hour ago!

Mario 3 WILL beat Mario World. I have no doubt about that.
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creativename | Posted 5/11/2009 9:43:57 PM | message detail
It all makes sense Mega Man 3 is actually a Final Fantasy game.

Wily=Hojo. You didn't know?
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transience | Posted 5/11/2009 9:44:37 PM | message detail
Mario 3's the obvious #1 next round. anyone arguing otherwise clearly didn't see FF1 get 45% on it.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:45:13 PM | message detail
is LUE doing anything silly in this match? Just wondering. <_<;

No, there are no topics relating to this match on either LUE or LL.

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xp1337 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:45:43 PM | message detail
SMW still rising, but slowing down a bit compared to recently.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
Lopen | Posted 5/11/2009 9:45:43 PM | message detail
FF1 got 40% on SMB3, tran.

Just sayin.
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WarThaHedgehog | Posted 5/11/2009 9:45:45 PM | message detail
That's better, FFIV. Now make SMW lose %.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:45:47 PM | message detail
Yeah despite this performance I'd still give SMB3 > FFIV as the favourite.

Yet with each update SMW increases in percent.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FFIV Points: 105/152
hochiminhX | Posted 5/11/2009 9:46:10 PM | message detail
Mario 3's the obvious #1 next round. anyone arguing otherwise clearly didn't see FF1 get 45% on it.


Clearly you missed Sonic 1 getting 32% on SMB3.


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MetricTrout | Posted 5/11/2009 9:46:30 PM | message detail
Heck, the 2004 contest has Mario 3 winning 57/43, and I think their raw strengths are closer than that (I think Mario 3 overperformed). It will be a surprisingly respectable performance - there'll be no Nintendo SFF blasting there.

I think it has more to do with Chrono Trigger SFFing SMW more than SMB3.

Plus, SMW should have reason to gain strength since 2004. It was the best selling non-Pokemon GBA game, after all.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:47:19 PM | message detail
Starcraft can still go deep into the contest. It wasn't strong in round 1 of the 2004 contest either (lol Halo), but by round 4 it was right up there with SSBM and FFX. If it reaches that level again, it can beat FFVIII straight up with no fanbase split at all. It won't, at least not until the later rounds if it gets bandwagoned, but there's still a lot of potential left in that game.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:48:00 PM | message detail
Plus, SMW should have reason to gain strength since 2004. It was the best selling non-Pokemon GBA game, after all.

You mean the one released in 2002?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FFIV Points: 105/152
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:48:44 PM | message detail
Well, the difference between FFVIII and FFIX (to me) is that FFVIII is clearly stronger than FFIX. The difference between FFI and FFIV strength-wise doesn't seem to be that big indirectly.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 9:48:53 PM | message detail
I love how people just are obsessed with their stats and can't think the demographics may have changed in the last 5 years to make SMW stronger now.
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:49:27 PM | message detail
Well i hate to say it but we may have to expect the unexpected.

Practically no one thought Tales of Symphonia would be able to step up to the plate, yet it most certainly did and shocked everyone (not to mention cause one helluva leaderboard collapse).
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ChronicBoom | Posted 5/11/2009 9:49:35 PM | message detail
albion post
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/11/2009 9:49:43 PM | message detail
Oh, yeah, SMB3's almost certainly getting first. I just thought you were insinuating SMB3 was easily most people's favorite SMB-game, and I dunno if it's still as big of a favorite anymore since SMB, SMW, and SM64 have been impressing and SMB3 didn't look as hot as usual.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:50:03 PM | message detail
I love how people just are obsessed with their stats and can't think the demographics may have changed in the last 5 years to make SMW stronger now.

This has absolutely nothing to do with stats. Picking Mario World > Mario 3 would be a stat-based decision more than Mario 3 > Mario World would be.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:50:39 PM | message detail
Still a percent increase...
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BGE2 - Today's Match: SMW > FFIV Points: 105/152
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:50:43 PM | message detail
I think people are making Mario 3's performance out to be worse than it really was. 50% against two classic games is a good performance.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:50:51 PM | message detail
Only +.02% for SMW that time. It might lose % for the first time before the Power Hour ends.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 9:51:03 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #488
I love how people just are obsessed with their stats and can't think the demographics may have changed in the last 5 years to make SMW stronger now.

This has absolutely nothing to do with stats. Picking Mario World > Mario 3 would be a stat-based decision more than Mario 3 > Mario World would be.


Previous stats have shown SMB3 > SMW, yet people are ignoring this year that SMW just looks a lot better.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/11/2009 9:51:21 PM | message detail
I love how people just are obsessed with their stats and can't think the demographics may have changed in the last 5 years to make SMW stronger now.

They also need to accept that Max Payne could beat Link next contest!

Actually, forget that. I'll leave the stupid posts to you.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/11/2009 9:51:37 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #490
I think people are making Mario 3's performance out to be worse than it really was. 50% against two classic games is a good performance.


You gave it 60%. Please don't try to pass this by anyone.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:52:01 PM | message detail
Previous stats have shown SMB3 > SMW, yet people are ignoring this year that SMW just looks a lot better.

That is a stat-based decision. People argued that FFI looked better than FFIV last round (and it arguably did), and look where that got it.

Mario 3 > Mario World is a common sense pick, like Mario 1 > Zelda 1 like FFIV > FFI.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 9:52:20 PM | message detail
SMB3 has no excuse to get only 48% against 2 lower end games and turbo fodder.

No excuse at all.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 9:52:32 PM | message detail
You gave it 60%. Please don't try to pass this by anyone.

Just because I overshot it doesn't mean Mario 3 put up a bad performance.
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Big Bob | Posted 5/11/2009 9:52:41 PM | message detail
Next round I've got FFIV > SMW?

Why?

Because despite all evidence pointing to SMB3 > SMW, I liked Mario World better and sided with it. >_> The sole fanboy pick in my bracket...
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Xcarvenger | Posted 5/11/2009 9:52:42 PM | message detail
Who would have thought that the highest % this round is gonna go to Super Mario World

The only challenger left is FFVII. c'mon N64 Multiplayer/Mario double LFFs do your magic
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RockMFR 5 | Posted 5/11/2009 9:52:55 PM | message detail
http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/8291/linkmariosamuscrono2.png
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