GameFAQs Contests

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~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.

Hochi's League of Excellence™

Hochiminh
Nintendogirl
Karma Hunter
Kleenex
Leonhart
Ultimaterializer
ZFS
Lopen
Yoblazer
Harrich
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid

http://www.urban75.org/photos/brighton/images/br162.jpg
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.

828777
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http://www.court-records.net/manga/4koma/(eng)4koma2.png
Hail FastFalcon, our new guru overlord!

867-5309
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

I'd take Zelda/Metroid/Ninja Gaiden over this pack, easily.

Oooh!

You're just trolling again.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SMB > LoZ - Points: 100 Vote: SMB

http://members.fortunecity.com/pryorb/ken_shoyuken.gif
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg

From: MarioSuperstar | #005
I'd take Zelda/Metroid/Ninja Gaiden over this pack, easily.

Oooh!

You're just trolling again.

Uh, how? Creaming a borderline top 10 game is more impressive then what Mario Bros 3 is doing here.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg

55/45 is creaming now?
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

yes
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Just wanted to make sure.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

It's not unreasonable to think Mario 1 might be right next to or just a hair below Mario 3's level indirectly. I don't buy this trio being stronger than the one SMB took out yesterday - not at all. In a match between Metroid, Zelda, Sonic, and SFII, I'd easily take the Zelda/Metroid combo to get well over 50% of the vote. Also, SMB's 70.54% against much stronger competition in Round 1 (does anyone doubt Ninja Gaiden and Duck Hunt would demolish SMB3's first round opponents?) looks great as well.
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Yoblazer: http://i42.tinypic.com/avk9ie.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Plus, struggling to get 50% against this 4pack is just pathetic. I was expecting at least 55% if we'er going by old SMB3 strength. I just can't see it being that much stronger then smb now if at all.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg

Mario 3 getting 50%+ updates almost every time now. It should finish at 49%+ by the time this is done if it can keep this up.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

Metroid/Ninja gaiden (SFF'D) would come nowhere close to SF and Sonic.

Then getting 55% on a game that has nowhere to go but down doesn't make it look better. I could buy them being equal, but I'll never buy SMB being stronger. There's a reason it missed the games contest 5 years ago.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SMB > LoZ - Points: 100 Vote: SMB

I was expecting at least 55%

Then you had unrealistic expectations.
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Kleenex...at work!

Hardly. It wasn't unrealistic to think Mario 3 would triple Sonic 1. We have seen several cases of more severe SFF in this format - look at Mario's 83% on Metroid yesterday. We'll see plenty more as these later rounds continue, and we've seen a crapton from Character Battles. A tripling on Sonic would put SMB3 somewhere in the 50s.
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

It not getting 55% wouldn't mean it's underperforming though. Nobody ever considered the possibility that Sonic could just get the same general percentage on any well-received old Mario game.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SMB3 > SFII - Points: 108 Vote: SMB3

Metroid had Mario 1 and Zelda to deal with. Take out Zelda and it doesn't get pummeled nearly as much.
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Kleenex...at work!

*wakes up, logs onto GameFAQs and nervously checks the poll*

...

http://i43.tinypic.com/72yh5s.gif

Figured Sonic would be in the lead. SF is close now but Sonic should end this with the ASV.

Oh well, I blame Mario 3 here. I had high expectations and it didn't SFF Sonic as hard as I expected. I'm disappointed with this performance.
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 35 - Bracket: SMB3 > SF2 - Vote: Sonic (99/144)

From: Master Moltar | #020
*wakes up, logs onto GameFAQs and nervously checks the poll*

...

http://i43.tinypic.com/72yh5s.gif

Figured Sonic would be in the lead. SF is close now but Sonic should end this with the ASV.

Oh well, I blame Mario 3 here. I had high expectations and it didn't SFF Sonic as hard as I expected. I'm disappointed with this performance.

Its hardly over. Sonic is just dying to Mario SFF now unlike last night. Sonic is the favorite, sure. But SF still has a shot here.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg

It's still a case of severe SFF, no? Zelda even did better on Metroid despite Mario 1 there to hold Zelda down a bit. We're going to see a lot of this stuff, especially when these Nintendo games go up against each other.

Which is why this is a disappointing performance. Mario 3 should not be letting Sonic 1 outdo Sonic 2's performance on Mario World from years ago. I'll attribute most of this to the battle for second and Mario's relatively unappealing picture, but I was still expecting more.
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Yoblazer: http://i38.tinypic.com/2s024p4.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Match is over, SF will stall for a while and Sonic will bury him with the ASV. The notion of Street Fighter winning the ASV over Sonic is notorious.
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.

If you'd vote Sonic 2 over Mario World, I find it hard to believe that that many more people would have Sonic 1 > Mario 3.

It's just "Mario games or Sonic games" to me.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SMB3 > SFII - Points: 108 Vote: SMB3

From: SmurfFAQs | #023
Match is over, SF will stall for a while and Sonic will bury him with the ASV. The notion of Street Fighter winning the ASV over Sonic is notorious.

It won the day on a Saturday match, so it isn't THAT out there.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg

I know this is blasphemy around here, but maybe Sonic 1 is actually the strongest Sonic game and not 2?

I mean, it's like everyone's calling for a bomb unless the top game gets 80% or something. Mario 3's not going above and beyond here or anything, but it's certainly not disappointing, considering it's going to end pretty close to 50% here when all's said and done.
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Kleenex...at work!

er, many less people* i think.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SMB3 > SFII - Points: 108 Vote: SMB3

Though SF2 really should start should getting cuts soon heading into the day vote if it wants a chance.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg

I know this is blasphemy around here, but maybe Sonic 1 is actually the strongest Sonic game and not 2?

I wouldn't argue that; it's not like I know much about the Sonic games. Still, we know that Mario 3 is a clear notch or two ahead of World, and that Sonic games have looked bad here and that Sonic in general has been awful in this format. Put them all together, and I expected at least a tripling from Mario.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

I think people forget just how hard it is to break 50% in a 4-way. We got spoiled by the turbofodder in Round 1. Sonic 1 is not fodder. SF2 is not fodder. Monkey Island is..well whatever.

The point stands, though.
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Kleenex...at work!

From: The Mana Sword | #026
I know this is blasphemy around here, but maybe Sonic 1 is actually the strongest Sonic game and not 2?

I can buy this unless Sonic 2 does something spectacular in its match.
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 35 - Bracket: SMB3 > SF2 - Vote: Sonic (99/144)

From: The Mana Sword | #030
I think people forget just how hard it is to break 50% in a 4-way. We got spoiled by the turbofodder in Round 1. Sonic 1 is not fodder. SF2 is not fodder. Monkey Island is..well whatever.

The point stands, though.

About Monkey Island... its doing 4% better against SMB3 then round 1 for whatever that means.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg

I know this is blasphemy around here, but maybe Sonic 1 is actually the strongest Sonic game and not 2?

Sonic 3 & Knuckles would be winning this match.

I don't mean over SF2. I mean over SMB3!

>_>
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #025
It won the day on a Saturday match, so it isn't THAT out there.

...wtf

From this point to the end of the poll last round Sonic gained 1.50% while SFII lost 1.50%, how the hell is that winning the day?
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Smurf
60% of the time he's awesome every time.

From: SmurfFAQs | #034
...wtf

From this point to the end of the poll last round Sonic gained 1.50% while SFII lost 1.50%, how the hell is that winning the day?

-shrug- I was looking at the asv time and seemed to me SF2 did slightly better.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg

oh albion. You need to learn a thing or two about these contests, nobody in their right mind who understands these things would ever...ever claim Street Fighter in any form would be taking the ASV over Sonic. -_-

To put it in terms you might understand, it'd be like waiting for Castlevania to surge back and overtake Halo when the schools close. Not gonna happen, bub.
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(\__/) Meet Ziggy,the Evil Bunny who wants to take over the world and eat the flesh of the weak.
(='.'=] Put Ziggy in your sig to support his cause.

To put it in terms you might understand, it'd be like waiting for Castlevania to surge back and overtake Halo when the schools close. Not gonna happen, bub.

xD
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg

Personally, I felt Sonic 1 and SF2 did roughly even during the ASV relative to their own percentages. Sonic 1 was still fairly consistently still pulling in a greater % of votes during the day than SF2, but not by enough that I don't think SMB3 could still pose a problem to Sonic.

However, SMB3 is doing significantly worse than I expected (I was hoping around 55%), so perhaps there's just not enough here to stop Sonic anyway.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile

Hey, to be fair, Castlevania didn't need the ASV to save it against Halo, it was already ahead wasn't it? I mean, Castlevania won the day anyway, but I don't think it needed it for a comeback!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile

Sonic likely has this though. SF2 needs to be cutting now during the school vote if it wanted a chance.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg

Street Fighter losing is my bracket's death.

...Had it going to the top 8.
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AC:WW Code: Name:Mr.378 Town:Darkcity FC: 4210-5769-8462
GENO WHIRL!

I agree that Sonic probably has it, I just wouldn't call it a lock yet, SMB3 could still destroy Sonic during the ASV, but I wouldn't call that likely anymore.

My barometer always was, "If Sonic goes into the ASV with a lead, Sonic is the favorite to place", and that looks extremely likely right now.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #032
About Monkey Island... its doing 4% better against SMB3 then round 1 for whatever that means.

That would be more about MI being independent then anything else.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SMB3 > SFII - Points: 108 Vote: SMB3

What in the blue hell was SF doing cutting an hour ago.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!

Street Fighter, you suck so much
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg

oh albion. You need to learn a thing or two about these contests, nobody in their right mind who understands these things would ever...ever claim Street Fighter in any form would be taking the ASV over Sonic. -_-

Anyone that's learned 'a thing or two' about these contests knows more than anything else how much you let your fanboyism get in the way of reason whenever it comes to a match involving sonic. >_>

just saying
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"A casual stroll through the lunatic asylum shows that faith does not prove anything." - Friedrich Nietzsche
http://www.last.fm/user/dragoontheguy

Although I agree that sf2 taking the asv is really, really unlikely.

But I wouldn't put it entirely out of the question.
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"A casual stroll through the lunatic asylum shows that faith does not prove anything." - Friedrich Nietzsche
http://www.last.fm/user/dragoontheguy

You can't really disagree that Sonic 1 has the advantage now...
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144

It's still a case of severe SFF, no? Zelda even did better on Metroid despite Mario 1 there to hold Zelda down a bit.

Of course it did better because Mario 1 was SFFing Metroid far worse than it was SFFing Zelda. I'd be shocked if Metroid performed better against Zelda compared to the last round.

Heck, it's debatable if Mario 1 was SFFing Zelda at all. It was only 55/45, after all.
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif

I don't think anyone is denying that.
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"A casual stroll through the lunatic asylum shows that faith does not prove anything." - Friedrich Nietzsche
http://www.last.fm/user/dragoontheguy