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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 710

PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/10/2009 10:16:33 PM | message detail
Sonic is busting stuffed updates out of his irrelevant blue ass now. Sonic fans, I understand you're jealous that SFIV is a higher rated, more well received game than anything the Sonic series has produced in the last 15 years, but this is no way to deal with it. Just let things be. And go on with your lives.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 10:17:57 PM | message detail
Sonic burying imminent.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/10/2009 10:20:21 PM | message detail
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Super_Mario_World_vs_Sonic_the_Hedgehog_2_2004
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/10/2009 10:20:40 PM | message detail
wrong way sf
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 10:20:56 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 10:21:19 PM | message detail
Sonic is refusing to cooperate with the wishes of the League of Excellence.

Your orders?
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/10/2009 10:26:14 PM | message detail
From: LeonhartFour
Sonic is refusing to cooperate with the wishes of the League of Excellence.

Your orders?


I guess we just wait for the SF to win. That's what He said.
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No?
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 10:27:17 PM | message detail
I'm going to allow this.
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ffmasterjose | Posted 5/10/2009 10:36:24 PM | message detail
Chyeah
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110/144 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Super Mario Bros. 3 > SF II | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/10/2009 10:47:51 PM | message detail
and here comes the night vote. hopefully SF2 can build a big enough lead
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/10/2009 10:47:53 PM | message detail
Well, I'm not sure how much of a lead SFII is going to build, but I'm not sure a couple hundred votes will save it from an ASV and morning vote.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SMB > LoZ - Points: 100 Vote: SMB
transience | Posted 5/10/2009 10:48:26 PM | message detail
this lead will be over 500 by morning.

and it'll vanish, probably. it's a matter of how big it can go.
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xyzzy
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/10/2009 10:50:41 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=3450&type=2&seconds=60&max=0

the morning vote is what Sonic really needs to win this. Since they went about even with the asv last match...
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 5/10/2009 11:02:16 PM | message detail
I think that was a Saturday match though. Which is actually bad for SFII. Usually the starting vote is stronger for the day game on weekend matches, because Americans are able to stay up for it. That means Sonic should rise even more for this match, all else being equal.
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FastFalcon and Solid Snake snapped my neck in the guru contest.
Yesmar | Posted 5/10/2009 11:02:34 PM | message detail
the morning vote is what Sonic really needs to win this. Since they went about even with the asv last match...

The last match was on a weekend, IIRC.
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FastFalcon owned me in the Guru Contest!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/10/2009 11:03:20 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/10/2009 11:04:16 PM | message detail
YEah you're right, I thought contest started on a Friday for some reason so I thought it was a Tuesday
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/10/2009 11:07:24 PM | message detail
Currently Super Mario Bros. 3 is flirting with 50%, which is suggesting another SFF blowout. The good news is that it's really anyone's guess on who take 2nd place. If Sonic 1 wins, then I know that I'm in for more crazy upsets. If SFII wins, then I know I should stick with my bracket. I will now predict the next match, but first, let's recap the games.

Super Mario World - A launch title for the #1 Nintendo console, Super Mario World made Nintendo enter the 4th generation of gaming with absolute pride, taking advantage of new technology to make an adventure dwarfing previous Mario titles by quite a lot, not to mention Yoshi's debut. Did you guys know that Shigeru Miyamoto originally thought that the game was rushed? Well, it doesn't really seem like that, as Super Mario World is one of the few games that deserves to win this contest. Mario World turned 2 hyped matches into duds last time; after delivering the 2nd largest blowout of its division against The Simpsons Arcade, SMW owned Sonic 2 in a match that seemed more debated than you'd think from a 70-30 blowout. Then it seemed that SMW would have a chance at taking down Chrono Trigger, but SMW barely broke 40% in the end. This time Mario World has looked good so far, winning the highest vote drawing match.

Final Fantasy - This was a technical achievement for the NES, and it started one of this site's big three franchises. Since day one Final Fantasy cemented itself as the most popular NES title on this site not published by Nintendo, blowing out Pitfall and Contra last time and putting a good number on Super Mario 3. This time it has put a good number on Mario World. Another thing to mention is that Final Fantasy had the highest vote total out of all games that didn't win (aka take 1st place) their match.

Final Fantasy IV - Another SNES launch title, and this one was perhaps the first Final Fantasy to have a huge, emotional story like the series is associated with today. One wouldn't think it would be very popular on this site, as FFIV wasn't even in the contest last time and it didn't even make the top 50 in the list. But FFIV owned its first match with ease, even breaking 55k votes in the process.

Mega Man 3 - Another game that doesn't look popular on this site at first glance, but it put a good number on FFIV and broke 38k votes. Any questions about one of the best Mega Man games?

So Super Mario World will take 1st place, methinks. Mega Man 3 should crumble under SFF, but it should hold Mario World back so that its percentage on Final Fantasy doesn't really change. And I would think that Final Fantasy IV is stronger than Final Fantasy I. Looking at the only thing we have, the vote totals, gives FFIV an advantage over its predecessor. There's even a possibility that MM3 sneaks in for 2nd, as we don't know Mario's capability to SFF Mega Man, but I will assume that MM3 shares a fanbase with SMW and so will take last, though I won't be so surprised if it snuck in to take 2nd place.

Super Mario World - 35%, Final Fantasy - 20%, Final Fantasy IV - 30%, Mega Man 3 - 15%
Prediction: Super Mario World > Final Fantasy IV
Bracket: Super Mario World > Final Fantasy IV
Favorites: Super Mario World > Final Fantasy IV
Favorites Bracket: Super Mario World > Final Fantasy IV

dun dun dun...
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 11:07:32 PM | message detail
Yep, SFII taking off now. Let's see how high it can go before Sonic attempts the comeback in the morning. Could be a good one.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 11:11:47 PM | message detail
Well, there's Sonic with a sizable cut
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/10/2009 11:12:30 PM | message detail
And SF2 makes the premonition a reality. Just how much can you suck before you're satisfied
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 5/10/2009 11:12:40 PM | message detail
SFII still isn't able to do much of anything. I'd be amazed if Sonic didn't end up winning this.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 11:16:14 PM | message detail
And from the looks of the early numbers, Civilization and CVIII are going to be way down there with Monkey Island and SimCity, if not below them.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 11:17:33 PM | message detail
Mario 3's bleeding like crazy, as expected. It should rip faces with the ASV tomorrow. Sonic's a morning game, but it's not an ASV game.
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Janus5000 | Posted 5/10/2009 11:19:31 PM | message detail
Monkey Island gets its first update above 10%!

Hmmm. SFII in the lead right now isn't too surprising, but it doesn't seem to do building it up right now. Sonic shouldn't have much of a problem kiddying SFII into oblivion.
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Stay a while and breathe me in.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/10/2009 11:19:33 PM | message detail
all aboard the mario 1 > mario 3 train
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 11:20:22 PM | message detail
I'm afraid you'll be the only passenger on that train. There's no doubt this is a better fourpack, and Mario 3's going to end up with around 50% before it's over.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/10/2009 11:21:34 PM | message detail
Huh, Mario 3 is losing ground here despite being the obvious favorite. Don't expect it to win the ASV over Sonic- it lost the day vote handily to Zelda and went even with Chrono Trigger last time.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 11:22:08 PM | message detail
Mario 3 is the only Nintendo game here. It's going to go up.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/10/2009 11:22:21 PM | message detail
Monkey Island Round 2 (atm) > Monkey Island Round 1 with 53.17%.

And that'll look worse once Europe's come and gone. Aww yeah hardcore fanbase.
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<.<
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/10/2009 11:22:49 PM | message detail
more 40+ gains plz
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Janus5000 | Posted 5/10/2009 11:23:29 PM | message detail
Sonic was closer to Monkey Island than SFII that update. Awesome.

If SFII keeps that up (which is doubtful) this might actually end up being a decent match.
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Stay a while and breathe me in.
red sox 777 | Posted 5/10/2009 11:28:23 PM | message detail
It'll go up because SF2 and Monkey Island are horrid with the day vote, yes, but among Nintendo games, SMB3's day vote is about as bad as it gets, at least according to 2004. Had it gained as much on CT with the day as SMW did, it would have won. Yesterday's graph looks amazingly similar to SMB3/Zelda 1's graph, so I'd guess those trends are probably reliable here.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/10/2009 11:29:00 PM | message detail
when you're losing the night vote to sonic, you know you suck
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hochiminhX | Posted 5/10/2009 11:32:03 PM | message detail
CT was actually good with the day vote in 2004. Remember, it went 50/50 with Lttp all day
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I will bury you.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/10/2009 11:32:57 PM | message detail
mario under 49%

how low can you go
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/10/2009 11:41:24 PM | message detail
LTTP isn't exactly great with the day vote either, and it still gained about 3% from 6 AM to the end, whereas SMB3 couldn't manage 1%. CT's day vote was at best average in 2004- and being average with the day vote basically puts you at the bottom of the barrel when we're talking about Nintendo games.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
jonthomson | Posted 5/10/2009 11:44:00 PM | message detail
meh, i hope sf2 can hold. then maybe people will actually believe mario>sonic platform sff that i've been going on about for five years
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Jon Thomson - 1:10 pure 1:43 100% - HKP: 179
Super Metroid's Path To Glory: R2 vs. Super Mario Kart, A Link to the Past, Donkey Kong Country
red sox 777 | Posted 5/10/2009 11:44:31 PM | message detail
Look at Monkey Island go. It's going to be consistently pulling in 10% updates after 4 AM.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/10/2009 11:45:42 PM | message detail
So most 2d Nintendo titles are bad with the ASV? Makes sense. It also seems that Super Mario Galaxy stunk it up during the same timeframe.

So among Nintendo games, it seems that only the 3d Zelda games and Smash series do well with the ASV? Is that correct?
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/10/2009 11:46:29 PM | message detail
This is a pretty unimpressive performance from Mario 3. Even if it gets a great day vote, it won't do much (any?) better on Sonic 1 than Mario World did on Sonic 2. This is despite a format that's known for more drastic SFF beatings, and despite SMB3 being the stronger Mario game. I was very confident Sonic wouldn't be able to avoid the tripling, and now there's a chance he can avoid 70/30.

From: LeonhartFour | #377
I'm afraid you'll be the only passenger on that train. There's no doubt this is a better fourpack, and Mario 3's going to end up with around 50% before it's over.


Better than the opponents Mario 1 just beat? I disagree if that's what you're referring to. Zelda would crush any of these three.
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Yoblazer: http://i37.tinypic.com/x1d2s9.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/10/2009 11:48:54 PM | message detail
Sonic wins this. If its doing constant cuts on SF at this point of night, then SF won't be able to build the lead it needs.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/10/2009 11:52:02 PM | message detail
I think it's just a function of how old the games are. The more recent it is, the better the day vote, at least among Nintendo games. GC/Wii > N64 > SNES > NES. 'Cept Zelda 1 does very well among the younger fans who got into gaming at a time when Zelda was/is Nintendo's biggest series, Pokemania notwithstanding.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/10/2009 11:55:19 PM | message detail
This is a pretty unimpressive performance from Mario 3. Even if it gets a great day vote, it won't do much (any?) better on Sonic 1 than Mario World did on Sonic 2. This is despite a format that's known for more drastic SFF beatings, and despite SMB3 being the stronger Mario game. I was very confident Sonic wouldn't be able to avoid the tripling, and now there's a chance he can avoid 70/30.

It's Mario/Sonic, weird stuff happens. Shadow once put up about 45% on Mario, after all. The other thing is I think it's very hard in 4-ways for the obvious winner to SFF a game that's in a contested match. Switch the roles though, so that the weaker game is doomed and the stronger game needs votes to survive or win, and you get a beatdown, like Cloud/Sephiroth.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/10/2009 11:56:57 PM | message detail
Hm,

SFFd Legend of Zelda/SFFd Metroid/SFFd Ninja Gaiden vs. SFFd Sonic the Hedgehog/SFFd Street Fighter II/SFFd Secret of Monkey Island. Who've you got?

But yeah, nothing we've seen from Mario 3 this contest really cements it as being stronger than Mario 1.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/10/2009 11:58:05 PM | message detail
all this SF sucking is too much for me to take. I'm going to bed
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transience | Posted 5/11/2009 12:04:20 AM | message detail
This is despite a format that's known for more drastic SFF beatings

where'd you get this from? it seems quite the opposite to me.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 5/11/2009 12:05:09 AM | message detail
anyway, Sonic's got this unless something strange happens, and it doesn't look like it's going to.
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yzzyx
red sox 777 | Posted 5/11/2009 12:08:00 AM | message detail
Some fun with numbers:

Using yesterday's match and SMB3/Zelda 2k4, SMB is projected to get 47.73% on SMB3.

Using today's match and yesterday's, assuming Zelda + Metroid + Ninja Gaiden = SF2 + Sonic + Monkey Island, and SMB3's current percentage....

SMB gets 47.45% on SMB3. Surprisingly similar, but probably meaningless.
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Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests.
Mr Purge | Posted 5/11/2009 12:10:23 AM | message detail
Isn't SFII going to wreck Sonic with the dead zone though?

Sonic isn't going to be making any day vote comebacks with a Mario game in the poll.
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*lurks*