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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 710

SonicRaptor | Posted 5/10/2009 9:18:41 PM | message detail
What are SFII's chances? For some reason I accidentally put it over Sonic, even though I had sonic last round.

If it's this close, very good.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/10/2009 9:19:39 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #239
FFIV over SMB3 would be the greatest result to ever happen in these contests. Don't have any faith in that happening, though!


I dunno, if FFIV is indirectly stronger than FFI, that puts it somewhere in the (low) 40s against Mario 3. With huge Stand Out Factor and two other platformers (one of which that shouldn't be crushed), I can see it making that up.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/10/2009 9:20:11 PM | message detail
I saw someone bring up a good point earlier. The SFF should hurt Sonic more once the casual votes come in who don't know about the favorites of the match and all
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transience | Posted 5/10/2009 9:20:36 PM | message detail
looks like I was right not to trust Sonic... hmm, let's see where this goes.

Sonic has to be the fave though - much better day vote. morning's gonna kill SF2's chances. this'll be just like SF2/Mario RPG, probably.
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xyzzy
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/10/2009 9:20:43 PM | message detail
Man, I can't wait to see the morning vote on this one.

I'm convinced it will be 30-10 for Sonic.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/10/2009 9:20:44 PM | message detail
Mario under 50%
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/10/2009 9:20:45 PM | message detail
2 vote gain?

This is gonna be fun.
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:D
xp1337 | Posted 5/10/2009 9:20:45 PM | message detail
Sonic 1 putting up some resistance at least. Not much though.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/10/2009 9:20:50 PM | message detail
Yep, it's a battle now. Mario 3 is going to be undervalued.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 9:20:58 PM | message detail
I'd say that FFIV and FFI are probably on equal footing indirectly. There's only so high I'm willing to put FFIV after letting MM3 get 41% on it and we saw MM2 get 45% on Tetris.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/10/2009 9:20:59 PM | message detail
Damn it SMB3 don't fall below 50%.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144
hochiminhX | Posted 5/10/2009 9:21:02 PM | message detail
How is Street Fighter II losing? Do people not remember all the arcade fights we did as children? As a kid growing up in Vietnam I would go barefoot down to the river and play Street Fighter II with my kinsmen.

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Majin Lou | Posted 5/10/2009 9:21:13 PM | message detail
Damn you Snoic.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/10/2009 9:21:38 PM | message detail
10/10 hochi
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
ZFS | Posted 5/10/2009 9:22:03 PM | message detail
I could see it happening, especially if FFIV's natural strength ends up being a fair bit stronger than most are expecting, but I just think Mario 3 would sooner kill the other two enough to pull out a decently close win instead of lose. FFIV should be within striking distance either way, though, and I'd love to see it happen.

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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/10/2009 9:22:36 PM | message detail
Fun fact, Monkey Island is doing (marginally) better relative to SMB3 then last round.
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Aww yeah.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/10/2009 9:22:55 PM | message detail
FF4 won't have a chance.
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creativename | Posted 5/10/2009 9:23:04 PM | message detail
I dunno, if FFIV is indirectly stronger than FFI, that puts it somewhere in the (low) 40s against Mario 3.

So...? What's wrong with FFIV doing better on SMB3 than FF1?

I'm not sure which game is stronger but FF4 being stronger should hardly be surprising.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 9:23:45 PM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | Mario Bros. | N. Gaiden | Zelda | Metroid | Demographic
EBV | 48.74% | 6.94% | 36.22% | 8.11% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 47.04% | 6.56% | 37.05% | 9.34% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 47.12% | 6.50% | 36.80% | 9.58% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 48.37% | 6.10% | 36.15% | 9.38% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 46.66% | 5.87% | 38.42% | 9.05% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 44.69% | 6.21% | 39.64% | 9.46% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 43.71% | 7.17% | 39.77% | 9.35% | (22:00-24:00)

Great board vote for Mario 1 and a strong early morning vote. It dropped off pretty big during the day vote though. Kinda surprising. Zelda does its best work with the pure day vote, as always. Metroid and Ninja Gaiden, who cares?

Yesterday's stats:

Super Mario Bros. – 50.00%
The Legend of Zelda – 45.28%
Metroid – 16.83%
Ninja Gaiden – 11.92%

Lower Half Stats

Super Mario Bros. – 50.00%
The Legend of Zelda – 45.28%
Metroid (Round 1) – 21.11%
Metroid (Round 2) – 16.83%
Contra – 15.55%
Ninja Gaiden (Round 1) – 15.14%
Duck Hunt – 13.07%
Ninja Gaiden (Round 2) – 11.92%
Dragon Warrior III – 9.75%
Galaga – 8.16%
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KingBartz | Posted 5/10/2009 9:24:01 PM | message detail
haha hochi ftw
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transience | Posted 5/10/2009 9:24:18 PM | message detail
this is a bad performance by Mario 3? 50%+ on Sonic and SF2?
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/10/2009 9:24:31 PM | message detail
Time for some statistics with vote totals!

Super Mario Bros.'s vote totals were about 64.9% of what they were in round 1.
Ninja Gaiden's vote totals were about 49.21% of what they were in round 1.
The Legend of Zelda's vote totals were about 60.17% of what they were in round 1.
Metroid's vote totals were about 48.41% of what they were in round 1.

Wow, it seems none of these games has a particularly hardcore fanbase. And lol at Ninja Gaiden and Metroid. Nintendo's big two will clearly dominate this division. At the very least though, this probably confirms that Super Mario Bros. is not in fact a top ten game. Vote totals shouldn't dip much next time, since Tetris isn't that much stronger than Metroid, methinks.

1. Super Mario Bros.
2. The Legend of Zelda
3. Tetris
4. Mega Man 2
5. Pac-Man
6. Donkey Kong
7. Metroid
8. Ninja Gaiden

Here's how vote totals are going so far. Both Mario 1 and Zelda 1 managed a higher vote total than any game in the previous match. If there were any doubts on whether it would be those two advancing out of this division, I hope they've been put to rest. On the other hand, Metroid and Ninja Gaiden both did absolutely horrible with vote totals, with LESS than any game in the previous match. Oddly enough, everything seems to indicate that Metroid is weaker than Pac-Man, despite Metroid doubling that game last contest. Yikes.

Okay, time to roll x-stats for this division!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 9:24:37 PM | message detail
As a kid growing up in Vietnam I would go barefoot down to the river and play Street Fighter II with my kinsmen.

How in the world did you play video games at the river?
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/10/2009 9:24:47 PM | message detail
Right, I'm just using it to point out that I think it has a shot at that upset. I think either FF does, really, and now that I think about it, I fear FFI making it through more.

Fighter and Black Mage sprites scare me against most pictures FFIV would likely get.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
RockMFR 5 | Posted 5/10/2009 9:24:55 PM | message detail
Fun fact, Monkey Island is doing (marginally) better relative to SMB3 then last round.

It's because Bacon remember the "The" in its title this time. True fans care about those sorts of things.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 9:25:21 PM | message detail
this is a bad performance by Mario 3? 50%+ on Sonic and SF2?

I pegged it at 60% but I thought I probably shot too high. Over half of the vote against these two is good enough for me.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/10/2009 9:25:23 PM | message detail
morning's gonna kill SF2's chances.

Sonic will have a weakened morning vote because of Monkey Island there. In fact, the UK is mainly to blame for Sonic doing so well in Europe. UK contributes about 40% of the European votes, which gives Sonic a slightly better performance in Europe compared to the entire world. Just check Sonic's matches and look at the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Finland, and Sweden. Sonic doesn't do all that great in those countries compared to the UK, where it does godly there.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 9:25:52 PM | message detail
16 vote cut!
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/10/2009 9:26:22 PM | message detail

From: transience | #271
this is a bad performance by Mario 3? 50%+ on Sonic and SF2?


Its only doing a tiny bit better then what SMW did on Sonic 2, and SMB3 > SMW, and Sonic 2 > Sonic 1 (at least oen would assume)
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ZFS | Posted 5/10/2009 9:26:37 PM | message detail
FFIV's pic tomorrow should be just as classic as FF1 (here's the one I submitted -- http://img172.imageshack.us/img172/9797/ffivr2d.jpg). The way to really mess up FFIV is to give it artwork, which I don't think Bacon would do.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 9:27:27 PM | message detail
You would assume that, yes, but SFII and MKII put up almost identical numbers on Sonic 1 and Sonic 2 respectively.

I know people were saying they'd take MKII after watching SFIV bomb, but come on, MKII doesn't win that match.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/10/2009 9:27:32 PM | message detail
It seems there's a lot of games bunched together in the mid-30s on FFVII range, a lot more than there are characters in the same region relative to Link. With Series, it's the reverse- there's a huge gap between the top 3 and everything else.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/10/2009 9:27:53 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | #280
FFIV's pic tomorrow should be just as classic as FF1 (here's the one I submitted -- http://img172.imageshack.us/img172/9797/ffivr2d.jpg). The way to really mess up FFIV is to give it artwork, which I don't think Bacon would do.


Theres no artwork for round 2, only in game screenshots.
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hochiminhX | Posted 5/10/2009 9:28:27 PM | message detail
I was thinking SMB3 would get about 55% but 50% is still a fair performance. Sonic is resisting SFF more than I anticipated much to my dismay.

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I will bury you.
creativename | Posted 5/10/2009 9:28:47 PM | message detail
The way to really mess up FFIV is to give it artwork

I don't want to ever see Amano art again - I don't get why we would with user made pics. What user uses Amano art??

(anti-fans who root for the game to lose I guess...? curse you biased pic makers!)
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 9:29:32 PM | message detail
I think all three pics have featured in-game stuff, so I expect tomorrow to be no different.

...I wonder if that'd help FFVI any.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 5/10/2009 9:29:38 PM | message detail
Theres no artwork for round 2, only in game screenshots.

Would a screenshot from the ds remake possibly get accepted?

That might give it some sort of edge. Maybe.
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ZFS | Posted 5/10/2009 9:30:07 PM | message detail
I know, which is why I'm not worried about what FFIV's pic tomorrow will be. Unless it's some obscure part of the game, or doesn't have Cecil or Kain in it, it should be good. FF's pic should be great, too, since it's just as classic. I don't think there's going to be a real big pic advantage for either one.

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/10/2009 9:30:50 PM | message detail
Nice to see SMB3 rising again.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 9:30:53 PM | message detail
They're just going back and forth right now. A good fight for second place is what this contest needs, so I'm for it.
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creativename | Posted 5/10/2009 9:30:54 PM | message detail
A DS shot would weaken the game due to no nostalgia vote.

I'm looking forward to FF1 vs. FF4 though. Could be real interesting.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 9:32:05 PM | message detail
Yeah, seeing how FFI/FFIV split will be intriguing. Common sense tells me that there's no way a majority of FF fans prefer the first, but common sense would've told me there's no way FFI gets 40% on Mario 3 either, so...
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ZFS | Posted 5/10/2009 9:32:30 PM | message detail
A DS shot would weaken the game due to no nostalgia vote.

Agreed.

I think there are some nice in-game shots you could use of FFIV DS, but it's not going to be be as good as classic sprites. Sprites are the best thing any old school FF can hope for.

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hochiminhX | Posted 5/10/2009 9:32:30 PM | message detail
I'm also now at #31 on the leaderboard. I moved up 27 spots. I will now accept congratulations at this time.
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I will bury you.
deadeyedllv | Posted 5/10/2009 9:32:59 PM | message detail
Anybody have any good arguments for how SFII could actually keep up?

-Board vote: even (I might even give SFII the edge)
-Euorpe: Sonic
-Day Vote: Sonic
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/10/2009 9:33:23 PM | message detail
Congratulations.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144
dragoontheguy | Posted 5/10/2009 9:33:26 PM | message detail
FFIV's pic for round 3 confirmed!;

http://www.ffshrine.org/ff4/amanoart/ff4_13.jpg
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"A casual stroll through the lunatic asylum shows that faith does not prove anything." - Friedrich Nietzsche
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/10/2009 9:33:27 PM | message detail
From: hochiminhX
I'm also now at #31 on the leaderboard. I moved up 27 spots. I will now accept congratulations at this time.

*17
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Hochi is a predictor, not a mathematician.
RPGuy96 | Posted 5/10/2009 9:33:44 PM | message detail
There's actually some interesting parallels between this match and the round 3 match. Street Fighter II and Final Fantasy 1 got almost identical percentages on Sonic 1 and Mario World, respectively. Both of the latter games are going to need to resist SFF from Mario 3 to advance; currently it looks like Sonic 1 will do so, though it'll give up the lead overnight.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 5/10/2009 9:33:44 PM | message detail
*17 spots

No chance I'll congratulate you, hochi, since you're still one spot behind me!
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