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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 710

charmander6000 | Posted 5/10/2009 7:55:09 PM | message detail
Match XXXV: Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Street Fighter II vs. Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. The Secret of Monkey Island

Last Round:

Sonic the Hedgehog – 44.41%
Street Fighter II – 35.58%
Civilization – 10.45%
Castlevania III – 9.56%

Super Mario Bros. 3 – 75.85%
The Secret of Monkey Island – 9.73%
SimCity – 8.86%
Tecmo Super Bowl – 5.56%

Analysis

In this match we have the juggernaut, two flops and a happy to be here game. Seriously how does a game that got out done by several fourth place entrants succeed in proceeding to the second round? Also while Sonic 1 did well last round will it hold up in the face of Mario or will it flop worse than Street Fighter II? All these questions will be answered in the next few paragraphs.

First obviously goes to Super Mario Bros. 3. Having been given the weakest four-pack in the contest last round and setting a new percent record was more expected than impressive. Well for the second time this four-pack seems to be weak and Super Mario Bros. 3 could potentially be the only game this round to break 50%. With no competition in this quarter bracket and even with LFF in rounds 3 and 4 Super Mario Bros. 3 could break the highest percent of each round until the semi-finals.

The Secret of Monkey Island shall take fourth. Not only did it fail to break 10% with SimCity and Tecmo in the same poll, it would take a major flopping before Sonic 1 or Street Fighter II would lose to Monkey Island. What I am interested to see is if those so called hardcore fans can prevent it from looking even worse. I could see Monkey Island breaking 8% though on the other end it could fail 5%.

Sonic 1 took the board by surprise by easily defeating Street Fighter II last round though as the contest went on Sonic began to look worse while Street Fighter was simply terrible. Like Mega Man Sonic seems to be more associated with Nintendo than other companies. With Super Mario Bros. 3 in the poll Sonic 1 is in a position to be SFF and the buffer it created may not be enough to prevent it from falling to third.

Street Fighter has flopped twice already, but here it has a chance to redeem itself. Sonic 1 is going to suffer SFF in this match giving Street Fighter II a chance to advance. However knowing the era I wouldn’t be surprised if Street Fighter II is also slightly SFF in this match. It won’t be as bad as Sonic 1’s but it could be enough to let Sonic 1 sneak through thus making Street Fighter the most flopped series of the contest.

Another easy victory for Super Mario Bros. 3 though the fight of who flops the least should be interesting. Sonic seems to collapse in the face of other Nintendo entrants so while Street Fighter II may be affected it probably won’t be as bad as Sonic thus giving it the win. Also I would love it if Monkey Island set a new low percent record.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Super Mario Bros. 3 > Street Fighter II

charmander6000’s Prediction: 54.36%, Street Fighter II – 21.53%, Sonic the Hedgehog – 18.53%, The Secret of Monkey Island – 5.58%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: LoZ > SMB Points: 97/136
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 7:55:52 PM | message detail
For some reason, I've just got this feeling Sonic's getting second here. Just can't shake it, for whatever the reason.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/10/2009 7:57:02 PM | message detail
I know Sonic is getting second, which will kick me off the leaderboard.

That sucks. Damn you Street Fighter!
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/10/2009 7:57:16 PM | message detail
We've seen Sonic stand up to Mario before- it could happen again. If people see this match as Mario vs. Sonic, Nintendo vs. Sega, SNES (I know SMB3 is a NES game) vs. Genesis......
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ZFS | Posted 5/10/2009 7:58:10 PM | message detail
It wouldn't surprise me. Not because of Sonic's strength, or holding up, but just Street Fighter sucking.

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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/10/2009 8:00:18 PM | message detail
Sonic 1 doesn't even have to stand up very well - it got 55.5% on SFII last round after all.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 8:01:16 PM | message detail
I think Mario 3 can SFF 5% off of Sonic 1 easily.
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deadeyedllv | Posted 5/10/2009 8:17:30 PM | message detail
Add me to the list of people who doesn't think SFII has a chance. SMB3 may leech some votes from Sonic, but I think just as many will be lost from SFII. Had SFIV done anything I might think differently, but SFII has no chance of getting second. I'd be surprised if it were any closer to Sonic this match than it was last round.
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transience | Posted 5/10/2009 8:18:50 PM | message detail
it comes down to who can get 20-ish percent. I dunno who to trust more there.

probably Sonic though.
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xyzzy
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter
ChronicBoom | Posted 5/10/2009 8:20:04 PM | message detail
whoa just realized zelda was the favorite for today. doing pretty well for itself.

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He who shall not be named.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/10/2009 8:22:13 PM | message detail
Don't let Street Fighter IV fool you guys. SFII would obliterate it, and Sonic is getting absolutely trashed here. He's not putting up 20% in this poll - such a performance would avoid a tripling unless Mario goes for 60%. It ain't happening. This one won't be close. At all.

Hochi told me.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/10/2009 8:24:43 PM | message detail
Well, if Hochi, the greatest predictor in contest history, the man who can take Zelda games to be fodder and Link to lose every year and still outperform 99.9% of brackets, says so.....
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/10/2009 8:29:14 PM | message detail
Add me to the list of people who doesn't have a clue. SMB3 may leech some votes from Sonic, but possibly just as many will be lost from SFII. Had SFIV or the other 2 Sonic games done anything I might think differently, but both have a chance of getting second. I'd be surprised if it isn't closer this match than it was last round.
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Aww yeah, stealing others words.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/10/2009 8:30:37 PM | message detail
We all saw a weaker Mario game put up 71% on a Sonic game of (probable) equal strength. This is Mario 3, and this is a format where SFF can be much more severe. Heck, SMB is scoring 83% on Metroid right now when SMB3 couldn't hit 79% four years ago. On top of that, Sonic looks to have, if anything, dropped since then. Forget 20% in the match; Sonic might not get 20% on Mario 3 alone.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 5/10/2009 8:31:39 PM | message detail
yeah, SF2 is not that independent. I think it can win but it won't get out of this unscathed unless Sonic just DIES, which is possible.
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xyzzy
"Actually, fire didn't make Sephiroth awesome. Sephiroth made fire awesome." -Karma Hunter
therealmnm | Posted 5/10/2009 8:35:28 PM | message detail
I'm more worried about SFII folding to Mario as well than Sonic being able to stand up. I know its 2004 results and all, but SMW beat the **** out of Sonic 2. If that holds up at all, there's no way Sonic 1 gets 20% in this match against SMB3. That being said, I'm still holding on to Ryu always performing well in losses that SFII has a dedicated enough fanbase to get it through! If it doesn't, then I'm laying the dedicated fanbase argument for SF to rest permanently!
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Master Moltar | Posted 5/10/2009 8:35:42 PM | message detail
SF2 isn't going to look good here, but Sonic is going to get crushed.

At least that's how I see it at the moment.
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 34 - Bracket: Zelda > SMB - Vote: Zelda (95/136)
red sox 777 | Posted 5/10/2009 8:37:50 PM | message detail
It's too bad Sonic and Street Fighter are both strong in Europe- if it were, say, MM2 here in Sonic's place we might have gotten to see Monkey Island win an hour over it overnight. Maybe.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/10/2009 8:38:47 PM | message detail
Both Sonic 1 and SFII get SFF'd to the ground and Monkey Island takes second, book it!

(the real dedicated fanbase)
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Mustache...and Green...
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/10/2009 8:39:47 PM | message detail
From: RPGuy96
Both Sonic 1 and SFII get SFF'd to the ground and Monkey Island takes second, book it!

(the real dedicated fanbase)


I'm cool with this.
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:D
Master Moltar | Posted 5/10/2009 8:41:19 PM | message detail
cutthroat bill coming for ryu and a hedgehog
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 35 - Bracket: SMB3 > SF2 - Vote: Sonic (99/144)
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/10/2009 8:45:45 PM | message detail
I'm waiting for a situation to come up in a 4way where both games that advanced in 2nd place from the previous round get through.
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That'd be fun to watch.
ZFS | Posted 5/10/2009 8:45:57 PM | message detail
all aboard the monkey island train

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a metal slime appears
SonicRaptor | Posted 5/10/2009 8:47:56 PM | message detail
SF2 isn't going to look good here, but Sonic is going to get crushed.

I agree.

SF has tanked pretty bad in this contest, but Sonic always gets massively SFF'd by Mario so that SF2 can slip by. At first I was worried about my Mario 3 > SF2 pick because I made it assuming Sonic 1 was weak and SF2 got a boost with SF4/HD Remix (yeah, yeah). Then I realized it actually works out assuming Sonic 1 gets SFF'd which is another reason to make it.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
LordTMax | Posted 5/10/2009 8:51:25 PM | message detail
Dude, LoZ wasn`t strong enough to beat mario 1 because it was being SFF`d by metroid..
No lies. ;)
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/10/2009 9:00:14 PM | message detail
Sonic the Hedgehog 14.29%

1
Street Fighter II 14.29%

1
Super Mario Bros. 3 71.43%

5
The Secret of Monkey Island 0%

0
TOTAL VOTES 7
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Master Moltar | Posted 5/10/2009 9:00:21 PM | message detail
Sonic the Hedgehog 16.67%

1
Street Fighter II 0%

0
Super Mario Bros. 3 83.33%

5
The Secret of Monkey Island 0%

0
TOTAL VOTES 6

first non SMB3 vote >_>
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 35 - Bracket: SMB3 > SF2 - Vote: Sonic (99/144)
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/10/2009 9:00:35 PM | message detail
Sonic fights well
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Today's prediction: Kuribo's Shoe 54.02% - SFII, SON 20.28% - Sonic 19.62% - Monkey Island 6.08%
Status:
transience | Posted 5/10/2009 9:00:39 PM | message detail
oh yeah, Mario's goin' big
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xyzzy
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/10/2009 9:00:41 PM | message detail
...one guy submitted all four images?
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/10/2009 9:01:10 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #180
...one guy submitted all four images?


Most of the pics board 8 submits don't follow the rules so this mk8 guy is getting all the pics
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg
SonicRaptor | Posted 5/10/2009 9:01:16 PM | message detail
...one guy submitted all four images?

Happened previous match, I guess nobody is sending SBAllen images.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
charmander6000 | Posted 5/10/2009 9:01:18 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3479&region=ASI

lol Metroid came in last.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144
GrapefruitKing | Posted 5/10/2009 9:01:21 PM | message detail
hey, I think Sonic has this
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Today's prediction: Kuribo's Shoe 54.02% - SFII, SON 20.28% - Sonic 19.62% - Monkey Island 6.08%
Status:
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 9:01:25 PM | message detail
Yep, Street Fighter's doomed.
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Gaddswell | Posted 5/10/2009 9:01:27 PM | message detail
Sonic the Hedgehog 19.2% 48
Street Fighter II 21.2% 53
Super Mario Bros. 3 51.2% 128
The Secret of Monkey Island 8.4% 21
TOTAL VOTES 250

From: PartOfYourWorld | #180
...one guy submitted all four images?


Yup. That's twice for this guy in a row.
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transience | Posted 5/10/2009 9:01:35 PM | message detail
bracket vote down, time for Sonic to dominate
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xyzzy
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/10/2009 9:01:56 PM | message detail
Oh lord.

Prepare for another topic.
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/8zkzm1.gif
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
charmander6000 | Posted 5/10/2009 9:01:57 PM | message detail
lol SFII, don't lose now.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/10/2009 9:02:04 PM | message detail
god damn you suck sf2
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http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg
MegatokyoEd | Posted 5/10/2009 9:02:37 PM | message detail
Sonic's already winning! SF2 is failllllllll
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Demyx is better than Axel.
RockMFR 5 | Posted 5/10/2009 9:02:42 PM | message detail
*tears up bracket again*
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Master Moltar | Posted 5/10/2009 9:02:54 PM | message detail
this better be board vote because i expected MOAR SFF
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Moltar Status: complete global saturation
Match 35 - Bracket: SMB3 > SF2 - Vote: Sonic (99/144)
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/10/2009 9:03:33 PM | message detail
...Sonic 1 is doing better on Mario 3 than Sonic 2 did on Mario World.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/10/2009 9:03:33 PM | message detail
Personally I thought SMB3 would be doing better here.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144
xp1337 | Posted 5/10/2009 9:03:41 PM | message detail
Yeah, hey SMB3, you're on the wrong side of 50% right now. You're on the wrong side of 55% even!

I'd say wrong side of 60%, but I think that was just overkill!
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SC2k6 (190/240) 99.4958 Percentile
ZFS | Posted 5/10/2009 9:03:47 PM | message detail
lol Street Fighter

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a metal slime appears
red sox 777 | Posted 5/10/2009 9:04:03 PM | message detail
Sonic winning? Well, it's not over yet, but it looks like Street Figher sucks so badly not even Sonic can pull off losing against it, not even in 2 tries.
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transience | Posted 5/10/2009 9:04:03 PM | message detail
I knew I shoulda gone with Sonic, oh well

Sonic should roll SF2 up from here, but I dunno, I don't trust Sonic to keep going.
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yzzyx
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 5/10/2009 9:04:07 PM | message detail
This one looks to be over. Sonic rose a good bit against SFII last round from the first 5 minutes. Don't see any reason for that to change. SFII needed to at least have the lead here.
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FastFalcon and Solid Snake snapped my neck in the guru contest.