GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 710
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/11/2009 5:36:25 AM | message detail |
I still think Final Fantasy IV will beat Final Fantasy I without a contest. And as for me focusing on vote totals so much, many things point to them being a good helper for contest analysis. Unless otherwise convinced, I will not refrain from this. |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 5:40:10 AM | message detail |
thats a bad sign for sonic if smb3 is waking up, since most of that should be at his expense --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg |
charmander6000 | Posted 5/11/2009 5:41:04 AM | message detail |
I think MI will take a hard hit once the ASV starts and Europe goes to bed. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144 |
dragoontheguy | Posted 5/11/2009 5:55:21 AM | message detail |
The moment of truth (aka, FF1 > FF4) is getting close. Not if this sites userbase has even the slightest amount of taste it isn't. >_> --- "A casual stroll through the lunatic asylum shows that faith does not prove anything." - Friedrich Nietzsche http://www.last.fm/user/dragoontheguy |
red sox 777 | Posted 5/11/2009 5:57:37 AM | message detail |
Huh, Street Fighter 2 isn't completely dying relative to Sonic here. Surprising, but it probably doesn't matter. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
dragoontheguy | Posted 5/11/2009 5:57:48 AM | message detail |
thats a bad sign for sonic if smb3 is waking up, since most of that should be at his expense I don't get it, why would mario be sffing sonic any worse at certain times than others? --- "A casual stroll through the lunatic asylum shows that faith does not prove anything." - Friedrich Nietzsche http://www.last.fm/user/dragoontheguy |
red sox 777 | Posted 5/11/2009 6:02:26 AM | message detail |
And
as for me focusing on vote totals so much, many things point to them
being a good helper for contest analysis. Unless otherwise convinced, I
will not refrain from this. I don't know if this is the first contest you've followed closely, but you should be able to find ample evidence that vote totals are a very very crude indicator of strength from the past 7 years of match data. Everyone here has seen the votals argument fall flat on its face enough times that you're not going to convince anyone of anything through these arguments. It is better than random guessing, but it is far inferior to the general body of knowledge that we've built up over the past 7 years. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 6:02:53 AM | message detail |
From: dragoontheguy | #456 Because they draw from the same fanbase. If mario starts getting big gains, that should be at the expense of sonic --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg |
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/11/2009 6:03:43 AM | message detail |
Sonic wins. Good job Street Fighter, you suck even worse than an SFF'd Sonic game. --- Kleenex...at work! |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 6:04:16 AM | message detail |
From: The Mana Sword | #459 It isn't over yet. --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg |
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/11/2009 6:05:25 AM | message detail |
No, it's definitely over. --- Kleenex...at work! |
red sox 777 | Posted 5/11/2009 6:05:31 AM | message detail |
Because they draw from the same fanbase. If mario starts getting big gains, that should be at the expense of sonic No. They were already drawing from the same fanbase before. If there's a shift in the Mario/Sonic percentages now, it's much more likely due to the parts of their fanbases that are independent of each other. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 6:06:22 AM | message detail |
From: red sox 777 | #462 Then explain why Sonic has only gained 4 votes in the last half an hour over SF2, when mario starts showing life? --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg |
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/11/2009 6:07:28 AM | message detail |
:O At one point MI was at 16.15% on SMB3! --- At that point, it would have got 58.68% on it's R1 self. |
red sox 777 | Posted 5/11/2009 6:09:31 AM | message detail |
Why
has Mario gained percentage while Sonic has lost percentage? Because
Mario is good at the morning vote, of course. (Hint: if Mario is doing
better now, that means the percentage of incoming voters who are Mario
fans who are not Sonic fans has increased relative to a few hours ago.)
That's far more plausible than saying the percentage of fans of both
Mario and Sonic who vote for Mario has increased- why would that be? --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
MnMZero | Posted 5/11/2009 6:10:03 AM | message detail |
^ I never got this either. Never got how a game can cause another games trends to change relative to other games. Sonic's percentage might be affected, but his trends should still remain the same relative to the concentration of fans in each region. --- Proud Supporter of Zero |
charmander6000 | Posted 5/11/2009 6:10:13 AM | message detail |
It's
possible that SFF occurs differently in different areas for example
Mario isn't that popular in Europe so don't expect it to SFF Sonic
while in North America Mario is more popular along with Sonic causing
some fanbase overlap. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144 |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 6:11:54 AM | message detail |
I'm
honestly leaning towards SF2 as the favorite here. The morning vote
should be its worst time, and it should be Sonics best time, and if
Sonic isn't able to do anything with it, then I'm liking SF2s chances
of coming back during the day (not to mention might even win the ASV if
this morning vote is any indication) --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg |
red sox 777 | Posted 5/11/2009 6:13:09 AM | message detail |
I
can see this happening in cases where the early voters who know what's
up rally to the character who needs support while the casuals just vote
for their favorite (i.e. Cloud/Sephiroth/Snake), but in general any
difference in SFF between times should be minimal. There's a reason why
SFF matches tend to have very flat trends- because it's the same fanbase, and a fanbase as the same trends as itself! --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 6:14:12 AM | message detail |
I think Charmander has the right idea here. --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg |
charmander6000 | Posted 5/11/2009 6:17:38 AM | message detail |
I
can see this happening in cases where the early voters who know what's
up rally to the character who needs support while the casuals just vote
for their favorite (i.e. Cloud/Sephiroth/Snake), but in general any
difference in SFF between times should be minimal. There's a reason why
SFF matches tend to have very flat trends- because it's the same
fanbase, and a fanbase as the same trends as itself! While true the reason is because they have similar trends. In the case with Sonic he's popular in Europe while Nintendo really isn't. If Asia had a stronger presence on this site you would see the same trend with Link and other Nintendo. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144 |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 6:19:03 AM | message detail |
well... nevermind. Sonic is going crazy now --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg |
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/11/2009 6:20:04 AM | message detail |
lol albion --- Kleenex...at work! |
red sox 777 | Posted 5/11/2009 6:23:19 AM | message detail |
In the case with Sonic he's popular in Europe while Nintendo really isn't. This indicates that Mario and Sonic do have separate fanbases; they are not completely aligned together. --- Link he come to town to win the Gamefaqs Contests. |
charmander6000 | Posted 5/11/2009 6:28:35 AM | message detail |
This indicates that Mario and Sonic do have separate fanbases; they are not completely aligned together. Well ya, I don't think anyone here would put them as having complete overlap. Kind of like Nintendo and Mega Man. Also with this performance would anyone take Sonic 1 > Sonic 2? --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144 |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 6:29:12 AM | message detail |
From: charmander6000 | #475 Well, Sonic 2 did worse against a weaker Mario game... so yeah. --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg |
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/11/2009 6:31:55 AM | message detail |
From: MyWorldIsCrono Well, Sonic 2 did worse against a weaker Mario game... so yeah. I'm gonna love it if SMB beats SMB3. I don't expect it to happen, but I don't think I'd be shocked if it happened. --- I could see it just being messed up like that. |
charmander6000 | Posted 5/11/2009 6:32:44 AM | message detail |
Yeah, the possibility came to my mind when Sonic 2 did as well on MKII as Sonic 1 did with SFII. --- Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls BGE2 - Today's Match: SMB3 > SFII Points: 101/144 |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 6:33:19 AM | message detail |
right now, smb1 > smb3 seems pretty likely, at least indirectly. --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 6:34:39 AM | message detail |
aww yea you gotta love those big mario updates where SF2 then cuts 10 --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg |
Wii_TuRtLe | Posted 5/11/2009 6:35:55 AM | message detail |
Because they draw from the same fanbase. If mario starts getting big gains, that should be at the expense of sonic Except both are going up relative to Street Fighter making that a completely moronic observation. |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 6:36:56 AM | message detail |
From: Wii_TuRtLe | #481 Nearly every huge mario update is at the expense of Sonic. --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg |
MnMZero | Posted 5/11/2009 6:38:44 AM | message detail |
I'd
still take Sonic 2 > Sonic 1. 2003-2004 was Sonic's worse contest
span on this site. I wouldn't take that result at face value if it were
to happen again today. --- Proud Supporter of Zero |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 6:39:48 AM | message detail |
just those last 2 updates mario went wild and sonic died should be evidence enough for my point --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 6:59:58 AM | message detail |
Anyway, seems day vote is starting. 3 straight cuts for SF2 --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/11/2009 7:11:41 AM | message detail |
Whoa, now there's a serious cut. Not quite over yet, especially since Sonic's best time (And SF's worst) has past. --- Yoblazer: http://i37.tinypic.com/x1d2s9.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
SmurfFAQs | Posted 5/11/2009 7:13:27 AM | message detail |
bleh, SF rallying during the dead school hours is to be expected. It'll get blown away come 3. --- Smurf 60% of the time he's awesome every time. |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/11/2009 7:15:35 AM | message detail |
Sonic's falling apart. Yikes. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/11/2009 7:19:47 AM | message detail |
If
Sonic makes it, the probable 30% or so it'll end up with on Mario 3 is
still a lot better than many of us were thinking. red sox already
mentioned this good performance perhaps being a product of Mario vs.
Sonic weirdness. If that's the case, maybe Sonic will actually good
sandwiched between two Mario games? There would definitely be a heck of
a better case for weirdness there than now. --- Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 7:22:26 AM | message detail |
pretty
big gain by sonic there, and no surprise, at the expense of marios
percentage. But really, I see Sonic just dying the rest of this match
to Mario gaining a couple percentage. I'm liking SF2 here --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 7:22:43 AM | message detail |
The moment of truth (aka, FF1 > FF4) is getting close. I can't see ANY reason to think the FF fanbase sides with FFI over FFIV. FFIV is generally agreed to be the better game. And I think being the series progenitor means something as long as you're not, you know, facing another game from the same series (Well, unless that game is generally poorly received, wouldn't expect Mario 2 to beat Mario 1, for example). 2003-2004 was Sonic's worse contest span on this site. Pretty sure most people would say 2007-Present has been worse. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 7:24:02 AM | message detail |
And
I think people are selling Mario 3's performance short here just
because it didn't SFF Sonic to the ground like we thought it would.
We've barely seen anything resembling that in this contest so far, so
don't be disappointed because Mario 3 decides it doesn't want to do it! --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 7:25:28 AM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #492 It will during the day, and has already started. At night and europe vote, I'm sure there were more older people that might of been more independant of the SFF due to maybe growing up in the Genesis era, and Europe loves sonic and apathetic about Mario. Its gonna get worse. --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 7:29:44 AM | message detail |
Hmmm...Mario 3's already started to skyrocket in percentage. It will probably keep doing that for the rest of the match. Oh, and for what it was worth (since it was a weekend match), SFII's second best timeframe against Sonic in the last match was the afternoon. Sonic was the game that stunk it up with the day vote, not SFII. I know trends are a little different on weekends, but the fact that SFII was better with the day vote than Sonic should hold up regardless of the day of the week. SFII did the worst during the morning hours, and that was when Sonic did its best. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 7:30:53 AM | message detail |
Yeah,
thats the reason I'm not ready to call this over or anything yet. SF2
was able to get through its worst time and Sonics best time still in
striking range, and Sonic has a very lackluster ASV in general. --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg |
MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/11/2009 7:30:55 AM | message detail |
right now, smb1 > smb3 seems pretty likely, at least indirectly. based on.. ? --- *is Dranze* BGE2 - Today: SMB > LoZ - Points: 100 Vote: SMB |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 7:32:29 AM | message detail |
From: MarioSuperstar | #496 Based on SMB1 has looked better. --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg |
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/11/2009 7:34:09 AM | message detail |
Mario 1 faced three NES games. --- http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif |
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/11/2009 7:34:39 AM | message detail |
From: LeonhartFour | #498 I'd take Zelda/Metroid/Ninja Gaiden over this pack, easily. --- http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg http://img2.gelbooru.com/images/34/14a0c4231b6fe6e9657190b033e368594f4a462c.jpg |
The Mana Sword | Posted 5/11/2009 7:34:43 AM | message detail |
Don't be silly Leon, Mario 1 is clearly stronger. --- Kleenex...at work! |
