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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 709

LeonhartFour | Posted 5/9/2009 6:20:30 PM | message detail
I don't think OoT being in the poll matters nearly as much as people are saying it will.

Of course you don't!

Oh, and there's no doubt in my mind Mario 1 is fully capable of replicating LoZ's performance in the 2004 Games Contest, but it had a cakewalk to get to Mario 3, so that wouldn't be much of an accomplishment to me.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/9/2009 6:21:41 PM | message detail
SMB 3 weaker than RBY?

No. Way. I'd bet on it being a SFF beating in SMB3's favor before THINKING about a RBY upset.
Meeks54 | Posted 5/9/2009 6:22:12 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #101
I don't think OoT being in the poll matters nearly as much as people are saying it will.

Of course you don't!

Oh, and there's no doubt in my mind Mario 1 is fully capable of replicating LoZ's performance in the 2004 Games Contest, but it had a cakewalk to get to Mario 3, so that wouldn't be much of an accomplishment to me.




So you think SMB puts 43% on SMB 3? Now who is out of their damned mind?


Fiction, no way SMB could have done what LoZ did. The biggest win of all time? Seriously, we think SMB could have beat Adventure down THAT badly? Like less than 5%? Come on.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/9/2009 6:22:13 PM | message detail
Of course you don't!

Hey, I'm not saying FF8 loses, but get this 'RBY gets SFFd to hell' stuff outta here.

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/9/2009 6:25:22 PM | message detail
SMB could indeed put up 95% on Adventure like LoZ did, but no way does it get 43% on SMB3. I'd sooner take it to get below 25% in that matchup.
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/9/2009 6:25:47 PM | message detail
That's obnoxious thinking, too. As somebody thinking RBY is likely in the Top Ten, SMB and LoZ would be very hot on its heels in a match and would likely win one-on-one (I do think this format helps Pokemon a bit). To condemn creative for taking that pick is really trying to harass him about about something none of us know for sure (yes, including you). For how you're ragging on him, the topic could collectively diss your RBY > SMB3 prediction.

Stones, house, glass, something like that.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/9/2009 6:26:44 PM | message detail
SMB could indeed put up 95% on Adventure like LoZ did, but no way does it get 43% on SMB3. I'd sooner take it to get below 25% in that matchup.

He meant indirectly. As in no SFF.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/9/2009 6:26:53 PM | message detail
I like these topics better when we're not talking about RBY or Zelda.

Less MWC the better. Seriously, he's approaching Albion levels right now.
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/9/2009 6:28:07 PM | message detail
So you think SMB puts 43% on SMB 3? Now who is out of their damned mind?

Sounds like somebody needs to reread what the Fact/Fiction I presented was asking.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
ZFS | Posted 5/9/2009 6:28:22 PM | message detail
MWC cleared Albion levels long ago.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/9/2009 6:28:59 PM | message detail
But at least he has the decency not to post when we're not talking about Zelda or RBY.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/9/2009 6:29:14 PM | message detail
Waitwaitwait, Meeks is MWC?


It all makes sense now.

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Meeks54 | Posted 5/9/2009 6:29:50 PM | message detail

From: HaRRicH | #106
That's obnoxious thinking, too. As somebody thinking RBY is likely in the Top Ten, SMB and LoZ would be very hot on its heels in a match and would likely win one-on-one (I do think this format helps Pokemon a bit). To condemn creative for taking that pick is really trying to harass him about about something none of us know for sure (yes, including you). For how you're ragging on him, the topic could collectively diss your RBY > SMB3 prediction.

Stones, house, glass, something like that.




You act like this topic has not collectively dissed many of my predictions the last 3 years.....many of which came true by the way, I don't care if they do it again.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/9/2009 6:30:23 PM | message detail
Newbie question, but who's MWC? I THINK I know who you guys are talking about, but I need some confirmation.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/9/2009 6:30:30 PM | message detail
Everyone gets their predictions dissed, dude. Don't be puttin' yo'self on a pedestal, cracka.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/9/2009 6:31:07 PM | message detail

From: KanzarisKelshen | #114
Newbie question, but who's MWC? I THINK I know who you guys are talking about, but I need some confirmation.


Meeks
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Meeks54 | Posted 5/9/2009 6:32:24 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #108
I like these topics better when we're not talking about RBY or Zelda.

Less MWC the better. Seriously, he's approaching Albion levels right now.




I post in these all the time man. I just did not post much during the last few regions for a few reasons.



1. The games legitimately suck. After RE 4 and the couple 5 star Nintendo games, really, what was in those last 2 regions? Halo, GTA, 10,000 FPS's.
2 Been working alot and haning out with friends the last 2 weeks more, that and the end of Scrubs.

Now we are back to the worthwhile games again.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/9/2009 6:33:33 PM | message detail
The less you know about MWC, the better.


You act like this topic has not collectively dissed many of my predictions the last 3 years.....many of which came true by the way, I don't care if they do it again.

The Stats Topic will accept any crazy opinion if you present it with grace. Why do you think Lopen is loved here and I'm more or less tolerated?

Browbeating people, telling them they're stupid, and generally posting with BT-level arrogance is what gets people not to like you. Not your picks.

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Meeks54 | Posted 5/9/2009 6:33:45 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #115
Everyone gets their predictions dissed, dude. Don't be puttin' yo'self on a pedestal, cracka.




Where did I do that? I was just saying it happens all the time and I don't care. I realize everyone gets their predictions dissed. (Does Red Sox ever though? I can't remember a time where everyone ganged up on his prediction)
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
HaRRicH | Posted 5/9/2009 6:34:41 PM | message detail
You act like this topic has not collectively dissed many of my predictions the last 3 years.....many of which came true by the way, I don't care if they do it again.

Creative's been predicting longer than three years AND has had more come true.


dont worry guys i wont respond to him anymore
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
red sox 777 | Posted 5/9/2009 6:41:12 PM | message detail
Does Red Sox ever though? I can't remember a time where everyone ganged up on his prediction

Every time I hype Chrono Trigger to very high levels based on fanboy logic (I can't even tell if I'm using fanboy logic or sound logic with that game anymore!).

Seriously though, the 2 games I hyped the most in the months prior to this contest were Pokemon RBY and The Legend of Zelda.....dunno if those count as my picks getting dissed.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/9/2009 6:43:40 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/9/2009 6:52:53 PM | message detail
Wait...ALBION is MWC AND Meeks? ...naaaah. That couldn't be true. Right? Right?
Meeks54 | Posted 5/9/2009 6:53:42 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #121
Does Red Sox ever though? I can't remember a time where everyone ganged up on his prediction

Every time I hype Chrono Trigger to very high levels based on fanboy logic (I can't even tell if I'm using fanboy logic or sound logic with that game anymore!).

Seriously though, the 2 games I hyped the most in the months prior to this contest were Pokemon RBY and The Legend of Zelda.....dunno if those count as my picks getting dissed.




FTR I think your logic is sound on CT, as I use many of the same things myself. Of course it could just as easily be argued that I am using the same fanboy logic that you are using since it is my second favorite game ever and I want it to win over all others, so it is not like I am unbiased either.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
Meeks54 | Posted 5/9/2009 6:54:52 PM | message detail

From: KanzarisKelshen | #123
Wait...ALBION is MWC AND Meeks? ...naaaah. That couldn't be true. Right? Right?




No. He does like Chrono Trigger about as much as I do, we do disagree on WoW though, he loves it enough to rally for the thing, I hate it with all my being.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/9/2009 7:08:03 PM | message detail
Albion - MWiC
Meeks - MWC
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 5/9/2009 7:08:48 PM | message detail
The amount of overlap isn't going to make RBY destroy GS any less. It just makes GS less independent, which is what you don't want if you want to argue MM advancing.

That's the complete opposite of what I would think. The less independent GS is (and more overlap it has with RBY) the better MM's chances are. For MM to advance it needs as many GS voters as possible to also be fans of RBY. Every one of those would be a lost vote for RBY. That's the entire basis of LFF. The more similar the fanbases are for two games, the more they hurt each other.

GS having a more independent fanbase may allow it to stand up to RBY better, but those votes aren't helping out MM because they aren't being taken away from RBY. The independent fanbase simply allows the Pokemon games to have a higher combined percentage, it wouldn't hurt RBY in comparison to MM.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/9/2009 7:11:38 PM | message detail
True or False:

Mario/Zelda combined get more votes tomorrow then the Fallout 3 > Halo 3 match altogether.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/9/2009 7:12:53 PM | message detail
From: MyWorldIsCrono
True or False:

Mario/Zelda combined get more votes tomorrow then the Fallout 3 > Halo 3 match altogether.


Don't be a ****tard.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/9/2009 7:13:19 PM | message detail
"Mario/Zelda combined get more votes tomorrow then the Fallout 3 > Halo 3 match altogether."

False...but close. Between the fodder and the war victim, they'll probably break 100k by their lonesome.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/9/2009 7:13:23 PM | message detail

From: nintendogirl1 | #129
From: MyWorldIsCrono
True or False:

Mario/Zelda combined get more votes tomorrow then the Fallout 3 > Halo 3 match altogether.


Don't be a ****tard.


?
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/9/2009 7:20:59 PM | message detail
In order for that to happen Albion, Mario and Zelda need to match get 75% of the vote if they equal the highest match total so far which was FF/SMW. That had Square and Nintendo draws as well as Battletoads rallying. Their first round matches averaged just over 116k votes. Let's assume that putting them both in for some reason adds 10k. So of the 126k votes, you want them to get 102k or 80% of the vote.
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It'll be high, but it won't be that high.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/9/2009 7:22:27 PM | message detail
I expect them to get 80% this match.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/9/2009 7:23:47 PM | message detail
Do I see people responding to Albion when they shouldn't be I think I do
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/9/2009 7:24:04 PM | message detail
This being a Zelda/Mario match, we SHOULD expect high votals. Nothing like L-Block or Link/Cloud, obviously, but 120k doesn't sound too far-fetched. And Ninja Gaiden is going to look like PoP here, with Metroid MAYBE taking 10% of the vote. They won't hit as much as Fallout>Halo 3, but combined, they should hit 90-100k, easily.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/9/2009 7:24:55 PM | message detail
honestly, i'm expecting somethign like this:

Mario Bros: 45%
Zelda: 35%
Metroid: 15%
Ninja Gaiden: 5%

Is that really so out there?
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RPGuy96 | Posted 5/9/2009 7:26:35 PM | message detail
I think the two of them can approach or exceed 80%, but I don't think the votals will be that high. Metroid 1 managed 23% on Zelda 1 and Ninja Gaiden got 15% on Mario 1; if Mario 1 = Zelda 1 and those percentages hold up, that gives them a combined 82% of the vote.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/9/2009 7:30:49 PM | message detail
btw looking at the crew, all but 1 person has them hitting 80% combined

I think you are undershotting mario/zelda here, Nintendogirl
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/9/2009 7:31:16 PM | message detail
But don't you think double-SFF will push the games further down? Obviously, it won't reduce Metroid below 10%, for example, but NG should go for 4-8%, and MM should hover around 10-13, which gives a nice margin for SBM+Zelda to hit 100k or so.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/9/2009 7:33:36 PM | message detail
I think Metroid can get under 10%.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/9/2009 7:34:34 PM | message detail
Yep. Its possible Mario/Zelda might even be competing for 85% here.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/9/2009 7:38:32 PM | message detail
From: MyWorldIsCrono
I think you are undershotting mario/zelda here, Nintendogirl

I think it's the votals that lose this for them, not the percentages. In order for them to hit the target, even with 80%, we need 128,175 votes cast, and I don't see that happening since we're looking at under 105k for today. You're right they could easily hit 80%, that's not what I'm debating I'm debating they get enough raw votes. And I say it doesn't happen.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/9/2009 7:39:51 PM | message detail
Zelda and Mario are two of the biggest draws... bigger then Tetris and Mega Man, at least.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/9/2009 7:44:12 PM | message detail
From: MyWorldIsCrono
Zelda and Mario are two of the biggest draws... bigger then Tetris and Mega Man, at least.

No, Nintendo and Square are the biggest draws. Even if Mario and Zelda hit 85% of the match, they STILL need 120,600+ votes cast, a figure we saw cast once before '92-'94 which was again SMW/FF/Battletoads.

There just won't be the votes for it.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/9/2009 7:46:59 PM | message detail
"There just won't be the votes for it."

Why do I get the feeling this will have to be saved for posterity? :p

More seriously, could SMB+Zelda hit 100k votes? That sounds a bit more reasonable, after all.
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/9/2009 7:49:16 PM | message detail
From: KanzarisKelshen
"There just won't be the votes for it."

Why do I get the feeling this will have to be saved for posterity? :p

More seriously, could SMB+Zelda hit 100k votes? That sounds a bit more reasonable, after all.


This is basically what we're debating. The Fallout3/Halo 3 match got 102540 votes. You can haggle for the extra 2540 if you want, but I just don't see it.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/9/2009 7:52:59 PM | message detail
...Ouch. I thought it had gotten ten thousand more votes than that. My bad. Still, I feel like it should be close. 90k is practically guaranteed, and I could see 100k happening. It's down to how badly Metroid gets fodderized, really.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/9/2009 7:57:24 PM | message detail
Who is this Meeks/MWC character. Newbie?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/9/2009 7:58:10 PM | message detail

From: BlAcK TuRtLe | #148
Who is this Meeks/MWC character. Newbie?


He's been here since last contest.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/9/2009 8:01:10 PM | message detail
What does the MWC stand for
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