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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 708

creativename | Posted 5/8/2009 9:27:41 PM | message detail
The pic probably hurt a bit, but everyone who says this isn't really stronger competition is correct. There's obviously a good bit of overlap between DK/Pac-Man/Tetris.
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creativename | Posted 5/8/2009 9:28:21 PM | message detail
And that guy from Twilight.

I don't know who the hell this is, but you're not doing you're argument any favors by mentioning him!
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/8/2009 9:28:55 PM | message detail

From: creativename | Posted: 5/9/2009 12:28:21 AM | #302
And that guy from Twilight.

I don't know who the hell this is, but you're not doing you're argument any favors by mentioning him!


EVEN THE SMART PEOPLE DO THIS, STOP IT
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/8/2009 9:29:13 PM | message detail
If he even makes the bracket, I'd say that the idea would be a success from Bacon's perspective.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/8/2009 9:29:52 PM | message detail
Tetris >>> Pac-Man
Oregon Trail > SFF'd Pac-Man
Pong > DK


Let's try it a different way... SFF Pac-Man is getting ~13% less than it did last round while Tetris needs to replace Oregon Trail. Already Tetris needs to put up 34% for MM2 to equal its previous round, now DK is weaker than Pong which pretty much adds up to the rest of Tetris' percent.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: MM2 > Tetris Points: 93/128
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/8/2009 9:31:10 PM | message detail
I won't say anything except that it's obviously impossible to draw a conclusion on the picture in practically any 4-way match. Way too many interfering factors
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/8/2009 9:31:21 PM | message detail
ugh i hate these early divisions and all their blow outs
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 9:31:33 PM | message detail
Yep, this one's over. Tetris destroyed Mega Man 2 there.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/8/2009 9:33:06 PM | message detail
annnd Mega Man 2 only can go downward from here. It'll probably land around 31/32%, which isn't really impressive.

No real conclusive evidence on the pic mattering still. At least not substantially, anyway.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/8/2009 9:35:16 PM | message detail
If DK is weaker than Pong, it's not by much. (Pong would beat Punch-Out? That seems so wrong.) And Pac-Man and Pong may have LFF'd each other last round; there's as much reason to believe that as Tetris/Pac-Man SFF here. Pac-Man getting 13% lower this round isn't just because of SFF- it's a good sign this pack is simply stronger.

Actually, I expect there is lots of LFF flying around here between all 4 entrants, and the same was probably true last round.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 9:36:49 PM | message detail
You don't need to examine Pac-Man's overall percentage to know there's LFF here. All you need to do is see its percentage relative to Mega Man. 43.93% last round, 28.41% now.
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/8/2009 9:36:57 PM | message detail
Now i don't understand why you guys think its over for megaman 2, you make it sound like hes gonna lose 2nd place to Donkey Kong......
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creativename | Posted 5/8/2009 9:37:17 PM | message detail
And Pac-Man and Pong may have LFF'd each other last round; there's as much reason to believe that as Tetris/Pac-Man SFF here.

Tetris is much stronger than Pong so the gross effect is greater.

Pac-Man getting 13% lower this round isn't just because of SFF- it's a good sign this pack is simply stronger.

It's mostly SFF.

Regardless nothing conclusive about the pic impact can be drawn.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/8/2009 9:37:45 PM | message detail
Now i don't understand why you guys think its over for megaman 2, you make it sound like hes gonna lose 2nd place to Donkey Kong......

No, we're saying it's over and that MM2 has no shot at taking 1st from Tetris.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/8/2009 9:38:50 PM | message detail
Hell even Donkey Kong is doing worse relatively to Tetris
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 9:40:01 PM | message detail
DK getting Last Place Factor'd! Aw yeah

Or Pac-Man and DK are probably LFFing each other, too, but who really cares?
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transience | Posted 5/8/2009 9:40:04 PM | message detail
I wonder if Tetris is independent enough to stand up to Mario and Zelda. probably not, but this seems like a pretty impressive two rounds by Tetris.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/8/2009 9:40:37 PM | message detail
So how bout tomorrow

Mario > Zelda m i rite?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 9:41:04 PM | message detail
I wonder if Tetris is independent enough to stand up to Mario and Zelda.

It already got tripled by Zelda once, so if that's its independent strength, it won't matter.
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transience | Posted 5/8/2009 9:41:49 PM | message detail
but as we've seen countless times before, this isn't 2004.

we all know Mario and Zelda overlap with each other more than Tetris.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 9:42:33 PM | message detail
but as we've seen countless times before, this isn't 2004.

I really don't see any reason for that result to change, however. These games were archaic in 2004, too.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/8/2009 9:42:39 PM | message detail
surprise upset tomorrow: all the nintendo titles lff eachother and let the ninja stealth into first
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 9:43:17 PM | message detail
Surprise upset: Ninja Gaiden gets worse percentage than Prince of Persia
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/8/2009 9:43:22 PM | message detail
I wouldn't expect any 2 of these games to overlap that much more than they do with the others. MM2 is trying its best now to fall well below last round's percentage though, so it may be a moot point before we're done.
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creativename | Posted 5/8/2009 9:43:38 PM | message detail
I wonder if Tetris is independent enough to stand up to Mario and Zelda. probably not, but this seems like a pretty impressive two rounds by Tetris.

I at the start of the contest that Tetris and MM2 could both approach single digits in the division final.

It's going to be massively ugly.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/8/2009 9:43:59 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #324
I wouldn't expect any 2 of these games to overlap that much more than they do with the others. MM2 is trying its best now to fall well below last round's percentage though, so it may be a moot point before we're done.


And isn't the power hour mega mans best time? this is gonna get brutal especially in the europe hours
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ZFS | Posted 5/8/2009 9:44:46 PM | message detail
Yeah, Mario and Zelda should mop up these two.

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JawolopingJeff | Posted 5/8/2009 9:44:53 PM | message detail
how does the theoretical match of tetris, MM 2, Zelda 1 and SMB 1 look?
JawolopingJeff | Posted 5/8/2009 9:45:18 PM | message detail
woops too late
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/8/2009 9:45:22 PM | message detail
Comparing the first round matches, Megaman ended up higher than his power hour hour and Tetris fell a little.

Not nearly enough to bring the result into question or anything though
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xp1337 | Posted 5/8/2009 9:46:03 PM | message detail
Exactly how SMB/LoZ/Metroid/Ninja Gaiden turns out?

The order there should carry into the third round. I see no reason why it shouldn't.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 9:57:00 PM | message detail
Yesterday's chart:

Time | Fallout 3 | Halo 3 | Left 4 Dead | Mass Effect | Demographic
EBV | 34.82% | 27.77% | 22.40% | 15.02% | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 36.24% | 26.05% | 22.33% | 15.39% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 38.39% | 25.80% | 21.72% | 16.13% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 39.09% | 25.77% | 19.73% | 15.41% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 38.51% | 25.45% | 19.89% | 16.15% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 36.53% | 30.24% | 19.79% | 13.44% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 36.60% | 29.84% | 20.31% | 13.25% | (22:00-24:00)

Bad board vote for Fallout 3, but a great night vote, morning vote, and DSV. Halo 3 had a good board vote for once, bad night vote, morning vote, and DSV as usual. Nearly a 5% jump to the ASV though. Left 4 Dead's best time was the Power Hour as expected, and a good night vote, too. Mass Effect had cult game trends here.

Yesterday's stats:

Fallout 3 – 50.00%
Halo 3 – 41.77%
Left 4 Dead – 35.21%
Mass Effect – 28.47%
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/8/2009 10:00:47 PM | message detail
i love how 2 million sellers are cult games on gamefaqs
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/8/2009 10:02:15 PM | message detail
how does the theoretical match of tetris, MM 2, Zelda 1 and SMB 1 look?

Either Mario 1 > Zelda 1 or Zelda 1 > Mario 1. Both are equally possible.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/8/2009 10:08:53 PM | message detail
DK getting Last Place Factor'd! Aw yeah

It's doing around what I expected of it. I have my Oracle set at 12.93% on Donkey Kong. DK may be at 11.31% right now, but it should improve a bit with the morning vote (MM2 will suck then) and the ASV to have a shot to finish above 12%.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/8/2009 10:11:04 PM | message detail
the ape is tired of playing around
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xp1337 | Posted 5/8/2009 10:11:24 PM | message detail
DK cut, uh-oh, activate the barriers!
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hochiminhX | Posted 5/8/2009 10:54:29 PM | message detail
Tetris over MM2 is an upset? Seemed obvious to me. I'll take my 8 easy points.


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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 5/8/2009 10:58:26 PM | message detail
10 people fell off the Top 50. setyouupthebomb, Ludwig_Von_2, SoldierTwo, Jayman4545, valas_hune, tablesandchairs, hmfreak31, Burnboy27, masseffect90 and CherryCokes did not have Fallout 3 > Halo 3 as yesterday's winners.

15 people scored half points and lived. Current first place metroidcomposit, former second place Mirrorzzz, Gavin_Sykes, _gloomy, mentalmike_2000, K1lr0y, Aecioo, spence1891, Rodri316, Tendo128, leo3leo, Axem_King, andylt, realseniorleach and GameCuber018 also did not have Fallout 3 > Halo 3 as yesterday's winners.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/8/2009 11:18:50 PM | message detail
Tetris > MM2 was an upset until the first two matches of round 2 were done with.

Anyways, time to predict the next match. This went more or less the way I expected it.

Wow, we've got four games that started their respective franchises, and the three games that started Nintendo's top three franchises. So let's recap previous results.

Super Mario Bros. - After getting unfairly snubbed from the first contest, Mario 1 shows that it wasn't the game that resurrected the entire gaming industry for nothing, breaking 70% in its round 1 match. Granted, that was weak competition, but those are inhumane numbers.

Ninja Gaiden - Uhm, the debut game for Ryu Hayabusa barely breaking 12.5% and still advancing to round 2 seems a bit, uhm, weird. I mean, Ninja Gaiden deserved to make this contest, seeing how it was one of the first games to feature a prominent story and even CUTSCENES, not to mention its infamous difficulty level, but, uhm, yeah. Let's get to the next game, shall we?

The Legend of Zelda - Zelda I kicked ass in the last game contest until coming up to a block wall in Super Mario Bros. 3. This time however, without the cloud of Mario 3 hanging over this division, Zelda I showed that it was poised to take over this division last round.

Metroid - It's famous for being the first sidescroller to allow the player to go back, and Metroid is one of the elites of the NES in these contests. Last time it was also unfairly killed by Mario 3, and this time it ended up with Zelda I in round 2. Even so, name value (and perhaps NES SFF?) allowed Metroid to "upset" Contra last round. What could happen now?

Okay, let's get to the match. This could turn out to be one huge SFF fest with Zelda I coming out on top. On the other hand, maybe Mario was truly Nintendo's #1 franchise until A Link to the Past's release? Name value could prevail, and Zelda I could take a huge blowout. Unfortunately, that prospect isn't looking good so far, as Mario 1 did better last round in terms of percentage and vote totals. I'll still back my bracket in the end, though I won't be very surprised if Super Mario wins. As for third place, Ninja Gaiden could catch STF, but I doubt it. I'll be VERY surprised if Ninja Gaiden even threatens 10%, to be honest.

Prediction: The Legend of Zelda > Super Mario Bros.
Super Mario Bros. - 40%, Ninja Gaiden - 5%, The Legend of Zelda - 45%, Metroid - 10%
Bracket: The Legend of Zelda > Super Mario Bros.
Favorites: Super Mario Bros. > The Legend of Zelda
Younger Brother's Favorites: Super Mario Bros. > Ninja Gaiden
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/8/2009 11:22:17 PM | message detail
It was split 50-50 in the gurus even before the contest started. It was never an upset. And after the contest started it was certainly expected
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 11:28:14 PM | message detail
Looks like Tetris is going to 55/45 MM2 here.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/8/2009 11:39:30 PM | message detail
Tetris is a beast here. 46.27% update for Tetris that time and its highest of the match.
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LinkMarioSamus | Posted 5/9/2009 12:27:01 AM | message detail
As far as tomorrow's match goes, Super Mario Bros. has aged best out of all games in this division and deserves to win.
ffmasterjose | Posted 5/9/2009 12:41:05 AM | message detail
Let's begin the Legend of Zelda > Super Mario Bros. hype now. Gogogo!
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NP: Tetris > Mega Man 2 | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/9/2009 12:59:23 AM | message detail
haha tetris more then doubled mm2 that last update

here comes the europe vote
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MadGamer_11 | Posted 5/9/2009 1:21:24 AM | message detail
I have LoZ>>SMB and am super confident in it.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/9/2009 2:10:49 AM | message detail
Wow, insane 51% updates for Tetris in the deep night.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/9/2009 5:52:53 AM | message detail
Oh wow, Tetris really slaughtered Mega Man 2 over night. It was 55/45 at the end of the Power Hour, and now it's 57/43.

And now Pac-Man's going up.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/9/2009 5:55:25 AM | message detail
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