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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 708

transients | Posted 5/8/2009 6:34:18 PM | message detail
I'll take it as a tentative top 10 game, and we'll probably never know thanks to G/S and then OOT.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/8/2009 6:34:54 PM | message detail
And I do think RBY is a top 10 game, or close to it at least. But this talk about it being a top 5 game guaranteed is a bunch of nonsense -- that's overrating it hard based no next to nothing. The most anyone should be willing to take it right now is like a 9-10 spot until we see it again.

The argument was for the 7th position, or around it. Top 5 is crazy.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 6:35:21 PM | message detail
Fallout 3: Hey, this match is still going on! Fallout 3 had a pretty bad board vote, but it's recovered to the point that it's got around 59% on Halo 3, which is a respectable number for it. 37-38% is a good number here.

Grade: B+

Halo 3: Hey, the one Halo game that did what it was supposed to, which was get 2nd place without much of a struggle. It didn't even lose the lead to Left 4 Dead either!

Grade: B

Left 4 Dead: It kept up with Halo 3 for most of the night, but morning rose and killed off whatever chances it had up taking a brief lead. Still, staying above 20% is pretty decent here.

Grade: C

Mass Effect: Man, it's hard to know what grade to give to games when you had no idea how they were going to perform! A lot of people were hyping Mass Effect > Halo 3 here, but I figured it was going to get last place, so...

Grade: D
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/8/2009 6:35:56 PM | message detail
From: transients
I'll take it as a tentative top 10 game, and we'll probably never know thanks to G/S and then OOT.

Unless it wins in R2 or places R3.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/8/2009 6:35:58 PM | message detail
I think RBY can still get to R4 and beyond, even with OoT there. When's the last time Pokemon has succumbed to SFF/LFF?

(if you say Fox/Pikachu I will hurt you)

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creativename | Posted 5/8/2009 6:36:28 PM | message detail
Nice pics for the SMB/LoZ match.

Sonic looks good and dominates his pic. Course he'll still get humiliated by SMB3.

I don't recall seeing anyone say it isn't a top 10 game since the day of GSC's match.

I think most people never said this for the same reason as me - I didn't realize it even needed to be said. I mean top 10, come on now. There's some damn strong games up there.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/8/2009 6:37:21 PM | message detail
Games I'd personally take over RBY:

OoT
FF7
CT
LttP
SMB3
Melee
FFX
SM64
FF8

Additionally, I'd take these in a direct match, but am not completely sure indirectly on all of them:

SMB1
LoZ
SMW
TP

Brawl is a borderline case. I could see that going either way in a relatively big way.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 6:37:23 PM | message detail
Link's Awakening has to be a good bit ahead of Majora's Mask for FFVI > RBY to be true here, to the tune of 58.7% for LA.

I don't have a problem believing that to be the case, but then again, I don't know squat about the Zelda hierarchy.
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creativename | Posted 5/8/2009 6:37:37 PM | message detail
So what about that sig bet Soul? I say MGS will get 1st this round.
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ZFS | Posted 5/8/2009 6:37:51 PM | message detail
Arguing for a 7th spot over Final Fantasy X, or equally likely over Melee, based on its match is dumb. The whole argument revolves around it crushing a pack full of Nintendo, one being a Zelda game we've never had a read on before.

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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/8/2009 6:37:56 PM | message detail
I think RBY can still get to R4 and beyond, even with OoT there. When's the last time Pokemon has succumbed to SFF/LFF?

The thing about Pokemon is that it's a handheld series, so it's a lot harder to SFF it. I think it's 50/50 right now for it to get SFFed or not when it faces OOT.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 6:38:01 PM | message detail
When's the last time Pokemon has succumbed to SFF/LFF?

If you asked me, yesterday.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/8/2009 6:38:17 PM | message detail
Oh, and I'd take FF6 too, but would be a bit worried.

Knew I was forgetting something.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/8/2009 6:38:40 PM | message detail
If LA got 58.7% on MM I would buy a hat and eat it.

FFVI being RBY's floor isn't all RBY being strong. FFVI performed quite crappily.

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creativename | Posted 5/8/2009 6:38:53 PM | message detail
SMB1 and LoZ rock the **** out of RBY.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 6:39:16 PM | message detail
If LA got 58.7% on MM I would buy a hat and eat it.

Why exactly? LA can't be that strong or MM can't be that weak?
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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/8/2009 6:39:42 PM | message detail
Sig bet works for me. I've been on the RBY > MGS train since the bracket was first released, and I'm not jumping off anytime soon.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/8/2009 6:39:49 PM | message detail
SMB1 and LoZ rock the **** out of RBY.

Probably. It's SMW I'm not sure about indirectly, mostly. The others I'm fairly sure beat it both directly and indirectly.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/8/2009 6:39:53 PM | message detail
I would easily take RBY over SMB and LoZ. Easily. Like, not even worried.

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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/8/2009 6:41:01 PM | message detail
SMB I would take over RBY. LOZ, no.

Then again, I also consider SMB a top 10 game too.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/8/2009 6:41:10 PM | message detail
What evidence is there against RBY being that strong other than personal expectations? It beat up Majora's Mask much worse than FFVI beat Link's Awakening. Maybe floor wasn't the right term to use there- I can still see FFVI winning a match with RBY- but I would consider RBY a fairly big favorite.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/8/2009 6:41:15 PM | message detail
Why exactly? LA can't be that strong or MM can't be that weak?

A little of both.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 6:42:52 PM | message detail
2007-2009 Overall

The Good: Good performances by MGS4 and Brawl as we anticipate their rematch in round 3, and it looks like it'll be SFF free on Brawl's end, at least! Fallout 3's making plans to be there, too. Halo 3 and Grand Theft Auto IV not disappointing has to be considered a good thing, too!

The STAR: Gotta be Call of Duty 4, no question about it. No one else put up a performance like that in this division.

The Bad: Street Fighter IV put up a pretty sorry performance, nearly getting doubled by GTA IV and squeaking by Persona 4. Also, Left 4 Dead's pic creeps me out.

The TURD: Likewise, gotta be Mario Galaxy, no question about it. No one else put up a performance like that in this division.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 6:43:57 PM | message detail
I would easily take RBY over SMB and LoZ. Easily. Like, not even worried.

I don't think RBY is worth much more than 40% on Mario 3, so I think there's reason to be worried unless you think it's worth more than 45% on it. Then you're getting into SSBM territory.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/8/2009 6:44:59 PM | message detail
LittleBigPlanet: lol charmander

YES! I get mentioned.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/8/2009 6:46:02 PM | message detail
Pfft, hard to call Mario Galaxy a flop. All the signs were there, noone saw them. Most people after that match said that my logic was dead on, whereas there's nothing to explain SF4 aside from lol street failter

The point is that I was drawing a comparison to CoD4's performance in comparison to Halo 3, while completely ignoring Galaxy. Them being similiar would affect their performance relative to Galaxy, sure, but I see no reason why that would effect their performance relative to each other.

Aside from the fact that 2 months before that poll, Master Chief was a potential Noble Nine breaker
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/8/2009 6:47:08 PM | message detail
I just have a lot of trouble seeing LoZ or SMB being that much stronger than MM.

RBY got 63.72% on MM. That's a huge gap to make up. It would just feel very weird to me.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 6:47:39 PM | message detail
Aside from the fact that 2 months before that poll, Master Chief was a potential Noble Nine breaker

Due to hype. Once the game was released, the Chief no longer was.

Same thing with Brawl. Heck, Brawl probably would've beaten Melee despite the fact that it hadn't even been released yet two years ago.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 6:48:24 PM | message detail
I just have a lot of trouble seeing LoZ or SMB being that much stronger than MM.

RBY got 63.72% on MM. That's a huge gap to make up. It would just feel very weird to me.


It could also be an SFF-inflated gap, and I personally don't have any trouble seeing LoZ or SMB clear that number. MM's not some bastion of strength here.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/8/2009 6:49:55 PM | message detail
I just have a lot of trouble seeing LoZ or SMB being that much stronger than MM.

RBY got 63.72% on MM. That's a huge gap to make up. It would just feel very weird to me.


I easily see LoZ and SMB outdoing that on MM. Easily. I mean, MM is my favorite Zelda and I can't even think of any defense of it in that match. It would be buried.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/8/2009 6:50:37 PM | message detail
RBY SFFing MM is still the worst argument for it being overrated I've heard.

1. Pokemon in general so far has been shown to be somewhat separate from Nintendo. Overlap is ther,e but not as pronounced.
2. Zelda. Get SFFd?
3. Pokemon is an RPG. MM is an action-adventure game.
4. Pokemon is a handheld game. MM is an N64 game.

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/8/2009 6:51:06 PM | message detail
Zelda 1 was the other game I hyped up for months before the contest, but at this point I'd take RBY over it. I seriously doubt Zelda 1 would put up 63% on Majora's Mask, and I'd take that game to go even with Mario 64 and SMW. And yes, that means RBY gets 45%+ on SMB3, what it needs to be at the level of FFX, which would be my #7 without RBY, but no, that doesn't push it into SSBM territory.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 6:52:42 PM | message detail
2. Zelda. Get SFFd?

Yeah, ask Wind Waker all about that one.

And arguments 3 and 4 are flimsy and you know it.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/8/2009 6:54:42 PM | message detail
Actually, to clarify, I think I'd take SMB and LoZ to clear, or at least get near, that margin on MM before SFF. Once you factor that in though, it would get ugly.
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MnMZero | Posted 5/8/2009 6:55:48 PM | message detail
I can't wait for the second round to start. Too many people overrating/writing off games based on one first round match. Let's get this started with some MM2 redemption!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/8/2009 6:56:06 PM | message detail
Yeah, ask Wind Waker all about that one.

WW was a mixed reactions GC game going up against *the* GC game. RBY and MM share almost nothing in common.

And I don't think WW was SFFd much, if at all, anyway. Not after what Metroid Prime did.


And arguments 3 and 4 are flimsy and you know it.

What? The very first thing you should look at when comparing LFF with games is genre. Them being on different systems is just a bonus.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 6:58:21 PM | message detail
RBY and MM share almost nothing in common.

Except the most important thing: They're Nintendo.

What? The very first thing you should look at when comparing LFF with games is genre. Them being on different systems is just a bonus.

There's absolutely no way to prove that being on different consoles or being different genres even matters because we've had two Games Contests with divisions by era.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/8/2009 6:59:57 PM | message detail
Except the most important thing: They're Nintendo.

Company LFF matters a lot less with games, I would imagine. Genre is far more important.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 7:00:39 PM | message detail
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transients | Posted 5/8/2009 7:00:40 PM | message detail
absolutely nobody argued for Pokemon to SFF Zelda until it went and put big numbers up. I'll say it's a possibility, but that it shows RBY's strength that it can pound a Zelda game into the ground like that.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 7:01:22 PM | message detail
Company LFF matters a lot less with games, I would imagine. Genre is far more important.

There's absolutely no reason to believe this unless you think each Nintendo fan only plays one genre.

(Hint: They don't)
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/8/2009 7:01:51 PM | message detail
Zelda does have a very good history with resisting SFF. Zelda holding up very well against Mario and Midna nearly beating Mewtwo are probably the best examples, especially the latter one. It's not clear that Melee SFF'd Wind Waker much, if at all- I at least was expecting a worse beatdown.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/8/2009 7:01:55 PM | message detail
Company LFF matters a lot less with games, I would imagine. Genre is far more important.

I would generally agree that it matters less with games, but I hold Nintendo to be an exception to this. It certainly isn't as bad as it is with characters, but it is still notable. Why it only seems to work that way with Nintendo, I'm not quite sure, but Nintendo in general seems to have the worst SFF issues.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/8/2009 7:02:53 PM | message detail
There's absolutely no reason to believe this unless you think each Nintendo fan only plays one genre.

...This makes no sense.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 7:02:54 PM | message detail
Unless you think Wind Waker can't even double Disgaea, there's no reason to think Melee didn't SFF it.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/8/2009 7:04:05 PM | message detail
Disgaea obviously benefited from the format and being against 3 Nintendo games. I don't think Melee's score vs WW has much SFF at all in it.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 7:04:49 PM | message detail
...This makes no sense.

I'm just saying why in the world genre matters when we've seen over and over and over and over again that Nintendo SFF is the nastiest kind of SFF out there.

Heck, any sort of SFF in any of these Games Contests is questionable because we've only had one-and-a-half of them so far. We can guess where there's SFF, but you really can't confirm it until you've seen them in a non-SFF situation.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/8/2009 7:05:19 PM | message detail
And since I'm bored:

BT's Stars and Turds

*disclaimer, these choices were based on my expectations

Stars:

1. Pokemon R/B/Y


It's hard to argue with this. I had it winning that match, and while the performance can be questioned (3 N64 Nintendo franchises as opponents) it really dominated any and all expectations. If someone told me before that match that it would almost double Majora's Mask, I would have lol'd at them. Good show.

2. Final Fantasy 8

This game had a pretty huge range it could have fallen under, but the first round performance let's us put it around Final Fantasy 10's level (new level, not 2004 level), which is higher than most of us would have thought. It impressed so much that there's still a very realistic chance it can advance over Starcraft despite Final Fantasy 9.

3. Metal Gear Solid 3

As painful as it was to play this game, it really impressed, although how much of that was franchise voting or actual weakness on WoW and Halo's part, MGS3 went from being out in the first round to potentially getting out of this division.

It sickens me that this abortion of a game is probably stronger than the masterpieces that were MGS and MGS2.

4. Pokemon Gold/Silver

Not as surprising considering R/B/Y's performance the day before. If this match was first, it would have blown all of our minds away.

5. The Elder Scrolls

Both Morrowind and Oblivion did a lot better than I ever thought they would. I figured Oblivion was an easy 4th place in that match. It seems as though WRPGs are on the rise here, judging by this and KotOR

6. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic

Speaking of which, this one was really out of left field. What possible reason does KotOR have to be stronger (relative) than it was in 2004? KotOR 2? Not likely. Definitely a pleasant surprise to see it perform very well

7. Mario 3

While not very surprising, Mario 3 deserves a spot here if only by how badly it beat down that turboturbofodder pack. It was glorious

8. Super Mario Kart

What was a debateable Sonic 3/Super Metroid match quickly turned into a barnburner, but with Mario Kart threatening Metroid. With this result and Doom dying, next round's Nintendo's SNES Fourpack of Awesome should be a good one.

9. Chrono Trigger

Hard to disagree with this one. It beat the crap out of that pack and showed that it definitely has what it takes to tangle with the big boys still. Shame the CT/LttP rematch will be ruined twice by SFF.

lol failer bacon

10. Kingdom Hearts

I have to put both of them on this list as both had really impressive matches, and both made themselves threats to go to round 3 when neither had a chance before. Hopefully we don't have to wait much longer to see if my 2006 prediction for Sora to be a Noble Nine breaker after KH3 comes true.

Honourable Mentions:

SMB1, Half-Life 2, Portal, Fallout 3, Brawl, Link's Awakening
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 7:06:29 PM | message detail
Disgaea obviously benefited from the format and being against 3 Nintendo games. I don't think Melee's score vs WW has much SFF at all in it.

Heh, the hardcore voter argument. And there's no reason to believe it benefited from being against three Nintendo games unless there WAS SFF. That's part of the reason it did so well.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/8/2009 7:06:55 PM | message detail
Triple LFF is a powerful force before SFF is added into the mix, and honestly I could see Wind Waker being pretty weak nowadays. Remember Metroid Prime? Halo? Starcraft? All overrated in 2004, and WW has as much reason to have dropped as any of them.
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