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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 708

LeonhartFour | Posted 5/9/2009 2:36:44 PM | message detail
How in the world does it reference Mario 1 other than having the same name with "New" on the front of the title?
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ZFS | Posted 5/9/2009 2:39:36 PM | message detail
Bowser Jr get him outta my SMB tbqh

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/9/2009 2:40:02 PM | message detail
Retcon Bowser Jr. out of existence.
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ZFS | Posted 5/9/2009 2:40:42 PM | message detail
save_us.koopakids

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/9/2009 2:43:42 PM | message detail
nsmb might not be a remake, but it does make people think of the original by the name
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/9/2009 2:50:21 PM | message detail
All that's news to me -- I understood they were just aiming to go back to simple platforming with a few new power-ups.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/9/2009 2:57:33 PM | message detail
And Tetris drops below 40%.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/9/2009 3:11:14 PM | message detail
I think a lot of people are overthinking Mario/Zelda. Say what you will about SMB being more respected or whatever, SMB3 is even (much) more so and Zelda still got over 43% on it. (And, by the way, thanks for pointing out there was no ASV, but the point stands that Zelda won the day vote easily- Mario 3 was over 60% overnight and ended up below 57%). If you don't trust the 2004 numbers, there's no more reason to believe Zelda would do worse now relative to SMB3 than that it would do better. Discount them entirely, we're left with Mario vs. Zelda. Zelda wins.

If only the NES fanbase were voting, I'd give SMB a good chance, but the N64/GC/Wii fanbase will ensure Zelda's victory. Zelda has been a far bigger series than Mario for the past 11 years (OOT, MM, WW, TP and others vs. SMG, SMS, and NSMB). That's not to say that Zelda 1 is primarily fueled by franchise voting, by the way- without its own, nautral, strength, the Zelda name wouldn't save it here.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/9/2009 3:15:43 PM | message detail
Anyone thinking franchise voting will help LoZ over SMB is deluding themselves.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/9/2009 3:20:57 PM | message detail
Does anyone have any idea why vote totals are so low on the site? We're heading for about 10k less votes compare to last round.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/9/2009 3:23:04 PM | message detail
Probably last round people were interested because it was the beginning of a new contest, but now they've lost interest after 8 days of modern games the site doesn't really like. Votals should go up as the contest progresses though, if we get some interesting matches.
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Meeks54 | Posted 5/9/2009 3:28:07 PM | message detail

From: creativename | #062
And Pokemon RBY is threatening to break down that wall.

RBY has to have the most overrated performance of the first round. IMO the RBY overestimation around here is borderline ridiculous.




I know I ask you this alot, but it does bare repeating.



How does it feel to be wrong about everything Creative? Does it ever jar you? Do you ever just want to give it all up? How is it possible to never be right?
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
xp1337 | Posted 5/9/2009 3:28:30 PM | message detail
Well, we seem to be ahead of last match in vote totals so far by a little bit.

However, we're way behind the last Saturday match (MGS3/Halo 2/WoW/Okami, I think). Like around 14,000 votes behind at this time.
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ZFS | Posted 5/9/2009 3:28:51 PM | message detail
MWC post

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red sox 777 | Posted 5/9/2009 3:31:30 PM | message detail
I wouldn't expect Tetris and MM2 to be big vote draws, much less Pac-Man and DK. Tomorrow should be better- if votals don't improve as our top games again take the stage again the next few days, we'll have a problem.

To MWC: creative has one of the most successful prediction histories of anyone, in or outside this topic.
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Meeks54 | Posted 5/9/2009 3:37:39 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #465
I wouldn't expect Tetris and MM2 to be big vote draws, much less Pac-Man and DK. Tomorrow should be better- if votals don't improve as our top games again take the stage again the next few days, we'll have a problem.

To MWC: creative has one of the most successful prediction histories of anyone, in or outside this topic.




I don't care. I have seen him more than a couple times this year say stuff that is flat out insane, culminating in the incredibly moronic "SMB would take the piss out of RBY". RBY would absolutely demolish SMB, much worse than LoZ is about too.


And it is going to kill MGS, while GSC is holding it back, it is an absolute top 10 assured. It did not beat Majora's Mask, it dismantled Zelda. There is a difference, and we all know it.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/9/2009 3:40:25 PM | message detail
"It did not beat Majora's Mask, it dismantled Zelda"

Really? When did this become a series contest? 'Cause I can assure you, if you pit RBY against a strong Zelda game, like OoT or LttP, it gets curbstomped. It would be 60-40 easily, maybe even 65-35. MM is much, MUCH weaker than your average Zelda game, so it wasn't a dismantling of Zelda by any means. It was more like defeating FFIX, to give you an idea.
xp1337 | Posted 5/9/2009 3:41:27 PM | message detail
No way that RBY demolishes SMB. Even should it be able to win, I can't see it going past 54%.

I still like SMB in that match up directly though. Indirectly, I could entertain some arguments, but directly I'd take SMB and feel pretty good about it.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/9/2009 3:42:35 PM | message detail
I don't think Pokemon can challenge the top tier games on this site unless it had an extremely advantageous situation, but I do think its performance calls for it being a Top 15ish game until proven otherwise. It's very hard to discredit its 64% on Majora's Mask. Melee put up under 65% on Wind Waker, and most of us here would call Melee a top six game. There's only so much breathing room you can put between Wind Waker and Majora before you start to sound really silly, so yeah, Pokemon's performance was insane and the most impressive of the first round.

That said, I do think it was an overperformance, which is why I'm only calling it Top 15ish for now (had I thought that performance was totally legit, Pokemon would be a guaranteed Top 10). 64% on MM is crazy enough, but 81% against Perfect Dark? 85% on Banjo-Kazooie? These are known games with an actual fanbase, and they got treated like freakin' Gunstar Heroes and Shining Force and Insert Japanese Name Here. It would blow my mind if those games weren't splitting significantly.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/9/2009 3:44:50 PM | message detail
Oh, I'd definitely agree that RBY is Top 15 so far. I could even see Top 10 (But on the 9-10 side, not the 7-8 side, and I'm not taking RBY against any of the top 6 at all).
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/9/2009 3:45:37 PM | message detail
POYW: To me, while impressive, it doesn't elicit the "ZOMG RBY teh powerhouse!!!!!1!!!" that it seems to provoke in others, because I'm not so sure about MM's strength even when I love the game to bits. Let me ask you a question: if you pitted FFIX against MM, who would you expect to win, and by how much? To me, that's MM's ballpark, which makes RBY seem like a near-elite, but still having a noticeable gap between it and the Sinister Six.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/9/2009 3:48:43 PM | message detail
...I agree with that. There is a noticeable gap between the Top 6 and Top 15ish. Whether or not you consider the top 15 to be all powerhouses is up to you, but if so, I guess that would make Pokemon a powerhouse. If I had to scour the bracket right now, I'd probably have a hard time finding 15 games to beat it after that Round 1 performance, but that could all change this round (I'm expecting it to).
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/9/2009 3:52:49 PM | message detail
IMO, I'd put RBY at 11 right now. Here are the games I'd take to beat it:

SMB1
Zelda 1
SMB3
LttP
FF7
SM64 (Weird, but I'd give it to SM64 after a close match)
CT
FF8
OoT
SSBM

...Maaaaaybe you could make a case for Brawl, but I wouldn't be too sure about it. Still, that seems about right.
Meeks54 | Posted 5/9/2009 3:55:40 PM | message detail
If I thought MM got SFFed, I would say low top 10. But I believe there is no chance it did, and that it is a top 5 game, I would probably take CT over it right now after its round 1, but I would take RBY over ALttP right now for #4 and be very confident in what was about to happen, and I would have no fear at all of Melee or SMB 3. After it takes MGS hard next round while being SFFed by the only game in the bracket not named Oot that can SFF it, it will be clear to others as well. Seriously how many games could take MGS while being SFFed by the worst game possible for it (lower than it)? FF VII could take MGS while against X I am sure. OoT would probably take MGS while meeting ALttP. But could CT take MGS while facing FF VI? Could ALttP take MGS while against LoZ? Would anybody here take SMB 3 or Melee against MGS while against SM64 or Brawl?

It is for real, it is that strong, and it will show it very soon.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/9/2009 3:58:29 PM | message detail
I'll ask the same question I did to PYOW: FFIX vs. MM, who you got and by how much?
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/9/2009 4:02:22 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy IX with 51.17% (actually 51.16987, but the GameFAQs percentages are not as precise as my predictions).
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xp1337 | Posted 5/9/2009 4:03:43 PM | message detail
If I had to try and put together a Top 15 or so right now, I'd think I'd probably come up with something like this:

OoT
FF7
CT
LttP
SMB3
Melee
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TP
FFX
SM64
Brawl
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FF8
FF6
SMB
LoZ
RBY

However, a lot of that is subject to change after we some more performances out of these.


Controversial opinions alert: I'm also giving FF8 the benefit of the doubt and calling that performance legitimate strength. (Starcraft is obviously way down, but I still think FF8 showed real strength there). I'm also giving FF6 benefit of the doubt that that was a fluke. If it does that again though, it drops to bottom of this list barring something else doing something similar.

7-10 (TP, FFX, SM64, and Brawl) are all extremely close and I could see that playing out in pretty much any order.

Same for 11-15.

However, I wouldn't expect any of the games in any grouping there (1-6, 7-10, 11-15) to end up in a different group. As it stands, I would see RBY's ceiling at 11. The rest of the contest could prove me wrong, but as it stands, this is what I'd go with.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/9/2009 4:05:06 PM | message detail
I've supported RBY being strong for months, but let's not get ahead of ourselves: RBY hasn't beaten MGS while being triple LFF'd yet, so let's not use that as evidence for RBY being a top 5 game!
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PegasusLover123 | Posted 5/9/2009 4:06:15 PM | message detail
So looking at the next match here it looks like it will be mario>zelda here, but it could be inverted as well.

After seeing what happened to metroid prime i don't feel confident about the original metroid.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/9/2009 4:07:10 PM | message detail
From: xp1337
If I had to try and put together a Top 15 or so right now, I'd think I'd probably come up with something like this:

OoT
FF7
CT
LttP
SMB3
Melee
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TP
FFX
SM64
Brawl
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FF8
FF6
SMB
LoZ
RBY

However, a lot of that is subject to change after we some more performances out of these.


Controversial opinions alert: I'm also giving FF8 the benefit of the doubt and calling that performance legitimate strength. (Starcraft is obviously way down, but I still think FF8 showed real strength there). I'm also giving FF6 benefit of the doubt that that was a fluke. If it does that again though, it drops to bottom of this list barring something else doing something similar.

7-10 (TP, FFX, SM64, and Brawl) are all extremely close and I could see that playing out in pretty much any order.

Same for 11-15.

However, I wouldn't expect any of the games in any grouping there (1-6, 7-10, 11-15) to end up in a different group. As it stands, I would see RBY's ceiling at 11. The rest of the contest could prove me wrong, but as it stands, this is what I'd go with.


My main problem with this is how you can have Brawl in 10th and MGS4 not in the top 15. Unless you don't think it's as strong as the GotY showed us since you said that the 11-15 were a clear step below 7-10. I don't think Brawl gets close to that high.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/9/2009 4:08:36 PM | message detail
"Final Fantasy IX with 51.17% (actually 51.16987, but the GameFAQs percentages are not as precise as my predictions). "

That's more or less what I'd take too. While I think that what we saw was RBY's real strength, MM isn't as good as some people think. I'm 100% that, had it demolished FFIX with the same percentage, people would call it one heck of a showing, but wouldn't go so far as to call it top 10 material. I think that part of RBY's strength IS inflated, due to defeating ZELDAFEAR.
xp1337 | Posted 5/9/2009 4:08:51 PM | message detail
...I did overlook MGS4, didn't I? Whoops.

Put MGS4 between FF8 and FF6 and turn that into a Top 16.
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xp1337 | Posted 5/9/2009 4:10:40 PM | message detail
Also, I wouldn't use the phrase "clear step". By all means I could see 9-13 being very close, but I'd feel very good about taking a game in one group against one in a different one. It may end up extremely close, but I'd feel good about taking it.
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Meeks54 | Posted 5/9/2009 4:10:56 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #478
I've supported RBY being strong for months, but let's not get ahead of ourselves: RBY hasn't beaten MGS while being triple LFF'd yet, so let's not use that as evidence for RBY being a top 5 game!




I did too. I had it top 10 before the contest. So, for it to go up for me like it did everyone else, it has to go top 5, as I all ready had it where everyone else currently puts it, but it clearly outperformed what I thought it would do too, so yeah, top 5. That said, I have no doubts whatsoever that it is about to do that to MGS, so I have no problem using that as evidence, because I have that as much of a lock as OoT and FF VII being in the finals is.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
red sox 777 | Posted 5/9/2009 4:11:19 PM | message detail
As for a top 15....

Final Fantasy VII
Ocarina of Time

Chrono Trigger
A Link to the Past
Super Mario Bros. 3
Super Smash Bros. Melee

Final Fantasy X
Pokemon RBY
Final Fantasy VI
Final Fantasy VIII

The Legend of Zelda
Super Mario 64
Super Mario World
Metal Gear Solid
Twilight Princess

I'm rather torn between FFX and RBY right now.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/9/2009 4:13:02 PM | message detail
OoT
FF7
CT
LttP
SMB3
Melee
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FFX
SM64
RBY
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FF8
TP
SMB
LoZ
FF6

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ZFS | Posted 5/9/2009 4:18:04 PM | message detail
Man, Pokemon talk is getting as bad as World of Warcraft! I've given my opinion on it plenty of times before, so instead here's what I'm thinking the top 15 looks like right now...

1) Final Fantasy VII
2) Ocarina of Time

3) Chrono Trigger
4) Link to the Past
5) Super Mario Bros. 3
6) Final Fantasy X
7) Smash Bros. Melee

8) Final Fantasy VIII
9) Final Fantasy VI
10) Pokemon RBY
11) Super Mario 64

12) Super Mario Bros.
13) Twilight Princess
14) Super Mario World
15) The Legend of Zelda

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 5/9/2009 4:19:04 PM | message detail
What would people rank as the top games since the last contest? I'm thinking something like:

1. TP
2. SSBB
3. RE4
4. KH2
5. CoD4
6. MGS4

Is probably appropriate, given the results of the first round.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 5/9/2009 4:19:11 PM | message detail
I would put TP ahead of Zelda 1 at this point.
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Meeks54 | Posted 5/9/2009 4:22:00 PM | message detail

From: SonicRaptor | #489
I would put TP ahead of Zelda 1 at this point.




You probably won't after tonight.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/9/2009 4:22:32 PM | message detail
Man, Pokemon talk is getting as bad as World of Warcraft!

What kind of non-Albion WoW talk has there been? I've been one of the supporters, and I have getting second here and then getting killed next round. That seems to be pretty reasonable (if not normal).
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ZFS | Posted 5/9/2009 4:24:07 PM | message detail
Pre-contest WoW talk, that is. I don't think anyone is ridiculously overestimating it anymore.

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xp1337 | Posted 5/9/2009 4:28:25 PM | message detail
Actually, the more I think about it, the more I'm questioning whether I would put MGS4 in there. Or at the least that high.

I know it doesn't sit well with the GotY poll, but while Brawl is by far the most vulnerable of the games on that list to me, I can't find too much to complain about its Round 1 performance so far, which looks good against Melee's... and Melee was in a 3 Nintendo + Disgaea match... Not that MGS4 did horrible or anything, but when I start thinking about putting it against SMB/LoZ I start thinking, "Nah..."
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/9/2009 4:34:29 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
charmander6000 | Posted 5/9/2009 4:35:37 PM | message detail
You know it was an all-Nintendo match right? Even if you don't believe that Pokemon RBY SFF Majora's Mask there was still Perfect Dark and Banjo-Kazooie LFF.

Also I don't believe that RBY and GS are that far apart personally I'd take RBY with 55%, though anyone going 60%+ is pushing it.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/9/2009 4:36:56 PM | message detail
FFVII
OoT

CT
LTTP
Mario 3
Melee

FFX
FFVIII
FFVI
RBY
SMW
Mario 64

Uhh...Yeah, I don't even know beyond the top 6. I don't know how anyone could speak with any certainty on that.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/9/2009 4:37:25 PM | message detail
If the RBY/GS split is 55/45, I would put money on Majora's Mask to advance right now. I'm expecting a doubling as the worst case scenario for RBY.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/9/2009 4:38:12 PM | message detail
G/S did well enough on MGS that I don't expect RBY to pound it quite THAT badly.

Though if it did, can't say I'd be surprised.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/9/2009 4:38:20 PM | message detail
Play FFVIII
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/9/2009 4:38:38 PM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekAIelXtIis
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