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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 707

charmander6000 | Posted 5/8/2009 11:17:35 AM | message detail
They're no different then any other analysis I read, content wise. Though sometimes they are hard to read.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: Fallout 3 > Halo 3 Points: 89/124
-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/8/2009 11:20:49 AM | message detail
Runner-Up: Doom
Donkey Kong Country was able to hold up better to SFF than I thought, but the percent it got should have still given Doom the win. This was the beginning of FPS failing in several matches before redeeming themselves near the end of the bracket. Had Doom won this match it would definitely have been the favourite to reach round 3.


Actually, I had Doom making it to round 2 in my bracket but I didn't pick it to go to round 3.

Turd of the Division: LoZ: Majora’s Mask
Even Pokemon fans didn’t expect Majora’s Mask to flop so badly. While the chance of RBY SFF Majora’s Mask is not that great, the chance existing is enough to make it embarrassing. I think this is the first time a Zelda game has flopped so badly, even in the first contest the only thing that comes close was Wind Waker/Metroid Prime and even then it was still hyped to win the division.

Runner-Up: Half-Life
In most sites Half-Life losing in round one would cause riots. Still Freeman has been working hard to improve his image and while Starcraft’s performance had a bit of foreshadowing Half-Life did perform well against Metroid Prime which did well against Wind Waker and there’s no way those two games would be that weak. Losing to Final Fantasy IX isn’t so much of a problem but letting it get 62.5% on you (FFIX > WW anyone?) is just plain terrible.


Honestly, I would have put Starcraft in one of those two spots.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/8/2009 11:22:22 AM | message detail
I gotta say Fallout 3 has done a pretty good performance after its horrible board vote.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 11:23:28 AM | message detail
but CoD4 has legit strength and LFF favoring it pretty clearly.

Yeah, but even with LFF, it still got 55.70% on it. How much LFF are you willing to give Galaxy and still have it beat CoD4 straight up? Because then you're giving D/P a legit shot at beating CoD4 if you think they LFF'd each other too much.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/8/2009 11:25:08 AM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #351
Though sometimes they are hard to read.


Yeah no offense or anything but sometimes they just feel.... "who cares?"
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BGE2 - Today: SMG > CoD4 - Points: 86/112 Vote: SMG
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/8/2009 11:29:06 AM | message detail
I’m probably going to get a few angry people for not including RBY in the star or runner-up, but we’ve all seen characters taking advantage of a SFF situation then flopping in a later round, for example Fox McCloud in 2007.

I highly doubt RBY SFFd anything.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/8/2009 11:30:58 AM | message detail
And man, that was one awful early vote for Fallout 3. It's about where it should be now, but losing the early vote to HALO of all things is never good.

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hochiminhX | Posted 5/8/2009 11:39:54 AM | message detail
Hochi's Treasure and Trash of Round 1:


Treasure:



Super Mario Bros: Excellent performance. SMB is now a lock over Zelda I, who, like every Zelda game, was less than impressive. That will be 8 free points for me since most people stupidly have Zelda > SMB.

Donkey Kong Country: Did not see this one coming. Doom is awful but DKC, despite SFF managed to win.

Final Fantasy: Wow. FF does very well against THE SNES Mario game.

Final Fantasy 4: Wow, over 50%? Exceeded my expectations.

Super Mario RPG: Nearly beat Goldeneye despite LFF from DKC2. I don't really care though.

Final Fantasy VII: This game is a monster and is unstoppable.

Mario Kart 64: Despite LFF from SF64, this game nearly put up 30% on a monster that is unstoppable.

Super Mario 64: Impressive but you beat a bunch of joke fodder so I actually retract my treasure award.

Chrono Trigger: Exceeded everyone's expectations. With Lttp's less than impressive performance, it is quite obvious that CT would win in a rematch probably with over 60%. Too bad it will get beaten by Lttp due to LFF from FFVII and FFVI.

Pokemon R/B/Y: This match was obvious and allowed me to own Yoblazer. However despite that, I had R/B/Y peged at 47% max. R/B/Y exceeded that though most of that was Zelda flopping.

Final Fantasy Tactics: Despite being SFFed by MGS and LFFed by Deus Ex, FFT still did pretty good here.

Final Fantasy 8: Despite being leeched by Xenogears, it still slaughtered a pretty strong four-pack.

Final Fantasy 9: Despite being leeched by Chrono Cross, it still put up nearly 30% on Ocarina of Time. Though to be fair, OoT is overrated and any game could put up 30% on OoT including Monopoly.

Final Fantasy X: MGS2 did good on SSBM but FFX just annihilated it.

Kingdom Hearts: A debated four pack turns into a 40% win for Kingdom Hearts. Further proof of Square's dominance.

Star Wars: KOTOR: An obscure crappy Xbox game nearly beat THE Xbox game.

Tales of Symphonia: I was bamboozled by this.

Kingdom Hearts II: Nearly beat frickin Resident Evil 4. Though I still stipulate Gears and Shadow leeched RE4.

Final Fantasy XII: HL2 > FF12 was a lock but FFXII almost won. Also, FF12 did 10% better on TP than it did 2 years ago.

Call of Duty 4: Well, this one was obvious.








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hochiminhX | Posted 5/8/2009 11:40:47 AM | message detail
Trash:



Mega Man 2: Holy crap Mega Man is awful. I'm not surprised though.

Legend of Zelda: I don't care that LoZ can decimate a foder four pack. I don't care. I never have cared and quite frankly, I never will care.

Sonic: Holy crap Sonic is awful. I'm not surprised though. Nobody gives two ****s about Sonic the Hedgehog. He's irrelevant.

Street Fighter II: I still can't wrap my head around this. SFII lost badly to fodder. My only explanation is that Sailor Bacon rigged the contest so he could be amused by more "WTF SF2 LOST???" topics. Frankly, I find it irritating.

Mega Man 3: Holy crap Mega Man is awful. Could still take advantage of FF/FF4 split next round though.

Sonic 3: Holy crap Sonic is awful. Couldn't take advantage of ultimate Nintendo split?

Super Metroid: Holy crap Metroid is awful.

Zelda: Lttp: Why did DKC advance? Because Lttp couldn't SFF it well enough. Bodes ill for the future.

Zelda: LA: LA > MMX was obvious. But the fact of the matter is that LA still lost badly to FFVI.

Sonic 2: Holy crap Sonic is awful.

SOTN: Sad.

SMW2: Yoshi's Island: Absolute fodder.

Zelda: Majora's Mask: So much for MM having any strength at all. There is no excuse - MM is terrible. Nobody likes it. Nobody.

Soul Calibur: Game that nearly beat KH nearly loses to a badly SFFed Xenogears?

Zelda: Ocarina of Time: Should have cleared 55% at least. FFIX nearly scored 30% despite being drained by Chrono Cross. FF9 is not that strong. Kuja lost to Master Hand. Zidane lost to Ness and Alucard.

Metroid Prime: Holy crap Metroid is awful.

Zelda: Wind Waker: SFF or not, there is no excuse for this abyssmal performance. Even Metroid Prime would do better here. Metroid Prime!

Gears of War: More like Gears of Bore.

Zelda: Twilight Princess: TP got 70% on FF12 2 years ago. Now it barely broke 60%. It lost almost 10%!

Super Mario Galaxy: What a joke.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/8/2009 11:41:15 AM | message detail
Though to be fair, OoT is overrated and any game could put up 30% on OoT including Monopoly.

Why the **** didn't we rally for Monopoly?

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/8/2009 11:41:40 AM | message detail
Star Wars: KOTOR: An obscure crappy Xbox game nearly beat THE Xbox game.

-sigh-
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/8/2009 11:43:52 AM | message detail
So anyway, some interesting comparisans.

Halo 1 vs. GTAIII
53.88%

ToS vs. San Andreas
51.75%

MGS2 vs. Morrowind
61.8%

MGS3 vs. WoW
59.48%


ToS/Oblivion/WoW could be a real slobberknocker.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/8/2009 11:45:15 AM | message detail
This contest loses all credibility if ToS makes round 3 imho
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/8/2009 11:45:54 AM | message detail
WoW vs. Halo 2
52.45%

Forgot this one.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 11:48:08 AM | message detail
This contest loses all credibility if ToS makes round 3 imho

It'd be more credible than if WoW makes round 3!
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lightsout06 | Posted 5/8/2009 11:51:42 AM | message detail
"Star Wars: KOTOR: An obscure crappy Xbox game nearly beat THE Xbox game."

WOW!!!! Thats a good one!
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BDawg | Posted 5/8/2009 11:53:36 AM | message detail
Back to the old games this new stuff makes me a cranky old man.
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HaRRicH | Posted 5/8/2009 12:13:45 PM | message detail
Yeah, but even with LFF, it still got 55.70% on it. How much LFF are you willing to give Galaxy and still have it beat CoD4 straight up? Because then you're giving D/P a legit shot at beating CoD4 if you think they LFF'd each other too much.

G/S got 46.67% on MGS and R/B/Y broke 50+% against LoZ:MM , PD, and BK. It's not so unreasonable based off of that to think the most recent Pokemon game would be well worth 45+% on CoD4 without SMG since I think most of us would take SMG to beat CoD4 in at least a close match. Between that and seeing D/P get 45.11% on SMG...I mean, why doubt Pokemon to do well there? It would do quite well against CoD4, though I wouldn't take that upset. I like taking SMG > CoD4 with ~54%-~55% and saying Pokemon's a bit too weird to trust to make that upset too.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 12:35:17 PM | message detail
I doubt DP's as strong as RBY or GS, however. I really don't know why you'd expect Galaxy to swing 10% or so to beat CoD4 in that scenario. That's quite a bit of LFF.
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deadeyedllv | Posted 5/8/2009 12:56:58 PM | message detail
After seeing the results of the first round, my second round predictions:

Tetris>Mega Man 2. Pretty easy to see how much MM2 bombed.
Zelda>SMB. Although SMB did very well in its match, I don't buy all the hype.
SMB3>Sonic. Even if there is Mario/Sonic SFF, there ain't enough to help SFII.
SMW>FF1. SFF can certainly change things, but I felt FF1 did a much better job in round 1.
LttP>Mario Kart. MK is likely to hold up best from the SFF and has the most casual fanbase.
FFVI>LA. Upset of round two right here!
FFVII>Goldeneye. SFF to really hurt the Nintendo games.
Chrono Trigger> Mario 64. Easy enough.
MGS>Pokemon G/S. Pokemon RBY might get second, but MM is done.
Zelda:OoT>FF8. lolz, Starcraft=flop of the contest. FF9 will not leech enough votes from FF8.
FFX>Kingdom Hearts. My most debated pick of round 2.
SSSM>Diablo. The race for second will actually be very close.
MGS3>Wow. yawn.
Zelda:TP>Kingdom Hearts 2. TP to leech some votes from RE4.
SSBB>CoD4. lolz, Galaxy=second worst flop of the contest.
MGS4>Fallout 3. This match will be very very close!


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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/8/2009 1:04:19 PM | message detail
Man Fallout 3 is bad with the asv
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/8/2009 1:08:47 PM | message detail
More like Halo 3 is awesome with it.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Fallout 3 > Halo 3 Points: 89/124
charmander6000 | Posted 5/8/2009 1:23:46 PM | message detail
Stars and Turds of Round 1: 2004-2006

Star of the Division: Tales of Symphonia
The one time something board 8 loves does something and almost nobody called the upset. I guess Tales of Symphonia could be considered a Final Fantasy VI light though based on its performance that may have been an insult. I never thought Tales of Symphonia would amount to anything in this contest let alone win. This was truly one of the biggest shockers of the contest.

Runner-Up: Okami
Leading against Halo 2, even if it was during its worst time was something I didn’t expect seeing. Despite not having very vocal fans or a franchise to fall back upon Amaterasu and Okami haven’t failed to impress in each contest. I think this is a game board 8 should start backing for instead of Tales of Symphonia or Phoenix Wright.

Turd of the Division: GTA: San Andreas
If Oblivion wins let it be, if Tales of Symphonia takes second so be it, but if San Andreas loses to God of War I must simply laugh. My how the mighty have fallen, I can’t believe that San Andreas won the 2004 GotY. You could blame it on Playstation 2 overlap, but that still doesn’t explain how God of War managed to defeat it. This would have been more acceptable if Vice City and III failed, but their performances were just fine.

Runner-Up: Gears of War
Gears of War was suppose to have an outside chance of upsetting Kingdom Hearts II if that game decided to flop. While Kingdom Hearts II didn’t flop Gears of War goes and decides to lose to Shadow of the Colossus. While the game wouldn’t have been as weak as Wander people don’t play Gears of War for Marcus Fenix either. Things were looking bad for shooters then the last five matches happen.

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: Fallout 3 > Halo 3 Points: 89/124
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 1:25:17 PM | message detail
This was truly one of the biggest shockers of the contest.

No, it wasn't. Anyone who thinks it was had too much faith in the other entrants.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/8/2009 1:26:08 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #374
This was truly one of the biggest shockers of the contest.

No, it wasn't. Anyone who thinks it was had too much faith in the other entrants.


Tell me 3 bigger shockers then.
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Yesmar | Posted 5/8/2009 1:30:42 PM | message detail
Tales of Symphonia finishing in second wasn't one of the biggest shocks of the contest. It beating San Andreas definitely was.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 1:30:42 PM | message detail
Diablo II: It won a heavily debated match without much trouble, and although it let Halo cut off a bit too much with the ASV, it's still set itself up as a favorite to advance to round 3 with Melee.

Grade: A-

Grand Theft Auto III: Heh, before Vice City, nobody had any expectations for III, but once Vice City advances, people expect III to do something, and it doesn't. I guess this could be viewed as a disappointment, but it really didn't do too badly. I mean, it only finished 5% behind first place, which is better than anyone would've expected before the contest, I'd have figured.

Grade: C

Halo: Oh man, this grade would be a lot lower if Halo's ASV hadn't bailed it out of big trouble yet again. It struggled with KOTOR nearly all day before its ASV gave it the lead and enabled it to cut 1000-1500 votes off of Diablo II's lead at the same time. Watching Halo and SSBM battle for ASV supremacy next round will be something. Again, that ASV also put Halo into reasonable conversation for advancing to round 3, though it's at a disadvantage at the moment.

Grade: C

Knights of the Old Republic: People expected this game to do poorly. I originally had it in third place before Vice City's showing, and I wish I had kept it there! Oh well. While I figured it would probably get 18-20% or so, I never thought it would be contending with Halo for second place nearly all day, and even with the ASV, it didn't get destroyed. One of the more impressive showings for a game that didn't advance.

Grade: B+
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 1:31:51 PM | message detail
Tell me 3 bigger shockers then.

It wasn't even the biggest shocker in its own match. San Andreas flopping and finishing dead last was a bigger surprise. I didn't have a problem thinking ToS could finish second because I didn't expect much from Oblivion or God of War. I didn't expect it to beat San Andreas though.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/8/2009 1:33:55 PM | message detail
Well it finishing second while San Andreas finished fourth was a shock...
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BGE2 - Today's Match: Fallout 3 > Halo 3 Points: 89/124
charmander6000 | Posted 5/8/2009 1:35:08 PM | message detail
Also we are on pace for this to be the lowest scoring match of the contest.

lol apathy.
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BGE2 - Today's Match: Fallout 3 > Halo 3 Points: 89/124
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/8/2009 1:37:49 PM | message detail
All of these games share a similar fanbase. Low votals was inevitable.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 1:39:33 PM | message detail
Disgaea: 15% on a fourpack with SSBM and Wind Waker isn't too shabby. It beat Fire Emblem pretty easily, but of course it was being double-SFF'd. Doubt it'd beat it in a fair one-on-one match, but like I said, not a shabby performance.

Grade: D+

Fire Emblem: I really didn't expect Fire Emblem to stay above single digits being put into the same poll with SSBM and Wind Waker. To me, that's semi-impressive, about as impressive as a game can get while only getting 10% of the vote.

Grade: D

Super Smash Bros. Melee: SSBM beat Wind Waker to a bloody pulp, getting 65% on it directly and 48.5% of the vote overall. You really couldn't have reasonably expected too much more out of it.

Grade: A

The Wind Waker: Heh, at least Majora's Mask beat Perfect Dark and Banjo-Kazooie combined. Wind Waker couldn't even beat Disgaea and Fire Emblem combined. Sure, it was probably getting hit harder by SFF than Majora's Mask was, but this was still a pretty sad performance. Looks like we're going to see a major Zelda game in last place next round. Who'd have thunk it?

Grade: D-
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/8/2009 1:39:40 PM | message detail
SA getting 4th was definitely a huge shocker. SA is still possibly the strongest GTA game; this puts ToS, GoW, and Oblivion higher than pretty much anyone expected.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 1:40:00 PM | message detail
Also we are on pace for this to be the lowest scoring match of the contest.

lol apathy.


I doubt it's apathy as much as it's "I haven't played these games."
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/8/2009 1:45:42 PM | message detail
2001-2003 Overall

The Good: Final Fantasy X and SSBM were the big boys in this division, and everyone knew it. They both put up good numbers and did what they were supposed to do. Throwing in its hat with the big boys was Kingdom Hearts, which we didn't expect. KOTOR also put in an unexpectedly strong showing, and Vice City managed to make it to round two. Diablo II won a debated fourpack.

The STAR: It's hard for me to decide here because there were some pretty good showings here, but I think I'll give the edge to Kingdom Hearts for owning its fourpack by much more than anyone was expecting. You can blame some of that on the others flopping, but that was still impressive.

The Bad: The Wind Waker, Metal Gear Solid 2, and Halo were all games that underperformed based on what we saw back in the first Games Contest. Heck, Halo's ASV probably saved it from being the Turd of this Division and maybe even the Turd of the Round.

The TURD: It's gotta be Metroid Prime here. Given a prime (lol get it) opportunity to prove it was the strongest Metroid title, instead it flops hard, losing to Vice City and finishing WAYYYYY behind Kingdom Hearts.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/8/2009 1:49:29 PM | message detail
Stars and Turds of Round 1: 2007-2009

Star of the Division: Call of Duty 4
For a game that didn’t come close to beating Super Mario Galaxy in 2007 Call of Duty 4 sure had a nice turn around. Some people thought that both Brawl and Galaxy could hit round 3 despite LFF. Well that dream is now over and while it’s unlikely Call of Duty 4 now has a realistic chance of leaving this division with Brawl.

Runner-Up: Pokemon D/P
Besides Call of Duty 4 none of the other games really stood out as impressive though going by 2007 GotY Pokemon has gone a long way from losing to Phantom Hourglass, now it’s hanging with the big games of 2007. The newest Pokemon game may not be the strongest, but it’s far from fodder like many thought before the contest.

Turd of the Division: Street Fighter IV
Are there any surprises here? Street Fighter IV was supposed to give Grand Theft Auto IV a match and even after Street Fighter II’s performance it became a match of which game would flop the least. Well, Street Fighter IV was behind Persona 4 for almost an entire day and it took everything it had to win by seven votes. Was Street Fighter IV too recent, or is the game not loved as much as some people though?

Runner-Up: Super Mario Galaxy
I’m beginning to wonder if Call of Duty 4 could have won the GotY if Halo 3 wasn’t in the same poll. Even with Pokemon Galaxy has a large gap to close before it’s even equal to it and with Brawl next round Galaxy is going to have to hope for a Brawl flop of epic proportions and Call of Duty 4 winning the entire division.

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BGE2 - Today's Match: Fallout 3 > Halo 3 Points: 89/124
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/8/2009 2:01:31 PM | message detail
Lets say that Halo 3 finishes here with 42% on Fallout 3.

What is more impressive: putting up 42% on halo 3 or 36.5% on Portal? I don't know, I think its about even really.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/8/2009 2:07:23 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/8/2009 2:07:53 PM | message detail
From: MyWorldIsCrono
Lets say that Halo 3 finishes here with 42% on Fallout 3.

What is more impressive: putting up 42% on halo 3 or 36.5% on Portal? I don't know, I think its about even really.


Yeah, I love this idea. Now how to put enough spin on it to find MGS4 > Portal again ...
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Although I'd settle for FO3 > Portal as well.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/8/2009 2:08:39 PM | message detail
Are those numbers backwards or am I missing something
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/8/2009 2:08:51 PM | message detail
Um, I'm discrediting Portal by saying Halo 3 takes it out easily.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/8/2009 2:09:34 PM | message detail

From: The n00b Avenger | #390
Are those numbers backwards or am I missing something


MGS4 put up 36.5% on portal and it looks like Fallout 3 will put up about 42% on Halo 3, and I think Halo 3 is a good deal stronger then Portal.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/8/2009 2:09:41 PM | message detail
63.5% on Portal is more impressive- Halo has looked consistently bad this contest, and I'd expect Portal to be able to handle KOTOR.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/8/2009 2:09:51 PM | message detail
From: MyWorldIsCrono
Um, I'm discrediting Portal by saying Halo 3 takes it out easily.

I know, that's why I need more spin.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 5/8/2009 2:10:17 PM | message detail
Star Wars: KOTOR: An obscure crappy Xbox game nearly beat THE Xbox game.

Did you just call KOTOR crappy? Are you serious?
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/8/2009 2:11:23 PM | message detail

From: red sox 777 | #393
63.5% on Portal is more impressive- Halo has looked consistently bad this contest, and I'd expect Portal to be able to handle KOTOR.


I think Portal might be able to barely take out Kotor, but I'm thinking Halo 3 is the strongest Halo game, similiar to how GTA4 is apparently the strongest GTA game. These types of games seem to be based on recency.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/8/2009 2:12:05 PM | message detail
similiar to how GTA4 is apparently the strongest GTA game.

Not even close. VC > 3 > SA > 4.
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ZFS | Posted 5/8/2009 2:12:29 PM | message detail
Portal is probably right there with Halo 3, if not possibly above it with how crappy Halo has done this contest, meaning MGS4 is going to be fine. Fallout 3 isn't going to beat MGS4, that's for sure.

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/8/2009 2:13:43 PM | message detail

From: XxSoulxX | #397
similiar to how GTA4 is apparently the strongest GTA game.

Not even close. VC > 3 > SA > 4.


And what evidence do we have based on this contest that 4 is the weakest?
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/8/2009 2:13:54 PM | message detail

From: MyWorldIsCrono | #392
MGS4 put up 36.5% on portal and it looks like Fallout 3 will put up about 42% on Halo 3


So MGS4 lost to Portal and Fallout3 is going to lose to Halo 3?
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.