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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 706

LeonhartFour | Posted 5/7/2009 12:21:45 PM | message detail
MGS3 had to deal with Halo 2. Not much difference.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/7/2009 12:24:27 PM | message detail

From: Wii_TuRtLe | #436
When I'm sure of something, I'm right more often than not.


I wonder how many times you've been sure of something. I'd say every time.
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*is Dranze*
BGE2 - Today: SMG > CoD4 - Points: 86/112 Vote: SMG
ffmasterjose | Posted 5/7/2009 12:25:08 PM | message detail
Pokemon = huge day vote draw. Too bad MGS1 has to deal with Pokemon for another round. But after that it's smooth sailing...I hope >_>
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92/120 points - The Best. Game. Ever 2009 Contest
NP: Metal Gear Solid 4 > BioShock | http://thengamer.com/guru/bracket.php?id=4
transience | Posted 5/7/2009 12:25:12 PM | message detail
yeah, this looks over. Portal should win by about a thousand votes.
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yzzyx
transience | Posted 5/7/2009 12:25:54 PM | message detail
also, I think MGS4 would have different trends than the earlier ones thanks to the whole PS3 thing.
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yzzyx
HaRRicH | Posted 5/7/2009 12:27:51 PM | message detail
FO3 will be interesting tomorrow. Its main competition in the GotY-polls was MGS4 due to sharing the PS3, and I think it's safe to say MGS4 got the overwhelming majority of that fanbase. Now that it's going against three major 360-games with no PS3-competition in sight, tomorrow might have something funny happen...and I don't know how good or bad that is for FO3 yet. I figure the 360 means more to FO3 than the PS3 so a bigger demographic of FO3's fanbase should be in question, but it's shown it can dominate a multi-GotY poll before though and these games are 360-exclusives outside of L4D on the PC...and none of them are on MGS4's level.

It probably won't amount to much weirdness and I don't know how we would try to measure it anyway, but it intrigues me.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/7/2009 12:28:46 PM | message detail
Both MGS1 and 3 lost a little over a percentage point from their nighttime peaks. It looks like MGS4 will fare a bit better, but that's not puzzling given its competition. Replace Bioshock with Pokemon, and it would be bleeding right now.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/7/2009 12:31:15 PM | message detail

From: transience | #455
also, I think MGS4 would have different trends than the earlier ones thanks to the whole PS3 thing.


It could. This match doesn't bode well for it, but my first theory was that it would be even more night-centric because I thought the PS3 as a whole would be a night-centric console.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
HaRRicH | Posted 5/7/2009 12:48:08 PM | message detail
So...MGS4 versus SMG, who ya got? It's worth mentioning SMG beat D/P worse than MGS beat G/S.
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
R0YKEANO | Posted 5/7/2009 12:49:51 PM | message detail

From: PartOfYourWorld | #458
because I thought the PS3 as a whole would be a night-centric console.


what
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60% of the time he's awesome every time.
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/7/2009 12:54:33 PM | message detail
This was a trium- no, no. Too obvious.

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/7/2009 12:57:28 PM | message detail
1v1 in a contest sitting, I take Galaxy. We've only seen two examples, but I get the feeling that new Nintendo can get really crippled by fanbase splits, and Galaxy had a big one yesterday.

From: R0YKEANO | #460
what


The ownership percentage is still comparatively small, it's the most expensive console out there, and it's not really marketed toward youngsters. I just figured it would be more popular at night, although it looks like I might be wrong (not like we have any other examples to look at apart from the Nathans' contest trends, though).
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/7/2009 12:57:58 PM | message detail
contest *setting, har har
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/7/2009 12:59:00 PM | message detail
From: KamikazePotato
This was a trium- no, no. Too obvious.

I know it looks like MGS4 is winning, but the poll is a lie.
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*Grin*
HaRRicH | Posted 5/7/2009 12:59:05 PM | message detail
I would suspect the PS3 to be night-heavy too. Doesn't it do pretty well at night compared to the day in the "Got PS3?" polls and such?
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Prototype
Shorthand, do you speak it?!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/7/2009 1:05:01 PM | message detail
MGS4 > Galaxy
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/7/2009 1:08:53 PM | message detail
Yeah, looks like this is going to be another massive stall fest. Portal's got this one.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/7/2009 1:35:19 PM | message detail
From: LeonhartFour
Yeah, looks like this is going to be another massive stall fest. Portal's got this one.

Stall!?

PAH! Portal has gained 2 votes in the 4 hours and 10 minutes.
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Nonsense I say!
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/7/2009 2:13:38 PM | message detail
I'd say overall this is an underperformance for MGS4. I expected 45-48%
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shadow8021 | Posted 5/7/2009 2:13:41 PM | message detail
Eww is this poll even gonna break 100k?
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Becoming One
lightsout06 | Posted 5/7/2009 2:19:57 PM | message detail
This match is horrible. Tomorrow should be a good one tho. i got Fallout 3 > Halo 3. i think halo is barely beat Mass Effect
transients | Posted 5/7/2009 2:20:19 PM | message detail
this is tougher competition than Brawl had (albeit not by much) and MGS4's got a similar percentage. it's pretty much an expected result.
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xyzzy
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/7/2009 2:25:34 PM | message detail
What a boring match. Good to see Portal advancing though. I didn't really care for Bioshock.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/7/2009 2:32:08 PM | message detail
this is tougher competition than Brawl had (albeit not by much) and MGS4's got a similar percentage. it's pretty much an expected result.

I don't know if I'd call 5% less similar.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/7/2009 2:44:51 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-32.jpg
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/7/2009 2:46:02 PM | message detail
That pic looks cluttered as hell.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 5/7/2009 2:49:46 PM | message detail
Is this competition really better than Brawl's? GTAIV shouldn't have any trouble with Portal, and P4 would beat SFF'd LBP just fine. SFIV likely loses to Bioshock, but that doesn't compensate completely for the other two games.
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
transients | Posted 5/7/2009 2:51:15 PM | message detail
Portal = GTA4
Bioshock > SF4
LBP >= Persona 4

yeah, I'd take this pack.
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xyzzy
Mac Arrowny | Posted 5/7/2009 2:53:16 PM | message detail
Normal LBP beats P4, perhaps, but SFF'd LBP doesn't stand a chance. And GTAIV would crush Portal.
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All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
MnMZero | Posted 5/7/2009 3:01:51 PM | message detail
FO3 will be interesting tomorrow. Its main competition in the GotY-polls was MGS4 due to sharing the PS3, and I think it's safe to say MGS4 got the overwhelming majority of that fanbase. Now that it's going against three major 360-games with no PS3-competition in sight, tomorrow might have something funny happen...and I don't know how good or bad that is for FO3 yet.

If CoD4 can easily beat Halo, I don't see why Fallout 3 couldn't. Not the same genre I know, but it draws from the same systems. I think Halo definitely gets hurt more by the other games in the poll than Fallout.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/7/2009 3:01:59 PM | message detail
Hmmmm, he picked the "me experimenting then realizing how bad it was" pic I did for Mass Effect.

Sigh.

I like my Fallout 3, though.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/7/2009 3:03:28 PM | message detail
Actually, that's ironic. I submitted the box art so that he wouldn't pick my other Mass Effect pic, and he ignored it.

The one time I want him to use the freaking box art... Oh, well.
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ZFS | Posted 5/7/2009 3:04:41 PM | message detail
What a fitting picture for this match!

round 2 plz

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a metal slime appears
LordOfDabu | Posted 5/7/2009 3:04:50 PM | message detail
When did it start showing your tiebreaker under "Check your entry"? I just noticed that.
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Better to ask than to speculate
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/7/2009 3:08:15 PM | message detail
Wasn't there a petition recently for Bacon to add that? I didn't notice it was changed.

As for tomorrow, either Halo wins it in a close one, or Fallout absolutely embarrasses Halo. I can't see it being a middle ground.
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-LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/7/2009 3:11:55 PM | message detail
When did it start showing your tiebreaker under "Check your entry"? I just noticed that.

I think that was added today. I remember checking my score shortly after today's match started and the tiebreaker wasn't there.



Oh hey, it's Halo 2/World of Warcraft RELOADED! Portal's lead has stayed around 1600 for the past 6 hours.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but still not as cool as FastFalcon05, Guru Champ!
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/7/2009 3:20:17 PM | message detail
And GTAIV would crush Portal.

Based on what? I wouldn't take GTA IV to crush BioShock OR Portal with any confidence. I'd take GTA IV > BioShock, but I wouldn't take it over Portal with any sense of confidence.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/7/2009 3:35:33 PM | message detail
Hey guys, how long has the "MY brakcet page told us our tiebreakers". Because I don't think it did before some point today.

Nice addition.
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Good stuffs by SBAllen.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/7/2009 3:36:01 PM | message detail
Looking forward to next round...Anyone think Mario 3 can destroy its match enough for Sonic 1 to still beat SFII anyway? I'm kinda considering it.
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/7/2009 3:38:23 PM | message detail
From: LeonhartFour
Looking forward to next round...Anyone think Mario 3 can destroy its match enough for Sonic 1 to still beat SFII anyway? I'm kinda considering it.

I can seriously see SMB3 getting over 55% again. More if it SFF obliterates Sonic.
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It's going to be scary impressive.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/7/2009 3:42:09 PM | message detail
I can see Mario 3 getting upwards of 60% honestly. It's stronger than Zelda 1 already, and while Mario 3's fourpack IS better, Sonic 1's gonna get hurt and Monkey Island's gonna seriously only get 5% of the vote.
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WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/7/2009 3:43:43 PM | message detail
Mario 3 is gonna SFF Sonic 1 while Sonic 1 SFFs Monkey Island
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/7/2009 3:57:44 PM | message detail
Whoa!

Neat new tool creative!

Latest X-Stats
Name Value
Metal Gear Solid 4 50.00%
Portal 36.84%
BioShock 35.10%
LittleBigPlanet 20.91%
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^_^
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/7/2009 3:57:51 PM | message detail
Whoa, creative's updater now does auto-stats with the updates! Nice addition!
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creativename | Posted 5/7/2009 3:58:00 PM | message detail
Made another little tweak - on poll updates, x-stats based on the most recent update are automatically calculated.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/7/2009 3:58:04 PM | message detail
Man, 7 seconds.
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creativename | Posted 5/7/2009 3:58:38 PM | message detail
Wow you guys noticed that fast!
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/7/2009 3:59:20 PM | message detail
From: creativename
Wow you guys noticed that fast!

Yes we did. Also, we have Tiebreakers now.
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Good day.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 5/7/2009 3:59:51 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/images/bge09/bge09-32.jpg

L4D looks cool, I guess. That's a pretty washed out Chief picture, but other than that, meh all around.
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I, like clockwork, have been humiliated by hochiminh
Hochiminh is better than me. I was a numbskull for thinking I could defy Him.
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/7/2009 4:00:01 PM | message detail
Well, I keep the updater on a secondary tab all day, so I occasionally check updates!
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