GameFAQs Contests

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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 706

Meeks54 | Posted 5/6/2009 10:19:16 AM | message detail
Nintendo ALWAYS WINS



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

~*Character Contest Histories (Thanks to Raven 2 for the info transfer)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the match pics*~
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Some Common Stat Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote, because the Zelda fanbase so clearly sided with him. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make total sense. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

X-Stats - Short form of Extrapolated Statistics, aka the mathematical "strength" of a contestant that can be determined based on their performance in any given matchup. See above for a detailed explanation of the x-stat process.

LFF (Leech Fanbase Factor) - A common issue in four-way polls, where two entrants of the same fanbase leech one another's strength and make each other weaker. This is the main factor currently discussed in stat topics, since four-ways look like they're here to stay. The earliest example we have of this is Arthas/Diablo leeching each other half to death and letting KOS-MOS sneak into second place back in 2007. SFF still happens now and again, but LFF is just as huge these days.

Last Place Factor - A huge issue in four-way contests where an entrant having no expected chance to advance in the poll does far worse than past strength dictates. A lot of these entrants are naturally weak, but a lot of things come along that make little to no sense. A great example is Zero -- he scored 47% on Crono and won several updates, then one round later he gets disproportionally blown out once Link enters the picture. This factor also works in reverse, when an obvious first place game does worse than expected thanks to smart voters helping a game come in second place. The final of 2008 is a good example of this, where Snake stayed even with Link until the day vote and ultimately defeated Cloud. (Credit to red sox 777 and Leonhart4 for the examples)

For other information, surf the contest sites a bit. They have everything.
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Gunner is, what is the word... passionate. but i think that MichaelWClark dude is far crazier than anything Gunner has posted. Posted by Mark Milton
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/6/2009 1:00:22 PM | message detail
Tagalicious.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/6/2009 3:27:26 PM | message detail
Can't believe we're doing this withouty Portal quotes in the topic title. That makes me so UNBELIEVABLY sad.
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:(
transients | Posted 5/6/2009 3:37:02 PM | message detail
Portal quotes are so overdone. All Your Base is fresher at this point.

Portal the game is good stuff though.
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xyzzy
SonicRaptor | Posted 5/6/2009 7:21:46 PM | message detail
I still think it'll be SSBB > Galaxy next round, Galaxy won't have Pokemon sapping votes away come Round 2.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/6/2009 7:22:22 PM | message detail
From: SonicRaptor
I still think it'll be SSBB > Galaxy next round, Galaxy won't have Pokemon sapping votes away come Round 2.

No, it'll have SSBB sapping votes away.
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o.O
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/6/2009 7:22:45 PM | message detail
You're right, it only has the much weaker SSBB sapping votes

...oh wait
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/6/2009 7:26:20 PM | message detail
Match XXXI: Bioshock vs. LittleBigPlanet vs. Metal Gear Solid 4 vs. Portal

Information:

Name: Bioshock
Year: 2007
System: PC, PS3, Xbox 360
GotY Performance: 4th in Best Multi-Platform Game

Name: LittleBigPlanet
Year: 2008
System: PS3
GotY Performance: 2nd in Best PS3 Game, 1st in Best New Original Title

Name: Metal Gear Solid 4
Year: 2008
System: PS3
GotY Performance: 1st in Best PS3 Game, 1st in Game of the Year, 2nd in Game of the Year (Final), 2nd in Game of the Year (Final, Final)

Name: Portal
Year: 2007
System: PC
GotY Performance: 3rd in Best Multi-Platform Game (as The Orange Box)

Analysis

It’s taken a couple of matches, but this is the first time 2007 and 2008 games have mingled. It is now time to find which the superior year for gaming was. Of course this match is a bit unfair with one of the most popular games of 2008 going up against two solid games from 2007. Still it should give us some insight to how the rest of the division will play out.

Metal Gear Solid 4 shouldn’t have a problem destroying this four-pack. The Playstation 3 may not be the most popular system on GameFAQs, but the only game with any strength in this four-pack was released on the same system. With 2008 GotY still fresh in its mind Metal Gear Solid 4 is going to attempt to take the division over Brawl. All that’s needed is a similar performance in this match.

The favourite for second is Portal. I guess after the performance of Weighted Companion Cube and to a lesser extent GlaDOS it’s to be expected. It’s been a few months since the previous character battle and for the fad to settle down. Like Phoenix Wright Still Alive fans are beginning to fade and if the contest was held last year during the height of the fad Portal probably would have come in second (just imagine that MGS4 and LBP was released). Portal should be stronger than Phoenix Wright, but that’s thanks to The Orange Box, though getting fans to know a cool game is great by my books.

For whatever reason people seem to ignore Bioshock’s potential in this match. Big Daddy had a fine performance where many thought he would flop and Bioshock is well liked on GameFAQs. While it won’t have much overall strength this pack is really weak barring Metal Gear Solid 4. Also with WRPGs like Oblivion doing so well it would be a shock to see Bioshock lose by a large amount.

Every year there’s always a pick in my bracket that makes even I do a double take, in this case I have LittleBigPlanet in second. For a while I was wondering why I took that game, then I remembered; it’s because Portal and Bioshock are weak. LittleBigPlanet was crushed in the GotY poll by MGS4 and while it has the worst opponent it can still win. I believe that the GotY poll was incorrect at displaying LittleBigPlanet’s strength against Metal Gear Solid 4. Many people voting in that poll probably never even owned a Playstation 3 and it’s more likely that they would’ve franchise vote Metal Gear Solid 4. Also since the GotY LittleBigPlanet has been gaining steam and more fans are starting to buy the game, whether that will translate to an increase in strength is yet to see.

Betting on a SFF game is risky, though as I’ve said before I don’t have much faith in the other games. The only thing that I’m worrying about is the Playstation 3 ownership rate being low giving Metal Gear Solid 4 and LittleBigPlanet less to work with. Still we’ve seen sales not mattering in the past so why should it be any different with this match.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Metal Gear Solid 4 > LittleBigPlanet

charmander6000’s Prediction: Metal Gear Solid 4 – 46.48%, LittleBigPlanet – 19.17%, Bioshock – 17.63%, Portal – 16.72%

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMG > CoD4 Points: 85/116
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/6/2009 7:26:50 PM | message detail
Forget Portal quotes!

"I'm no hero, never was, never will be...I'm just an old killer, hired to do some wetwork."

"Brother! It's not over! Not yet! This is the liberty we've won for ourselves!"
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
creativename | Posted 5/6/2009 7:32:37 PM | message detail
Made a new X-Stats toy:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/54

It's a linear X-Stat calculator. You can enter poll results, or copy&paste poll results directly from Internet Explorer, and it'll spit out strength values relative to the strongest game (whose own value you can input).
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gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
charmander6000 | Posted 5/6/2009 7:32:43 PM | message detail
*reads analysis crew*

Damn it HM MGS4 > LBP was suppose to be my upset.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMG > CoD4 Points: 85/116
creativename | Posted 5/6/2009 7:33:56 PM | message detail
Also the line parsing is a bit robust so if you paste extra junk it should be OK.
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gamefaqscontests.com
gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/6/2009 7:34:59 PM | message detail
For the record, a semi-annoying guy making a stats topic but posting in it a lot is better than someone making these and never posting in them at all. a la whoever the hell paulg is.

I am HAPPY to stamp and tag this bad boy, GO PORTAL.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/6/2009 7:36:16 PM | message detail
Aww yeah, Portal is going to tear this **** up.
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:D
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/6/2009 7:37:43 PM | message detail
I'm projecting mid 20s for Portal. I'll be surprised if it gets lower then that.
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http://www.xboxlc.com/cards/blue2/Albion%20Hero.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v410/RyanSaotome/threesome.gif
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/6/2009 7:37:57 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | Posted: 5/6/2009 10:32:43 PM | #011
*reads analysis crew*

Damn it HM MGS4 > LBP was suppose to be my upset.


I know you hate account bets, but how about a one line sig bet?
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
charmander6000 | Posted 5/6/2009 7:39:12 PM | message detail
For the record, a semi-annoying guy making a stats topic but posting in it a lot is better than someone making these and never posting in them at all. a la whoever the hell paulg is.

paulg was posting for a while about 30 or 40 topics ago, he was posting more often then you in a few topics, but now he seems to have disappeared. I'm sure he still reads the topic.
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMG > CoD4 Points: 85/116
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/6/2009 7:40:54 PM | message detail
Hell charmander, I'll sig bet you that Portal places AND LBP comes 4th while you just need LBP to place.
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And I STILL feel like the bet is unfair.
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/6/2009 7:41:33 PM | message detail
Tagalicious.
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
transients | Posted 5/6/2009 7:41:47 PM | message detail
I hope Portal bombs just to see the reaction
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 5/6/2009 7:42:05 PM | message detail
tag

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http://thengamer.com/guru/
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/6/2009 7:42:05 PM | message detail
All this Portal confidence is a failure flag. I know how this works!

Damn you all and your confidence
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/6/2009 7:43:23 PM | message detail
I'm not nearly as confident as I look. I just *really* want to see it do well, if only for how good The Orange Box has been for gaming. Gaming really, really, REALLY, REALLY needs more value deals.
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
charmander6000 | Posted 5/6/2009 7:44:08 PM | message detail
I know you hate account bets, but how about a one line sig bet?

No, that's fine. Betting on an unpredictable SFF match is just begging to shoot myself in the foot. Last time that worked was back in Alucard > Captain Falcon.

Besides I like my sig. >_>
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMG > CoD4 Points: 85/116
charmander6000 | Posted 5/6/2009 7:46:05 PM | message detail
How about I give everyone in this topic a free right to make fun of me if Portal comes in second?
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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMG > CoD4 Points: 85/116
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/6/2009 7:46:27 PM | message detail
I think we were planning on doing that already! This is Persona 4 all over again!
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http://www.court-records.net/animation/phoenix-superobjection.gif
The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/6/2009 7:47:50 PM | message detail
I underestimated Portal's matches in the 2008 contest by an average of 7%. I can't be surprised anymore.

Unless I overestimate by 7% this time!
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
Master Moltar | Posted 5/6/2009 7:48:19 PM | message detail
Division 8: Round 1 - Match 31 – Bioshock vs. LittleBigPlanet vs. Metal Gear Solid 4 vs. Portal

Moltar’s Analysis

Bioshock
2004 Results: N/A

Would you kindly vote for Bioshock?

LBP
2004 Results: N/A

Sucks to be stuck with MGS4 again, doesn’t it?

MGS4
2004 Results: N/A

Game of the Forever 2: Now with more cutscenes and crazy plot developments

Portal
2004 Results: N/A

It has a great shot of advancing here, and that is not a lie

Ugh, Galaxy just really let me down today. Yeah Pokemon is hurting it, but I expected so much more.

Therefore, it’s time for redemption here. Game of the Forever may have disappointed, but Game of the Forever 2, MGS4, still can shine! It should have an easy time making quick work of this fourpack, as there aren’t any CoD4-level games to make it look bad.

The other three games are in contention for second. First up is Bioshock, which hasn’t really looked too great on GameFAQs. It did okay in the 2007 GotY poll, but it also lost to the Orange Box, which contains Portal. Big Daddy did decently in his match in 2008, but that was in a pack with Gordon, Scorpion and Balthier. Plus Gordon also beat out Big Daddy there. That’s about it in terms of past polls. Since then, it’s hard to say how Bioshock has fared. I guess it has faded out of the public eye compared to the others.

Next up is LittleBigPlanet. Sackboy made the contest before the game even came out, and failed to draw 10%. I mean Snake was in the poll but hey. Now LBP finds itself stuck with MGS again, and once again it won’t be pretty. Seriously who books this stuff?

Last time we saw MGS4 vs. LBP was 5 months ago in the 2008 GotY poll. MGS4 put up 71.7% on LBP. I don’t think it’s going to do that well this time around. Last time, it could be seen as the only non-MGS4 option. This time we’ve got two other decent games in there. MGS4 should be fine as well, as we’ve seen it hold up against other strong games like Fallout 3 and Brawl. Plus, I don’t think LBP is as strong as it was 5 months ago. I’ve seen a lot of people say that LBP’s charm has worn off, and while it was a great concept, it just doesn’t do much for them anymore. That could hurt it when people are still giving high praise to the other games in the poll today.

Lastly is my pick for second, Portal. It’s the most independent game here, and there are a lot of signs pointing to it having more strength than the other two games it’s competing with. Cube and GlaDOS both did well in the contest and Orange Box is big on GameFAQs. You can point at TF2, but it’s obvious that TF2 isn’t as strong just from looking at how its characters did compared to Gordon or the Portal characters.

I’m thinking Portal is going to pull in at least 20% here, so I don’t see it losing due to flopping. Bioshock or LBP are going to have to be straight up stronger, because the Portal fans are definitely loyal to the game.


Moltar’s Bracket Says: MGS 4 > Portal

Moltar’s Prediction is: MGS4: 44% - Portal: 24% - Bioshock: 20% - LBP: 12%



Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Here's an interesting match.

You've got one game that's going to dominate in MGS4 and three other games who all have plenty of reason to nab second. This was always one of the harder round 1 matches to predict, if only because you can't be confident in any one of them. With LBP, it's got MGS4 is in the poll taking up the PS3 votes; with BioShock/Portal, it's MGS4 and the fact they're both FPS games that would appeal to the same kinds of people (neither one are anything like your Halos or Call of Dutys).
charmander6000 | Posted 5/6/2009 7:48:22 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Master Moltar | Posted 5/6/2009 7:48:34 PM | message detail
I chose Portal in my bracket, but I think I'm going to throw my Crew support behind LBP. For whatever reason, there's this expectation now that LBP is going to be fodder, somehow down there with the Persona 4s of the world. Needless to say, I think it's getting grossly underestimated -- this is a game that would destroy Persona 4 and Street Fighter IV. Some people bring up its 'disappointing sales,' but I've never seen it that way. It didn't live up to be the huge casual hit Sony expected it to be, but it still sold 700,000 copies in the States, and over 2 million worldwide. It's not an unknown game.

Maybe one of the biggest advantages LBP has coming into this one is being a standout amongst a bunch of shooters. MGS4, BioShock, and Portal aren't your typical 'shooter' kinda games, but they're more similar with each other than anything else. This should help LBP a good bit -- you've got a Big Daddy, Old Snake, the Portal icon, and then Sackboy with a bright colorful background. Can't hurt, at least.

But with Portal it's got the whole CAKE and Weighted Companion Cube fad behind it, on top of it being a legitimately loved game. I chose it in my bracket for a reason, so I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if it managed to win here. Same with BioShock, although I think if there's any game that has a greater chance of coming in last than it does placing, BioShock is it.

We'll see how this goes. MGS4 should wreck this poll, so it's a fight for low 20s. I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the three advance today.

Metal Gear Solid 4 -- 42%
LittleBigPlanet -- 21%
Portal -- 19%
BioShock -- 18%

Bracket: Metal Gear Solid 4 > Portal
Favorites: Metal Gear Solid 4 > LittleBigPlanet (LBP gets the votez)



Lopen’s Analysis

Well man, I hate to use character battle stuff in these, but as it turns out with these games, I kinda have to due to no data or intuition existing. Way I see it... we've got Solid Snake vs The Big Daddy vs GlaDOS vs Sackboy. Now, you might say “that's not fair cause Sackboy's game wasn't even out” but uhhh you know what it doesn't really matter. I'll ignore that... let's just take GlaDOS vs Big Daddy. GlaDOS despite being this... unrecognizable machine... still does really well for herself (well, relatively). Big Daddy, being the face of Bioshock, not so much. Now, of course, I'm sure GlaDOS is way more awesome and stuff, but since when does GameFAQs care about awesome characters?

As for Sackboy let's just make some jokes in poor taste. Awesome, right? Okay, you all made them to yourself, let's continue. Not even the QB Sack vote will be worth anything on this anti-football site. Uhh, yeah... sorry, being PS3 exclusive with the PS3 title means I have zero faith in you to do anything.

I don't think MGS4 is going to be that strong being on the PS3, but luckily it just got a really easy path to swath through the bracket.

Lopen's prediction
Solid Snake – 39.61%
GlaDOS – 25.12%
Big Daddy – 24.12%
Sackboy – 11.15%



Transience’s Analysis

Nice bomb by Mario Galaxy. It ended up closer to Pokemon than to COD4. This result actually makes a bit of sense, but you needed to see it in order to make a serious argument. Now we've got the chance of COD4 taking first next round thanks to Nintendo overlap, and then Brawl and MGS4 squaring off for first place in round 3 yet again. Pretty cool little rivalry there.

Anyway, I don't like this match. There's just no way to get a good handle on these games. Three new IPs, three games with decent fanbases behind them. MGS4 should go big here just because of brand name loyalty against three things without anything of the sort.
XxSoulxX | Posted 5/6/2009 7:48:59 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
UltimaterializerX | Posted 5/6/2009 7:49:22 PM | message detail
ibnintendogirl
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`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.·´¯`·.,¸¸,.·´`·.,¸¸,.·´
"You are the king of derailing topics, by the way." -Lucid
Master Moltar | Posted 5/6/2009 7:49:28 PM | message detail
A lot of people have written LBP off here. I don't feel the same way. LBP's a charming game that has really been big for many PS3 owners. The counterargument is that MGS4 is the ultimate PS3 game and that'll crush LBP's chances, but I don't see it that way. We need to stop thinking of the PS3 as a distant third - people can enjoy more than one game for the system. LBP and MGS4 are so far apart in terms of style, presentation, everything. Plus, LBP is a big multiplayer game so you don't need a PS3 in order to know it. It's like using Gamecube ownership rates against Melee or something.

That said, I'm skeptical on LBP just because of the genre: platformer. It's a bigger deal than your average non-Nintendo platformer, but it's still a second-tier game. I think Portal and Bioshock have better arguments for second place.

If you go by numbers and previous polls, Bioshock gets the edge. Big Daddy was about equal to Glados in the previous contest, and I'd wager that Glados has far more support from the Portal fanbase than Big Daddy does from the Bioshock one. (the counterargument here is that Glados is a dimembodied voice, but I don't think that matters that much. there are people who haven't played Portal that voted Glados, after all.) In the 2007 GOTY (already shown to be sketchy because of today's performance, but hey), Bioshock went about equal to the entire Orange Box - Half-Life, TF2, Half-Life 2, Portal. That suggests that Bioshock is a bigger deal.

And yet I'm going with Portal. I expect that rabid, unique fanbase to thrive here. I think Portal and the Orange Box have gotten bigger and bigger over time. I'm skeptical of what is almost a mini-game in Portal standing up to big-name titles, but I'll support it here.

transience's prediction:

Metal Gear Solid 4 - 45%
Portal - 23%
Bioshock - 18%
LittleBigPlanet - 14%



Leon’s Analysis

BioShock: Okay, now you’re getting into games that I’m not really familiar with at all and so I have no idea what to expect from them. I can really only go off GOTY stuff here, so I’m probably going to be way off! BioShock did pretty well in 2007, losing to CoD4, but almost beating the Orange Box, of which Portal is a part. All of those votes weren’t the result of Portal for sure, so that seems to be an advantage in BioShock’s favor. Big Daddy did well in last year’s Character Battle, staying close to Balthier and not even really that far from Gordon and Scorpion. However, the Cube and arguably GlaDOS did better than that, but it’s a pretty good performance.

LittleBigPlanet: Yeah, LittleBigPlanet got the worst possible opponent it could’ve gotten. I’d consider it advancing in this match if one of the opponents wasn’t MGS4. Look at the poll LBP is involved in that has MGS4 and the one that doesn’t. Big difference, though it still owned every other PS3 game. Sure, it wasn’t facing any games that would probably be strong on GameFAQs, but 31% is still a lot, more than doubling 2nd place. LBP won’t get destroyed, I don’t think, but I can’t see it nabbing second place here.

Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots: It’ll be interesting to see what MGS4 can do here. None of these games have any business getting anywhere close to it, so it should dominate. It’s also the only game from a major franchise in this match, which can only help in a match that probably has low playership for these games compared to most matches. It’s obvious MGS4 is going to win, but how much will it get?

Portal: I’m not sure what to expect from Portal. It seems like a lot of people like it to advance here, but I picked MGS4 > BioShock without thinking. Again, this is a situation where I’m not familiar with many of the games in this division, and there’s not much data to go on. I already talked about the GlaDOS/Cube vs. Big Daddy comparisons, so there’s not much else to say about this one.
Master Moltar | Posted 5/6/2009 7:49:51 PM | message detail
Leonhart’s Vote: SOP compels me to vote for GUNS of the Patriots!

Leonhart’s Prediction:

BioShock – 20.55%
LittleBigPlanet – 16.28%
Metal Gear Solid 4 – 44.44%
Portal – 18.73%



Ed Bellis’s Analysis

well that didn’t quite pan out MOVING ON THEN

Today’s big thing is seeing how Metal Gear Solid 4, the GAME OF FOREVER, will do en route to its seemingly inevitable showdown with Brawl – and beyond?!? Estimates for this pack will likely range from low 30s to high 50s, maybe even higher (hi there HM).

The real debate here is between Bioshock and Portal. LittleBigPlanet shouldn’t really amount to much (though the last time I said that was in reference to KOTOR, and uhhh whoops MOVING ON). Portal is the Guru favorite, and with good reasons: almost universally loved, meme, cake, etc. I expect it to do better than Bioshock and get second.

That said, expect MGS4 to dominate this poll. These other games probably aren’t worth much.

Prediction: lol nanomachines lol
BioShock with 15.11%
LittleBigPlanet with 9.15%
Metal Gear Solid 4 with 55.55%
Portal with 20.19%



Guest’s Analysis - nintendogirl1

Hello? Who's there? There you are.

First off, a lot of people say there are 4 games in this poll. Like hell there are. There are 2 games, 1 game maker and 1 interactive video. Not having a PS3, clearly I know with 100% accuracy that LittleBigPlanet sucks balls.

Neither one of us knows what that thing does. Just put it in the corner, and I'll deal with it later. That thing is probably some kind of raw sewage container. The closest it comes to a good game is when it’s put on a shelf next to Fallout 3. That is all I'm saying about it.

The other non-game in this match-up is MGS4, which is really an interactive video. Lots of people tell me it’s a really good interactive video though, so I hope they enjoy it. It also embodies the PS3 even more then a coffin and a bag of nails do. Congratulations. Was it worth it? Because despite your violent behavior, the only thing you've managed to break so far is third place. Maybe you could settle for that, and we'll just call it a day.

Following these two PS3 exclusive attempts at making games and failing we have BioShock, an AWESOME Western RPG that does everything right. We’ve already seen western RPGs do well with KotOR shining and Oblivion winning a match most people didn’t have it placing in. BioShock looks set to do really well, especially when you consider that one its main character’s veins are bees. No really. Let me state that again for the record.

His veins are bees.

Oh well. If you want my advice, you should just lie down
in front of a rocket. Trust me. It will be a lot less painful than the voters. Alright. Keep doing whatever it is you think you're doing.
Master Moltar | Posted 5/6/2009 7:50:31 PM | message detail
Finally you have the best game in this division, hands down. Described as a “quirky, ingenuitive puzzler that has taken the world by storm,” by none other then me about 10 seconds ago, Portal is going to rock MGS4 hard. Had it not been for WRPGs looking awesome guaranteeing BioShock a nice chunk of the poll, I wouldn’t have gone for this, but it could lower MGS4 into Portal’s hands. It probably won’t but I’ll be damned if I’m going to count it out. If GlaDOS can get 30% on Vincent Valentine depite not being named in the game and with the most unrecognisable pic in the history of these contests (even counting some of what Kefka’s AUGHs have looked like), you can bet there’s a really strong fanbase behind Portal. Half Life 2’s excellent showing says good things as well. The Orange Box is hailed as the best gaming collection to have ever graced the world, especially at whatever low price those wacky retailers are selling it for now. Congratulations. The test is now over. Rest assured that there is absolutely no chance of a dangerous equipment malfunction prior to your victory candescence.

A lot of people will laugh at me and point at the GoTY poll, where I’m just going to say that what you saw there was the PS3 fanbase and the anti-Nintendo fanbase failing to break 50% on Brawl. With LBP taking a crucial portion of the PS3 fanbase, anything could and will happen.

Percentages yadda yadda, something like this:

LBP: 12.89%
Unbelievable! You, {SUBJECT GAME HERE}, must be the pride of {SUBJECT DEVELOPER HERE}

MetalGearSolid 4: 29.83%
Your contest is nearing its conclusion. The Enrichment Center is required to remind you that you will be baked, and then there will be Fallout 3.

BioShock: 24.22%
As part of a previously mentioned required poll protocol, we can no longer lie to you. When the testing is over, you will be... missed.

Portal: 33.06%
"You euthanised your faithful companion games more quickly than any test subject on record. Congratulations."

Result: Portal > MGS4
Vote: Portal





Crew Consensus: MGS4 > Portal is the Crew favorite, and we’ve also got MGS4 > LBP, MGS4 > Bioshock, and Portal > MGS4 (what)
charmander6000 | Posted 5/6/2009 7:50:58 PM | message detail
Sorry Moltar

Except I won't be all, "lol just kidding, I knew Portal was going to come in second I just wanted to argue for my favourite game"

Those were good times.

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Board 8 BOP: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/BGE2%20BOP.xls
BGE2 - Today's Match: SMG > CoD4 Points: 85/116
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/6/2009 7:51:34 PM | message detail
From: charmander6000
Except I won't be all, "lol just kidding, I knew Portal was going to come in second I just wanted to argue for my favourite game"

I might.
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:D
ZFS | Posted 5/6/2009 7:52:00 PM | message detail
sackboy domination CAKE no chance

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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/6/2009 7:52:32 PM | message detail
Sackboy more like CAKEboy
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/6/2009 7:53:37 PM | message detail
yess Nintendo Girl
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ZFS | Posted 5/6/2009 7:53:55 PM | message detail
http://ve3dmedia.ign.com/images/02/74/27495_normal.jpg

behold

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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/6/2009 7:54:45 PM | message detail
I'm not nearly as confident as I look. I just *really* want to see it do well, if only for how good The Orange Box has been for gaming. Gaming really, really, REALLY, REALLY needs more value deals.

I thought you just bought this the other day. Have you played any of the games yet?

And nintendogirl, you win the A+ gold star shiny nickel award for best crew write-up ever!
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ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'. - Topaz Kitsune
Believe it or not, the Internet is serious business - Biolizard28
nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/6/2009 7:55:03 PM | message detail
From: MyWorldIsCrono
yess Nintendo Girl

It's all about the fangirlism. Everyone was laughing when I said RBY was going to win R1 and R2 as well before the contest. Not laughing about that one any more are you?

I know.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/6/2009 7:55:36 PM | message detail
Yeah if Sackboy is the first thing that comes to mind when thinking of LBP, my faith in it advancing just decreased from 5% to lower than 5%.

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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/6/2009 7:55:44 PM | message detail
Hey, not everyone! I think we're the only two RBY > MGS backers here.
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ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'. - Topaz Kitsune
Believe it or not, the Internet is serious business - Biolizard28
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/6/2009 7:55:52 PM | message detail
How about I give everyone in this topic a free right to make fun of me if Portal comes in second?

We were planning to do that anyway!
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"Here I go! Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/6/2009 7:56:35 PM | message detail
Not laughing about that one any more are you?

I can still laugh about 50% of it for another week or two!
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 5/6/2009 7:56:38 PM | message detail
From: XxSoulxX
And nintendogirl, you win the A+ gold star shiny nickel award for best crew write-up ever!

Thank you for recognising this fact. I did have a revised one with Portal > Bioshock that I sent Moltar, but I didn't think you guys would be able it, so awesome was the writeup and rationale.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 5/6/2009 7:57:24 PM | message detail
I've been backing RBY>FF8 since Day 1, yo. Not sure if that's the same as MGS, but it's close enough!

Also, ngirl, I notice you managed to make the writeup without mentioning the cake. Considering the internet has beaten the cake into a fine chocolaty mess, I applaud you for this.

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ZFS | Posted 5/6/2009 7:58:19 PM | message detail
Who else hopes for Portal to crash and burn without having played I know I do

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