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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 705

MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/6/2009 1:34:48 PM | message detail
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=21319

This says Orange Box is at 3 million.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/6/2009 1:35:56 PM | message detail

From: charmander6000 | #400
Bioshock has more sales then that (About 2.5 million on PS3/360, not counting PC sales), and Orange box is a bit over 1 million on 360/PS3, but I'd expect another 1 million at least on PC since thats where it seems most people play the Valve games. They should all be about even for sales.

I'm just saying that LBP's sales have almost double since Jan. So why are we expecting it to be as weak as it was back then?


Oh, I thought you were trying to use a sales arguement that it would do better. Regardless, I still see the majority of the PS3 fanbase just going for MGS4, its really the must have of the system. I think LBP might get 15%, but thats not enough to challenge for second.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/6/2009 1:46:15 PM | message detail
Of all those, SF2 actually impressed (weak as Sonic might be in this format, SF seems to be even weaker, so standing up to Sonic was pretty good) or did fairly well, FF6 has a 5% dro at most (at least, that's what I think. Might be bigger, though), and SF4 bombed, but we knew it was going to disappoint as we came into the poll.

Um...what?!

Sonic the Hedgehog 44.41% 49383
Street Fighter II 35.58% 39565


I can't even call THIS "standing up to Sonic". At all. Not even close. As for SF4, did you honestly expect it to actually struggle with Persona 4? I didn't.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/6/2009 1:50:55 PM | message detail
I didn't expect it to lose QUITE so badly, but the arguments in favor of Persona being stronger than we anticipated convinced me somewhat that it wasn't going to do as well as I thought, along with ToS pulling that upset. Of course, NOBODY expected GTA4 to be THAT strong and take second so easily, but I wasn't too surprised about Persona putting up a fight in the end.

As for SFII, it managed to save face, IMO, because MKII had a much better shot than it did against a Sonic game and did almost as it did. Thus, it didn't look QUITE so bad (still not too good, but in no way deserving the turd of the round after MM2 and SMG).
WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 5/6/2009 1:52:52 PM | message detail
Galaxy only bombed because it had to face Nintendo from a system worth owning, just wait until TP gets last next round.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/6/2009 1:53:31 PM | message detail
Of course, NOBODY expected GTA4 to be THAT strong and take second so easily, but I wasn't too surprised about Persona putting up a fight in the end.

GTAIV performed what GotY 2008 predicted, lol GotY predicted correct for once. That was all SFIV flopping.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/6/2009 1:56:54 PM | message detail
GTA4 hardly impressed- it did about what was expected, maybe a tad higher. That was SFIV being really weak, just like SFII utterly failed against Sonic.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/6/2009 1:58:04 PM | message detail
How many times has GotY been accurate throughout this contest? Not a snarky question, I'm genuinely interested in that. I thought they weren't trustworthy at all and thus something else must have boosted GTA4's popularity?
LeonhartFour | Posted 5/6/2009 1:58:40 PM | message detail
Watching Galaxy lose the ASV is really something.

CoD4 over 35% now.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/6/2009 1:58:59 PM | message detail
Of course, NOBODY expected GTA4 to be THAT strong and take second so easily, but I wasn't too surprised about Persona putting up a fight in the end.

Aree you serious? That was all SFIV failing it up, just like when SFII stunk up the joint against Sonic.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/6/2009 1:59:53 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #409
Watching Galaxy lose the ASV is really something.

CoD4 over 35% now.


I didn't expect it to beat CoD4 or Pokemon with the ASV. CoD4 is the same fanbase as Halo, so it should have a good ASV, and Pokemon is well, Pokemon.
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charmander6000 | Posted 5/6/2009 2:00:02 PM | message detail
How many times has GotY been accurate throughout this contest? Not a snarky question, I'm genuinely interested in that. I thought they weren't trustworthy at all and thus something else must have boosted GTA4's popularity?

I think SSBB/GTAIV is the only one, which makes Fallout 3 look like it has legit strength.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/6/2009 2:00:42 PM | message detail
Pokemon's not even really doing much of anything either, and Mario's ASV is better than THIS.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/6/2009 2:01:36 PM | message detail
Well yeah it doesn't make sense for Mario to fall like a rock but he does have good ASV competition which is my point. I'm surprised most of the bleeding isn't from TF2 tho.
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/6/2009 2:05:10 PM | message detail
"I think SSBB/GTAIV is the only one, which makes Fallout 3 look like it has legit strength."

Okay. Now, can anybody tell me how many times has going with the GotY polls made people fall flat on their faces? I have a feeling that GTA4 actually did better than it should have, and that something made it stronger than it was before. Otherwise, it's probably a pretty noticeable outlier.
charmander6000 | Posted 5/6/2009 2:10:39 PM | message detail
Okay. Now, can anybody tell me how many times has going with the GotY polls made people fall flat on their faces? I have a feeling that GTA4 actually did better than it should have, and that something made it stronger than it was before. Otherwise, it's probably a pretty noticeable outlier.

Because people want some kind of stats to justify their pick, for example read the useless debate between Portal/Bioshock a few pages ago.
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red sox 777 | Posted 5/6/2009 2:11:09 PM | message detail
Completely ignoring the GOTY poll, what makes you think GTA4 should have done worse? We had no numbers previously on that game, or on its competition.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/6/2009 2:23:58 PM | message detail
Mario Galaxy is now closer to Pokemon than CoD4, with lots of time to embaress itself even further.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/6/2009 2:26:47 PM | message detail
Wow. Just...wow.
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Mr3790 | Posted 5/6/2009 2:31:57 PM | message detail
Posting to say:

Damn CoD 4...
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/6/2009 2:38:44 PM | message detail
"Completely ignoring the GOTY poll, what makes you think GTA4 should have done worse? We had no numbers previously on that game, or on its competition."

Mostly, that it doesn't seem to have the staying power SA and VC had, so I expected it to do worse than they did (okay, maybe not worse than SA after the egg it laid, but I did expect it to do appreciably worse than VC). If we take the GotY poll into account, there's also the fact that relying on GotY has been the perfect recipe for getting burned up until SSBB/GTA4. It's not something I can quite pin down to a single thing, but I'm definitely sure there's something we're overlooking that brought GTA4 to its GotY levels.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/6/2009 2:41:09 PM | message detail
Even though CoD4s percentage isn't going up at a crazy rate, I think this puts it near Halo kind of ASV. Its doing this again 2 supposed great ASVs, and still gaining in percentage at a pretty good rate. I'm really impressed.
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Denzokuken | Posted 5/6/2009 2:41:36 PM | message detail
Hmm...if only Fallout 3 wasn't a lock to be in the division final, COD4 might have just made it out of here. I really doubt it can beat MGS4 with one of those two there, unhindered it might have stood a chance.
plasmabeam | Posted 5/6/2009 2:47:45 PM | message detail
I was wondering today: Is Sheik eligible for a character battle, or is she completely tied to Zelda?

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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/6/2009 2:48:21 PM | message detail

From: plasmabeam | #424
I was wondering today: Is Sheik eligible for a character battle, or is she completely tied to Zelda?


-kingdom hearts spoilers-

Roxas made it.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/6/2009 2:49:55 PM | message detail
I doubt Bacon would allow Sheik as a different character, but if she ever gets in one of these things, she'd probably be weaker than Zelda simply because her name isn't Zelda.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 5/6/2009 2:56:21 PM | message detail
Sora/Roxas is a bit of a different situation from Zelda/Sheik though.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/6/2009 3:06:51 PM | message detail
Arg we're all spoiling the games.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 5/6/2009 3:20:57 PM | message detail
Difference between Portal and Bioshock: People are still talking about Portal and how awesome it was/is. The only time Bioshock is mentioned is when people are trying to hype up Bioshock 2.

Plus, throw in the fact that Portal is absolutely huge all over the internet, including this site (as evidenced by WCC), and there's no real reason to think any other game can finish in second here.

Whoever said Portal has a shot to finish in first has the right idea here!
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transients | Posted 5/6/2009 3:35:20 PM | message detail
I'm kinda skeptical on Portal. I think it'll do well but it's not going to blow Bioshock away.

I also have more faith in LBP than you all do. I have no problem calling that a three-way race while most of you are betting on LBP being a distant fourth. LBP should hold its own there.

I expect MGS4 to clean up though. like I said yesterday, three new IPs and Metal Gear Solid. pretty easy franchise vote there.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/6/2009 3:35:44 PM | message detail
However, the comparison to Mega Man 2 is spot-on. D/P is stronger than Pac-Man, but relatively speaking, I'd say both MM2 and SMG put up bombs of equal caliber.

...You lost me. The difference between MM2's forupack and SMG's is that SMG's actually has strength. MM2's...doesn't. Look at MM2's fourpack. It should've been able to get at least 40%. It didn't. At least SMG can blame Pokemon.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 5/6/2009 3:41:58 PM | message detail
MM2 can somewhat blame the pic after looking at MM3, right?

Riiiight?

or maybe MM3 really is stronger.
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Fayt_Esteed | Posted 5/6/2009 3:49:13 PM | message detail
MM2 can somewhat blame the pic after looking at MM3, right?

Riiiight?


The pic was...what, Mega Man's version of Solid ****?
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/6/2009 3:54:00 PM | message detail
"...You lost me. The difference between MM2's forupack and SMG's is that SMG's actually has strength. MM2's...doesn't. Look at MM2's fourpack. It should've been able to get at least 40%. It didn't. At least SMG can blame Pokemon."

Exactly. What I meant is that both games were supposed to get out and flat-out dominate their polls. Both failed, MM2 showing us that its total crap for these polls, and SMG proving that, while it DOES have some strength, it doesn't go past midcarder. Both HUGELY disappointed, as we expected more from them.

Also, the Solid Mega**** factor makes me lol. It's funny. :)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 5/6/2009 4:07:10 PM | message detail
Congratulations to Nintendogirl for being the third person I've ever put on ignore.

lol balding 40 year old men pretending to be women.
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MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/6/2009 4:08:16 PM | message detail
If you can't beat em, ignore em!
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/6/2009 4:20:27 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bge09/bge09-31.jpg
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transients | Posted 5/6/2009 4:24:11 PM | message detail
LBP wins
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/6/2009 4:25:14 PM | message detail
Neat match pic, I guess. Nothing particularly amazing, but nothing particularly bad, either.

Portal could have used more WCC or cake, though.
MyWorldIsCrono | Posted 5/6/2009 4:26:40 PM | message detail

From: KanzarisKelshen | #439
Portal could have used more WCC or cake, though.


Agreed. At least Bioshock doesn't really stand out, which was its only competition.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/6/2009 4:26:58 PM | message detail
I made those awesome BioShock and Portal pics, and he picks my generic LBP pic?

I hate Bacon so much sometimes.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/6/2009 4:28:15 PM | message detail
For reference:

http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/9144/bioshockbevel.png
http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/5042/portalbevel.png

god dammit bacon I love those
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 5/6/2009 4:29:11 PM | message detail
How the hell did that Portal pic not get picked.

Oh because Bacon doesn't want it to get first place haha
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KanzarisKelshen | Posted 5/6/2009 4:32:30 PM | message detail
"http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/5042/portalbevel.png"

It's official. Bacon for the lose. C'mon, HOW could he NOT pick that kickass picture? Maybe the first round is the boxart round?
ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/6/2009 4:40:34 PM | message detail
He said he PREFERS box art, but he isn't being forced to use it. I personally don't think it matters. If he wants a theme he should enforce the rule or not have a rule at all.
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ZFS | Posted 5/6/2009 4:49:58 PM | message detail
There's nothing wrong with the Portal pic he chose, honestly.

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charmander6000 | Posted 5/6/2009 4:50:13 PM | message detail
I also have more faith in LBP than you all do. I have no problem calling that a three-way race while most of you are betting on LBP being a distant fourth. LBP should hold its own there.

I have it in second, but I agree if the differene between the three games is more than 5% I'll be surprised.
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ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/6/2009 4:51:48 PM | message detail
It's boring. I hate seeing such lifeless pics on the front page.

What's the point in letting users submit pics if he just picks the cover art? He should just make them himself if that's what he's going for.
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greatone10 | Posted 5/6/2009 4:52:14 PM | message detail

From: ZFS | Posted: 5/6/2009 4:49:58 PM | #446
There's nothing wrong with the Portal pic he chose, honestly.


I sort of agree, but I'd rather an original idea get chosen rather than a blatant box art crop.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 5/6/2009 4:52:48 PM | message detail
Time for an ART argument again.

The one he picked is fine, by making pics you know yours aren't going to be chosen all the time even if you think it's better.
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